Jamaica

Births

33k

births per year, 2023

Total fertility rate

1.36

children per woman, 2023

Median age

31.7

years, 2023

Internet users

90.1

% of population, 2024

Mobile cellular subscriptions

117.7

per 100 people, 2024

GDP per capita, PPP

11,358

constant 2021 international $, 2025

Urban population

59.4

% of population, 2025

What the data shows

Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.

How the indicators changed

Fertility (TFR): 3.92 in 1950 → 1.36 in 2023 (−65%). Peak: 5.79 in 1964; the latest value is 77% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 2006, below 1.5 since 2016. The trend broke around 1965 and 1981: +0.15 → −0.16 → −0.06 a year.
Births: 46k in 1950 → 33k in 2023 (−28%). Peak: 67.9k in 1964; the latest value is 51% lower. The trend broke around 1959 and 1994: +2.25k → −0.14k → −1.08k a year.
Population: 1.41M in 1950 → 2.84M in 2023 (+102%).
Internet: 0% in 1990 → 90.1% in 2024 (+90 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2004, above 50% since 2017, above 90% since 2024. Fastest growth in 2016–2021: 44.4% → 82.4%.
Urban share: 29.7% in 1960 → 59.4% in 2025 (+30 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1993. The trend broke around 1974: change slowed down (+1.1 → +0.24 a year).
GDP per person (PPP): 8,880 PPP dollars in 1990 → 11,358 PPP dollars in 2025 (+28%). The trend broke around 2007 and 2013: +59 → −116 → +139 a year.
GDP growth: on average 2.3% in the 1980s, 1.3% in the 1990s, 0.9% in the 2000s, 1.1% in the 2010s, 1.2% in the 2020s. Lowest: −8.3% in 2020; highest: 7.7% in 1987.
Inflation: on average 17.2% in the 1980s, 28.1% in the 1990s, 11.0% in the 2000s, 6.3% in the 2010s, 6.2% in the 2020s. Lowest: 2.4% in 2016; highest: 77.3% in 1992.

What changed at the same time

The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1970–1980: 5.35 → 3.59. Over the same years: births 63.5k → 60.7k; population 1.88M → 2.15M; urban share 41.4% → 47.2%; GDP growth −4% (1980); inflation 18% (1980); no data for the others in those years.
Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.59 → 1.36; births 38.9k → 33k; population 2.78M → 2.84M; internet 37.1% → 89.5%; urban share 54.5% → 58.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 9,840 PPP dollars → 11,399 PPP dollars; GDP growth 0.2% → 2.7%; inflation 9.4% → 6.5%.

How the indicators relate

Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.89); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.00). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.34). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.56); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.37).

Forecasts vs actual

Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −32%.
The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (1.36, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).
The UN 2019 projection did not expect today's level (1.36, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).
Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.41 (+4% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.50 (+10% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.00.
Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −28%.
The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (33k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).
The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (33k, 2023) only around 2048: reality is 25 years ahead of it.
Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 18.7k (−43% vs 2023), 2100 — 7.1k (−78% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.81k.
Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −2.2%.
The UN 1998 projection expected this level (2.84M) already around 2010: reality is 13 years behind it.
The UN 2002 projection expected this level (2.84M) already around 2010: reality is 13 years behind it.
Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.46M (−14% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.07M (−62% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 507k.
GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (34 editions, 2007–2023). On average the outcome was 1.3 pp below the forecast; below it in 71% of cases; typical error ±1.9 pp. The biggest miss was for 2020: IMF, April 2019 expected 1.9%, the outcome was −8.3%.
GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2025 — −0.1%, 2027 — 3.1%, 2031 — 1.5%.
Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 0.6 pp above the forecast; below it in 44% of cases; typical error ±2.6 pp. The biggest miss was for 2008: IMF, April 2007 expected 6.1%, the outcome was 22%.
Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 6.1%, 2028 — 5%, 2031 — 5%.

UN projections vs actual

Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.

Population

persons, 1 July

Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium

Release	Target period	Horizon	Expected	Actual	Actual vs expected
UN 1998	2023	25 years	3.18M	2.84M	−10.8%
UN 2000	2023	23 years	3.2M	2.84M	−11.4%
UN 2002	2023	21 years	3.21M	2.84M	−11.6%
UN 2004	2023	19 years	2.8M	2.84M	+1.5%
UN 2006	2023	17 years	2.9M	2.84M	−1.9%
UN 2008	2023	15 years	2.86M	2.84M	−0.6%
UN 2010	2023	13 years	2.84M	2.84M	−0.1%
UN 2012	2023	11 years	2.91M	2.84M	−2.4%
UN 2015	2023	8 years	2.86M	2.84M	−0.7%
UN 2017	2023	6 years	2.93M	2.84M	−3%
UN 2019	2023	4 years	3M	2.84M	−5.2%
UN 2022	2023	1 year	2.83M	2.84M	+0.5%

