Population
3.47M persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Eritrea
All indicators of the Macroscope base for Eritrea, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 6.52 in 1950 → 3.71 in 2023 (−43%). The trend broke around 1987: direction reversed (0 → −0.09 a year).
- Births: 36.2k in 1950 → 99.1k in 2023 (×2.7). The trend broke around 1986 and 2010: +1.27k → +0.71k → −0.08k a year.
- Population: 815k in 1950 → 3.47M in 2023 (×4.3). The trend broke around 1998 and 2009: +29.8k → +69.7k → +36.8k a year.
- Internet: 0% in 1990 → 14.3% in 2020 (+14 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2019. Fastest growth in 2015–2020: 1.1% → 14.3%.
- Urban share: 10.4% in 1960 → 34.5% in 2025 (+24 pp). The trend broke around 1988 and 2000: +0.18 → +1.6 → 0 a year.
- GDP growth: on average 7.9% in the 1990s, −0.6% in the 2000s, 5.3% in the 2010s. Lowest: −20.6% in 2015; highest: 30.9% in 2014.
- Inflation: on average 8.8% in the 1990s, 18.5% in the 2000s, 3.3% in the 2010s. Lowest: −14.4% in 2018; highest: 33.9% in 2009.
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1995–2005: 5.94 → 4.93. Over the same years: births 79.9k → 96.8k; population 2.03M → 2.66M; internet 0% (1995); urban share 27.2% → 35.1%; GDP growth 2.3% → 2.6%; inflation 12% → 12.5%.
- Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.34 → 3.71; births 97.5k → 99.1k; population 3.07M → 3.47M; internet 0.9% (2013); urban share 35.7% → 34.7%; GDP growth −10.5% (2013); inflation 6.3% (2013).
How the indicators relate
- Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2020, 25 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.55); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.05).
- Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes are related too (r = −0.68). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +1.4%.
- The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.71) already around 2015: reality is 8 years behind it.
- The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (3.71, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.60 (−30% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.95 (−47% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.45.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −51%.
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 117k (+18% vs 2023), 2100 — 105k (+6% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 47.4k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −50%.
- The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.47M) already around 1997: reality is 26 years behind it.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 5.7M (+64% vs 2023), 2100 — 8.44M (+143% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 5.82M.
- GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (24 editions, 2007–2018). On average the outcome was 0.8 pp above the forecast; below it in 42% of cases; typical error ±13.3 pp. The biggest miss was for 2014: IMF, October 2013 expected 1.9%, the outcome was 30.9%.
- Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (24 editions, 2007–2018). On average the outcome was 5.1 pp below the forecast; below it in 79% of cases; typical error ±11.8 pp. The biggest miss was for 2018: IMF, April 2017 expected 9%, the outcome was −14.4%.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2023 | 25 years | 6.46M | 3.47M | −46.3% |
| UN 2000 | 2023 | 23 years | 6.79M | 3.47M | −48.9% |
| UN 2002 | 2023 | 21 years | 6.99M | 3.47M | −50.4% |
| UN 2004 | 2023 | 19 years | 7.04M | 3.47M | −50.7% |
| UN 2006 | 2023 | 17 years | 7.39M | 3.47M | −53% |
| UN 2008 | 2023 | 15 years | 7.13M | 3.47M | −51.3% |
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 7.31M | 3.47M | −52.5% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 8.33M | 3.47M | −58.3% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 6.31M | 3.47M | −45% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 5.8M | 3.47M | −40.2% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 3.73M | 3.47M | −6.9% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 3.75M | 3.47M | −7.4% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2015–2020 | 20 years | 170k | 93.9k | −44.8% |
| UN 2000 | 2015–2020 | 18 years | 195k | 93.9k | −51.7% |
| UN 2002 | 2015–2020 | 16 years | 193k | 93.9k | −51.4% |
| UN 2004 | 2015–2020 | 14 years | 200k | 93.9k | −53.1% |
| UN 2006 | 2015–2020 | 12 years | 203k | 93.9k | −53.7% |
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 186k | 93.9k | −49.6% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 197k | 93.9k | −52.3% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 241k | 93.9k | −61.1% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 176k | 93.9k | −46.7% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 161k | 93.9k | −41.6% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 106k | 99.1k | −6.8% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2015–2020 | 20 years | 3.52 | 4.08 | +16% |
| UN 2000 | 2015–2020 | 18 years | 4.01 | 4.08 | +1.8% |
| UN 2002 | 2015–2020 | 16 years | 3.70 | 4.08 | +10.3% |
| UN 2004 | 2015–2020 | 14 years | 4.03 | 4.08 | +1.2% |
| UN 2006 | 2015–2020 | 12 years | 4.03 | 4.08 | +1.2% |
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 3.71 | 4.08 | +10.1% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 3.84 | 4.08 | +6.2% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 4.30 | 4.08 | −5.1% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 4.03 | 4.08 | +1.4% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 4.03 | 4.08 | +1.3% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 3.71 | 3.71 | 0% |
IMF forecasts vs actual
Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.
Real GDP growth
% per year
- Actual (IMF)
- WEO, April editions
| Indicator | Forecasts | Mean error | Mean absolute error | Actual below forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 24 | +0.8 pp | 13.3 pp | 42% |
| Inflation | 24 | −5.1 pp | 11.8 pp | 79% |
| Government gross debt | 17 | +112.3 pp | 112.3 pp | 0% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
99.1k births per year latest value, 2023
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Total fertility rate
3.71 children per woman latest value, 2023
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
70.7 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
66.5 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
18.7 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
29.2 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
103.2 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
−15.3k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
9.4 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).
Digitalisation
Internet users
14.3 % of population latest value, 2020
Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.
Mobile cellular subscriptions
59.1 per 100 people latest value, 2022
Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.
Fixed broadband subscriptions
0.2 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2022
Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.
Economy
Real GDP growth
3.8 % per year latest value, 2019
Annual change of GDP at constant prices. Actual values and forecasts from IMF WEO editions.
Inflation
1.3 % per year, average latest value, 2019
Change of the annual average consumer price index (IMF WEO).
Government gross debt
260.4 % of GDP latest value, 2019
General government gross debt, percent of GDP (IMF WEO).
GDP per capita, US dollars
567 current US dollars latest value, 2019
GDP per person in current US dollars at market exchange rates (IMF WEO).
Society
Urban population
34.5 % of population latest value, 2025
Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).
Tertiary enrolment, women
2.6 % gross latest value, 2016
Women enrolled in tertiary education as a share of women in the five-year age group after secondary school; can exceed 100 (UNESCO).
Life expectancy at birth
68.9 years latest value, 2024
Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).
Same region: Africa
AlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepublicChadComorosCôte d'IvoireDR CongoDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEswatiniEthiopiaGabonGambiaGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMayotteMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRepublic of the CongoRwandaRéunionSaint HelenaSao Tome and PrincipeSenegalSeychellesSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSouth SudanSudanTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaWestern SaharaZambiaZimbabwe