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Forecasts vs actual

Official forecasts of fertility, population and the economy, checked against what happened. Errors go both ways: in ageing countries fertility projections turned out too optimistic again and again, while some populations grew faster than expected. This page shows where, by how much and in which direction.

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Data as of 1 October 2026

Key numbers

UN 2024 vs actual
37 of 47
countries with 2024–2025 data: fewer births than the UN 2024 medium variant; 11 below the 95% interval
Past UN revisions: births
52%
of country × revision checks (1998–2022): the outcome below the projection; median gap −1%
IMF: next-year GDP growth
−1.1 pp
mean error (actual minus forecast) over 6,404 forecasts; the outcome below the forecast in 57%

World births

millions per year; UN estimates 1950–2023 and projection variants to 2100
World birthsUN estimates: 146 (2012), 132 (2023). UN medium variant 2100: 110; UN low variant 2100: 48.0501001502001950197520002025205020752100
  • UN estimates
  • UN medium variant
  • UN low variant
  • UN 95% interval

In-depth cases

For each case: the archive of official projections and the actual data. The table shows what each projection expected for the latest actual year, what happened, and when the projection expected today's level.

Japan: births — five generations of official projectionsActual (MHLW): 709k (2024). IPSS 2002, medium: 871k (2024); IPSS 2006, medium: 739k (2024); IPSS 2012, medium: 788k (2024); IPSS 2017, medium: 851k (2024); IPSS 2023, medium: 779k (2024)0500k1M1.5M20002010202020302040
  • IPSS 2002, medium
  • IPSS 2006, medium
  • IPSS 2012, medium
  • IPSS 2017, medium
  • IPSS 2023, medium
  • Actual (MHLW)

Japan: births — five generations of official projections

IPSS medium variants 2002–2023 vs actual (all births in Japan incl. foreigners). The 2006 projection ran below actual for years; since 2022 reality is below every projection.

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
IPSS 2002, medium2024871k709k−19%2045 (21 years later)
IPSS 2006, medium2024739k709k−4%2029 (5 years later)
IPSS 2012, medium2024788k709k−10%2036 (12 years later)
IPSS 2017, medium2024851k709k−17%2044 (20 years later)
IPSS 2023, medium2024779k709k−9%2042 (18 years later)
Sources: mhlw.go.jp ipss.go.jp ipss.go.jp ipss.go.jp ipss.go.jp ipss.go.jp

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Japan: fertility — IPSS projections vs actualActual: 1.14 (2025). IPSS 2002, medium: 1.38 (2025); IPSS 2006, medium: 1.23 (2025); IPSS 2012, medium: 1.33 (2025); IPSS 2017, medium: 1.42 (2025); IPSS 2023, medium: 1.27 (2025)0.00.51.01.520002010202020302040
  • IPSS 2002, medium
  • IPSS 2006, medium
  • IPSS 2012, medium
  • IPSS 2017, medium
  • IPSS 2023, medium
  • Actual

Japan: fertility — IPSS projections vs actual

Each new projection started from the current level and assumed a rise. In 2025 the actual was 1.14 vs 1.27 (medium) and 1.12 (low) in the 2023 projection.

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
IPSS 2002, medium20251.381.14−18%not before 2045
IPSS 2006, medium20251.231.14−8%not before 2045
IPSS 2012, medium20251.331.14−14%not before 2045
IPSS 2017, medium20251.421.14−20%not before 2045
IPSS 2023, medium20251.271.14−10%not before 2045
Sources: mhlw.go.jp ipss.go.jp ipss.go.jp ipss.go.jp ipss.go.jp ipss.go.jp

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South Korea: births — Statistics Korea projections vs actualActual (Statistics Korea): 254k (2025). KOSTAT 2006, medium: 375k (2025); KOSTAT 2011, medium: 442k (2025); KOSTAT 2016, medium: 417k (2025); KOSTAT 2019, medium: 335k (2025); KOSTAT 2021, medium: 248k (2025); KOSTAT 2023, medium: 218k (2025)0100k200k300k400k500k20052010201520202025203020352040
  • KOSTAT 2006, medium
  • KOSTAT 2011, medium
  • KOSTAT 2016, medium
  • KOSTAT 2019, medium
  • KOSTAT 2021, medium
  • KOSTAT 2023, medium
  • Actual (Statistics Korea)

South Korea: births — Statistics Korea projections vs actual

The 2011 projection expected 449k births in 2023; actual was 230k. The 2023 projection was too low instead: 218k for 2025 vs 254k actual. Projected births are July–June, actual are calendar years.

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
KOSTAT 2006, medium2025375k254k−32%not before 2040
KOSTAT 2011, medium2025442k254k−42%not before 2040
KOSTAT 2016, medium2025417k254k−39%not before 2040
KOSTAT 2019, medium2025335k254k−24%not before 2040
KOSTAT 2021, medium2025248k254k+3%2022: projection was below actual
KOSTAT 2023, medium2025218k254k+17%2022: projection was below actual
Sources: mods.go.kr lib1.mods.go.kr mods.go.kr mods.go.kr mods.go.kr mods.go.kr mods.go.kr

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South Korea: fertility — projections vs actualActual: 0.80 (2025). KOSTAT 2006, medium: 1.25 (2025); KOSTAT 2011, medium: 1.38 (2025); KOSTAT 2016, medium: 1.28 (2025); KOSTAT 2019, medium: 1.00 (2025); KOSTAT 2021, medium: 0.74 (2025); KOSTAT 2023, medium: 0.65 (2025)0.00.51.01.520052010201520202025203020352040
  • KOSTAT 2006, medium
  • KOSTAT 2011, medium
  • KOSTAT 2016, medium
  • KOSTAT 2019, medium
  • KOSTAT 2021, medium
  • KOSTAT 2023, medium
  • Actual

South Korea: fertility — projections vs actual

Projections from 2006–2016 never allowed values below 1.0, which happened in 2018. Every projection assumes a return to 1.0–1.4.

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
KOSTAT 2006, medium20251.250.80−36%not before 2040
KOSTAT 2011, medium20251.380.80−42%not before 2040
KOSTAT 2016, medium20251.280.80−38%not before 2040
KOSTAT 2019, medium20251.000.80−20%not before 2040
KOSTAT 2021, medium20250.740.80+8%2022: projection was below actual
KOSTAT 2023, medium20250.650.80+23%2022: projection was below actual
Sources: mods.go.kr lib1.mods.go.kr mods.go.kr mods.go.kr mods.go.kr mods.go.kr mods.go.kr

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Taiwan: births — NDC projections vs actualActual (Ministry of the Interior): 108k (2025). NDC 2016, medium: 180k (2025); NDC 2018, medium: 171k (2025); NDC 2020, medium: 150k (2025); NDC 2022, medium: 143k (2025); NDC 2024, medium: 130k (2025)050k100k150k200k250k201020202030204020502060
  • NDC 2016, medium
  • NDC 2018, medium
  • NDC 2020, medium
  • NDC 2022, medium
  • NDC 2024, medium
  • Actual (Ministry of the Interior)

Taiwan: births — NDC projections vs actual

2025 births were 107.8k: 40% below the 2016 projection and 17% below the one published in 2024. The 100k mark was expected in 2054 by the 2020–2022 editions; the new edition says 2026.

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
NDC 2016, medium2025180k108k−40%2057 (32 years later)
NDC 2018, medium2025171k108k−37%2054 (29 years later)
NDC 2020, medium2025150k108k−28%2051 (26 years later)
NDC 2022, medium2025143k108k−25%2051 (26 years later)
NDC 2024, medium2025130k108k−17%2036 (11 years later)
Sources: ris.gov.tw web.archive.org web.archive.org web.archive.org web.archive.org web.archive.org

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Taiwan: fertility — projections vs actualActual: 0.70 (2025). NDC 2016, medium: 1.20 (2025); NDC 2018, medium: 1.13 (2025); NDC 2020, medium: 1.01 (2025); NDC 2022, medium: 0.95 (2025); NDC 2024, medium: 0.87 (2025)0.00.51.01.5201020202030204020502060
  • NDC 2016, medium
  • NDC 2018, medium
  • NDC 2020, medium
  • NDC 2022, medium
  • NDC 2024, medium
  • Actual

Taiwan: fertility — projections vs actual

The 0.695 TFR in 2025 is below every low variant of every projection.

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
NDC 2016, medium20251.200.70−42%not before 2060
NDC 2018, medium20251.130.70−38%not before 2060
NDC 2020, medium20251.010.70−31%not before 2060
NDC 2022, medium20250.950.70−27%not before 2060
NDC 2024, medium20250.870.70−20%not before 2060
Sources: ris.gov.tw web.archive.org web.archive.org web.archive.org web.archive.org web.archive.org

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China: the promised baby boom after the one-child policyActual (NBS): 7.92M (2025). NHFPC 2017, high: 19M (2020); NHFPC 2017, low: 17M (2020)05M10M15M20M201520202025
  • NHFPC 2017, high
  • NHFPC 2017, low
  • Actual (NBS)

China: the promised baby boom after the one-child policy

Officials expected 17–19 million births a year in 2016–2020 and a TFR of 1.8 by 2020. Actual: 12 million in 2020 and 7.92 million in 2025; the population peak expected around 2030 came in 2021.

