Tunisia

Mobile cellular subscriptions

117.6

per 100 people, 2024

GDP per capita, PPP

13,018

constant 2021 international $, 2025

Urban population

70.7

% of population, 2025

What the data shows

Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.

How the indicators changed

Fertility (TFR): 6.68 in 1950 → 1.83 in 2023 (−73%). Peak: 7.17 in 1963; the latest value is 74% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2020. The trend broke around 1966 and 2000: +0.03 → −0.15 → 0 a year.
Births: 168k in 1950 → 126k in 2024 (−25%). Peak: 237k in 1986; the latest value is 47% lower. The trend broke around 1986 and 1998: +1.63k → −5.59k → +0.8k a year.
Population: 3.61M in 1950 → 12.2M in 2023 (×3.4). The trend broke around 1969: change sped up (+64.7k → +164k a year).
Internet: 0% in 1990 → 76.5% in 2024 (+77 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2006, above 50% since 2017. Fastest growth in 2005–2010: 9.7% → 36.8%.
Urban share: 37.5% in 1960 → 70.7% in 2025 (+33 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1976. The trend broke around 1999: change slowed down (+0.61 → +0.27 a year).
GDP per person (PPP): 6,743 PPP dollars in 1990 → 13,018 PPP dollars in 2025 (+93%). The trend broke around 1996 and 2010: +147 → +344 → +26 a year.
GDP growth: on average 3.6% in the 1980s, 5.2% in the 1990s, 4.3% in the 2000s, 2.0% in the 2010s, 0.5% in the 2020s. Lowest: −9% in 2020; highest: 8% in 1992.
Inflation: on average 8.7% in the 1980s, 4.9% in the 1990s, 3.2% in the 2000s, 5.0% in the 2010s, 6.9% in the 2020s. Lowest: 1.9% in 2005; highest: 13.7% in 1982.

What changed at the same time

The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1986–1996: 4.36 → 2.49. Over the same years: births 237k → 184k; population 7.6M → 9.29M; internet 0% (1996); urban share 54.3% → 62.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 7,822 PPP dollars (1996); GDP growth −1.5% → 6.9%; inflation 6.2% → 3.7%.
Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.31 → 1.83; births 220k → 168k; population 11.1M → 12.2M; internet 43.8% → 76.5%; urban share 67.5% → 70%; GDP per person (PPP) 12,588 PPP dollars → 12,651 PPP dollars; GDP growth 2.4% → 0.2%; inflation 5.4% → 9.3%.

How the indicators relate

Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2021, 29 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.27); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.30).
Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.37). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.67); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.16).

Forecasts vs actual

Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +14%.
The UN 2015 projection expected today's level (1.83, 2023) only around 2047: reality is 24 years ahead of it.
The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.83, 2023) only around 2047: reality is 24 years ahead of it.
Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.70 (−7% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.67 (−9% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.17.
Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +13%.
The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (126k, 2024) before its horizon ended (2047).
The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (126k, 2024) only around 2093: reality is 69 years ahead of it.
National statistics for 2024: 126k, 23% below the UN 2024 medium variant (164k) and below its 95% interval.
Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 146k (+16% vs 2024), 2100 — 84.7k (−33% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 28k.
Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +0.8%.
The UN 1998 projection expected this level (12.2M) already around 2019: reality is 4 years behind it.
The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (12.2M, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.
Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 13.1M (+8% vs 2023), 2100 — 10.7M (−13% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 7M.
GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (35 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 1.9 pp below the forecast; below it in 83% of cases; typical error ±2.1 pp. The biggest miss was for 2020: IMF, April 2019 expected 3.2%, the outcome was −9%.
GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 2.1%, 2028 — 1.5%, 2031 — 1.5%.
Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (35 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 0.4 pp above the forecast; below it in 40% of cases; typical error ±1.1 pp. The biggest miss was for 2018: IMF, April 2017 expected 3.8%, the outcome was 7.3%.
Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 6.5%, 2028 — 8.1%, 2031 — 9.6%.

UN projections vs actual

Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.

Population

persons, 1 July

Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium

Release	Target period	Horizon	Expected	Actual	Actual vs expected
UN 1998	2023	25 years	12.6M	12.2M	−3.3%
UN 2000	2023	23 years	12.2M	12.2M	+0.4%
UN 2002	2023	21 years	11.9M	12.2M	+2.7%
UN 2004	2023	19 years	11.9M	12.2M	+2.8%
UN 2006	2023	17 years	12M	12.2M	+1.7%
UN 2008	2023	15 years	11.6M	12.2M	+4.9%
UN 2010	2023	13 years	11.8M	12.2M	+3.6%
UN 2012	2023	11 years	12.1M	12.2M	+1.1%
UN 2015	2023	8 years	12.1M	12.2M	+0.5%
UN 2017	2023	6 years	12.2M	12.2M	−0.3%
UN 2019	2023	4 years	12.2M	12.2M	+0.4%
UN 2022	2023	1 year	12.5M	12.2M	−2.1%

