Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
Fertility (TFR): 3.06 in 1950 → 2.11 in 2023 (−31%). Low: 1.75 in 1993; +21% since then. The trend broke around 1994 and 2017: −0.03 → +0.03 → −0.08 a year.
Births: 0.4k in 1950 → 0.37k in 2023 (−7%). Peak: 0.42k in 1951; the latest value is 13% lower. The trend broke around 1961 and 1974: −0.01k → 0k → 0k a year.
Population: 19.7k in 1950 → 39k in 2023 (+98%). The trend broke around 1999 and 2007: +0.27k → −0.05k → +0.49k a year.
Internet: 0% in 1990 → 99% in 2024 (+99 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2004, above 90% since 2013. Fastest growth in 2008–2013: 67.3% → 90.7%.
Urban share: 100% in 1960 → 100% in 2025 (0 pp).
What changed at the same time
The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1982–1992: 2.20 → 1.76. Over the same years: births 0.4k → 0.34k; population 27.6k → 30.9k; urban share 100% → 100%; no data for the others in those years.
Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.31 → 2.11; births 0.36k → 0.37k; population 35.5k → 39k; internet 90.7% → 98.9%; urban share 100% → 100%.
How the indicators relate
Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 24 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.69); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.19).
Forecasts vs actual
Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +1.5%.
Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.96 (−7% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.84 (−13% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.34.
Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +14%.
The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (0.37k, 2023) only around 2035: reality is 12 years ahead of it.
Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.42k (+15% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.5k (+37% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.25k.
Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −0.6%.
The UN 2004 projection expected this level (39k) already around 2013: reality is 10 years behind it.
The UN 2017 projection expected this level (39k) already around 2018: reality is 5 years behind it.
Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 36.8k (−6% vs 2023), 2100 — 47.5k (+22% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 35.8k.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 1998
2023
25 years
40.3k
39k
−3.3%
UN 2000
2023
23 years
38.6k
39k
+0.9%
UN 2002
2023
21 years
39.4k
39k
−1.2%
UN 2004
2023
19 years
43.2k
39k
−9.9%
UN 2006
2023
17 years
34.9k
39k
+11.6%
UN 2008
2023
15 years
34.5k
39k
+13%
UN 2010
2023
13 years
35.5k
39k
+9.8%
UN 2012
2023
11 years
41k
39k
−4.9%
UN 2015
2023
8 years
39k
39k
0%
UN 2017
2023
6 years
39.9k
39k
−2.3%
UN 2019
2023
4 years
40k
39k
−2.7%
UN 2022
2023
1 year
36.3k
39k
+7.3%
Births
births per year
Actual
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 2022
2023
1 year
0.32k
0.37k
+13.9%
Total fertility rate
children per woman
Actual
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 2022
2023
1 year
2.08
2.11
+1.5%
All indicators
Demography
Population
39k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.