South Africa

Mobile cellular subscriptions

179.3

per 100 people, 2024

GDP per capita, PPP

13,592

constant 2021 international $, 2025

Urban population

63.8

% of population, 2025

What the data shows

Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.

How the indicators changed

Fertility (TFR): 6.03 in 1950 → 2.22 in 2023 (−63%). The trend broke around 1970 and 2001: −0.02 → −0.11 → −0.01 a year.
Births: 534k in 1950 → 1.19M in 2023 (+122%). The trend broke around 1988 and 1999: +19k → −13.4k → +6.73k a year.
Population: 13M in 1950 → 63.2M in 2023 (×4.8). The trend broke around 1974: change sped up (+496k → +1.02M a year).
Internet: 0% in 1990 → 78.4% in 2024 (+78 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2009, above 50% since 2015. Fastest growth in 2009–2014: 10% → 49%.
Urban share: 46.7% in 1960 → 63.8% in 2025 (+17 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1987. The trend broke around 1986 and 2011: +0.09 → +0.55 → +0.06 a year.
GDP per person (PPP): 10,811 PPP dollars in 1990 → 13,592 PPP dollars in 2025 (+26%). Low: 9,977 PPP dollars in 1993; +36% since then. The trend broke around 1998 and 2011: +25 → +332 → −94 a year.
GDP growth: on average 2.2% in the 1980s, 1.4% in the 1990s, 3.6% in the 2000s, 1.7% in the 2010s, 0.5% in the 2020s. Lowest: −6.2% in 2020; highest: 6.6% in 1980.
Inflation: on average 14.7% in the 1980s, 9.9% in the 1990s, 6.1% in the 2000s, 5.2% in the 2010s, 4.7% in the 2020s. Lowest: 1.4% in 2004; highest: 18.2% in 1986.

What changed at the same time

The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1987–1997: 4.35 → 2.73. Over the same years: births 1.24M → 1.09M; population 37.3M → 45.7M; internet 1.6% (1997); urban share 50.1% → 54%; GDP per person (PPP) 10,770 PPP dollars (1997); GDP growth 2.1% → 2.6%; inflation 16.4% → 8.6%.
Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.43 → 2.22; births 1.2M → 1.19M; population 54.7M → 63.2M; internet 46.5% → 78.3%; urban share 63.1% → 63.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 14,681 PPP dollars → 13,695 PPP dollars; GDP growth 2.5% → 0.8%; inflation 5.7% → 5.9%.

How the indicators relate

Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.63); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.10).
Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.11). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.72); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.39).

Forecasts vs actual

Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −0.2%.
The UN 2002 projection expected this level (2.22) already around 2012: reality is 11 years behind it.
The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.22, 2023) only around 2028: reality is 5 years ahead of it.
Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.89 (−15% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.74 (−21% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.24.
Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +15%.
Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.14M (−4% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.1M (−7% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 497k.
Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 12; median gap +19%.
The UN 2012 projection expected today's level (63.2M, 2023) only around 2050: reality is 27 years ahead of it.
The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (63.2M, 2023) only around 2028: reality is 5 years ahead of it.
Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 79.2M (+25% vs 2023), 2100 — 94.3M (+49% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 64.6M.
GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 1.1 pp below the forecast; below it in 81% of cases; typical error ±1.5 pp. The biggest miss was for 2020: IMF, April 2019 expected 1.5%, the outcome was −6.2%.
GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 1%, 2028 — 1.5%, 2031 — 1.8%.
Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 0.1 pp above the forecast; below it in 56% of cases; typical error ±1.3 pp. The biggest miss was for 2008: IMF, April 2007 expected 4.9%, the outcome was 10.9%.
Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 3.9%, 2028 — 3%, 2031 — 3%.

UN projections vs actual

Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.

Population

persons, 1 July

Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium

Release	Target period	Horizon	Expected	Actual	Actual vs expected
UN 1998	2023	25 years	45.4M	63.2M	+39.2%
UN 2000	2023	23 years	43.8M	63.2M	+44.3%
UN 2002	2023	21 years	43.3M	63.2M	+46.1%
UN 2004	2023	19 years	48.2M	63.2M	+31.1%
UN 2006	2023	17 years	51.9M	63.2M	+21.8%
UN 2008	2023	15 years	53.3M	63.2M	+18.5%
UN 2010	2023	13 years	53.3M	63.2M	+18.6%
UN 2012	2023	11 years	56.1M	63.2M	+12.8%
UN 2015	2023	8 years	57.8M	63.2M	+9.4%
UN 2017	2023	6 years	60.6M	63.2M	+4.3%
UN 2019	2023	4 years	61.5M	63.2M	+2.9%
UN 2022	2023	1 year	60.4M	63.2M	+4.6%