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
NHFPC 2017, high202019M12M−37%projection ends 2020
NHFPC 2017, low202017M12M−29%projection ends 2020
Sources: stats.gov.cn nbd.com.cn

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China: births — UN projections vs actualActual (NBS): 7.92M (2025). UN WPP 2022, medium: 10.4M (2025); UN WPP 2024, medium: 8.71M (2025)05M10M15M20M20202030204020502060
  • UN WPP 2022, medium
  • UN WPP 2024, medium
  • Actual (NBS)

China: births — UN projections vs actual

In 2022 the UN expected 10.4 million births in 2025 and a fall below 8 million only in 2054. It happened in 2025: 7.92 million.

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
UN WPP 2022, medium202510.4M7.92M−24%2054 (29 years later)
UN WPP 2024, medium20258.71M7.92M−9%2050 (25 years later)
Sources: stats.gov.cn raw.githubusercontent.com ourworldindata.org

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India: fertility — UN projections vs actualActual (SRS): 1.90 (2023). UN WPP 2010: 2.24 (2023); UN WPP 2015: 2.21 (2023); UN WPP 2019: 2.12 (2023); UN WPP 2022: 2.00 (2023); UN WPP 2024: 1.98 (2023)0.00.51.01.52.02.52010201520202025203020352040
  • UN WPP 2010
  • UN WPP 2015
  • UN WPP 2019
  • UN WPP 2022
  • UN WPP 2024
  • Actual (SRS)

India: fertility — UN projections vs actual

UN revisions 2010–2019 expected India to fall below replacement in 2025–2035. The SRS shows 2.0 already in 2020. Values for 2010–2019 are five-year averages.

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
UN WPP 201020232.241.90−15%not before 2032
UN WPP 201520232.211.90−14%not before 2032
UN WPP 201920232.121.90−10%not before 2027
UN WPP 202220232.001.90−5%not before 2030
UN WPP 202420231.981.90−4%2030 (7 years later)
Sources: en.wikipedia.org raw.githubusercontent.com raw.githubusercontent.com raw.githubusercontent.com raw.githubusercontent.com ourworldindata.org

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Nigeria: fertility — UN projections vs surveysDHS/MIS surveys: 4.80 (2023). UN WPP 2012: 5.36 (2023); UN WPP 2015: 5.00 (2023); UN WPP 2019: 5.01 (2023); UN WPP 2022: 5.06 (2023); UN WPP 2024: 4.48 (2023)0.02.04.06.08.02010201520202025203020352040
  • UN WPP 2012
  • UN WPP 2015
  • UN WPP 2019
  • UN WPP 2022
  • UN WPP 2024
  • DHS/MIS surveys

Nigeria: fertility — UN projections vs surveys

Even in Africa fertility fell faster than the 2012–2019 UN revisions expected; the 2024 revision went below the 2023–24 survey instead.

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
UN WPP 201220235.364.80−10%not before 2027
UN WPP 201520235.004.80−4%2027 (4 years later)
UN WPP 201920235.014.80−4%2027 (4 years later)
UN WPP 202220235.064.80−5%2027 (4 years later)
UN WPP 202420234.484.80+7%2020: projection was below actual
Sources: api.dhsprogram.com raw.githubusercontent.com raw.githubusercontent.com raw.githubusercontent.com raw.githubusercontent.com raw.githubusercontent.com

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World: how the UN revised its population projectionWorld population projected for 2050 and 2100 in each UN revision. Projections rose until 2015 and have fallen since: 11.2 bn → 10.2 bn for 2100.8 bn9 bn10 bn11 bn12 bn200020052010201520202025
  • Projection for 2100
  • Projection for 2050

World: how the UN revised its population projection

World population projected for 2050 and 2100 in each UN revision. Projections rose until 2015 and have fallen since: 11.2 bn → 10.2 bn for 2100.

UN revisionProjection for 2100Projection for 2050
20029.06 bn8.92 bn
2004—9.08 bn
2006—9.19 bn
2008—9.10 bn
201010.10 bn9.30 bn
201210.85 bn9.55 bn
201511.21 bn9.73 bn
201711.18 bn9.77 bn
201910.88 bn9.70 bn
202210.35 bn9.70 bn
202410.18 bn9.66 bn

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USA: fertility in Social Security reports vs actualActual (CDC): 1.60 (2024). SSA 2010: 2.03 (2024); SSA 2015: 2.04 (2024); SSA 2020: 1.82 (2024); SSA 2024: 1.67 (2024)0.00.51.01.52.02.520102020203020402050
  • SSA 2010
  • SSA 2015
  • SSA 2020
  • SSA 2024
  • SSA 2026
  • Actual (CDC)

USA: fertility in Social Security reports vs actual

Social Security trustees kept long-run fertility at 2.0 until the 2023 report; the 2015 report expected 2.04 in 2024 — actual 1.60. Only in 2026 was it cut to 1.75.

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
SSA 201020242.031.60−21%not before 2030
SSA 201520242.041.60−22%not before 2030
SSA 202020241.821.60−12%not before 2030
SSA 202420241.671.60−4%not before 2030
SSA 20262024—1.60—2026 (2 years later)
Sources: cdc.gov ssa.gov ssa.gov ssa.gov ssa.gov ssa.gov

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USA: births — Census Bureau projections vs actualActual (CDC): 3.61M (2025). Census Bureau 2012: 4.41M (2025); Census Bureau 2017: 4.16M (2025); Census Bureau 2023: 3.64M (2025)01M2M3M4M5M2010201520202025203020352040
  • Census Bureau 2012
  • Census Bureau 2017
  • Census Bureau 2023
  • Actual (CDC)

USA: births — Census Bureau projections vs actual

The 2012 projection expected 4.41 million births in 2024; actual 3.63 million. The 2060 population projection fell from 420 million (2012) to 364 million (2023).

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
Census Bureau 201220254.41M3.61M−18%not before 2030
Census Bureau 201720254.16M3.61M−13%not before 2030
Census Bureau 202320253.64M3.61M−1%not before 2030
Sources: cdc.gov www2.census.gov www2.census.gov www2.census.gov

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UK: fertility — ONS projections vs actualActual (ONS): 1.40 (2024). ONS 2012-based: 1.89 (2024); ONS 2016-based: 1.79 (2024); ONS 2018-based: 1.66 (2024); ONS 2020-based: 1.53 (2024); ONS 2022-based: 1.43 (2024)0.00.51.01.52.020102020203020402050
  • ONS 2012-based
  • ONS 2016-based
  • ONS 2018-based
  • ONS 2020-based
  • ONS 2022-based
  • ONS 2024-based
  • Actual (ONS)

UK: fertility — ONS projections vs actual

The 2014-based projection expected 1.87 in 2024; actual 1.40. The long-run assumption fell from 1.89 to 1.42.

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
ONS 2012-based20241.891.40−26%not before 2037
ONS 2016-based20241.791.40−22%not before 2041
ONS 2018-based20241.661.40−16%not before 2043
ONS 2020-based20241.531.40−8%not before 2045
ONS 2022-based20241.431.40−2%not before 2047
ONS 2024-based2024—1.40—2025 (1 year later)
Sources: ons.gov.uk ons.gov.uk ons.gov.uk ons.gov.uk ons.gov.uk ons.gov.uk

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Canada: fertility — Statistics Canada projections vs actualActual: 1.26 (2025). StatCan 2014, medium: 1.67 (2025); StatCan 2022, medium: 1.37 (2025); StatCan 2024, medium: 1.29 (2025)0.00.51.01.52.020102020203020402050
  • StatCan 2014, medium
  • StatCan 2022, medium
  • StatCan 2024, medium
  • StatCan 2026, medium
  • Actual

Canada: fertility — Statistics Canada projections vs actual

The 2014 medium assumption was 1.67; actual 1.26 in 2024–2025, below even the low scenario since 2018.

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
StatCan 2014, medium20251.671.26−25%not before 2031
StatCan 2022, medium20251.371.26−8%not before 2043
StatCan 2024, medium20251.291.26−2%2027 (2 years later)
StatCan 2026, medium2025—1.26—2027 (2 years later)
Sources: www150.statcan.gc.ca www150.statcan.gc.ca www150.statcan.gc.ca www150.statcan.gc.ca www150.statcan.gc.ca

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Australia: fertility in Treasury Intergenerational ReportsActual (financial year): 1.49 (2024). IGR 2010: 1.90 (2024); IGR 2015: 1.90 (2024); IGR 2021: 1.69 (2024); IGR 2023: 1.66 (2024)0.00.51.01.52.02.5201020202030204020502060
  • IGR 2010
  • IGR 2015
  • IGR 2021
  • IGR 2023
  • IGR 2026
  • Actual (financial year)

Australia: fertility in Treasury Intergenerational Reports

The 2010 and 2015 reports assumed 1.9; actual 1.48. The long-run assumption fell from 1.62 to 1.34 only in the 2026 report. Financial years, plotted at the end year.

