El Salvador

Births

99.4k

births per year, 2023

Total fertility rate

1.78

children per woman, 2023

Median age

years, 2023

Internet users

66.5

% of population, 2024

Mobile cellular subscriptions

176.5

per 100 people, 2024

GDP per capita, PPP

12,050

constant 2021 international $, 2025

Urban population

75.5

% of population, 2025

What the data shows

Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.

How the indicators changed

Fertility (TFR): 6.30 in 1950 → 1.78 in 2023 (−72%). Peak: 6.69 in 1963; the latest value is 73% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2015. The trend broke around 1964 and 2005: +0.03 → −0.11 → −0.04 a year.
Births: 103k in 1950 → 99.4k in 2023 (−3%). Peak: 182k in 1989; the latest value is 45% lower. The trend broke around 1976 and 1991: +2.78k → +0.39k → −2.89k a year.
Population: 2.18M in 1950 → 6.31M in 2023 (×2.9). The trend broke around 1995: change slowed down (+86.6k → +17.5k a year).
Internet: 0% in 1990 → 66.5% in 2024 (+66 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2008, above 50% since 2019. Fastest growth in 2016–2021: 29% → 57.3%.
Urban share: 38.4% in 1960 → 75.5% in 2025 (+37 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1992, above 75% since 2024. The trend broke around 1975: change sped up (+0.12 → +0.56 a year).
GDP per person (PPP): 5,976 PPP dollars in 1990 → 12,050 PPP dollars in 2025 (+102%). The trend broke around 2019: change sped up (+141 → +300 a year).
GDP growth: on average −1.2% in the 1980s, 3.7% in the 1990s, 1.5% in the 2000s, 2.5% in the 2010s, 2.6% in the 2020s. Lowest: −8.6% in 1980; highest: 11.9% in 2021.
Inflation: on average 18.5% in the 1980s, 11.0% in the 1990s, 3.6% in the 2000s, 1.2% in the 2010s, 2.6% in the 2020s. Lowest: −0.7% in 2015; highest: 31.9% in 1986.

What changed at the same time

The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1976–1986: 5.59 → 4.19. Over the same years: births 173k → 175k; population 4.21M → 4.99M; urban share 41% → 46.4%; GDP growth 0.2% (1986); inflation 31.9% (1986); no data for the others in those years.
Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.16 → 1.78; births 118k → 99.4k; population 6.14M → 6.31M; internet 23.1% → 62.6%; urban share 68.1% → 74.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 9,329 PPP dollars → 11,404 PPP dollars; GDP growth 2.2% → 3.5%; inflation 0.8% → 4%.

How the indicators relate

Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.80); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.05). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.45). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.

Forecasts vs actual

Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −11%.
The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (1.78, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).
The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (1.78, 2023) only around 2037: reality is 14 years ahead of it.
Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.66 (−7% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.62 (−9% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.12.
Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −16%.
The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (99.4k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).
The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (99.4k, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.
Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 71.8k (−28% vs 2023), 2100 — 40.2k (−60% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 11.3k.
Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −6.7%.
The UN 1998 projection expected this level (6.31M) already around 2000: reality is 23 years behind it.
The UN 2010 projection expected this level (6.31M) already around 2013: reality is 10 years behind it.
Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 6.66M (+6% vs 2023), 2100 — 5.07M (−20% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 3.08M.
GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (34 editions, 2007–2023). On average the outcome was 0.2 pp below the forecast; below it in 35% of cases; typical error ±1.9 pp. The biggest miss was for 2020: IMF, April 2019 expected 2.3%, the outcome was −7.9%.
GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2025 — 3.7%, 2027 — 3%, 2031 — 3%.
Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 0.5 pp below the forecast; below it in 72% of cases; typical error ±2.2 pp. The biggest miss was for 2009: IMF, October 2008 expected 7.4%, the outcome was 0.5%.
Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 2.5%, 2028 — 1.8%, 2031 — 1.8%.

UN projections vs actual

Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.

Population

persons, 1 July

Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium

Release	Target period	Horizon	Expected	Actual	Actual vs expected
UN 1998	2023	25 years	8.86M	6.31M	−28.7%
UN 2000	2023	23 years	8.79M	6.31M	−28.2%
UN 2002	2023	21 years	8.26M	6.31M	−23.6%
UN 2004	2023	19 years	8.86M	6.31M	−28.7%
UN 2006	2023	17 years	8.35M	6.31M	−24.4%
UN 2008	2023	15 years	6.78M	6.31M	−7%
UN 2010	2023	13 years	6.75M	6.31M	−6.5%
UN 2012	2023	11 years	6.71M	6.31M	−5.9%
UN 2015	2023	8 years	6.29M	6.31M	+0.3%
UN 2017	2023	6 years	6.58M	6.31M	−4.1%
UN 2019	2023	4 years	6.58M	6.31M	−4.1%
UN 2022	2023	1 year	6.36M	6.31M	−0.9%

