Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
Fertility (TFR): 2.11 in 1950 → 1.08 in 2023 (−49%). Peak: 2.91 in 1972; the latest value is 63% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1977, below 1.5 since 1984. The trend broke around 1972 and 1982: +0.03 → −0.14 → −0.01 a year.
Births: 0.09k in 1950 → 0.56k in 2023 (×6). Peak: 0.87k in 2008; the latest value is 36% lower. The trend broke around 1995 and 2009: +0.02k → 0k → −0.02k a year.
Population: 6k in 1950 → 80.9k in 2023 (×13). Low: 5.32k in 1953; ×15 since then. The trend broke around 1965 and 2007: +0.54k → +1.6k → −0.26k a year.
Internet: 0% in 1990 → 94.4% in 2024 (+94 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2007, above 90% since 2017. Fastest growth in 2002–2007: 11.3% → 70.9%.
Urban share: 58.5% in 1960 → 88.9% in 2025 (+30 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1969. The trend broke around 1981: direction reversed (+1.8 → −0.25 a year).
GDP per person (PPP): 50,036 PPP dollars in 1990 → 67,993 PPP dollars in 2025 (+36%). Low: 42,606 PPP dollars in 1993; +60% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2002: −460 → +2,853 → +45 a year.
GDP growth: on average 3.4% in the 2000s, 0.1% in the 2010s, 2.8% in the 2020s. Lowest: −11.2% in 2020; highest: 9.6% in 2022.
Inflation: on average 2.8% in the 2000s, 0.9% in the 2010s, 3.2% in the 2020s. Lowest: −1.2% in 2009; highest: 6.2% in 2022.
What changed at the same time
The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1974–1984: 2.74 → 1.48. Over the same years: births 0.51k → 0.55k; population 26.1k → 42.3k; urban share 84.9% → 95.3%; no data for the others in those years.
Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.14 → 1.08; births 0.68k → 0.56k; population 75.2k → 80.9k; internet 84.4% → 94.2%; urban share 88.6% → 88.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 57,332 PPP dollars → 64,631 PPP dollars; GDP growth −3.5% → 2.6%; inflation 0.5% → 5.6%.
How the indicators relate
Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.75); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.08). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.74); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.65); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.21).
Forecasts vs actual
Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −5.6%.
Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.25 (+15% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.41 (+31% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.91.
Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −2.5%.
Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.44k (−21% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.28k (−50% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.08k.
Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap −2%.
The UN 1998 projection expected this level (80.9k) already around 2000: reality is 23 years behind it.
The UN 2012 projection expected this level (80.9k) already around 2014: reality is 9 years behind it.
Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 82.2k (+2% vs 2023), 2100 — 47.2k (−42% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 31.9k.
GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (7 editions, 2021–2024). On average the outcome was 2.1 pp above the forecast; below it in 14% of cases; typical error ±2.1 pp. The biggest miss was for 2022: IMF, October 2021 expected 4.8%, the outcome was 9.6%.
GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 2.1%, 2028 — 1.7%, 2031 — 1.5%.
Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (7 editions, 2021–2024). On average the outcome was 1.6 pp above the forecast; below it in 43% of cases; typical error ±1.8 pp. The biggest miss was for 2022: IMF, October 2021 expected 1.5%, the outcome was 6.2%.
Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 3%, 2028 — 2%, 2031 — 2%.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 1998
2023
25 years
149k
80.9k
−45.7%
UN 2000
2023
23 years
175k
80.9k
−53.8%
UN 2002
2023
21 years
111k
80.9k
−27.3%
UN 2004
2023
19 years
66.7k
80.9k
+21.2%
UN 2006
2023
17 years
74.6k
80.9k
+8.4%
UN 2008
2023
15 years
104k
80.9k
−22.3%
UN 2010
2023
13 years
102k
80.9k
−21.1%
UN 2012
2023
11 years
85.1k
80.9k
−5%
UN 2015
2023
8 years
70.2k
80.9k
+15.3%
UN 2017
2023
6 years
77.5k
80.9k
+4.3%
UN 2019
2023
4 years
77.6k
80.9k
+4.2%
UN 2022
2023
1 year
80.1k
80.9k
+1%
Births
births per year
Actual
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 2022
2023
1 year
0.57k
0.56k
−2.5%
Total fertility rate
children per woman
Actual
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 2022
2023
1 year
1.15
1.08
−5.6%
IMF forecasts vs actual
Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.
Real GDP growth
% per year
Actual (IMF)
WEO, April editions
Indicator
Forecasts
Mean error
Mean absolute error
Actual below forecast
Real GDP growth
7
+2.1 pp
2.1 pp
14%
Inflation
7
+1.6 pp
1.8 pp
43%
Unemployment rate
7
−0.3 pp
0.3 pp
100%
Government gross debt
5
−5.2 pp
5.2 pp
100%
All indicators
Demography
Population
80.9k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.