Births

births per year

Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium

Release	Target period	Horizon	Expected	Actual	Actual vs expected
UN 1998	2015–2020	20 years	48.9k	35.3k	−27.8%
UN 2000	2015–2020	18 years	51.5k	35.3k	−31.5%
UN 2002	2015–2020	16 years	50.4k	35.3k	−29.9%
UN 2004	2015–2020	14 years	48.3k	35.3k	−26.9%
UN 2006	2015–2020	12 years	51k	35.3k	−30.7%
UN 2008	2015–2020	10 years	50.3k	35.3k	−29.8%
UN 2010	2015–2020	8 years	48.1k	35.3k	−26.6%
UN 2012	2015–2020	6 years	49.5k	35.3k	−28.6%
UN 2015	2015–2020	2 years	47.2k	35.3k	−25.3%
UN 2017	2015–2020	0 years	47.3k	35.3k	−25.4%
UN 2022	2023	1 year	32.2k	33k	+2.4%

Total fertility rate

children per woman

Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium

Release	Target period	Horizon	Expected	Actual	Actual vs expected
UN 1998	2015–2020	20 years	2.10	1.43	−32.1%
UN 2000	2015–2020	18 years	2.10	1.43	−32.1%
UN 2002	2015–2020	16 years	2.04	1.43	−30.2%
UN 2004	2015–2020	14 years	2.11	1.43	−32.4%
UN 2006	2015–2020	12 years	2.20	1.43	−35.1%
UN 2008	2015–2020	10 years	2.17	1.43	−34.4%
UN 2010	2015–2020	8 years	2.15	1.43	−33.5%
UN 2012	2015–2020	6 years	2.16	1.43	−34%
UN 2015	2015–2020	2 years	1.99	1.43	−28.4%
UN 2017	2015–2020	0 years	1.99	1.43	−28.4%
UN 2022	2023	1 year	1.34	1.36	+1.6%

IMF forecasts vs actual

Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.

Real GDP growth

% per year

Actual (IMF)
WEO, April editions

Indicator	Forecasts	Mean error	Mean absolute error	Actual below forecast
Real GDP growth	34	−1.3 pp	1.9 pp	71%
Inflation	36	+0.6 pp	2.6 pp	44%
Unemployment rate	19	−0.5 pp	1.8 pp	63%
Government gross debt	26	−7.5 pp	10.8 pp	81%

All indicators

Demography

Population

2.84M persons, 1 July latest value, 2023

Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.

Births

33k births per year latest value, 2023

Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).

Total fertility rate

1.36 children per woman latest value, 2023

Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.

Life expectancy at birth, women

74 years latest value, 2023

Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).

Life expectancy at birth, men

69 years latest value, 2023

Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).

Median age

31.7 years latest value, 2023

Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).

Mean age of mothers at childbirth

27.9 years latest value, 2023

Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).

Sex ratio at birth

103.9 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023

Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).

Net migration

−10k persons per year latest value, 2023

Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).

Old-age dependency

11.2 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020

Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).

Digitalisation

Internet users

90.1 % of population latest value, 2024

Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.

Mobile cellular subscriptions

117.7 per 100 people latest value, 2024

Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.

Fixed broadband subscriptions

16 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2024

Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.

Economy

GDP per capita, PPP

11,358 constant 2021 international $ latest value, 2025

Gross domestic product per person at purchasing power parity, constant 2021 international dollars (World Bank, ICP).

Real GDP growth

−0.5 % per year latest value, 2024

Annual change of GDP at constant prices. Actual values and forecasts from IMF WEO editions.

Inflation

3.9 % per year, average latest value, 2025

Change of the annual average consumer price index (IMF WEO).

Government gross debt

62.5 % of GDP latest value, 2024

General government gross debt, percent of GDP (IMF WEO).

Unemployment rate

3.4 % of labour force latest value, 2025

Unemployed as a share of the labour force (IMF WEO; national definitions).

GDP per capita, US dollars

7,965 current US dollars latest value, 2024

GDP per person in current US dollars at market exchange rates (IMF WEO).

Society

Urban population

59.4 % of population latest value, 2025

Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).

Tertiary enrolment, women

33.4 % gross latest value, 2015

Women enrolled in tertiary education as a share of women in the five-year age group after secondary school; can exceed 100 (UNESCO).

Women with upper secondary education

59.8 % of women 25+ latest value, 2022

Share of women aged 25+ who completed at least upper secondary education (UNESCO).

Life expectancy at birth

71.6 years latest value, 2024

Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).