Bulgaria

Mobile cellular subscriptions

118.1

per 100 people, 2024

GDP per capita, PPP

35,326

constant 2021 international $, 2025

Urban population

74.2

% of population, 2025

What the data shows

Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.

How the indicators changed

Fertility (TFR): 2.48 in 1950 → 1.63 in 2025 (−34%). Low: 1.11 in 1997; +46% since then. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1980. The trend broke around 1988 and 1996: −0.01 → −0.1 → +0.02 a year.
Births: 156k in 1950 → 50.2k in 2025 (−68%). The trend broke around 1986 and 1995: −0.66k → −5.67k → −0.47k a year.
Population: 7.25M in 1950 → 6.8M in 2023 (−6%). Peak: 8.99M in 1988; the latest value is 24% lower. The trend broke around 1972 and 1985: +63.3k → +28.5k → −61k a year.
Internet: 0% in 1990 → 82.4% in 2024 (+82 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2003, above 50% since 2012. Fastest growth in 2003–2008: 12% → 39.7%.
Urban share: 37.1% in 1960 → 74.2% in 2025 (+37 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1969. The trend broke around 1972 and 1984: +1.6 → +0.82 → +0.23 a year.
GDP per person (PPP): 14,954 PPP dollars in 1990 → 35,326 PPP dollars in 2025 (+136%). Low: 11,954 PPP dollars in 1999; ×3 since then. The trend broke around 1999: direction reversed (−171 → +794 a year).
GDP growth: on average 3.7% in the 1980s, −5.9% in the 1990s, 4.9% in the 2000s, 2.0% in the 2010s, 2.8% in the 2020s. Lowest: −14.1% in 1997; highest: 7.8% in 2021.
Inflation: on average 2.6% in the 1980s, 187.6% in the 1990s, 6.7% in the 2000s, 1.1% in the 2010s, 5.3% in the 2020s. Lowest: −1.6% in 2014; highest: 1,061% in 1997.

What changed at the same time

The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1987–1997: 1.96 → 1.11. Over the same years: births 117k → 63.8k; population 8.98M → 8.22M; internet 1.2% (1997); urban share 66% → 67.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 12,419 PPP dollars (1997); GDP growth 4.7% → −14.1%; inflation 2.7% → 1,061%.
Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.53 → 1.63; births 65.9k → 50.2k; population 7.18M (2015); internet 56.7% → 82.4%; urban share 73.1% → 74.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 24,563 PPP dollars → 35,326 PPP dollars; GDP growth 3.4% → 3.1%; inflation −1.1% → 3.5%.

How the indicators relate

Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 33 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.76); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.56). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.
Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.74); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.71); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.32). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.

Forecasts vs actual

Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +4.8%.
The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (1.63, 2025) only around 2036: reality is 11 years ahead of it.
The UN 2010 projection expected this level (1.63) already around 2018: reality is 7 years behind it.
Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.70 (+4% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.68 (+3% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.18.
Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap 0%.
The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (50.2k, 2025) only around 2036: reality is 11 years ahead of it.
The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (50.2k, 2025) only around 2030: reality is 5 years ahead of it.
National statistics for 2025: 50.2k, 17% below the UN 2024 medium variant (60.4k) and below its 95% interval.
Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 47.8k (−5% vs 2025), 2100 — 28.9k (−42% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 9.23k.
Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +1.2%.
The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (6.8M, 2023) only around 2030: reality is 7 years ahead of it.
The UN 2019 projection expected this level (6.8M) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.
Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 5.4M (−21% vs 2023), 2100 — 3.53M (−48% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 2.26M.
GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 0.7 pp below the forecast; below it in 50% of cases; typical error ±1.8 pp. The biggest miss was for 2009: IMF, April 2008 expected 4.8%, the outcome was −3.3%.
GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 2.8%, 2028 — 2.8%, 2031 — 2.6%.
Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 0.7 pp above the forecast; below it in 44% of cases; typical error ±2.4 pp. The biggest miss was for 2022: IMF, October 2021 expected 1.9%, the outcome was 13%.
Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 3.8%, 2028 — 3.4%, 2031 — 2.2%.

UN projections vs actual

Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.

Population

persons, 1 July

Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium

Release	Target period	Horizon	Expected	Actual	Actual vs expected
UN 1998	2023	25 years	7.13M	6.8M	−4.7%
UN 2000	2023	23 years	6.26M	6.8M	+8.5%
UN 2002	2023	21 years	6.72M	6.8M	+1.2%
UN 2004	2023	19 years	6.68M	6.8M	+1.8%
UN 2006	2023	17 years	6.68M	6.8M	+1.7%
UN 2008	2023	15 years	6.86M	6.8M	−0.9%
UN 2010	2023	13 years	6.84M	6.8M	−0.7%
UN 2012	2023	11 years	6.65M	6.8M	+2.2%
UN 2015	2023	8 years	6.72M	6.8M	+1.2%
UN 2017	2023	6 years	6.79M	6.8M	0%
UN 2019	2023	4 years	6.79M	6.8M	+0.1%
UN 2022	2023	1 year	6.69M	6.8M	+1.6%

