Population
84.2k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Isle of Man
All indicators of the Macroscope base for Isle of Man, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 2.41 in 1950 → 1.55 in 2023 (−36%). Peak: 2.69 in 1961; the latest value is 42% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1976. The trend broke around 1965 and 1979: +0.03 → −0.05 → −0.01 a year.
- Births: 0.89k in 1950 → 0.7k in 2023 (−21%). Peak: 0.95k in 2008; the latest value is 26% lower. The trend broke around 1956 and 2007: −0.05k → +0.01k → −0.02k a year.
- Population: 55.1k in 1950 → 84.2k in 2023 (+53%). Low: 48.5k in 1961; +74% since then. The trend broke around 1961 and 2011: −0.64k → +0.7k → +0.02k a year.
- Urban share: 55.1% in 1960 → 52.1% in 2025 (−3 pp). The trend broke around 1969 and 1977: +0.16 → −0.74 → +0.03 a year.
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1970–1980: 2.57 → 1.95. Over the same years: births 0.76k → 0.77k; population 55.3k → 64.1k; urban share 55.9% → 50.4%.
- Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.82 → 1.55; births 0.88k → 0.7k; population 84.1k → 84.2k; urban share 52.1% → 52.2%.
How the indicators relate
- Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.83); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.47). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −1.2%.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.54 (−1% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.58 (+2% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.08.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −2.5%.
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.61k (−13% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.44k (−38% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.16k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −1.4%.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 78k (−7% vs 2023), 2100 — 58.1k (−31% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 40.1k.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2023 | 25 years | 99.5k | 84.2k | −15.4% |
| UN 2000 | 2023 | 23 years | 84.1k | 84.2k | 0% |
| UN 2002 | 2023 | 21 years | 79.5k | 84.2k | +5.8% |
| UN 2004 | 2023 | 19 years | 75.2k | 84.2k | +12% |
| UN 2006 | 2023 | 17 years | 78.3k | 84.2k | +7.5% |
| UN 2008 | 2023 | 15 years | 80.5k | 84.2k | +4.5% |
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 86.6k | 84.2k | −2.8% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 91.3k | 84.2k | −7.8% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 92.6k | 84.2k | −9.1% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 87.4k | 84.2k | −3.7% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 86k | 84.2k | −2.2% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 84.7k | 84.2k | −0.6% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 0.72k | 0.7k | −2.5% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 1.57 | 1.55 | −1.2% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
0.7k births per year latest value, 2023
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Total fertility rate
1.55 children per woman latest value, 2023
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
83.1 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
78.9 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
45.7 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
29.7 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
105 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
0.2k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
37.8 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).
Society
Urban population
52.1 % of population latest value, 2025
Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).
Life expectancy at birth
81.1 years latest value, 2024
Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).
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