Births

births per year

Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium

Release	Target period	Horizon	Expected	Actual	Actual vs expected
UN 1998	2015–2020	20 years	200k	208k	+3.9%
UN 2000	2015–2020	18 years	194k	208k	+7.1%
UN 2002	2015–2020	16 years	175k	208k	+18.9%
UN 2004	2015–2020	14 years	163k	208k	+27.7%
UN 2006	2015–2020	12 years	173k	208k	+20.3%
UN 2008	2015–2020	10 years	169k	208k	+23.1%
UN 2010	2015–2020	8 years	172k	208k	+21.2%
UN 2012	2015–2020	6 years	183k	208k	+13.5%
UN 2015	2015–2020	2 years	196k	208k	+6%
UN 2017	2015–2020	0 years	203k	208k	+2.4%
UN 2022	2024	2 years	184k	126k	−31.2%

Total fertility rate

children per woman

Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium

Release	Target period	Horizon	Expected	Actual	Actual vs expected
UN 1998	2015–2020	20 years	2.10	2.17	+3.5%
UN 2000	2015–2020	18 years	2.10	2.17	+3.5%
UN 2002	2015–2020	16 years	1.85	2.17	+17.5%
UN 2004	2015–2020	14 years	1.70	2.17	+28.1%
UN 2006	2015–2020	12 years	1.80	2.17	+20.9%
UN 2008	2015–2020	10 years	1.80	2.17	+20.9%
UN 2010	2015–2020	8 years	1.80	2.17	+20.9%
UN 2012	2015–2020	6 years	1.91	2.17	+13.5%
UN 2015	2015–2020	2 years	2.07	2.17	+5%
UN 2017	2015–2020	0 years	2.15	2.17	+1.2%
UN 2022	2023	1 year	2.04	1.83	−10.3%

IMF forecasts vs actual

Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.

Real GDP growth

% per year

Actual (IMF)
WEO, April editions

Indicator	Forecasts	Mean error	Mean absolute error	Actual below forecast
Real GDP growth	35	−1.9 pp	2.1 pp	83%
Inflation	35	+0.4 pp	1.1 pp	40%
Unemployment rate	17	+1.3 pp	1.8 pp	29%
Government gross debt	27	−0.2 pp	4.3 pp	48%

All indicators

Demography

Population

12.2M persons, 1 July latest value, 2023

Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.

Births

126k births per year latest value, 2024

Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).

Source: INS Tunisia, Statistiques - Naissances

Total fertility rate

1.83 children per woman latest value, 2023

Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.

Life expectancy at birth, women

79.1 years latest value, 2023

Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).

Life expectancy at birth, men

73.9 years latest value, 2023

Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).

Median age

32.1 years latest value, 2023

Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).

Mean age of mothers at childbirth

31.3 years latest value, 2023

Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).

Sex ratio at birth

105.1 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023

Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).

Net migration

−14k persons per year latest value, 2023

Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).

Old-age dependency

13.8 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020

Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).

Digitalisation

Internet users

76.5 % of population latest value, 2024

Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.

Mobile cellular subscriptions

117.6 per 100 people latest value, 2024

Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.

Fixed broadband subscriptions

15 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2024

Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.

Economy

GDP per capita, PPP

13,018 constant 2021 international $ latest value, 2025

Gross domestic product per person at purchasing power parity, constant 2021 international dollars (World Bank, ICP).

Real GDP growth

2.5 % per year latest value, 2025

Annual change of GDP at constant prices. Actual values and forecasts from IMF WEO editions.

Inflation

5.3 % per year, average latest value, 2025

Change of the annual average consumer price index (IMF WEO).

Government gross debt

81.3 % of GDP latest value, 2025

General government gross debt, percent of GDP (IMF WEO).

Unemployment rate

15.2 % of labour force latest value, 2025

Unemployed as a share of the labour force (IMF WEO; national definitions).

GDP per capita, US dollars

4,664 current US dollars latest value, 2025

GDP per person in current US dollars at market exchange rates (IMF WEO).

Society

Urban population

70.7 % of population latest value, 2025

Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).

Tertiary enrolment, women

49.4 % gross latest value, 2023

Women enrolled in tertiary education as a share of women in the five-year age group after secondary school; can exceed 100 (UNESCO).

Women with upper secondary education

19.7 % of women 25+ latest value, 2023

Share of women aged 25+ who completed at least upper secondary education (UNESCO).

Life expectancy at birth

76.7 years latest value, 2024

Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).