Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
Fertility (TFR): 4.38 in 1950 → 1.53 in 2023 (−65%). Peak: 4.89 in 1972; the latest value is 69% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1982. The trend broke around 1963 and 1984: +0.02 → −0.14 → −0.01 a year.
Births: 0.25k in 1950 → 0.87k in 2023 (×3.5). The trend broke around 1984 and 2005: 0k → +0.02k → +0.01k a year.
Population: 7k in 1950 → 73k in 2023 (×10). The trend broke around 1970 and 1989: +0.16k → +0.74k → +1.43k a year.
Internet: 0% in 1990 → 81.1% in 2017 (+81 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2005, above 50% since 2007. Fastest growth in 2005–2010: 38% → 66%.
Urban share: 100% in 1960 → 100% in 2025 (0 pp).
GDP per person (PPP): 92,213 PPP dollars in 2006 → 80,997 PPP dollars in 2024 (−12%). Low: 72,183 PPP dollars in 2020; +12% since then. The trend broke around 2012: direction reversed (−3,682 → +568 a year).
What changed at the same time
The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1972–1982: 4.89 → 2.01. Over the same years: births 0.41k → 0.35k; population 11.8k → 18.8k; urban share 100% → 100%; no data for the others in those years.
Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.45 → 1.53; births 0.72k → 0.87k; population 58.7k → 73k; internet 71.4% (2013); urban share 100% → 100%; GDP per person (PPP) 72,989 PPP dollars → 79,581 PPP dollars.
How the indicators relate
Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2017, 17 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.63); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.59).
Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (2006–2023, 18 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.58); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.16).
Forecasts vs actual
Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +27%.
Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.52 (0% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.57 (+2% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.07.
Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +32%.
Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.98k (+13% vs 2023), 2100 — 1k (+16% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.45k.
Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +12%.
The UN 1998 projection expected this level (73k) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.
The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (73k, 2023) only around 2031: reality is 8 years ahead of it.
Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 104k (+42% vs 2023), 2100 — 118k (+62% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 88.3k.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 1998
2023
25 years
74.6k
73k
−2.1%
UN 2000
2023
23 years
69.7k
73k
+4.8%
UN 2002
2023
21 years
64.5k
73k
+13.2%
UN 2004
2023
19 years
54.1k
73k
+35.1%
UN 2006
2023
17 years
54.7k
73k
+33.5%
UN 2008
2023
15 years
62.7k
73k
+16.6%
UN 2010
2023
13 years
61.4k
73k
+18.9%
UN 2012
2023
11 years
64.3k
73k
+13.5%
UN 2015
2023
8 years
66.1k
73k
+10.4%
UN 2017
2023
6 years
66.1k
73k
+10.4%
UN 2019
2023
4 years
68.1k
73k
+7.3%
UN 2022
2023
1 year
69.3k
73k
+5.4%
Births
births per year
Actual
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 2022
2023
1 year
0.65k
0.87k
+32.3%
Total fertility rate
children per woman
Actual
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 2022
2023
1 year
1.21
1.53
+27%
All indicators
Demography
Population
73k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.