Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
Fertility (TFR): 4.98 in 1950 → 1.07 in 2023 (−78%). Peak: 5.19 in 1958; the latest value is 79% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 2013, below 1.5 since 2017. The trend broke around 1961 and 1974: +0.01 → −0.19 → −0.02 a year.
Births: 3.76k in 1950 → 1.39k in 2023 (−63%). Peak: 4.59k in 1960; the latest value is 70% lower. The trend broke around 1961 and 1971: +0.08k → −0.1k → −0.04k a year.
Population: 102k in 1950 → 185k in 2023 (+82%). The trend broke around 1972 and 2006: +2.45k → −0.28k → +2.35k a year.
Internet: 61.9% in 2016 → 68.1% in 2017 (+6.3 pp).
Urban share: 75.2% in 1960 → 91.5% in 2025 (+16 pp). The trend broke around 1991 and 2000: +0.28 → +0.75 → +0.02 a year.
GDP per person (PPP): 34,307 PPP dollars in 2000 → 28,762 PPP dollars in 2024 (−16%). Peak: 35,436 PPP dollars in 2002; the latest value is 19% lower.
What changed at the same time
The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1962–1972: 4.93 → 2.99. Over the same years: births 4.54k → 3.5k; population 137k → 153k; urban share 76.1% → 79.3%; no data for the others in those years.
Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.10 → 1.07; births 2.19k → 1.39k; population 163k → 185k; urban share 91.3% → 91.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 31,753 PPP dollars → 27,618 PPP dollars; no data for the others in those years.
How the indicators relate
Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.81); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.28). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (2000–2023, 24 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.19). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Forecasts vs actual
Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 4 revisions (2012–2022) and above in none; median gap −28%.
Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.22 (+14% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.38 (+29% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.88.
Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 4 revisions (2012–2022) and above in none; median gap −19%.
Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.17k (−16% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.74k (−47% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.23k.
Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 5 revisions (2012–2022) and above in 4; median gap +11%.
The UN 2015 projection expected today's level (185k, 2023) only around 2046: reality is 23 years ahead of it.
Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 174k (−6% vs 2023), 2100 — 121k (−35% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 81.8k.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
Actual
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 2012
2023
11 years
174k
185k
+6.4%
UN 2015
2023
8 years
167k
185k
+10.8%
UN 2017
2023
6 years
166k
185k
+11.4%
UN 2019
2023
4 years
166k
185k
+11.5%
UN 2022
2023
1 year
192k
185k
−3.5%
Births
births per year
Actual
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 2012
2015–2020
6 years
1.94k
1.66k
−14.4%
UN 2015
2015–2020
2 years
2.12k
1.66k
−21.6%
UN 2017
2015–2020
0 years
2.01k
1.66k
−17%
UN 2022
2023
1 year
2.2k
1.39k
−36.5%
Total fertility rate
children per woman
Actual
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 2012
2015–2020
6 years
1.88
1.46
−22.1%
UN 2015
2015–2020
2 years
2.05
1.46
−28.7%
UN 2017
2015–2020
0 years
2.02
1.46
−27.5%
UN 2022
2023
1 year
1.64
1.07
−34.6%
All indicators
Demography
Population
185k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.