Population
399k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Bahamas
All indicators of the Macroscope base for Bahamas, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
GDP per capita, PPP
36,244
constant 2021 international $, 2024
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 4.52 in 1950 → 1.37 in 2023 (−70%). Peak: 5.16 in 1961; the latest value is 73% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 2000, below 1.5 since 2016. The trend broke around 1963 and 1979: +0.05 → −0.15 → −0.03 a year.
- Births: 3.07k in 1950 → 4.34k in 2023 (+41%). Peak: 6.85k in 1992; the latest value is 37% lower. The trend broke around 1966 and 1996: +0.16k → +0.02k → −0.07k a year.
- Population: 83.5k in 1950 → 399k in 2023 (×4.8). The trend broke around 2013: change slowed down (+4.53k → +1.97k a year).
- Internet: 0% in 1990 → 92.5% in 2024 (+92 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2001, above 50% since 2011, above 90% since 2019. Fastest growth in 2007–2012: 27% → 71.7%.
- Urban share: 57.6% in 1960 → 81.3% in 2025 (+24 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1983. The trend broke around 1988 and 2011: +0.84 → +0.11 → −0.09 a year.
- GDP per person (PPP): 33,072 PPP dollars in 1990 → 36,244 PPP dollars in 2024 (+10%). Low: 26,453 PPP dollars in 2020; +37% since then. The trend broke around 2005 and 2018: +392 → −317 → +590 a year.
- GDP growth: on average 3.5% in the 1980s, 2.2% in the 1990s, 1.0% in the 2000s, 1.1% in the 2010s, 3.0% in the 2020s. Lowest: −20.1% in 2020; highest: 17.6% in 2021.
- Inflation: on average 6.3% in the 1980s, 2.8% in the 1990s, 2.3% in the 2000s, 1.6% in the 2010s, 2.4% in the 2020s. Lowest: −0.3% in 2016; highest: 12.2% in 1980.
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1967–1977: 4.69 → 3.17. Over the same years: births 5.66k → 5.32k; population 162k → 219k; urban share 61.9% → 70.6%; no data for the others in those years.
- Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.74 → 1.37; births 5.27k → 4.34k; population 379k → 399k; internet 72% → 92.4%; urban share 82.4% → 81.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 32,403 PPP dollars → 35,221 PPP dollars; GDP growth −2.9% → 3%; inflation 0.4% → 3.1%.
How the indicators relate
- Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.19). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
- Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.26). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
- Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.26); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.18).
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −24%.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.41 (+3% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.51 (+10% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.01.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −20%.
- The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (4.34k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).
- The UN 2017 projection did not expect today's level (4.34k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.77k (−13% vs 2023), 2100 — 3.36k (−22% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.34k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap −0.2%.
- The UN 1998 projection expected this level (399k) already around 2021: reality is 2 years behind it.
- The UN 2019 projection expected this level (399k) already around 2021: reality is 2 years behind it.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 424k (+6% vs 2023), 2100 — 385k (−4% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 263k.
- GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (34 editions, 2007–2023). On average the outcome was 1.6 pp below the forecast; below it in 62% of cases; typical error ±4.3 pp. The biggest miss was for 2020: IMF, April 2019 expected 1.6%, the outcome was −20.1%.
- GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2025 — 2.8%, 2027 — 1.9%, 2031 — 1.5%.
- Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (34 editions, 2007–2023). On average the outcome was 0.3 pp below the forecast; below it in 56% of cases; typical error ±1.3 pp. The biggest miss was for 2024: IMF, April 2023 expected 3.4%, the outcome was 0.4%.
- Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2025 — 0.6%, 2027 — 1.9%, 2031 — 2%.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2023 | 25 years | 407k | 399k | −1.8% |
| UN 2000 | 2023 | 23 years | 386k | 399k | +3.5% |
| UN 2002 | 2023 | 21 years | 370k | 399k | +8% |
| UN 2004 | 2023 | 19 years | 396k | 399k | +0.8% |
| UN 2006 | 2023 | 17 years | 391k | 399k | +2.2% |
| UN 2008 | 2023 | 15 years | 395k | 399k | +1.1% |
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 393k | 399k | +1.5% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 422k | 399k | −5.4% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 422k | 399k | −5.3% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 418k | 399k | −4.4% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 404k | 399k | −1.2% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 413k | 399k | −3.2% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2015–2020 | 20 years | 6.16k | 4.52k | −26.7% |
| UN 2000 | 2015–2020 | 18 years | 6.03k | 4.52k | −25.2% |
| UN 2002 | 2015–2020 | 16 years | 5.62k | 4.52k | −19.6% |
| UN 2004 | 2015–2020 | 14 years | 6k | 4.52k | −24.7% |
| UN 2006 | 2015–2020 | 12 years | 5.59k | 4.52k | −19.3% |
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 5.61k | 4.52k | −19.5% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 5.38k | 4.52k | −16.1% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 5.92k | 4.52k | −23.7% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 5.82k | 4.52k | −22.4% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 5.58k | 4.52k | −19.1% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 4.67k | 4.34k | −7.2% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2015–2020 | 20 years | 2.10 | 1.44 | −31.4% |
| UN 2000 | 2015–2020 | 18 years | 2.10 | 1.44 | −31.4% |
| UN 2002 | 2015–2020 | 16 years | 1.99 | 1.44 | −27.8% |
| UN 2004 | 2015–2020 | 14 years | 2.02 | 1.44 | −28.8% |
| UN 2006 | 2015–2020 | 12 years | 1.88 | 1.44 | −23.5% |
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 1.88 | 1.44 | −23.5% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 1.85 | 1.44 | −22% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 1.87 | 1.44 | −23% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 1.83 | 1.44 | −21.4% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 1.76 | 1.44 | −18% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 1.37 | 1.37 | −0.1% |
IMF forecasts vs actual
Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.
Real GDP growth
% per year
- Actual (IMF)
- WEO, April editions
| Indicator | Forecasts | Mean error | Mean absolute error | Actual below forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 34 | −1.6 pp | 4.3 pp | 62% |
| Inflation | 34 | −0.3 pp | 1.3 pp | 56% |
| Unemployment rate | 27 | +1.3 pp | 4.1 pp | 52% |
| Government gross debt | 26 | −7.2 pp | 9.9 pp | 81% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
4.34k births per year latest value, 2023
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Total fertility rate
1.37 children per woman latest value, 2023
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
78.2 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
70.9 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
34.6 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
28.8 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
102.8 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
1k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
17.6 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).
Digitalisation
Internet users
92.5 % of population latest value, 2024
Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.
Mobile cellular subscriptions
96.7 per 100 people latest value, 2024
Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.
Fixed broadband subscriptions
25.3 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2024
Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.
Economy
GDP per capita, PPP
36,244 constant 2021 international $ latest value, 2024
Gross domestic product per person at purchasing power parity, constant 2021 international dollars (World Bank, ICP).
Real GDP growth
3.4 % per year latest value, 2024
Annual change of GDP at constant prices. Actual values and forecasts from IMF WEO editions.
Inflation
0.4 % per year, average latest value, 2024
Change of the annual average consumer price index (IMF WEO).
Government gross debt
73.8 % of GDP latest value, 2024
General government gross debt, percent of GDP (IMF WEO).
Unemployment rate
8.4 % of labour force latest value, 2024
Unemployed as a share of the labour force (IMF WEO; national definitions).
GDP per capita, US dollars
38,792 current US dollars latest value, 2024
GDP per person in current US dollars at market exchange rates (IMF WEO).
Society
Urban population
81.3 % of population latest value, 2025
Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).
Tertiary enrolment, women
21.6 % gross latest value, 1995
Women enrolled in tertiary education as a share of women in the five-year age group after secondary school; can exceed 100 (UNESCO).
Women with upper secondary education
94 % of women 25+ latest value, 2023
Share of women aged 25+ who completed at least upper secondary education (UNESCO).
Life expectancy at birth
74.7 years latest value, 2024
Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).
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