Births

births per year

Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium

Release	Target period	Horizon	Expected	Actual	Actual vs expected
UN 1998	2020–2025	24 years	54.1k	58.7k	+8.6%
UN 2000	2020–2025	22 years	48.6k	58.7k	+20.9%
UN 2002	2020–2025	20 years	55.3k	58.7k	+6.2%
UN 2004	2020–2025	18 years	50.5k	58.7k	+16.4%
UN 2006	2020–2025	16 years	50.4k	58.7k	+16.7%
UN 2008	2020–2025	14 years	58.5k	58.7k	+0.5%
UN 2010	2020–2025	12 years	61.6k	58.7k	−4.6%
UN 2012	2020–2025	10 years	59.1k	58.7k	−0.6%
UN 2015	2020–2025	8 years	61.5k	58.7k	−4.5%
UN 2017	2020–2025	6 years	61.3k	58.7k	−4.2%
UN 2019	2020–2025	4 years	59k	58.7k	−0.4%
UN 2022	2025	3 years	53.5k	50.2k	−6.1%

Total fertility rate

children per woman

Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium

Release	Target period	Horizon	Expected	Actual	Actual vs expected
UN 1998	2020–2025	24 years	1.48	1.68	+14.1%
UN 2000	2020–2025	22 years	1.43	1.68	+17.8%
UN 2002	2020–2025	20 years	1.54	1.68	+9.3%
UN 2004	2020–2025	18 years	1.41	1.68	+19.8%
UN 2006	2020–2025	16 years	1.44	1.68	+17.3%
UN 2008	2020–2025	14 years	1.60	1.68	+5.3%
UN 2010	2020–2025	12 years	1.69	1.68	−0.2%
UN 2012	2020–2025	10 years	1.67	1.68	+0.5%
UN 2015	2020–2025	8 years	1.66	1.68	+1.5%
UN 2017	2020–2025	6 years	1.64	1.68	+2.5%
UN 2019	2020–2025	4 years	1.61	1.68	+4.4%
UN 2022	2025	3 years	1.60	1.63	+1.8%

IMF forecasts vs actual

Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.

Real GDP growth

% per year

Actual (IMF)
WEO, April editions

Indicator	Forecasts	Mean error	Mean absolute error	Actual below forecast
Real GDP growth	36	−0.7 pp	1.8 pp	50%
Inflation	36	+0.7 pp	2.4 pp	44%
Unemployment rate	29	−0.1 pp	1.3 pp	62%
Government gross debt	28	−0.9 pp	3.4 pp	57%

All indicators

Demography

Population

6.8M persons, 1 July latest value, 2023

Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.

Births

50.2k births per year latest value, 2025

Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).

Source: NSI, Population and demographic processes in 2025

Total fertility rate

1.63 children per woman latest value, 2025

Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.

Source: NSI, Population and demographic processes in 2025

Life expectancy at birth, women

79.2 years latest value, 2023

Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).

Life expectancy at birth, men

72.2 years latest value, 2023

Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).

Median age

44.3 years latest value, 2023

Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).

Mean age of mothers at childbirth

27.9 years latest value, 2023

Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).

Sex ratio at birth

106 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023

Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).

Net migration

5.17k persons per year latest value, 2023

Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).

Old-age dependency

36.5 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020

Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).

Digitalisation

Internet users

82.4 % of population latest value, 2024

Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.

Mobile cellular subscriptions

118.1 per 100 people latest value, 2024

Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.

Fixed broadband subscriptions

37 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2023

Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.

Economy

GDP per capita, PPP

35,326 constant 2021 international $ latest value, 2025

Gross domestic product per person at purchasing power parity, constant 2021 international dollars (World Bank, ICP).

Real GDP growth

3.1 % per year latest value, 2025

Annual change of GDP at constant prices. Actual values and forecasts from IMF WEO editions.

Inflation

3.5 % per year, average latest value, 2025

Change of the annual average consumer price index (IMF WEO).

Government gross debt

27.1 % of GDP latest value, 2025

General government gross debt, percent of GDP (IMF WEO).

Unemployment rate

3.6 % of labour force latest value, 2025

Unemployed as a share of the labour force (IMF WEO; national definitions).

GDP per capita, US dollars

20,921 current US dollars latest value, 2025

GDP per person in current US dollars at market exchange rates (IMF WEO).

Society

Urban population

74.2 % of population latest value, 2025

Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).

Tertiary enrolment, women

82 % gross latest value, 2024

Women enrolled in tertiary education as a share of women in the five-year age group after secondary school; can exceed 100 (UNESCO).

Women with upper secondary education

79 % of women 25+ latest value, 2023

Share of women aged 25+ who completed at least upper secondary education (UNESCO).

Life expectancy at birth

75.8 years latest value, 2024

Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).