Population
38.8M persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Poland
All indicators of the Macroscope base for Poland, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
Births
238k
births per year, 2025
Total fertility rate
1.07
children per woman, 2025
GDP per capita, PPP
46,925
constant 2021 international $, 2025
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 3.65 in 1950 → 1.07 in 2025 (−71%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1989, below 1.5 since 1998. The trend broke around 1965 and 2005: −0.08 → −0.03 → −0.01 a year.
- Births: 755k in 1950 → 238k in 2025 (−68%). Peak: 781k in 1957; the latest value is 69% lower. The trend broke around 1968 and 1976: −18.2k → +21k → −8.48k a year.
- Population: 24.8M in 1950 → 38.8M in 2023 (+56%). The trend broke around 1989: change slowed down (+292k → +1.81k a year).
- Internet: 0% in 1990 → 88.6% in 2024 (+89 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2008. Fastest growth in 2001–2006: 9.9% → 44.6%.
- Urban share: 48.1% in 1960 → 60.1% in 2025 (+12 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1965. The trend broke around 1986 and 2000: +0.52 → +0.06 → −0.09 a year.
- GDP per person (PPP): 12,821 PPP dollars in 1990 → 46,925 PPP dollars in 2025 (×3.7). Low: 11,880 PPP dollars in 1991; ×3.9 since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2015: +455 → +887 → +1,568 a year.
- GDP growth: on average 0.1% in the 1980s, 2.7% in the 1990s, 3.9% in the 2000s, 3.8% in the 2010s, 2.8% in the 2020s. Lowest: −10% in 1981; highest: 7.1% in 1997.
- Inflation: on average 59.9% in the 1980s, 84.8% in the 1990s, 3.5% in the 2000s, 1.8% in the 2010s, 6.9% in the 2020s. Lowest: −0.9% in 2015; highest: 585.8% in 1990.
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1957–1967: 3.50 → 2.35. Over the same years: births 781k → 516k; population 28.1M → 31.8M; urban share 50.9% (1967); no data for the others in those years.
- Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.32 → 1.07; births 380k → 238k; population 38.3M (2015); internet 68% → 88.6%; urban share 60.3% → 60.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 31,700 PPP dollars → 46,925 PPP dollars; GDP growth 4.4% → 3.6%; inflation −0.9% → 3.6%.
How the indicators relate
- Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.59); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.35).
- Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.76); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.19). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
- Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.63); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.15).
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −16%.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.40 (+31% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.49 (+40% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 0.99.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −12%.
- The UN 2004 projection did not expect today's level (238k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2047).
- The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (238k, 2025) only around 2071: reality is 46 years ahead of it.
- National statistics for 2025: 238k, 20% below the UN 2024 medium variant (297k) and below its 95% interval.
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 235k (−1% vs 2025), 2100 — 124k (−48% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 34.8k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +3%.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 32.8M (−15% vs 2023), 2100 — 19.3M (−50% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 12.6M.
- GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 0.1 pp above the forecast; below it in 39% of cases; typical error ±1.6 pp. The biggest miss was for 2020: IMF, April 2019 expected 3.1%, the outcome was −2%.
- GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 3.3%, 2028 — 2.6%, 2031 — 2.5%.
- Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (34 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 0.5 pp above the forecast; below it in 50% of cases; typical error ±1.9 pp. The biggest miss was for 2022: IMF, April 2021 expected 2.5%, the outcome was 14.4%.
- Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 3.3%, 2028 — 3.9%, 2031 — 2.5%.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2023 | 25 years | 39.2M | 38.8M | −1.1% |
| UN 2000 | 2023 | 23 years | 37.5M | 38.8M | +3.4% |
| UN 2002 | 2023 | 21 years | 37.6M | 38.8M | +3.2% |
| UN 2004 | 2023 | 19 years | 37.4M | 38.8M | +3.7% |
| UN 2006 | 2023 | 17 years | 36.7M | 38.8M | +5.7% |
| UN 2008 | 2023 | 15 years | 37.2M | 38.8M | +4.2% |
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 38.3M | 38.8M | +1.2% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 38M | 38.8M | +1.9% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 38.1M | 38.8M | +1.6% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 37.6M | 38.8M | +3% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 37.7M | 38.8M | +2.9% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 41M | 38.8M | −5.5% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2020–2025 | 24 years | 386k | 303k | −21.6% |
| UN 2000 | 2020–2025 | 22 years | 352k | 303k | −13.9% |
| UN 2002 | 2020–2025 | 20 years | 346k | 303k | −12.4% |
| UN 2004 | 2020–2025 | 18 years | 322k | 303k | −5.9% |
| UN 2006 | 2020–2025 | 16 years | 303k | 303k | −0.1% |
| UN 2008 | 2020–2025 | 14 years | 320k | 303k | −5.3% |
| UN 2010 | 2020–2025 | 12 years | 399k | 303k | −24.1% |
| UN 2012 | 2020–2025 | 10 years | 381k | 303k | −20.6% |
| UN 2015 | 2020–2025 | 8 years | 326k | 303k | −7.2% |
| UN 2017 | 2020–2025 | 6 years | 310k | 303k | −2.3% |
| UN 2019 | 2020–2025 | 4 years | 345k | 303k | −12.2% |
| UN 2022 | 2025 | 3 years | 375k | 238k | −36.4% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2020–2025 | 24 years | 1.70 | 1.25 | −26.3% |
| UN 2000 | 2020–2025 | 22 years | 1.56 | 1.25 | −19.7% |
| UN 2002 | 2020–2025 | 20 years | 1.52 | 1.25 | −17.8% |
| UN 2004 | 2020–2025 | 18 years | 1.41 | 1.25 | −11.4% |
| UN 2006 | 2020–2025 | 16 years | 1.35 | 1.25 | −7.6% |
| UN 2008 | 2020–2025 | 14 years | 1.39 | 1.25 | −10.2% |
| UN 2010 | 2020–2025 | 12 years | 1.58 | 1.25 | −20.8% |
| UN 2012 | 2020–2025 | 10 years | 1.53 | 1.25 | −18.4% |
| UN 2015 | 2020–2025 | 8 years | 1.33 | 1.25 | −6.3% |
| UN 2017 | 2020–2025 | 6 years | 1.30 | 1.25 | −3.7% |
| UN 2019 | 2020–2025 | 4 years | 1.47 | 1.25 | −14.8% |
| UN 2022 | 2025 | 3 years | 1.48 | 1.07 | −28% |
IMF forecasts vs actual
Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.
Real GDP growth
% per year
- Actual (IMF)
- WEO, April editions
| Indicator | Forecasts | Mean error | Mean absolute error | Actual below forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 36 | +0.1 pp | 1.6 pp | 39% |
| Inflation | 34 | +0.5 pp | 1.9 pp | 50% |
| Unemployment rate | 29 | −0.8 pp | 1.1 pp | 79% |
| Government gross debt | 26 | −0.5 pp | 3.8 pp | 50% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
238k births per year latest value, 2025
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Source: GUS Local Data Bank (BDL) API, variables 59 (live births) and 59049 (TFR)
Total fertility rate
1.07 children per woman latest value, 2025
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Source: GUS Local Data Bank (BDL) API, variables 59 (live births) and 59049 (TFR)
Life expectancy at birth, women
82.4 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
74.9 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
41.3 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
29.9 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
106 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
−7.82k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
29.3 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).
Digitalisation
Internet users
88.6 % of population latest value, 2024
Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.
Mobile cellular subscriptions
138 per 100 people latest value, 2024
Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.
Fixed broadband subscriptions
25.4 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2024
Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.
Economy
GDP per capita, PPP
46,925 constant 2021 international $ latest value, 2025
Gross domestic product per person at purchasing power parity, constant 2021 international dollars (World Bank, ICP).
Real GDP growth
3.6 % per year latest value, 2025
Annual change of GDP at constant prices. Actual values and forecasts from IMF WEO editions.
Inflation
3.6 % per year, average latest value, 2025
Change of the annual average consumer price index (IMF WEO).
Government gross debt
55.1 % of GDP latest value, 2024
General government gross debt, percent of GDP (IMF WEO).
Unemployment rate
3.1 % of labour force latest value, 2025
Unemployed as a share of the labour force (IMF WEO; national definitions).
GDP per capita, US dollars
28,374 current US dollars latest value, 2025
GDP per person in current US dollars at market exchange rates (IMF WEO).
Society
Urban population
60.1 % of population latest value, 2025
Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).
Tertiary enrolment, women
99.5 % gross latest value, 2024
Women enrolled in tertiary education as a share of women in the five-year age group after secondary school; can exceed 100 (UNESCO).
Women with upper secondary education
86.2 % of women 25+ latest value, 2021
Share of women aged 25+ who completed at least upper secondary education (UNESCO).
Life expectancy at birth
78.4 years latest value, 2024
Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).
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