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
IGR 201020241.901.49−22%not before 2050
IGR 201520241.901.49−22%not before 2055
IGR 202120241.691.49−12%not before 2060
IGR 202320241.661.49−10%not before 2060
IGR 20262024—1.49—2026 (2 years later)
Sources: treasury.gov.au treasury.gov.au treasury.gov.au treasury.gov.au treasury.gov.au

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Finland: births — Statistics Finland projections vs actualActual: 45.8k (2025). StatFin 2009: 61.1k (2025); StatFin 2012: 60.5k (2025); StatFin 2015: 56.6k (2025); StatFin 2018: 48.1k (2025); StatFin 2021: 48.4k (2025); StatFin 2024: 44.1k (2025)020k40k60k80k2010201520202025203020352040
  • StatFin 2009
  • StatFin 2012
  • StatFin 2015
  • StatFin 2018
  • StatFin 2021
  • StatFin 2024
  • Actual

Finland: births — Statistics Finland projections vs actual

Each projection froze the latest fertility rate. The 2012 projection expected 60.8k births in 2024; there were 43.7k. Births are rising slightly in 2025–2026.

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
StatFin 2009202561.1k45.8k−25%not before 2040
StatFin 2012202560.5k45.8k−24%not before 2040
StatFin 2015202556.6k45.8k−19%not before 2040
StatFin 2018202548.1k45.8k−5%not before 2040
StatFin 2021202548.4k45.8k−5%not before 2040
StatFin 2024202544.1k45.8k+4%2024: projection was below actual
Sources: pxdata.stat.fi pxdata.stat.fi

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Italy: births — ISTAT projections vs actualActual (ISTAT): 355k (2025). ISTAT 2011: 513k (2025); ISTAT 2018: 452k (2025); ISTAT 2020: 408k (2025); ISTAT 2022: 395k (2025); ISTAT 2024: 372k (2025); ISTAT 2025: 355k (2025)0200k400k600k20102015202020252030
  • ISTAT 2011
  • ISTAT 2018
  • ISTAT 2020
  • ISTAT 2022
  • ISTAT 2024
  • ISTAT 2025
  • Actual (ISTAT)

Italy: births — ISTAT projections vs actual

The 2011-based projection expected about 513k births in 2025; there were 355k. The 2011 series is a proxy (residents aged 0 on 1 January).

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
ISTAT 20112025513k355k−31%not before 2030
ISTAT 20182025452k355k−21%not before 2030
ISTAT 20202025408k355k−13%not before 2030
ISTAT 20222025395k355k−10%not before 2030
ISTAT 20242025372k355k−4%not before 2030
ISTAT 20252025355k355k0%2026 (1 year later)
Sources: esploradati.istat.it web.archive.org web.archive.org web.archive.org web.archive.org web.archive.org demo.istat.it

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EU: births — Eurostat projections vs actualActual (Eurostat): 3.46M (2025). EUROPOP2013: 4.1M (2025); EUROPOP2015: 4.26M (2025); EUROPOP2019: 3.96M (2025); EUROPOP2023: 4M (2025); EUROPOP2025: 3.46M (2025)01M2M3M4M5M20102020203020402050
  • EUROPOP2013
  • EUROPOP2015
  • EUROPOP2019
  • EUROPOP2023
  • EUROPOP2025
  • Actual (Eurostat)

EU: births — Eurostat projections vs actual

EUROPOP2015 expected 4.27 million births in 2024; there were 3.55 million. EU-27 (2020 borders).

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
EUROPOP201320254.1M3.46M−16%not before 2050
EUROPOP201520254.26M3.46M−19%not before 2050
EUROPOP201920253.96M3.46M−13%not before 2050
EUROPOP202320254M3.46M−13%not before 2050
EUROPOP202520253.46M3.46M0%2026 (1 year later)
Sources: ec.europa.eu web.archive.org web.archive.org ec.europa.eu ec.europa.eu ec.europa.eu
Germany: births — Destatis projections vs actualActual (Destatis): 654k (2025). Destatis 13th (2015): 685k (2025); Destatis 14th (2019): 767k (2025); Destatis 15th (2022): 771k (2025); Destatis 16th (2025): 650k (2025)0200k400k600k800k20102020203020402050
  • Destatis 13th (2015)
  • Destatis 14th (2019)
  • Destatis 15th (2022)
  • Destatis 16th (2025)
  • Actual (Destatis)

Germany: births — Destatis projections vs actual

The main variant published at the end of 2022 expected 771k births in 2025; there were 654k. Variants: moderate fertility and migration.

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
Destatis 13th (2015)2025685k654k−4%2029 (4 years later)
Destatis 14th (2019)2025767k654k−15%not before 2050
Destatis 15th (2022)2025771k654k−15%not before 2050
Destatis 16th (2025)2025650k654k+1%2025: projection was below actual
Sources: destatis.de destatis.de destatis.de destatis.de destatis.de

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Russia: fertility — Rosstat projections, targets and actualActual (Rosstat): 1.40 (2024). Rosstat 2018, medium: 1.63 (2024); National project target (2018): 1.70 (2024); Rosstat 2019, medium: 1.43 (2024); Rosstat 2023, medium: 1.32 (2024)0.00.51.01.52.020152020202520302035
  • Rosstat 2018, medium
  • National project target (2018)
  • Rosstat 2019, medium
  • Rosstat 2023, medium
  • Unified plan target (2025)
  • Actual (Rosstat)

Russia: fertility — Rosstat projections, targets and actual

Targets: 1.87 by 2020, then 1.7 by 2024; actual in 2024 was 1.40. New targets: 1.6 by 2030 and 1.8 by 2036. Since spring 2025 Rosstat has not published monthly birth data.

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
Rosstat 2018, medium20241.631.40−14%not before 2030
National project target (2018)20241.701.40−18%not before 2024
Rosstat 2019, medium20241.431.40−2%not before 2030
Rosstat 2023, medium20241.321.40+6%2023: projection was below actual
Unified plan target (2025)2024—1.40—not before 2035
Sources: rosstat.gov.ru web.archive.org static.government.ru rosstat.gov.ru rosstat.gov.ru static.government.ru

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Russia: births — Rosstat projections vs actualActual (Rosstat): 1.22M (2024). Rosstat 2018, medium: 1.44M (2024); Rosstat 2019, medium: 1.25M (2024); Rosstat 2023, medium: 1.17M (2024)0500k1M1.5M2M20152020202520302035
  • Rosstat 2018, medium
  • Rosstat 2019, medium
  • Rosstat 2023, medium
  • Actual (Rosstat)

Russia: births — Rosstat projections vs actual

The last official annual total is 2024 (1.22 million, provisional). Rosstat has not published 2025 data.

ProjectionYearExpectedActualGapToday's level expected in
Rosstat 2018, medium20241.44M1.22M−15%not before 2030
Rosstat 2019, medium20241.25M1.22M−2%2025 (1 year later)
Rosstat 2023, medium20241.17M1.22M+4%2024: projection was below actual
Sources: rosstat.gov.ru web.archive.org rosstat.gov.ru rosstat.gov.ru

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UN 2024 vs actual

Medium variant of the UN projection published in July 2024 versus births reported by national statistics.

In 37 of 47 countries with data for the latest year, reality is below the UN medium variant; in 11, below the lower 95% bound.

CountryYearUN (medium)ActualGapBelow 95% interval?
Singapore202549.8k29.9k−40%yes
Colombia2025693k442k−36%yes
Romania2025*179k134k−25%yes
Tunisia2024164k126k−23%yes
Thailand2024582k462k−21%yes
Hong Kong202539k31.1k−20%no
Lithuania202522.1k17.6k−20%yes
Poland2025297k238k−20%yes
Egypt20242.44M1.97M−19%yes
Argentina2024507k413k−18%yes
Bulgaria202560.4k50.2k−17%yes
Kazakhstan2025395k335k−15%no
Turkey20251.05M895k−15%no
Taiwan2025125k108k−14%no
Hungary2025*84.3k73.3k−13%yes
Belarus202562.3k54.3k−13%no
Czechia2025*86.9k77.6k−11%no
Chile2024*172k154k−10%no
Costa Rica2025*50.6k45.4k−10%no
Uruguay202433.2k29.9k−10%no
China20258.71M7.92M−9%no
Germany2025708k654k−8%no
Brazil20242.57M2.38M−8%no
Italy2025*383k355k−7%no
European Union (27)2025*3.69M3.46M−6%no
Puerto Rico2025*19.1k18k−6%no
Malaysia2024440k415k−6%no
Japan2024751k709k−6%no
Australia2025*304k290k−5%no
United Kingdom2025680k650k−4%no
Switzerland202581.8k78.2k−4%no
Netherlands2025174k167k−4%no
Greece2025*68.2k65.4k−4%no
Russia2024*1.27M1.22M−4%no
Spain2025*330k321k−3%no
United States2025*3.66M3.61M−2%no
New Zealand2025*58.5k57.7k−1%no
Sweden202597k97.5k+1%no
Austria202575.4k76.1k+1%no
France2025635k644k+1%no
Portugal202585.7k87.8k+2%no
Canada2025*361k373k+3%no
Ireland2025*52.6k54.3k+3%no
South Korea2025246k254k+3%no
Finland202543.9k45.8k+4%no
Norway202553k55.4k+5%no
Israel2025171k182k+6%no

* provisional data. National definitions can differ from the UN's (e.g. registration year rather than year of birth); series that are not comparable are excluded. CSV

UN World Population Prospects: revisions and errors

For each revision: the latest period for which almost all countries already have actual data. The median is the typical error for one country; the shares show which way the errors went.

