Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
Fertility (TFR): 2.40 in 1950 → 1.28 in 2025 (−47%). Peak: 2.65 in 1964; the latest value is 52% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1971, below 1.5 since 2022. The trend broke around 1965 and 1976: +0.02 → −0.1 → 0 a year.
Births: 84.4k in 1950 → 78.2k in 2025 (−7%). Peak: 112k in 1964; the latest value is 30% lower. The trend broke around 1966 and 1977: +2.08k → −3.36k → +0.2k a year.
Population: 4.69M in 1950 → 8.87M in 2023 (+89%). The trend broke around 1967 and 2002: +79.7k → +34.9k → +80.8k a year.
Internet: 0.6% in 1990 → 97.3% in 2025 (+97 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1997, above 50% since 2001, above 90% since 2018. Fastest growth in 1996–2001: 4.6% → 55.1%.
Urban share: 51% in 1960 → 85.7% in 2025 (+35 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 2015. The trend broke around 1999 and 2013: +0.57 → +0.04 → +1.1 a year.
GDP per person (PPP): 63,921 PPP dollars in 1990 → 85,732 PPP dollars in 2025 (+34%). Low: 59,203 PPP dollars in 1993; +45% since then.
GDP growth: on average 2.4% in the 1980s, 1.1% in the 1990s, 2.0% in the 2000s, 2.0% in the 2010s, 1.8% in the 2020s. Lowest: −2.4% in 2020; highest: 6.2% in 2021.
Inflation: on average 3.3% in the 1980s, 2.3% in the 1990s, 1.0% in the 2000s, 0.0% in the 2010s, 1.0% in the 2020s. Lowest: −1.1% in 2015; highest: 6.5% in 1981.
What changed at the same time
The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1965–1975: 2.59 → 1.61. Over the same years: births 111k → 78.9k; population 5.86M → 6.34M; urban share 54.4% → 59.4%; no data for the others in those years.
Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.54 → 1.28; births 85.5k → 78.2k; population 8.28M (2015); internet 87.5% → 97.3%; urban share 75.6% → 85.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 78,326 PPP dollars → 85,732 PPP dollars; GDP growth 1.4% → 1.3%; inflation −1.1% → 0.2%.
How the indicators relate
Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.34); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.03).
Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.77); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.05). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.33); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.15).
Forecasts vs actual
Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −11%.
Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.52 (+19% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.58 (+23% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.08.
Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +3.1%.
The UN 1998 projection expected this level (78.2k) already around 1999: reality is 26 years behind it.
National statistics for 2025: 78.2k, 5% below the UN 2024 medium variant (81.8k).
Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 81.6k (+4% vs 2025), 2100 — 76.9k (−2% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 33.6k.
Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +11%.
The UN 2012 projection expected this level (8.87M) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.
The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (8.87M, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.
Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 9.34M (+5% vs 2023), 2100 — 9.13M (+3% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 6.68M.
GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 0.1 pp above the forecast; below it in 50% of cases; typical error ±1.1 pp. The biggest miss was for 2020: IMF, April 2019 expected 1.5%, the outcome was −2.4%.
GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 1.3%, 2028 — 1.8%, 2031 — 1.2%.
Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 0.3 pp below the forecast; below it in 67% of cases; typical error ±0.9 pp. The biggest miss was for 2022: IMF, April 2021 expected 0.3%, the outcome was 2.8%.
Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 0.5%, 2028 — 0.6%, 2031 — 0.7%.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 1998
2023
25 years
7.61M
8.87M
+16.6%
UN 2000
2023
23 years
6.78M
8.87M
+30.8%
UN 2002
2023
21 years
6.85M
8.87M
+29.5%
UN 2004
2023
19 years
7.39M
8.87M
+20.1%
UN 2006
2023
17 years
7.92M
8.87M
+12%
UN 2008
2023
15 years
7.96M
8.87M
+11.4%
UN 2010
2023
13 years
8.01M
8.87M
+10.8%
UN 2012
2023
11 years
8.9M
8.87M
−0.3%
UN 2015
2023
8 years
8.84M
8.87M
+0.4%
UN 2017
2023
6 years
8.85M
8.87M
+0.3%
UN 2019
2023
4 years
8.83M
8.87M
+0.5%
UN 2022
2023
1 year
8.8M
8.87M
+0.8%
Births
births per year
Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 1998
2020–2025
24 years
74.9k
83k
+10.8%
UN 2000
2020–2025
22 years
57.2k
83k
+45%
UN 2002
2020–2025
20 years
60.9k
83k
+36.3%
UN 2004
2020–2025
18 years
72.8k
83k
+14%
UN 2006
2020–2025
16 years
80.4k
83k
+3.2%
UN 2008
2020–2025
14 years
79.9k
83k
+3.9%
UN 2010
2020–2025
12 years
80.5k
83k
+3.1%
UN 2012
2020–2025
10 years
98k
83k
−15.3%
UN 2015
2020–2025
8 years
91.5k
83k
−9.4%
UN 2017
2020–2025
6 years
89.1k
83k
−6.9%
UN 2019
2020–2025
4 years
88.7k
83k
−6.4%
UN 2022
2025
3 years
85k
78.2k
−8%
Total fertility rate
children per woman
Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 1998
2020–2025
24 years
1.70
1.40
−17.5%
UN 2000
2020–2025
22 years
1.48
1.40
−4.9%
UN 2002
2020–2025
20 years
1.57
1.40
−10.4%
UN 2004
2020–2025
18 years
1.57
1.40
−10.6%
UN 2006
2020–2025
16 years
1.55
1.40
−9.2%
UN 2008
2020–2025
14 years
1.59
1.40
−11.5%
UN 2010
2020–2025
12 years
1.67
1.40
−15.8%
UN 2012
2020–2025
10 years
1.62
1.40
−13.3%
UN 2015
2020–2025
8 years
1.62
1.40
−13.2%
UN 2017
2020–2025
6 years
1.57
1.40
−10.6%
UN 2019
2020–2025
4 years
1.56
1.40
−9.9%
UN 2022
2025
3 years
1.51
1.28
−15.3%
IMF forecasts vs actual
Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.
Real GDP growth
% per year
Actual (IMF)
WEO, April editions
Indicator
Forecasts
Mean error
Mean absolute error
Actual below forecast
Real GDP growth
36
+0.1 pp
1.1 pp
50%
Inflation
36
−0.3 pp
0.9 pp
67%
Unemployment rate
36
−0.3 pp
0.5 pp
75%
Government gross debt
28
−2.6 pp
4.9 pp
71%
All indicators
Demography
Population
8.87M persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.