Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
Fertility (TFR): 3.62 in 1950 → 1.40 in 2023 (−61%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1974, below 1.5 since 2014. The trend broke around 1961 and 1974: 0 → −0.13 → −0.01 a year.
Births: 1.15k in 1950 → 0.52k in 2023 (−54%). The trend broke around 1979 and 1991: −0.01k → +0.01k → −0.01k a year.
Population: 37.2k in 1950 → 64.7k in 2023 (+74%). The trend broke around 1970 and 2006: +0.75k → +0.33k → +0.09k a year.
Internet: 0% in 1990 → 98.4% in 2017 (+98 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1996, above 50% since 2002, above 90% since 2012. Fastest growth in 1995–2000: 6.8% → 42.9%.
Urban share: 99.7% in 1960 → 100% in 2025 (+0.3 pp). The trend broke around 1966: direction reversed (+0.02 → 0 a year).
GDP per person (PPP): 79,751 PPP dollars in 1990 → 104,300 PPP dollars in 2024 (+31%). Peak: 118,696 PPP dollars in 2007; the latest value is 12% lower. The trend broke around 2007 and 2014: +2,699 → −3,482 → +799 a year.
What changed at the same time
The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1963–1973: 3.48 → 2.14. Over the same years: births 1.11k → 0.87k; population 45.3k → 53k; urban share 100% → 100%; no data for the others in those years.
Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.52 → 1.40; births 0.6k → 0.52k; population 63.6k → 64.7k; internet 95.3% (2013); urban share 100% → 100%; GDP per person (PPP) 96,554 PPP dollars → 102,269 PPP dollars.
How the indicators relate
Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2017, 24 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.44); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.06).
Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.39); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09).
Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.25); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.29).
Forecasts vs actual
Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +2.1%.
Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.47 (+5% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.53 (+9% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.03.
Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +11%.
Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.4k (−23% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.24k (−54% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.08k.
Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 8 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −1.9%.
Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 56.9k (−12% vs 2023), 2100 — 35.7k (−45% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 23.8k.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 1998
2023
25 years
74.9k
64.7k
−13.6%
UN 2000
2023
23 years
72.1k
64.7k
−10.3%
UN 2002
2023
21 years
90k
64.7k
−28.1%
UN 2004
2023
19 years
66k
64.7k
−1.9%
UN 2006
2023
17 years
66k
64.7k
−1.9%
UN 2008
2023
15 years
66k
64.7k
−1.9%
UN 2010
2023
13 years
66.4k
64.7k
−2.5%
UN 2012
2023
11 years
66.3k
64.7k
−2.5%
UN 2015
2023
8 years
60.3k
64.7k
+7.4%
UN 2017
2023
6 years
60.3k
64.7k
+7.4%
UN 2019
2023
4 years
61.8k
64.7k
+4.7%
UN 2022
2023
1 year
64.1k
64.7k
+1%
Births
births per year
Actual
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 2022
2023
1 year
0.47k
0.52k
+11.1%
Total fertility rate
children per woman
Actual
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 2022
2023
1 year
1.37
1.40
+2.1%
All indicators
Demography
Population
64.7k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.