IndicatorReleasePeriodCountriesMedian, actual vs expectedActual lowerActual higherOff by more than 10%World
PopulationUN 19982023222+2.9%44%56%64%+5.1%
PopulationUN 20002023223+3.1%43%57%61%+3.8%
PopulationUN 20022023223+5.3%40%61%56%+4.7%
PopulationUN 20042023223+3.7%39%61%50%+4%
PopulationUN 20062023225+2.9%38%62%44%+2.7%
PopulationUN 20082023226+1.8%43%57%41%+2.7%
PopulationUN 20102023227+1.3%43%57%34%+2.9%
PopulationUN 20122023232+0.4%47%53%30%+1.9%
PopulationUN 20152023232+0.7%44%56%26%+1.3%
PopulationUN 20172023232+0.4%47%53%20%+0.7%
PopulationUN 20192023234+0.7%45%55%16%+0.8%
PopulationUN 20222023237+0.2%47%53%8%+0.6%
BirthsUN 19982015–2020180+6.1%38%62%69%+9.1%
BirthsUN 20002015–2020183+4.1%43%57%68%+3.8%
BirthsUN 20022015–2020188+6.4%39%60%69%+4.4%
BirthsUN 20042015–2020188+4.5%42%58%69%+3.5%
BirthsUN 20062015–2020192+3.8%43%57%66%+2.9%
BirthsUN 20082015–2020193+2.5%45%55%61%+3.6%
BirthsUN 20102015–2020194+0.3%49%52%60%+4.4%
BirthsUN 20122015–2020200−0.5%51%50%49%+1.7%
BirthsUN 20152015–2020200−0.6%51%49%39%+0.5%
BirthsUN 20172015–2020200−1%56%43%36%+0.4%
BirthsUN 20192020–202536−8.1%89%11%44%—
BirthsUN 20222023237−1.6%60%39%29%−1.6%
Total fertility rateUN 19982015–2020180+1.4%48%52%63%+7.4%
Total fertility rateUN 20002015–2020183+0.3%49%51%62%+1.1%
Total fertility rateUN 20022015–2020188+0.7%47%53%61%+2.1%
Total fertility rateUN 20042015–2020188+0.6%47%53%57%+3.2%
Total fertility rateUN 20062015–2020192+1.4%45%55%57%+3.7%
Total fertility rateUN 20082015–2020193+2.4%44%56%52%+2.7%
Total fertility rateUN 20102015–2020194+1.1%47%53%52%+3%
Total fertility rateUN 20122015–2020200−2.1%56%44%41%+0.4%
Total fertility rateUN 20152015–2020200−1.3%54%46%36%−0.5%
Total fertility rateUN 20172015–2020200−1.8%57%43%28%−0.5%
Total fertility rateUN 20192020–202528−10.8%93%7%61%—
Total fertility rateUN 20222023237−1.1%60%31%23%−2.6%
By country: Actual vs expected for several UN revisions; minus means the outcome was below the projection. Each revision uses the same period as in the summary above.
CountryPopulationTotal fertility rate
UN 1998
2023		UN 2006
2023		UN 2012
2023		UN 2022
2023		UN 1998
2015–2020		UN 2006
2015–2020		UN 2012
2015–2020		UN 2022
2023
World+5.1%+2.7%+1.9%+0.6%+7.4%+3.7%+0.4%−2.6%
Afghanistan−4.2%−6.8%+9.1%−1.9%+19.7%−13.7%+33.5%+9.8%
Albania−25.2%−18.9%−14%−0.7%−30%−20.5%−17%−1.7%
Algeria+1.5%+9.9%+1.5%+1.2%+44.9%+40.7%+19.6%0%
American Samoa−65.1%−45.6%−19%+8.2%———+2.4%
Andorra−45.7%+8.4%−5%+1%———−5.6%
Angola+53.1%+41.1%+27.5%+0.2%+21.2%−0.8%+2.7%0%
Anguilla+33.8%−5.5%−7%−9.4%———+7.1%
Antigua and Barbuda+25.1%−5.9%−5.9%−1%——−27.7%0%
Argentina−1.9%+0.1%+1.6%−0.5%−1.6%−0.6%−2.5%−19.4%
Armenia−25.1%+0.5%−1.6%+5.9%−14.9%+9%−8.6%+8.6%
Aruba−54.5%+1%+1.4%+1.5%—−6.9%+6.6%+35.2%
Australia+16%+10.2%+0.4%0%−9%−6.6%−7.7%+2.4%
Austria+11%+6.1%+3.6%+1.9%−6.2%−0.2%−2.1%−11%
Azerbaijan+10.9%+9.3%+1%−0.9%+1.8%+4.6%+4.1%+1.2%
Bahamas−1.8%+2.2%−5.4%−3.2%−31.4%−23.5%−23%−0.1%
Bahrain+86.8%+65.2%+2.1%+5.7%−7%+0.1%−1.2%+2.1%
Bangladesh−2.2%−14.7%−1.8%−0.9%+4.8%−10.7%+7.5%+11.7%
Barbados−4.5%−7%−5.3%+0.1%+0.6%+9.2%−7.6%+5%
Belarus−4.8%+3.7%+2.7%−4%−4.7%+20%−0.4%−19.9%
Belgium+17.6%+9.3%+2.2%+0.2%−5.8%−2.2%−12.6%−13.4%
Belize+14.4%+8.5%+0.5%+0.1%+9.4%−4.7%−8.7%+1.4%
Benin+32.1%+2.1%+6.4%+2.9%+32.7%+15.2%+12.9%−5.4%
Bermuda−13.6%−1.9%−2.5%+1%———+2.1%
Bhutan−79%−2.2%−7.2%−0.1%−59%−20.9%−22.6%+5.2%
Bolivia−4.1%+1.3%−1.6%−1.2%−1%+0.4%−9.2%0%
Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba——+35.7%+10.1%———−10.7%
Bosnia and Herzegovina−26.7%−15.9%−15.5%−0.8%−13.6%+10.5%+6.3%+10.8%
Botswana+13.2%+11.4%+12.4%−7.3%+9.2%+17.3%+20.6%+0.6%
Brazil−1.7%−6.3%−1.8%−2.4%−17.8%−16.2%−1.4%−0.1%
British Virgin Islands+10%+49.3%+25.9%+23.6%———+1.7%
Brunei+2%−10.4%−2.1%+1.4%−11.1%−4.4%−2.5%0%
Bulgaria−4.7%+1.7%+2.2%+1.6%+10.7%+12.3%−3.4%+9.7%
Burkina Faso+3.5%+1.7%+3.5%−1%+12.1%−1.5%−3.9%−8.3%
Burundi+22.6%−3.8%+0.1%+3.4%+33.8%−13.3%−3.6%0%
Cambodia+7.9%−8%−1.4%+2.8%−4.5%+1.4%+0.3%+13.1%
Cameroon+11.4%+16.2%+0.2%−1%+32.2%+41.9%+6.7%+0.5%
Canada+5.1%+5.1%+1.9%+1.3%−14.5%−1.7%−10.4%−8.2%
Cape Verde−20%−28.1%−4.3%−12.8%−18.8%−34.5%−14.2%−18.1%
Cayman Islands−2.1%+33.5%+13.5%+5.4%———+27%
Central African Republic−6.6%−9.2%−7.8%−10.3%+79.3%+66.3%+53%+3.1%
Chad+44.5%+16.3%+12.5%+5.7%+64.7%+22.4%+12.8%0%
Chile+2.1%+3.3%+3.3%+0.2%−28%−16.3%−13.3%−23.7%
China−3.3%−1%−1.5%−0.2%−15.2%−11.7%−4.9%−16%
Colombia−10.6%−4.3%−3%+0.5%−24.6%−14.1%−20.7%−2.6%
Comoros−25.6%−27.6%−7.1%−0.2%+49.4%+27.1%−4.3%+0.8%
Cook Islands−39%+24.9%−34.1%−16.6%———−7.3%
Costa Rica−11.9%−6.2%−6.4%−2%−27.7%−9.5%−3%−12.4%
Croatia−7.9%−9.7%−5.8%−2.8%−14.4%−2.6%−6.5%+1.4%