Births

births per year

Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium

Release	Target period	Horizon	Expected	Actual	Actual vs expected
UN 1998	2015–2020	20 years	159k	106k	−33.2%
UN 2000	2015–2020	18 years	158k	106k	−32.8%
UN 2002	2015–2020	16 years	148k	106k	−28.3%
UN 2004	2015–2020	14 years	162k	106k	−34.4%
UN 2006	2015–2020	12 years	153k	106k	−30.3%
UN 2008	2015–2020	10 years	126k	106k	−15.7%
UN 2010	2015–2020	8 years	123k	106k	−13.3%
UN 2012	2015–2020	6 years	126k	106k	−15.3%
UN 2015	2015–2020	2 years	104k	106k	+1.8%
UN 2017	2015–2020	0 years	117k	106k	−9.3%
UN 2022	2023	1 year	99.7k	99.4k	−0.2%

Total fertility rate

children per woman

Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium

Release	Target period	Horizon	Expected	Actual	Actual vs expected
UN 1998	2015–2020	20 years	2.31	1.90	−18%
UN 2000	2015–2020	18 years	2.31	1.90	−17.8%
UN 2002	2015–2020	16 years	2.31	1.90	−18%
UN 2004	2015–2020	14 years	2.37	1.90	−19.9%
UN 2006	2015–2020	12 years	2.37	1.90	−19.9%
UN 2008	2015–2020	10 years	2.13	1.90	−10.9%
UN 2010	2015–2020	8 years	2.03	1.90	−6.5%
UN 2012	2015–2020	6 years	2.08	1.90	−8.6%
UN 2015	2015–2020	2 years	1.87	1.90	+1.4%
UN 2017	2015–2020	0 years	2.05	1.90	−7.5%
UN 2022	2023	1 year	1.78	1.78	0%

IMF forecasts vs actual

Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.

Real GDP growth

% per year

Actual (IMF)
WEO, April editions

Indicator	Forecasts	Mean error	Mean absolute error	Actual below forecast
Real GDP growth	34	−0.2 pp	1.9 pp	35%
Inflation	36	−0.5 pp	2.2 pp	72%
Unemployment rate	27	−0.1 pp	1.4 pp	48%
Government gross debt	28	+12.1 pp	13.2 pp	14%

All indicators

Demography

Population

6.31M persons, 1 July latest value, 2023

Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.

Births

99.4k births per year latest value, 2023

Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).

Total fertility rate

1.78 children per woman latest value, 2023

Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.

Life expectancy at birth, women

76.3 years latest value, 2023

Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).

Life expectancy at birth, men

67.5 years latest value, 2023

Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).

Median age

27 years latest value, 2023

Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).

Mean age of mothers at childbirth

27.1 years latest value, 2023

Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).

Sex ratio at birth

104.8 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023

Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).

Net migration

−23.3k persons per year latest value, 2023

Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).

Old-age dependency

13.7 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020

Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).

Digitalisation

Internet users

66.5 % of population latest value, 2024

Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.

Mobile cellular subscriptions

176.5 per 100 people latest value, 2024

Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.

Fixed broadband subscriptions

12.5 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2024

Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.

Economy

GDP per capita, PPP

12,050 constant 2021 international $ latest value, 2025

Gross domestic product per person at purchasing power parity, constant 2021 international dollars (World Bank, ICP).

Real GDP growth

2.6 % per year latest value, 2024

Annual change of GDP at constant prices. Actual values and forecasts from IMF WEO editions.

Inflation

0.3 % per year, average latest value, 2025

Change of the annual average consumer price index (IMF WEO).

Government gross debt

87.2 % of GDP latest value, 2025

General government gross debt, percent of GDP (IMF WEO).

Unemployment rate

4.7 % of labour force latest value, 2024

Unemployed as a share of the labour force (IMF WEO; national definitions).

GDP per capita, US dollars

5,580 current US dollars latest value, 2024

GDP per person in current US dollars at market exchange rates (IMF WEO).

Society

Urban population

75.5 % of population latest value, 2025

Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).

Tertiary enrolment, women

37.9 % gross latest value, 2024

Women enrolled in tertiary education as a share of women in the five-year age group after secondary school; can exceed 100 (UNESCO).

Women with upper secondary education

32.5 % of women 25+ latest value, 2023

Share of women aged 25+ who completed at least upper secondary education (UNESCO).

Life expectancy at birth

72.3 years latest value, 2024

Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).