Population
28.3M persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Venezuela
All indicators of the Macroscope base for Venezuela, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 6.64 in 1950 → 2.08 in 2023 (−69%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 2022. The trend broke around 1958 and 1989: 0 → −0.11 → −0.04 a year.
- Births: 257k in 1950 → 427k in 2023 (+66%). Peak: 602k in 2006; the latest value is 29% lower. The trend broke around 1989 and 2014: +7.56k → +0.73k → −21.2k a year.
- Population: 5.49M in 1950 → 28.3M in 2023 (×5.2). The trend broke around 2015: direction reversed (+448k → −420k a year).
- Internet: 0% in 1990 → 76.7% in 2024 (+77 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2005, above 50% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2008–2013: 25.9% → 54.9%.
- Urban share: 61.9% in 1960 → 89.3% in 2025 (+27 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1974. The trend broke around 1976 and 1999: +0.95 → +0.48 → +0.04 a year.
- GDP growth: on average −0.4% in the 1980s, 2.5% in the 1990s, 4.0% in the 2000s, −5.9% in the 2010s. Lowest: −19.7% in 2018; highest: 18.3% in 2004.
- Inflation: on average 23.1% in the 1980s, 47.4% in the 1990s, 21.0% in the 2000s, 8,627.3% in the 2010s, 794.8% in the 2020s. Lowest: 6.2% in 1983; highest: 65,374% in 2018.
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1965–1975: 5.98 → 4.69. Over the same years: births 400k → 463k; population 9.7M → 13.2M; urban share 66.9% → 75.9%; no data for the others in those years.
- Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.33 → 2.08; births 583k → 427k; population 29.9M → 28.3M; internet 54.9% → 76.3%; urban share 88.9% → 89.2%; GDP growth 1.3% (2013); inflation 40.6% → 337.5%.
How the indicators relate
- Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
- Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.99); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.25). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −3.9%.
- The UN 2002 projection expected today's level (2.08, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.
- The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.08, 2023) only around 2029: reality is 6 years ahead of it.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.83 (−12% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.72 (−17% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.22.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −12%.
- The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (427k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 377k (−12% vs 2023), 2100 — 260k (−39% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 88.1k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −18%.
- The UN 1998 projection expected this level (28.3M) already around 2009: reality is 14 years behind it.
- The UN 2006 projection expected this level (28.3M) already around 2008: reality is 15 years behind it.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 31.1M (+10% vs 2023), 2100 — 28.3M (0% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 17.9M.
- GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (22 editions, 2007–2017). On average the outcome was 4.5 pp below the forecast; below it in 77% of cases; typical error ±6.1 pp. The biggest miss was for 2018: IMF, April 2017 expected −4.1%, the outcome was −19.7%.
- GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2019 — −27.7%, 2021 — 1%, 2027 — 6%.
- Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (31 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 335,947.4 pp below the forecast; below it in 52% of cases; typical error ±340,542.7 pp. The biggest miss was for 2019: IMF, October 2018 expected 10,000,000%, the outcome was 19,906%.
- Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 387.4%, 2027 — 94.4%.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2023 | 25 years | 34M | 28.3M | −16.9% |
| UN 2000 | 2023 | 23 years | 34M | 28.3M | −16.9% |
| UN 2002 | 2023 | 21 years | 34.5M | 28.3M | −18% |
| UN 2004 | 2023 | 19 years | 34.6M | 28.3M | −18.3% |
| UN 2006 | 2023 | 17 years | 34.6M | 28.3M | −18.2% |
| UN 2008 | 2023 | 15 years | 34.6M | 28.3M | −18.2% |
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 34.5M | 28.3M | −18% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 34.6M | 28.3M | −18.3% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 34.3M | 28.3M | −17.4% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 34.3M | 28.3M | −17.5% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 30M | 28.3M | −5.7% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 28.8M | 28.3M | −1.9% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2015–2020 | 20 years | 573k | 521k | −9.1% |
| UN 2000 | 2015–2020 | 18 years | 573k | 521k | −9.1% |
| UN 2002 | 2015–2020 | 16 years | 579k | 521k | −10.1% |
| UN 2004 | 2015–2020 | 14 years | 591k | 521k | −11.8% |
| UN 2006 | 2015–2020 | 12 years | 592k | 521k | −12% |
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 592k | 521k | −12% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 589k | 521k | −11.6% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 595k | 521k | −12.4% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 596k | 521k | −12.6% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 598k | 521k | −12.9% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 455k | 427k | −6.1% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2015–2020 | 20 years | 2.20 | 2.17 | −1.4% |
| UN 2000 | 2015–2020 | 18 years | 2.20 | 2.17 | −1.4% |
| UN 2002 | 2015–2020 | 16 years | 2.20 | 2.17 | −1.4% |
| UN 2004 | 2015–2020 | 14 years | 2.26 | 2.17 | −3.9% |
| UN 2006 | 2015–2020 | 12 years | 2.26 | 2.17 | −3.9% |
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 2.26 | 2.17 | −3.9% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 2.26 | 2.17 | −3.7% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 2.28 | 2.17 | −4.6% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 2.28 | 2.17 | −4.8% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 2.28 | 2.17 | −4.8% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 2.17 | 2.08 | −4.2% |
IMF forecasts vs actual
Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.
Real GDP growth
% per year
- Actual (IMF)
- WEO, April editions
| Indicator | Forecasts | Mean error | Mean absolute error | Actual below forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 22 | −4.5 pp | 6.1 pp | 77% |
| Inflation | 31 | −335,947.4 pp | 340,542.7 pp | 52% |
| Unemployment rate | 1 | +0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0% |
| Government gross debt | 13 | +55.7 pp | 55.7 pp | 0% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
427k births per year latest value, 2023
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Total fertility rate
2.08 children per woman latest value, 2023
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
76.5 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
68.7 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
29 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
26.3 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
105.3 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
−113k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
15.1 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).
Digitalisation
Internet users
76.7 % of population latest value, 2024
Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.
Mobile cellular subscriptions
71 per 100 people latest value, 2024
Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.
Fixed broadband subscriptions
12.9 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2024
Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.
Economy
Real GDP growth
−19.7 % per year latest value, 2018
Annual change of GDP at constant prices. Actual values and forecasts from IMF WEO editions.
Inflation
252 % per year, average latest value, 2025
Change of the annual average consumer price index (IMF WEO).
Government gross debt
133.6 % of GDP latest value, 2017
General government gross debt, percent of GDP (IMF WEO).
Unemployment rate
8.2 % of labour force latest value, 2011
Unemployed as a share of the labour force (IMF WEO; national definitions).
GDP per capita, US dollars
3,530 current US dollars latest value, 2018
GDP per person in current US dollars at market exchange rates (IMF WEO).
Society
Urban population
89.3 % of population latest value, 2025
Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).
Tertiary enrolment, women
98.8 % gross latest value, 2008
Women enrolled in tertiary education as a share of women in the five-year age group after secondary school; can exceed 100 (UNESCO).
Women with upper secondary education
61.3 % of women 25+ latest value, 2017
Share of women aged 25+ who completed at least upper secondary education (UNESCO).
Life expectancy at birth
72.7 years latest value, 2024
Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).
Same region: Latin America and the Caribbean
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