Cuba−6.5%−2%−0.6%−1.6%−10%−3.4%+9%−1.2%
Curaçao——+6.4%−3.5%——−22.1%−34.6%
Cyprus+50.3%+34.3%+7.8%+6.7%−29.8%−20.7%−9%+6%
Czechia+12.5%+8.4%−1.6%+3%+26.1%+26.9%+3.9%−14.7%
Côte d'Ivoire+37%+22.4%+23%+7.9%+60.8%+36.3%+2.9%−0.1%
DR Congo+6.1%+4%+20.7%+3.5%+44%+4.8%+15.6%0%
Denmark+13.1%+6.9%+1.7%+0.6%−7.6%−6.6%−8.6%−12.1%
Djibouti+15.8%+6.9%+15.2%+1.5%−19.8%−7.6%−7.2%−4.1%
Dominica−8.9%−2.6%−11.8%−8.9%———−6.3%
Dominican Republic+3%−5.1%−2%0%+8.8%−4.8%+1.8%+1.4%
Ecuador+3.1%+13.8%−0.7%−1.2%−4.1%−5.7%−13.7%−8.6%
Egypt+22.4%+19.1%+21%+1.6%+49.8%+25.5%+19.9%−3.3%
El Salvador−28.7%−24.4%−5.9%−0.9%−18%−19.9%−8.6%0%
Equatorial Guinea+141.7%+149.4%+89.2%+7.8%+15.6%−2.7%+3.5%0%
Eritrea−46.3%−53%−58.3%−7.4%+16%+1.2%−5.1%0%
Estonia+19.3%+8.3%+9.6%+3.3%+13.9%+2.3%−2.2%−19.5%
Eswatini−28.6%−0.1%−12.9%+1.7%−3.3%+5.5%−2.1%+0.1%
Ethiopia+16.6%+7.1%+7.9%+1.7%−0.3%+2.8%+9.8%+0.3%
Falkland Islands+40.2%+7.4%+12.8%−8.3%———+6.3%
Faroe Islands+48.1%+2%+7.8%+2.7%———−17.2%
Fiji−14.7%+2.9%−0.2%−1.3%+16.6%+1.2%−1%−6.4%
Finland+6.4%+2.7%+0.3%+1%−23%−20.9%−21.3%−8.5%
France+7.8%+1.6%−1.5%+2.6%−5.4%+0.2%−6.4%−8.2%
French Guiana−23.2%+7.2%−3.5%−2.8%—+36.1%+27.8%−1%
French Polynesia−11.5%−10.4%−7.4%−9%−20.3%−19.3%−15.7%−10.7%
Gabon+29.7%+49.8%+19.5%+2%+7.2%+49.3%+2.8%+7.6%
Gambia+29.3%+10.6%+7.5%−2.7%+24.9%+22.5%−17.5%−11.1%
Georgia−26.3%−4.7%−7.8%+2.1%+11.3%+45.7%+16.4%−11.8%
Germany+4.9%+4.8%+4%+1.5%+3.5%+8.5%+6.5%−6.1%
Ghana−4.8%+8.7%+7.6%−1%+6.3%+21.5%+3.4%−1.7%
Gibraltar+77.7%+31.3%+31.2%+17.7%———+3.7%
Greece+2.7%−9%−7.3%−1%−4.6%−4.9%−13.7%−3%
Greenland−5.6%−11.8%−1%−1.3%———+0.3%
Grenada+13%+8.8%+7.9%−7.2%—−26.3%−25.2%−24.3%
Guadeloupe−33.2%−21.3%−22.5%−4.9%+12%+8.8%+5%+3.5%
Guam−25.4%−19.8%−10.7%−3.7%+43.9%+32.9%+30.8%+10.1%
Guatemala−5.3%−5.6%−7.2%+0.2%−7.6%−15.5%−21%−0.3%
Guernsey———+0.8%———−7.3%
Guinea+18.9%+3.6%−3.4%+1.5%+33.1%+6.9%+4.2%0%
Guinea-Bissau+14.6%−21.6%+0.6%+0.1%+7.3%−31.6%−7%−0.1%
Guyana−19.6%+19.8%−1%+1.5%+22.7%+21.1%+7.5%+2.8%
Haiti−0.3%−3.2%−0.4%−0.8%−0.1%+1.7%+2.1%−2.8%
Holy See−0.8%−36.4%−38.2%−4.1%———0%
Honduras+2.9%+13%+9.5%+0.5%+3.4%0%−5.1%+8.4%
Hong Kong−3.9%−9.3%−3%−0.7%−29.2%+6.5%−8.7%−7%
Hungary+7.5%+1.8%−0.4%−4.6%+4.7%+9.8%+3.4%−6%
Iceland+19%+16%+6.5%+3.3%−9.9%−7.3%−14.9%−10.5%
India+10%+1.2%+3.2%+0.7%+4.3%−5.7%−7.4%−1.2%
Indonesia+4.5%+5.1%+1.5%+1.3%+7.2%+19.9%+1.4%−0.3%
Iran−2%+4.6%+4.6%+1.6%−8.4%+1.3%+1.9%+1.1%
Iraq+13.5%+8.2%+2.9%−1%+10.3%+10.2%−3.2%−4.4%
Ireland+19%+0.1%+2.1%+2.8%−15.2%−4.8%−11.4%−9.3%
Isle of Man−15.4%+7.5%−7.8%−0.6%———−1.2%
Israel+13.6%+8.4%+4.6%+0.9%+46.6%+27.4%+10.1%−3%
Italy+14.6%+2.1%−3.1%+1.1%−7.3%−9.5%−16.4%−7.9%
Jamaica−10.8%−1.9%−2.4%+0.5%−32.1%−35.1%−34%+1.6%
Japan+1.7%+1.3%+0.2%+0.9%−18.2%+5.9%−7.3%−8.1%
Jersey———−7.3%———−8.1%
Jordan−1.8%+46.5%+35.2%+0.9%−6.3%+16.6%−0.7%−3.9%
Kazakhstan+15.7%+20.3%+13.6%+3.7%+35.4%+34.9%+20.4%−0.4%
Kenya+35.2%+0.7%−2.5%+0.4%+52.4%−11.6%−12.5%−1%
Kiribati+14.2%+10.5%+11.3%−0.8%——+18.4%−2.7%
Kosovo———+2.2%———+2.5%
Kuwait+66.1%+25%+13.4%+12.3%−0.1%+4.3%−16.4%−26.2%
Kyrgyzstan+18.6%+15.2%+10.4%+5%+51.3%+49.7%+9.3%−3.7%
Laos−17.6%+1.9%−4.4%+0.4%−29%+2.7%−2.1%+0.5%
Latvia−4%−10.3%−2.8%+2.8%+13.5%+20%−0.9%−15.6%
Lebanon+33.9%+22.3%+16.6%+7.8%+12.3%+16%+59.4%+8.8%
Lesotho−31.8%+5.4%+1.1%−0.8%−12.8%+8.8%+8.2%−8.5%
Liberia−12.9%−14%+0.6%+1.4%+0.8%−28.6%−2.4%0%
Libya−13.3%−7.8%+4.3%+6.1%+24.1%+15.1%+21.3%0%
Liechtenstein−2.8%−0.7%0%0%———+3%
Lithuania−16.7%−9%−1.8%+5%+7.1%+20.5%+3.4%−26.3%
Luxembourg+43.3%+19.5%+11.7%+1.6%−22%−19.2%−18.7%−0.4%
Macao+35.3%+34.4%+9.7%+1.4%−36.9%−0.2%−15.5%−41.4%
Madagascar+12%+8.4%+3.6%+2.9%+16.8%+12.4%+1%+6.4%
Malawi+10.5%+3.1%−2.2%+0.8%−10.7%−11.3%−19.1%−3.8%
Malaysia+16%+6.1%+2.9%+2.4%−11.5%−14.5%−2.5%−12.6%
Maldives+8%+31.4%+30.3%+1%−40.9%−24.2%−14.4%−5.5%
Mali+16.8%+21.6%+13.4%+2%+37%+10.5%−8.4%−3%
Malta+24.3%+24%+21.9%−0.4%−34%−13.3%−8.3%−9.6%
Marshall Islands−68%−49.9%−30.4%−7.5%———+10.7%
Martinique−22.6%−14.5%−16.1%−5.7%+6.2%+7.6%+11.2%+5.9%
Mauritania+9.4%+14.4%+2.8%+3.3%+37.5%+46.7%+15.5%+10%
Mauritius−6.8%−8.7%−0.4%−2%−28.3%−26.3%−8.9%−10.4%
Mayotte——+11.7%−6%——+32.8%+7.3%
Mexico+1.2%+5.4%−4.4%+1%−4.7%+8.2%−0.5%+6.7%
Micronesia−38.5%−8.6%−0.5%−2.3%—+1%−4.4%+4.1%
Moldova−32.4%−13.2%−5.8%−10.7%+1.3%+23.5%+25%−3.7%
Monaco−3.3%+11.6%−4.9%+7.3%———+1.5%
Mongolia−5.6%+11.8%+6.8%−0.4%+40.6%+59.6%+26.5%−1.1%
Montenegro—+3.4%+2.7%+1.1%—−3%+9.4%+8%
Montserrat−58.4%−32.5%−18.7%+0.8%———−7.2%
Morocco−0.5%+1.3%+1.8%−0.3%+12.7%+9.7%−7.7%−1.9%
Mozambique+14.2%+19.7%+2.4%−0.8%+18.8%+24.4%+4.9%+6.4%
Myanmar−5.5%−1.2%−5.2%−0.8%+6.5%+20.9%+20.5%−0.1%
Namibia+30.4%+18.1%+8.1%+13.8%+5.6%+29.4%+23.3%0%
