Ukraine

Births

212k

births per year, 2023

Total fertility rate

0.98

children per woman, 2023

Median age

years, 2023

Internet users

82.5

% of population, 2024

Mobile cellular subscriptions

133.4

per 100 people, 2023

GDP per capita, PPP

16,155

constant 2021 international $, 2025

Urban population

69.6

% of population, 2025

What the data shows

Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.

How the indicators changed

Fertility (TFR): 2.45 in 1950 → 0.98 in 2023 (−60%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1987, below 1.5 since 2014, below 1.0 since 2022. The trend broke around 1989 and 1997: −0.01 → −0.08 → 0 a year.
Births: 854k in 1950 → 212k in 2023 (−75%). Peak: 892k in 1960; the latest value is 76% lower. The trend broke around 1989 and 1995: −2.65k → −39.9k → −4.43k a year.
Population: 37.3M in 1950 → 37.7M in 2023 (+1%). Peak: 52.4M in 1993; the latest value is 28% lower. The trend broke around 1968 and 1991: +538k → +244k → −318k a year.
Internet: 0% in 1990 → 82.5% in 2024 (+82 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2008, above 50% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2008–2013: 11% → 41%.
Urban share: 47.4% in 1960 → 69.6% in 2025 (+22 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1964. The trend broke around 1989: change slowed down (+0.55 → +0.07 a year).
GDP per person (PPP): 22,816 PPP dollars in 1990 → 16,155 PPP dollars in 2025 (−29%). Low: 9,646 PPP dollars in 1998; +67% since then. The trend broke around 1997 and 2007: −2,080 → +986 → −100 a year.
GDP growth: on average −9.3% in the 1990s, 4.7% in the 2000s, 0.1% in the 2010s, −4.1% in the 2020s. Lowest: −28.8% in 2022; highest: 11.8% in 2004.
Inflation: on average 917.8% in the 1990s, 13.2% in the 2000s, 12.6% in the 2010s, 10.7% in the 2020s. Lowest: −0.3% in 2013; highest: 4,735% in 1993.

What changed at the same time

The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1988–1998: 2.04 → 1.21. Over the same years: births 758k → 423k; population 51.7M → 50.4M; internet 0.3% (1998); urban share 66.6% → 67.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 9,646 PPP dollars (1998); GDP growth −1.9% (1998); inflation 10.6% (1998).
Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.52 → 0.98; births 515k → 212k; population 46.1M → 37.7M; internet 41% → 81.6%; urban share 68.9% → 69.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 17,889 PPP dollars → 15,917 PPP dollars; GDP growth 0% → 5.5%; inflation −0.3% → 12.9%.

How the indicators relate

Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 32 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.29); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.25).
Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.75); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.27). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.58); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.70). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.

Forecasts vs actual

Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 8 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −15%.
Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.14 (+17% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.30 (+33% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.80.
Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −12%.
The UN 2000 projection did not expect today's level (212k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).
The UN 2019 projection did not expect today's level (212k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).
Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 188k (−11% vs 2023), 2100 — 79.1k (−63% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 15.7k.
Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −11%.
The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (37.7M, 2023) only around 2030: reality is 7 years ahead of it.
The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (37.7M, 2023) only around 2042: reality is 19 years ahead of it.
Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 32M (−15% vs 2023), 2100 — 15.2M (−60% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 9.22M.
GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (30 editions, 2007–2023). On average the outcome was 5.4 pp below the forecast; below it in 63% of cases; typical error ±6.1 pp. The biggest miss was for 2022: IMF, October 2021 expected 3.6%, the outcome was −28.8%.
GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2025 — 1.8%, 2027 — 3.5%, 2031 — 3.6%.
Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (32 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 2.6 pp above the forecast; below it in 44% of cases; typical error ±5.9 pp. The biggest miss was for 2015: IMF, October 2014 expected 14%, the outcome was 48.7%.
Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 6.1%, 2028 — 5.7%, 2031 — 5%.

UN projections vs actual

Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.

Population

persons, 1 July

Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium

Release	Target period	Horizon	Expected	Actual	Actual vs expected
UN 1998	2023	25 years	46.2M	37.7M	−18.3%
UN 2000	2023	23 years	40.3M	37.7M	−6.5%
UN 2002	2023	21 years	41.5M	37.7M	−9.1%
UN 2004	2023	19 years	38.2M	37.7M	−1.4%
UN 2006	2023	17 years	40.6M	37.7M	−7.1%
UN 2008	2023	15 years	42.2M	37.7M	−10.5%
UN 2010	2023	13 years	42.3M	37.7M	−10.8%
UN 2012	2023	11 years	42.2M	37.7M	−10.6%
UN 2015	2023	8 years	42.9M	37.7M	−12.1%
UN 2017	2023	6 years	42.9M	37.7M	−12.1%
UN 2019	2023	4 years	42.9M	37.7M	−12.1%
UN 2022	2023	1 year	36.7M	37.7M	+2.7%

