Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
Fertility (TFR): 2.82 in 1950 → 1.28 in 2025 (−55%). Low: 1.14 in 1999; +13% since then. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1980, below 1.5 since 2023. The trend broke around 1991 and 1997: −0.02 → −0.12 → +0.02 a year.
Births: 189k in 1950 → 77.6k in 2025 (−59%). Peak: 195k in 1974; the latest value is 60% lower. The trend broke around 1978 and 1996: +0.29k → −3.53k → +0.23k a year.
Population: 8.92M in 1950 → 10.8M in 2023 (+21%). The trend broke around 1982 and 2002: +39.4k → −3.95k → +20.4k a year.
Internet: 0% in 1990 → 87.7% in 2024 (+88 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2001, above 50% since 2007. Fastest growth in 2005–2010: 35.3% → 68.8%.
Urban share: 59.6% in 1960 → 72.9% in 2025 (+13 pp). The trend broke around 1975 and 1982: +0.53 → +1.2 → −0.08 a year.
GDP per person (PPP): 27,918 PPP dollars in 1990 → 49,292 PPP dollars in 2025 (+77%). Low: 24,574 PPP dollars in 1993; +101% since then. The trend broke around 2000 and 2006: +346 → +1,399 → +656 a year.
GDP growth: on average 1.2% in the 1990s, 3.3% in the 2000s, 2.5% in the 2010s, 0.9% in the 2020s. Lowest: −5.3% in 2020; highest: 6.6% in 2006.
Inflation: on average 7.5% in the 1990s, 2.8% in the 2000s, 1.7% in the 2010s, 6.3% in the 2020s. Lowest: 0.1% in 2003; highest: 15.1% in 2022.
What changed at the same time
The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1988–1998: 1.93 → 1.16. Over the same years: births 131k → 90k; population 10.3M → 10.3M; internet 3.9% (1998); urban share 75.3% → 74.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 27,801 PPP dollars (1998); GDP growth −0.4% (1998); inflation 10.6% (1998).
Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.59 → 1.28; births 111k → 77.6k; population 10.5M (2015); internet 75.7% → 87.7%; urban share 73% → 72.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 42,067 PPP dollars → 49,292 PPP dollars; GDP growth 5% → 2.5%; inflation 0.3% → 2.5%.
How the indicators relate
Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 33 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.56); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.29).
Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.56); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.20).
Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.34); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.25).
Forecasts vs actual
Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −3.6%.
The UN 1998 projection expected this level (1.28) already around 2012: reality is 13 years behind it.
The UN 2004 projection expected this level (1.28) already around 2012: reality is 13 years behind it.
Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.57 (+22% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.62 (+26% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.12.
Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −3.8%.
The UN 1998 projection expected this level (77.6k) already around 2016: reality is 9 years behind it.
The UN 2017 projection did not expect today's level (77.6k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2097).
National statistics for 2025: 77.6k, 11% below the UN 2024 medium variant (86.9k).
Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 89.1k (+15% vs 2025), 2100 — 69.9k (−10% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 27.7k.
Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +2.7%.
Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 9.83M (−9% vs 2023), 2100 — 8.23M (−24% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 5.71M.
GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 1.2 pp below the forecast; below it in 58% of cases; typical error ±2.3 pp. The biggest miss was for 2009: IMF, April 2008 expected 4.7%, the outcome was −4.8%.
GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 2.2%, 2028 — 2.1%, 2031 — 1.8%.
Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 1 pp above the forecast; below it in 42% of cases; typical error ±2 pp. The biggest miss was for 2022: IMF, April 2021 expected 2%, the outcome was 15.1%.
Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 2.4%, 2028 — 2.5%, 2031 — 2%.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 1998
2023
25 years
9.61M
10.8M
+12.5%
UN 2000
2023
23 years
9.8M
10.8M
+10.3%
UN 2002
2023
21 years
9.87M
10.8M
+9.5%
UN 2004
2023
19 years
9.83M
10.8M
+10%
UN 2006
2023
17 years
9.97M
10.8M
+8.4%
UN 2008
2023
15 years
10.6M
10.8M
+2.2%
UN 2010
2023
13 years
10.8M
10.8M
+0.3%
UN 2012
2023
11 years
11M
10.8M
−1.6%
UN 2015
2023
8 years
10.6M
10.8M
+2.3%
UN 2017
2023
6 years
10.6M
10.8M
+1.7%
UN 2019
2023
4 years
10.7M
10.8M
+0.6%
UN 2022
2023
1 year
10.5M
10.8M
+3%
Births
births per year
Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 1998
2020–2025
24 years
70.9k
95.8k
+35.2%
UN 2000
2020–2025
22 years
75.8k
95.8k
+26.4%
UN 2002
2020–2025
20 years
79.1k
95.8k
+21%
UN 2004
2020–2025
18 years
78.4k
95.8k
+22.1%
UN 2006
2020–2025
16 years
78.7k
95.8k
+21.7%
UN 2008
2020–2025
14 years
99.3k
95.8k
−3.5%
UN 2010
2020–2025
12 years
108k
95.8k
−11.1%
UN 2012
2020–2025
10 years
109k
95.8k
−12.1%
UN 2015
2020–2025
8 years
99.7k
95.8k
−4%
UN 2017
2020–2025
6 years
101k
95.8k
−5.3%
UN 2019
2020–2025
4 years
104k
95.8k
−8.1%
UN 2022
2025
3 years
96.9k
77.6k
−19.9%
Total fertility rate
children per woman
Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 1998
2020–2025
24 years
1.43
1.55
+9.1%
UN 2000
2020–2025
22 years
1.45
1.55
+7.3%
UN 2002
2020–2025
20 years
1.51
1.55
+2.9%
UN 2004
2020–2025
18 years
1.43
1.55
+9.1%
UN 2006
2020–2025
16 years
1.40
1.55
+11.3%
UN 2008
2020–2025
14 years
1.62
1.55
−4.3%
UN 2010
2020–2025
12 years
1.65
1.55
−6%
UN 2012
2020–2025
10 years
1.71
1.55
−9.2%
UN 2015
2020–2025
8 years
1.60
1.55
−3%
UN 2017
2020–2025
6 years
1.63
1.55
−4.7%
UN 2019
2020–2025
4 years
1.68
1.55
−7.6%
UN 2022
2025
3 years
1.70
1.28
−24.8%
IMF forecasts vs actual
Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.
Real GDP growth
% per year
Actual (IMF)
WEO, April editions
Indicator
Forecasts
Mean error
Mean absolute error
Actual below forecast
Real GDP growth
36
−1.2 pp
2.3 pp
58%
Inflation
36
+1 pp
2 pp
42%
Unemployment rate
32
−0.8 pp
1.1 pp
69%
Government gross debt
26
−2.4 pp
3.6 pp
77%
All indicators
Demography
Population
10.8M persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.