Nauru−31.1%+8.6%+12%−7%———−2.7%
Nepal−19.8%−21.2%−3.9%−3.9%−21.5%−21.6%+2.1%−0.2%
Netherlands+14.3%+7.2%+5.6%+2.7%−2.6%−7.9%−10.4%−12.7%
New Caledonia+3.4%−2.3%+0.1%−1.1%−2.3%+6.4%+0.4%−0.3%
New Zealand+11.6%+9.9%+4.7%−1.1%−12.9%−4.7%−10.1%−5.2%
Nicaragua−19%−1.5%−1%−3.2%−11.8%−0.4%+1.3%−1.5%
Niger+27.5%+6.5%−0.7%−3.8%+47.3%+3.9%−8.3%−9.1%
Nigeria+28.6%+12.1%+0.1%+1.8%+44.9%+23%−11%−11.5%
Niue+24.9%+37.2%+66.9%−6.1%———+5.2%
North Korea−8.9%+5.3%+1.2%+1%−3.1%−0.5%−5.1%−0.6%
North Macedonia−18.4%−9%−12.8%−12.2%−10.1%+19.8%+20.3%+6.2%
Northern Mariana Islands−80.2%−58.3%−19.8%−9.4%———+10.4%
Norway+14.9%+6.8%−0.4%+0.8%−18.9%−13.2%−16.8%−7.1%
Oman−0.9%+44%+8.1%+8.7%−30.7%+10.1%+11.6%+0.1%
Pakistan−3.2%+13.3%+16.6%+2.9%+33.9%+34.2%+33.7%+7.7%
Palau−44.6%−22.1%−23.5%−1.8%———−18.5%
Palestine—−13.5%−1.9%+0.7%—−5%+0.2%−2%
Panama+19.9%+6.9%−0.4%−0.2%+14.4%+4.9%+1.9%−6.9%
Papua New Guinea+42.6%+25%+16.7%+0.6%+19.6%+12.5%−4%0%
Paraguay−24.3%−12.6%−13.9%−0.3%−14%+2.4%−5.4%0%
Peru−2.8%+1%−1%−1.5%−1%−5%−6.7%−7.7%
Philippines+8.5%+1.6%−0.7%−2.1%+16.7%−6.1%−15.3%−28.8%
Poland−1.1%+5.7%+1.9%−5.5%−12.7%+9%−3.8%−11.5%
Portugal+10.8%−3%−1.1%+1.8%−7.8%−9.4%+4.4%+10%
Puerto Rico−27%−24.6%−12.1%−0.6%−42.6%−40.1%−31.3%−26.5%
Qatar+285.8%+176.2%+13.8%+9.7%−21.1%−23.6%−6.4%−2.5%
Republic of the Congo+14%+19.4%+8.9%+1.3%+6.4%+25.9%−4.8%+3.1%
Romania−5.3%−3.1%−8.8%−3.9%+27.4%+25.5%+16.5%−1.7%
Russia+4.6%+12%+5.2%+0.7%+2.3%+15.1%+1.7%−4.8%
Rwanda+15.5%−4.7%−8.1%−1%+10%−15.9%−1%+0.2%
Réunion+0.8%−7.9%−9.5%−10.9%+15.1%+1.9%+3.5%−1.1%
Saint Barthélemy———+0.9%———−22.3%
Saint Helena−30.7%−30.8%+20.8%−0.5%———0%
Saint Kitts and Nevis+33.2%−22.5%−21.6%−2.1%———0%
Saint Lucia−12%−6.8%−8.2%−0.5%—−28.4%−20.8%0%
Saint Martin (French)———−14.2%———+15.2%
Saint Pierre and Miquelon−20.1%−11.5%−6%−2.7%———−19%
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines−21.9%−19.2%−7.6%−2.3%—−3.6%+2.5%+0.7%
Samoa−18%+4.1%+6.8%−4%+85.1%+32.3%+6.9%+0.1%
San Marino+5%+2.3%+3.4%+0.3%———+0.1%
Sao Tome and Principe+9%+10.8%−4.5%−0.4%—+30.6%+6.7%−1%
Saudi Arabia−13.8%−1.4%−0.8%−10%−26.6%−3.7%+6.4%−3.3%
Senegal+12%+4%−2.2%+1.8%+17.5%+21.7%−5.2%−10.2%
Serbia—−32.1%−24.8%−5.3%—−19.8%+7.8%−1.8%
Seychelles+32.9%+37%+32.3%+18.9%——+9.2%−6.8%
Sierra Leone+8.5%+2.3%+16.9%−3.8%+3.2%−24.5%−0.9%0%
Singapore+39.8%+14.6%−7.1%−3.8%−50.2%−29.2%−27.6%−9.6%
Sint Maarten (Dutch)——−19%−3.3%———−7.5%
Slovakia+1.9%+3.4%+1%−4.8%−2.5%+14.6%+4.4%−0.9%
Slovenia+15.1%+8.4%+1.1%−0.1%+13.6%+16.5%+3.2%−3.4%
Solomon Islands+1.6%+17.3%+18%+8.1%+29.1%+28.8%+6.3%−8.1%
Somalia−9.2%+39.7%+31.6%+1.2%+34.3%+30.8%+10.1%+0.6%
South Africa+39.2%+21.8%+12.8%+4.6%+3.5%−2.8%−0.1%−4.4%
South Korea−1.1%+5.3%+0.9%−0.1%−47%−18.8%−27.9%−18.5%
South Sudan——−22.8%+3.6%——−2.5%−9.1%
Spain+29.3%+2.9%−0.2%+0.8%−2.5%−17.4%−18.6%−6.3%
Sri Lanka−1.2%+13.1%+1.3%+4.9%+2.1%+10.4%−9.2%+0.8%
Sudan——+5.2%+4%——+14.6%0%
Suriname+21.8%+30.5%+8.2%+0.9%+27.4%+10.8%+11.9%−2%
Sweden+15.9%+7.9%+3%−0.6%+1.5%−4.3%−8.7%−14.3%
Switzerland+16.6%+12%−0.3%+0.8%−8.2%+1%−4.2%−4.6%
Syria−7.8%−11.8%−13%+1.6%+27.6%+17.6%+7.3%+1.5%
Taiwan——−1.2%−2.5%——−9%−24.4%
Tajikistan+20.3%+19.4%+2.1%+2.4%+42.4%+23.6%−7.8%−0.8%
Tanzania+19.5%+15.3%+1.5%−1.2%+34.5%+23.6%+0.6%+0.4%
Thailand−0.5%+4.6%+5.6%−0.1%−29.2%−27.3%−1.4%−7.9%
Timor-Leste+18.6%−27.4%+1.5%+1.7%+42.4%−39%−36.9%−8.5%
Togo+14.4%−2.6%+7.7%+2.8%+15.1%+23.1%+4.9%+1.4%
Tokelau+59.9%+70.6%+72.4%+26.7%———−0.9%
Tonga0%−5.1%−8.1%−2.9%—+10.2%−5.6%−0.7%
Trinidad and Tobago+1.5%+7.4%+12.1%−2.1%−8.5%−8.4%−11.2%−4.4%
Tunisia−3.3%+1.7%+1.1%−2.1%+3.5%+20.9%+13.5%−10.3%
Turkey+1%−1.1%+5.9%+1.7%−4.3%+1.5%+2.5%−12.8%
Turkmenistan+19.9%+23.3%+25.9%+13%+38.5%+38.3%+31.5%+4.3%
Turks and Caicos Islands+42.9%+56.7%+20.8%+0.3%———−11.1%
Tuvalu−50.7%−13.4%−4.3%−13.9%———+3.3%
US Virgin Islands+2.3%−20.6%−19.4%−13.2%—+10.1%−8.4%−0.5%
Uganda+14.7%−4.7%−5.8%+0.2%+7%−10.1%−9.3%−1.7%
Ukraine−18.3%−7.1%−10.6%+2.7%−15.3%−0.3%−15.2%−23.7%
United Arab Emirates+228.3%+75.3%−4.5%+11.8%−37.1%−37.3%−23.6%−16.5%
United Kingdom+14.6%+6.1%+3.2%+1.4%−10.2%−8%−9.8%−0.6%
United States+6.6%−1.9%−0.6%+1%−8.6%−10.7%−12.2%−2.3%
Uruguay−12.3%−4%−3.6%−1%−16.2%−10%−12.1%−4.9%
Uzbekistan+9.3%+6.7%+9.9%+1.4%+28.9%+29.3%+24%+27%
Vanuatu+3.7%+1.3%+3.4%−4.2%+35.2%+28%+19.8%−1.6%
Venezuela−16.9%−18.2%−18.3%−1.9%−1.4%−3.9%−4.6%−4.2%
Vietnam−5.3%−4%+1.6%+1.5%−6.3%+5.8%+17.9%−1%
Wallis and Futuna Islands−33.9%−32.5%−13.6%−1.2%———−26.4%
Western Sahara+26.4%−23.4%−19.8%−1.3%+11.1%−2.1%+5%−3.7%
Yemen+6.3%+12.9%+30.7%+14.3%−8%+6.4%+29%+26.1%
Zambia+37.4%+29.5%+3.2%+0.8%+32.4%+9.1%−17%−1.9%
Zimbabwe+10.6%+4.1%−9.9%−2%+80.2%+40.7%+18.2%+10%