Births

births per year

Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium

Release	Target period	Horizon	Expected	Actual	Actual vs expected
UN 1998	2015–2020	20 years	914k	1.17M	+27.8%
UN 2000	2015–2020	18 years	831k	1.17M	+40.5%
UN 2002	2015–2020	16 years	855k	1.17M	+36.6%
UN 2004	2015–2020	14 years	966k	1.17M	+20.9%
UN 2006	2015–2020	12 years	1.01M	1.17M	+15.4%
UN 2008	2015–2020	10 years	1.03M	1.17M	+13.9%
UN 2010	2015–2020	8 years	1M	1.17M	+16.6%
UN 2012	2015–2020	6 years	1.06M	1.17M	+9.9%
UN 2015	2015–2020	2 years	1.1M	1.17M	+6.4%
UN 2017	2015–2020	0 years	1.17M	1.17M	+0.1%
UN 2022	2023	1 year	1.14M	1.19M	+4.1%

Total fertility rate

children per woman

Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium

Release	Target period	Horizon	Expected	Actual	Actual vs expected
UN 1998	2015–2020	20 years	2.20	2.28	+3.5%
UN 2000	2015–2020	18 years	2.10	2.28	+8.4%
UN 2002	2015–2020	16 years	2.10	2.28	+8.6%
UN 2004	2015–2020	14 years	2.34	2.28	−2.8%
UN 2006	2015–2020	12 years	2.34	2.28	−2.8%
UN 2008	2015–2020	10 years	2.30	2.28	−0.8%
UN 2010	2015–2020	8 years	2.24	2.28	+1.5%
UN 2012	2015–2020	6 years	2.28	2.28	−0.1%
UN 2015	2015–2020	2 years	2.28	2.28	−0.2%
UN 2017	2015–2020	0 years	2.41	2.28	−5.7%
UN 2022	2023	1 year	2.32	2.22	−4.4%

IMF forecasts vs actual

Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.

Real GDP growth

% per year

Actual (IMF)
WEO, April editions

Indicator	Forecasts	Mean error	Mean absolute error	Actual below forecast
Real GDP growth	36	−1.1 pp	1.5 pp	81%
Inflation	36	+0.1 pp	1.3 pp	56%
Unemployment rate	29	−0.2 pp	1.2 pp	45%
Government gross debt	26	−2 pp	3.5 pp	77%

All indicators

Demography

Population

63.2M persons, 1 July latest value, 2023

Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.

Source: Stats SA P0305 Recorded live births 2024 (Tables 5, 7); TFR: Stats SA P0302 Mid-year population estimates 2026 (Appendix 5)

Births

799k births per year latest value, 2024

Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).

Total fertility rate

2.14 children per woman latest value, 2025

Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.

Source: Stats SA P0302 Mid-year population estimates 2026

Life expectancy at birth, women

69.6 years latest value, 2023

Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).

Life expectancy at birth, men

62.6 years latest value, 2023

Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).

Median age

28.2 years latest value, 2023

Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).

Mean age of mothers at childbirth

28.3 years latest value, 2023

Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).

Sex ratio at birth

104 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023

Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).

Net migration

228k persons per year latest value, 2023

Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).

Old-age dependency

10.4 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020

Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).

Digitalisation

Internet users

78.4 % of population latest value, 2024

Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.

Mobile cellular subscriptions

179.3 per 100 people latest value, 2024

Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.

Fixed broadband subscriptions

5.3 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2024

Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.

Economy

GDP per capita, PPP

13,592 constant 2021 international $ latest value, 2025

Gross domestic product per person at purchasing power parity, constant 2021 international dollars (World Bank, ICP).

Real GDP growth

1.1 % per year latest value, 2025

Annual change of GDP at constant prices. Actual values and forecasts from IMF WEO editions.

Inflation

3.2 % per year, average latest value, 2025

Change of the annual average consumer price index (IMF WEO).

Government gross debt

76 % of GDP latest value, 2024

General government gross debt, percent of GDP (IMF WEO).

Unemployment rate

32.4 % of labour force latest value, 2025

Unemployed as a share of the labour force (IMF WEO; national definitions).

GDP per capita, US dollars

6,769 current US dollars latest value, 2025

GDP per person in current US dollars at market exchange rates (IMF WEO).

Society

Urban population

63.8 % of population latest value, 2025

Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).

Tertiary enrolment, women

29.8 % gross latest value, 2023

Women enrolled in tertiary education as a share of women in the five-year age group after secondary school; can exceed 100 (UNESCO).

Women with upper secondary education

48.1 % of women 25+ latest value, 2024

Share of women aged 25+ who completed at least upper secondary education (UNESCO).

Life expectancy at birth

66.3 years latest value, 2024

Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).