Births

births per year

Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium

Release	Target period	Horizon	Expected	Actual	Actual vs expected
UN 1998	2015–2020	20 years	443k	390k	−12.1%
UN 2000	2015–2020	18 years	353k	390k	+10.6%
UN 2002	2015–2020	16 years	364k	390k	+7.1%
UN 2004	2015–2020	14 years	346k	390k	+12.6%
UN 2006	2015–2020	12 years	367k	390k	+6.2%
UN 2008	2015–2020	10 years	463k	390k	−15.7%
UN 2010	2015–2020	8 years	464k	390k	−15.9%
UN 2012	2015–2020	6 years	457k	390k	−14.8%
UN 2015	2015–2020	2 years	472k	390k	−17.4%
UN 2017	2015–2020	0 years	462k	390k	−15.5%
UN 2022	2023	1 year	184k	212k	+15%

Total fertility rate

children per woman

Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium

Release	Target period	Horizon	Expected	Actual	Actual vs expected
UN 1998	2015–2020	20 years	1.52	1.29	−15.3%
UN 2000	2015–2020	18 years	1.25	1.29	+3%
UN 2002	2015–2020	16 years	1.28	1.29	+0.6%
UN 2004	2015–2020	14 years	1.25	1.29	+3%
UN 2006	2015–2020	12 years	1.29	1.29	−0.3%
UN 2008	2015–2020	10 years	1.57	1.29	−18.2%
UN 2010	2015–2020	8 years	1.57	1.29	−17.7%
UN 2012	2015–2020	6 years	1.52	1.29	−15.2%
UN 2015	2015–2020	2 years	1.56	1.29	−17.2%
UN 2017	2015–2020	0 years	1.56	1.29	−17.3%
UN 2022	2023	1 year	1.28	0.98	−23.7%

IMF forecasts vs actual

Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.

Real GDP growth

% per year

Actual (IMF)
WEO, April editions

Indicator	Forecasts	Mean error	Mean absolute error	Actual below forecast
Real GDP growth	30	−5.4 pp	6.1 pp	63%
Inflation	32	+2.6 pp	5.9 pp	44%
Unemployment rate	20	0 pp	0.8 pp	55%
Government gross debt	22	−3.5 pp	14.7 pp	59%

All indicators

Demography

Population

37.7M persons, 1 July latest value, 2023

Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.

Births

212k births per year latest value, 2023

Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).

Total fertility rate

0.98 children per woman latest value, 2023

Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.

Life expectancy at birth, women

80.2 years latest value, 2023

Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).

Life expectancy at birth, men

66.9 years latest value, 2023

Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).

Median age

42 years latest value, 2023

Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).

Mean age of mothers at childbirth

28.1 years latest value, 2023

Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).

Sex ratio at birth

106.3 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023

Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).

Net migration

−300k persons per year latest value, 2023

Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).

Old-age dependency

27.1 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020

Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).

Digitalisation

Internet users

82.5 % of population latest value, 2024

Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.

Mobile cellular subscriptions

133.4 per 100 people latest value, 2023

Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.

Fixed broadband subscriptions

21.7 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2024

Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.

Economy

GDP per capita, PPP

16,155 constant 2021 international $ latest value, 2025

Gross domestic product per person at purchasing power parity, constant 2021 international dollars (World Bank, ICP).

Real GDP growth

3.2 % per year latest value, 2024

Annual change of GDP at constant prices. Actual values and forecasts from IMF WEO editions.

Inflation

12.7 % per year, average latest value, 2025

Change of the annual average consumer price index (IMF WEO).

Government gross debt

89.7 % of GDP latest value, 2024

General government gross debt, percent of GDP (IMF WEO).

Unemployment rate

9.9 % of labour force latest value, 2021

Unemployed as a share of the labour force (IMF WEO; national definitions).

GDP per capita, US dollars

5,723 current US dollars latest value, 2024

GDP per person in current US dollars at market exchange rates (IMF WEO).

Society

Urban population

69.6 % of population latest value, 2025

Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).

Tertiary enrolment, women

80.2 % gross latest value, 2024

Women enrolled in tertiary education as a share of women in the five-year age group after secondary school; can exceed 100 (UNESCO).

Women with upper secondary education

70.3 % of women 25+ latest value, 2021

Share of women aged 25+ who completed at least upper secondary education (UNESCO).

Life expectancy at birth

74.7 years latest value, 2024

Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).