IMF World Economic Outlook: next-year forecasts

Error = actual minus forecast, in percentage points; actual values from the latest IMF edition. The large errors of 2009 and 2020 are crises the forecasts did not expect.

EditionYearReal GDP growthInflation
CountriesMedian errorActual below forecastCountriesMedian errorActual below forecast
IMF Apr 20072008179−1 pp65%177+4.1 pp4%
IMF Oct 20072008179−1 pp66%177+3.6 pp4%
IMF Apr 20082009180−4.4 pp87%178−1.2 pp66%
IMF Oct 20082009179−4 pp89%178−2.7 pp78%
IMF Apr 20092010180+2 pp23%1790 pp50%
IMF Oct 20092010181+1.6 pp22%180+0.2 pp46%
IMF Apr 201020111810 pp51%180+1.2 pp27%
IMF Oct 20102011181−0.1 pp51%180+1 pp27%
IMF Apr 20112012181−0.9 pp64%1800 pp50%
IMF 09 20112012181−0.7 pp62%180−0.1 pp52%
IMF Apr 20122013182−0.6 pp63%181−0.8 pp66%
IMF Oct 20122013184−0.4 pp58%183−0.8 pp68%
IMF Apr 20132014185−0.4 pp58%183−1.1 pp73%
IMF Oct 20132014187−0.2 pp54%185−1 pp73%
IMF Apr 20142015187−0.6 pp65%186−1.4 pp75%
IMF Oct 20142015188−0.5 pp62%187−1.5 pp75%
IMF Apr 20152016188−0.3 pp58%187−1 pp72%
IMF Oct 20152016188−0.1 pp53%187−0.9 pp71%
IMF Apr 201620171900 pp48%190−0.1 pp57%
IMF Oct 20162017190+0.1 pp47%190−0.1 pp53%
IMF Apr 201720181910 pp47%191−0.3 pp59%
IMF Oct 201720181920 pp48%190−0.3 pp57%
IMF Apr 20182019191−0.4 pp63%191−0.6 pp69%
IMF Oct 20182019192−0.3 pp62%192−0.7 pp75%
IMF Apr 20192020188−6.9 pp97%190−1.2 pp71%
IMF Oct 20192020188−7 pp97%191−1 pp72%
IMF Apr 20202021186+0.9 pp40%188+1 pp30%
IMF Oct 20202021187+1.8 pp31%190+1.1 pp27%
IMF Apr 20212022186+0.1 pp45%189+5 pp6%
IMF Oct 202120221850 pp49%188+4.4 pp7%
IMF Apr 20222023182−0.6 pp62%190+1.6 pp25%
IMF Oct 202220231830 pp49%191+0.5 pp43%
IMF Apr 20232024167−0.1 pp53%184−0.5 pp66%
IMF Oct 20232024167+0.1 pp49%184−0.7 pp71%
IMF Apr 2024202574−0.1 pp51%142−0.4 pp55%
IMF Oct 2024202574−0.1 pp53%142−0.4 pp58%

Context

Pension-system assumptions

What fertility official pension and budget calculations assume, and what it actually is.

CountryAssumptionActual
United States
ssa.gov		Intermediate ultimate TFR 1.9 (unchanged from 2024 report) but now reached in 2050, 10 years later than in the 2024 report; low-cost 2.1, high-cost 1.6.1.5995 in 2024 (1,599.5 births per 1,000 women; record low; 2023: 1.621) — CDC/NCHS final 2024 data (NVSR vol. 75 no. 2, 9 June 2026). Provisional 2025: 3,606,400 births (-1%), general fertility rate 53.1 (TFR not given in the provisional report).
Japan
mhlw.go.jp		IPSS 'Population Projections for Japan (2023 Estimates)': medium-fertility TFR 1.36 in 2070 (high 1.64, low 1.13); base 1.33 (2020 actual); net migration of foreigners 164,000/yr (variants 250,000 and 69,000).1.15 in 2024 (record low); 1.14 in 2025 (preliminary; births 671,236 vs 686,173 in 2024; natural decrease 918,253).
South Korea
mohw.go.kr		Statistics Korea 2021 population projection, medium: TFR 0.73 (2023) falling to 0.70 (2024) then recovering to 0.96 (2030), 1.19 (2040) and 1.21 from 2046. (4th projection, 2018: 1.27 in 2023 rising to 1.38.)0.72 (2023), 0.75 (2024), 0.80 (2025; births 254.3 thousand, +6.7%) — Statistics Korea 'Birth Statistics in 2025', 26 Aug 2026.
Germany
bmas.de		RVB 2025: TFR held constant at 1.45 in the long run, with a gradual rise until 2035 (the 15th coordinated population projection had assumed 1.55 long-term); net migration 250,000 a year. Destatis 16th projection: G1 low ~1.30 (1.29 by 2070), G2 moderate 1.45 by end-2030s then 1.47, G3 high 1.55 by 2030 then 1.65 (all assume a slight fall in 2025).1.35 (2024), 1.32 (2025; lowest since 1997; 654,241 births, lowest post-war); 2023: 1.38 (census-corrected).
United Kingdom
obr.uk		OBR long-term projections are underpinned by the ONS 2021-based population projections (long-term TFR 1.59 by mid-2045). The ONS 2022-based projections (28 Jan 2025) lowered the long-term TFR to 1.45 by 2047 (net migration 340,000/yr). The OBR 2025 report notes the latest ONS projections imply faster ageing 'due to birth rates falling even further below replacement than previously forecast'.
Canada
osfi-bsif.gc.ca		Ultimate TFR 1.35 from 2033 (rising from 1.26 in 2023, partly attributed to the Canada-Wide Early Learning and Child Care plan), down from 1.54 in the 31st report (as at 31 Dec 2021); sensitivity tests 1.05 (higher cost) and 1.65 (lower cost).Statistics Canada table 13-10-0418-01: 1.27 (2023), 1.26 (2024), 1.26 (2025). (The CPP report cites 1.26 for 2023.)
Australia
treasury.gov.au		TFR expected to decline from 1.66 (2022–23) and stabilise at 1.62 from 2030–31, held at that level to 2062–63.1.481 (2024), 1.499 (2023) — ABS 'Births, Australia 2024' (released 15 Oct 2025).
France
cor-retraites.fr		June 2025 report: TFR 1.8 and net migration +70,000/yr (INSEE 2021 projections). June 2026 report: TFR 1.45 from 2028 and net migration +150,000/yr from 2026 (new INSEE assumptions published April 2026); variants 1.2 and 1.7.1.61 (2024), 1.56 (2025, provisional; lowest since the end of WWI) — INSEE Bilan démographique 2025 (13 Jan 2026).
ChinaAbout 1.0: UN WPP 2024 estimates 1.00 (2023) and 1.01 (2024). NBS (via search-result excerpt of Caixin Global, 19 Jan 2026): 7.92 million births in 2025 (9.54 million in 2024), population -3.39 million.
Pro-natal policies and results

Money and programmes against the fertility path. Rises happen, but no country has returned to 2.1 for good.

