Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
Fertility (TFR): 2.71 in 1950 → 1.54 in 2023 (−43%). Peak: 2.96 in 1965; the latest value is 48% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1970. The trend broke around 1963 and 1981: +0.01 → −0.07 → 0 a year.
Births: 0.29k in 1950 → 0.37k in 2023 (+26%). Peak: 0.43k in 1999; the latest value is 13% lower. The trend broke around 1965 and 1998: +0.01k → 0k → 0k a year.
Population: 13.8k in 1950 → 39.6k in 2023 (×2.9).
Internet: 0% in 1990 → 98.3% in 2024 (+98 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2002, above 90% since 2013. Fastest growth in 2000–2005: 36.5% → 63.4%.
Urban share: 20.4% in 1960 → 14.6% in 2025 (−5.8 pp). The trend broke around 1993 and 2003: −0.1 → −0.23 → +0.01 a year.
GDP growth: on average 0.8% in the 2000s, 2.1% in the 2010s, 2.8% in the 2020s. Lowest: −11.9% in 2009; highest: 18% in 2021.
Inflation: on average 0.9% in the 2000s, 0.0% in the 2010s, 1.0% in the 2020s. Lowest: −1.1% in 2015; highest: 2.8% in 2022.
What changed at the same time
The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1965–1975: 2.96 → 1.90. Over the same years: births 0.42k → 0.37k; population 18.6k → 23.2k; urban share 19.6% → 18.3%; no data for the others in those years.
Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.46 → 1.54; births 0.34k → 0.37k; population 36.9k → 39.6k; internet 93.8% → 98.1%; urban share 14.4% → 14.7%; GDP growth 5% → 3.4%; inflation −0.2% → 2.1%.
How the indicators relate
Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 24 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.10); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.01).
Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.78); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Forecasts vs actual
Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +3%.
Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.56 (+1% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.59 (+3% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.09.
Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +3.1%.
Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.37k (+1% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.36k (−3% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.16k.
Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +0.1%.
The UN 2004 projection expected today's level (39.6k, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.
The UN 2012 projection expected today's level (39.6k, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.
Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 43k (+9% vs 2023), 2100 — 43.6k (+10% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 32.4k.
GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2024 — −0.3%, 2026 — 0.4%, 2030 — 1.5%.
Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 0.5%, 2028 — 0.7%, 2031 — 0.7%.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 1998
2023
25 years
40.8k
39.6k
−2.8%
UN 2000
2023
23 years
39k
39.6k
+1.6%
UN 2002
2023
21 years
38k
39.6k
+4.3%
UN 2004
2023
19 years
39.5k
39.6k
+0.2%
UN 2006
2023
17 years
39.9k
39.6k
−0.7%
UN 2008
2023
15 years
39.8k
39.6k
−0.4%
UN 2010
2023
13 years
39.7k
39.6k
−0.4%
UN 2012
2023
11 years
39.6k
39.6k
0%
UN 2015
2023
8 years
39.5k
39.6k
+0.3%
UN 2017
2023
6 years
39.4k
39.6k
+0.6%
UN 2019
2023
4 years
38.5k
39.6k
+2.8%
UN 2022
2023
1 year
39.6k
39.6k
0%
Births
births per year
Actual
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 2022
2023
1 year
0.36k
0.37k
+3.1%
Total fertility rate
children per woman
Actual
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 2022
2023
1 year
1.49
1.54
+3%
IMF forecasts vs actual
Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.
Real GDP growth
% per year
Actual (IMF)
WEO, April editions
All indicators
Demography
Population
39.6k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.