Population
1.37M persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Estonia
All indicators of the Macroscope base for Estonia, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
GDP per capita, PPP
41,604
constant 2021 international $, 2025
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 2.27 in 1950 → 1.35 in 2023 (−41%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1990, below 1.5 since 2022. The trend broke around 1989 and 1995: 0 → −0.13 → +0.01 a year.
- Births: 20.1k in 1950 → 11k in 2023 (−45%). Peak: 24.9k in 1987; the latest value is 56% lower. The trend broke around 1989 and 1995: +0.12k → −1.66k → +0.01k a year.
- Population: 1.1M in 1950 → 1.37M in 2023 (+24%). Peak: 1.57M in 1990; the latest value is 13% lower. The trend broke around 1989 and 2002: +12.1k → −17.9k → −1.24k a year.
- Internet: 0% in 1990 → 92.2% in 2024 (+92 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1998, above 50% since 2004, above 90% since 2021. Fastest growth in 1999–2004: 14.5% → 53.2%.
- Urban share: 57.6% in 1960 → 70.7% in 2025 (+13 pp). The trend broke around 1984 and 2003: +0.54 → −0.28 → +0.17 a year.
- GDP per person (PPP): 19,161 PPP dollars in 1990 → 41,604 PPP dollars in 2025 (+117%). Low: 13,757 PPP dollars in 1993; ×3 since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2006: −482 → +1,677 → +663 a year.
- GDP growth: on average 3.7% in the 1990s, 4.4% in the 2000s, 3.7% in the 2010s, 0.3% in the 2020s. Lowest: −14.6% in 2009; highest: 13.1% in 1997.
- Inflation: on average 19.6% in the 1990s, 4.4% in the 2000s, 2.6% in the 2010s, 6.8% in the 2020s. Lowest: −0.6% in 2020; highest: 47.7% in 1994.
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1988–1998: 2.27 → 1.27. Over the same years: births 24.9k → 12.2k; population 1.56M → 1.41M; internet 10.8% (1998); urban share 71.4% → 67.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 18,872 PPP dollars (1998); GDP growth 4.3% (1998); inflation 8.8% (1998).
- Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.52 → 1.35; births 13.6k → 11k; population 1.32M → 1.37M; internet 80% → 93.2%; urban share 68.1% → 70.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 34,481 PPP dollars → 41,285 PPP dollars; GDP growth 1.8% → −2.7%; inflation 3.2% → 9.1%.
How the indicators relate
- Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 33 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.30); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.49).
- Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.08); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.25).
- Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.26); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.47).
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −2%.
- The UN 1998 projection expected this level (1.35) already around 2012: reality is 11 years behind it.
- The UN 2000 projection expected this level (1.35) already around 2015: reality is 8 years behind it.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.51 (+12% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.57 (+17% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.07.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +1.1%.
- The UN 2000 projection expected this level (11k) already around 2014: reality is 9 years behind it.
- The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (11k, 2023) only around 2038: reality is 15 years ahead of it.
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 9.78k (−11% vs 2023), 2100 — 6.1k (−45% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 2.07k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 12; median gap +7.4%.
- The UN 2000 projection expected this level (1.37M) already around 2001: reality is 22 years behind it.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.17M (−14% vs 2023), 2100 — 826k (−40% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 555k.
- GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 2.1 pp below the forecast; below it in 61% of cases; typical error ±3.7 pp. The biggest miss was for 2009: IMF, April 2008 expected 3.7%, the outcome was −14.6%.
- GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 1.4%, 2028 — 2.3%, 2031 — 1.7%.
- Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 1.4 pp above the forecast; below it in 42% of cases; typical error ±2.9 pp. The biggest miss was for 2022: IMF, April 2021 expected 2.5%, the outcome was 19.4%.
- Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 3.8%, 2028 — 2.8%, 2031 — 2.3%.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2023 | 25 years | 1.15M | 1.37M | +19.3% |
| UN 2000 | 2023 | 23 years | 1.09M | 1.37M | +25.7% |
| UN 2002 | 2023 | 21 years | 1.05M | 1.37M | +30.6% |
| UN 2004 | 2023 | 19 years | 1.26M | 1.37M | +8.7% |
| UN 2006 | 2023 | 17 years | 1.26M | 1.37M | +8.3% |
| UN 2008 | 2023 | 15 years | 1.33M | 1.37M | +3.1% |
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 1.32M | 1.37M | +3.4% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 1.25M | 1.37M | +9.6% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 1.28M | 1.37M | +6.6% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 1.29M | 1.37M | +6% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 1.32M | 1.37M | +3.8% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 1.32M | 1.37M | +3.3% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2015–2020 | 20 years | 10.1k | 13.9k | +38.1% |
| UN 2000 | 2015–2020 | 18 years | 10.6k | 13.9k | +31.1% |
| UN 2002 | 2015–2020 | 16 years | 10.3k | 13.9k | +35.7% |
| UN 2004 | 2015–2020 | 14 years | 13.5k | 13.9k | +3.6% |
| UN 2006 | 2015–2020 | 12 years | 13.8k | 13.9k | +1.2% |
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 16.5k | 13.9k | −15.2% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 15.7k | 13.9k | −11.3% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 13.8k | 13.9k | +1.1% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 14k | 13.9k | −0.6% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 14k | 13.9k | −0.1% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 13.1k | 11k | −15.7% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2015–2020 | 20 years | 1.43 | 1.62 | +13.9% |
| UN 2000 | 2015–2020 | 18 years | 1.40 | 1.62 | +15.9% |
| UN 2002 | 2015–2020 | 16 years | 1.38 | 1.62 | +17.6% |
| UN 2004 | 2015–2020 | 14 years | 1.57 | 1.62 | +3.2% |
| UN 2006 | 2015–2020 | 12 years | 1.59 | 1.62 | +2.3% |
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 1.84 | 1.62 | −11.6% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 1.76 | 1.62 | −7.6% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 1.66 | 1.62 | −2.2% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 1.66 | 1.62 | −2% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 1.66 | 1.62 | −2.2% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 1.68 | 1.35 | −19.5% |
IMF forecasts vs actual
Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.
Real GDP growth
% per year
- Actual (IMF)
- WEO, April editions
| Indicator | Forecasts | Mean error | Mean absolute error | Actual below forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 36 | −2.1 pp | 3.7 pp | 61% |
| Inflation | 36 | +1.4 pp | 2.9 pp | 42% |
| Unemployment rate | 29 | −0.6 pp | 1.4 pp | 62% |
| Government gross debt | 26 | +1 pp | 2.8 pp | 35% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
11k births per year latest value, 2023
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Total fertility rate
1.35 children per woman latest value, 2023
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
83 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
74.9 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
41.9 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
31 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
106.1 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
5.72k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
34.5 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).
Digitalisation
Internet users
92.2 % of population latest value, 2024
Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.
Mobile cellular subscriptions
151.1 per 100 people latest value, 2024
Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.
Fixed broadband subscriptions
35.4 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2024
Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.
Economy
GDP per capita, PPP
41,604 constant 2021 international $ latest value, 2025
Gross domestic product per person at purchasing power parity, constant 2021 international dollars (World Bank, ICP).
Real GDP growth
0.6 % per year latest value, 2025
Annual change of GDP at constant prices. Actual values and forecasts from IMF WEO editions.
Inflation
4.8 % per year, average latest value, 2025
Change of the annual average consumer price index (IMF WEO).
Government gross debt
23.5 % of GDP latest value, 2024
General government gross debt, percent of GDP (IMF WEO).
Unemployment rate
7.4 % of labour force latest value, 2025
Unemployed as a share of the labour force (IMF WEO; national definitions).
GDP per capita, US dollars
34,325 current US dollars latest value, 2025
GDP per person in current US dollars at market exchange rates (IMF WEO).
Society
Urban population
70.7 % of population latest value, 2025
Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).
Tertiary enrolment, women
79.2 % gross latest value, 2024
Women enrolled in tertiary education as a share of women in the five-year age group after secondary school; can exceed 100 (UNESCO).
Women with upper secondary education
89.2 % of women 25+ latest value, 2023
Share of women aged 25+ who completed at least upper secondary education (UNESCO).
Life expectancy at birth
79.3 years latest value, 2024
Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).
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