CountryTFR path
South Korea
National low-fertility measures since 2006 (programme details not verified here); 2025 pension reform extended the pension 'childbirth credit' to the first child (12 months) and removed the 50-month cap (MOHW, 20 Mar 2025).
kostat.go.kr
2006: 1.13 · 2015: 1.24 · 2016: 1.17 · 2017: 1.05 · 2018: 0.98 · 2019: 0.92 · 2020: 0.84 · 2021: 0.81 · 2022: 0.78 · 2023: 0.72 · 2024: 0.75 · 2025: 0.80
Hungary
Expanded family support since 2010, including sizeable family tax breaks (OECD: tax breaks for families exceed 0.5% of GDP in France, Germany and Hungary).
ksh.hu
2010: 1.25 · 2011: 1.23 · 2015: 1.45 · 2016: 1.51 · 2019: 1.51 · 2020: 1.59 · 2021: 1.61 · 2022: 1.55 · 2023: 1.51 · 2024: 1.39 · 2025: 1.31
Poland
Family 500+ universal child-raising benefit (from 2016, per task brief), raised to PLN 800 per month per child under 18 regardless of income from 1 January 2024 ('Rodzina 800 plus').
bdl.stat.gov.pl
2015: 1.29 · 2016: 1.36 · 2017: 1.45 · 2018: 1.44 · 2019: 1.42 · 2020: 1.39 · 2021: 1.33 · 2022: 1.26 · 2023: 1.16 · 2024: 1.10 · 2025: 1.07
Russia
Maternity (family) capital from 1 January 2007 (Federal Law No. 256-FZ of 29.12.2006); initial amount 250,000 rubles; available for first births from 2020; programme extended to 2030; from 1 Feb 2024 639,400 rubles (first child) and 883,000 rubles (second child).
api.worldbank.org
2006: 1.31 · 2007: 1.42 · 2010: 1.57 · 2015: 1.78 · 2016: 1.76 · 2019: 1.50 · 2022: 1.42 · 2023: 1.41 · 2024: 1.40 · 2025: 1.37
Georgia
geostat.ge
2005: 1.59 · 2007: 1.69 · 2008: 1.84 · 2009: 2.01 · 2010: 2.00 · 2013: 1.86 · 2014: 2.31 · 2015: 2.31 · 2016: 2.24 · 2019: 2.01 · 2021: 1.98 · 2022: 1.82 · 2023: 1.70 · 2024: 1.67 · 2025: 1.53
Czechia
ec.europa.eu
1999: 1.13 · 2010: 1.51 · 2015: 1.57 · 2019: 1.71 · 2020: 1.74 · 2021: 1.83 · 2022: 1.64 · 2023: 1.46 · 2024: 1.36
Japan
Children's Future Strategy 'Acceleration Plan' adopted December 2023: about JPY 3.6 trillion-scale expansion of child-rearing support (child allowance expansion, universal day-care access, pregnancy benefit, post-birth leave benefits, pension-contribution exemption), partly financed by a new 'child and child-rearing support levy' on all generations and firms.
cfa.go.jp
2005: 1.26 · 2015: 1.45 · 2019: 1.36 · 2022: 1.26 · 2023: 1.20 · 2024: 1.15 · 2025: 1.14
Singapore
Baby Bonus scheme (details and spending not verified in this pass).
tablebuilder.singstat.gov.sg
2005: 1.26 · 2010: 1.15 · 2015: 1.24 · 2020: 1.10 · 2021: 1.12 · 2022: 1.04 · 2023: 0.97 · 2024: 0.97 · 2025: 0.87
France
insee.fr
2010: 2.03 · 2015: 1.96 · 2020: 1.82 · 2023: 1.66 · 2024: 1.61 · 2025: 1.56
Israel
api.worldbank.org
2010: 3.03 · 2015: 3.09 · 2019: 3.01 · 2020: 2.90 · 2021: 3.00 · 2022: 2.89 · 2023: 2.85 · 2024: 2.87
Data access

Where official demographic statistics have become closed or incomplete.

  • Russia: Monthly demographic statistics withdrawn: Rosstat's monthly report 'Socio-economic situation of Russia' for January–May 2025 appeared without its 'Demographics' section (no population size, natural increase, births, deaths, marriages, divorces or migration); Rosstat also skipped its monthly 'natural population movement' summary for April 2025. The preceding monthly reports had already carried only national aggregates without regional breakdowns (regional operational data on births, deaths, marriages and divorces disappeared first). (Regional monthly breakdowns dropped in spring 2025 (last broadly available update March 2025); whole demographic section absent from the January–May 2025 report published in early July 2025.) ru.themoscowtimes.com
  • Russia: Detailed final mortality data for 2024 (deaths by sex, age and cause) not released; when researcher Dmitry Kobak requested it in June 2025, Rosstat replied that the government had 'принял решение о временном приостановлении' (decided on a temporary suspension) of access to these previously open data. (June 2025 (detailed cause-of-death tables normally due end of June were not published).) zona.media
  • Russia: Regional life-expectancy estimates for 2024 (due on Rosstat's site by 20 March 2025) not published; only the national figure was released. (March 2025) zona.media
  • Russia: Tables with detailed data on deaths and mortality from external causes (by age group) removed from Rosstat's natural-population-movement dataset. (July 2024) istories.media
  • Belarus: Belstat stopped publishing new mortality data from June 2020; in May 2021 it postponed indefinitely the release of 2020 mortality and migration data (normally published in a natural-movement bulletin); births and deaths data have not been published since 2020. (From June 2020; 2020 mortality/migration release (scheduled 17 May 2021) postponed the day before.) euroradio.fm
  • Ukraine: State Statistics Service (Derzhstat) has not disclosed official demographic statistics (births, deaths, population) for the war period; its SDG metadata for 2022–2023 states disclosure 'will be resumed after the completion of the deadline for submission of statistical and financial reports' set by the martial-law reporting law. A population estimate was prepared but its publication (format, scope, timing) was still being discussed with the government in 2026. Registered births/deaths are reported by the Ministry of Justice (2024: ~176,600 births, ~495,000 deaths, government-controlled territory). (From 2022 onward) sdg.stat.gov.ua
  • China: National cremation figures for Q4 2022 omitted from the Ministry of Civil Affairs' quarterly civil-affairs statistics released 9 June 2023 (cremation numbers had been released regularly in the Q4 report since 2007); Zhejiang's provincial Q1-2023 cremation figures (~170,000, about +73% y/y) were posted and later deleted. Per SCMP (search-result excerpt), Chongqing's civil-affairs bureau announced on 9 June 2023 an indefinite suspension of civil-affairs data releases following a Ministry instruction. (June 2023) taiwannews.com.tw
  • China: A key fertility-rate data series was dropped from the latest China Statistical Yearbook (as reported 27 Oct 2017 by SCMP). (2017) chinafile.com
  • Turkey: TurkStat (TÜİK) postponed 'Death and Cause of Death Statistics, 2020' (due June 2021) and the 2021 edition (due 23 June 2022, postponed the day before) plus 'Life Tables, 2019–2021'; it also postponed 'International Migration Statistics, 2020' (due 16 July 2021). The 2020 and 2021 death statistics were eventually published in February 2023 (2020 deaths: 507,938, +16.5% y/y). (June 2021 – February 2023) evrensel.net
  • India: Decennial census due in 2021 postponed (house-listing planned April–September 2020, population enumeration 9–28 February 2021); a new census was notified on 16 June 2025 with reference date 1 March 2027 (1 October 2026 for snow-bound areas). Vital-statistics reports were also delayed: the Civil Registration System and MCCD reports for 2021 were published on 6 May 2025 and the SRS Statistical Report 2021 on 7 May 2025 (2022 editions in June 2025). (Census: postponed from 2020/21 to 2026/27. Vital statistics for 2021: released May 2025.) morungexpress.com
  • Venezuela: Health Ministry stopped releasing epidemiological figures (incl. infant and maternal mortality) after July 2015; bulletins reappeared on the ministry website in May 2017 after nearly two years of silence. (July 2015 – May 2017) voanews.com
UN "Replacement Migration" (2000)

Migrants needed over 1995–2050 according to the UN calculation of 2000. un.org

AreaKeep populationKeep 15–64Keep worker-to-retiree ratio
France1.47M5.46M93.8M
Germany17.8M25.2M188M
Italy12.9M19.6M120M
Japan17.1M33.5M553M
Republic of Korea1.51M6.43M5.15B
Russian Federation28M35.8M257M
United Kingdom2.63M6.25M59.8M
United States6.38M18M593M
Europe100M161M1.39B
European Union47.5M79.6M701M
Fertility in origin countries

The countries that send the most migrants are themselves near or below replacement.

CountryChildren per womanYear
India1.902024
Mexico1.602023
Philippines1.902022
Turkey1.422025
Morocco1.972024
Colombia1.002025
Vietnam1.932025
Egypt2.752023 UN
Nigeria4.802024
Pakistan3.612023 UN
Bangladesh2.302022
Kazakhstan2.572025
Uzbekistan3.502023 UN
Ukraine0.982023 UN
China1.002023 UN

What these data do not show

World population is still growing and, depending on the source, will peak between the middle and the end of the century. Specific countries and regions are shrinking fast: East Asia, Southern and Eastern Europe, parts of Latin America. The data do not show global extinction in the coming decades.

They show something else: official fertility projections in ageing countries have been systematically too optimistic, and the small generations already born lock in a shrinking workforce for the next 20–30 years.

Projections do not err in one direction only: Japan's 2006 projection ran below actual for years, and Korea's 2021 and 2023 projections came in below actual fertility in 2024–2025.

Method & sources

  • UN World Population Prospects 2024: estimates 1950–2023, projections 2024–2100 (medium and low variants, 95% interval), age structure.
  • National statistics: actual births and fertility 2015–2025 (provisional 2025 and early-2026 data for some countries).
  • Archived official projections: IPSS (Japan), Statistics Korea, Taiwan NDC, UN, SSA and the Census Bureau (US), ONS, Eurostat, Destatis, ISTAT, Statistics Finland and Canada, the Australian Treasury, Rosstat.
  • Actual population, births and fertility: UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Economy: values of the latest IMF edition; World Bank indicators: published values.
  • Older UN revisions projected five-year periods (1 July to 30 June five years later). They are compared with a weighted mean of annual facts: the first and last calendar years weigh ½, the years between weigh 1.
  • UN gap: actual divided by projected, minus 1. IMF gap for rates (growth, inflation, debt, unemployment): difference in percentage points.
  • Facts get revised too: UN 2024 estimates of past years differ from what statistics published back then. Projections are compared with the best estimate available today.
  • In-depth checks of 22 cases against national projections (Japan, Korea, Italy and others) are above on this page.

All check rows in CSV:

Projection sources

National data sources