Population
316k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Mayotte
All indicators of the Macroscope base for Mayotte, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 6.86 in 1950 → 4.62 in 2023 (−33%). Peak: 7.53 in 1975; the latest value is 39% lower. The trend broke around 1978 and 2004: +0.03 → −0.12 → +0.01 a year.
- Births: 1.04k in 1950 → 11.2k in 2023 (×11). The trend broke around 1977 and 2011: +0.04k → +0.17k → +0.29k a year.
- Population: 20.5k in 1950 → 316k in 2023 (×15). The trend broke around 1982: change sped up (+0.98k → +5.72k a year).
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1980–1990: 7.32 → 6.05. Over the same years: births 2.37k → 4.04k; population 50.2k → 89.6k.
- Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.43 → 4.62; births 7.94k → 11.2k; population 227k → 316k.
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 6 revisions (2008–2022) and above in 6; median gap +23%.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.27 (−29% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.20 (−52% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.70.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 6 revisions (2008–2022) and above in 6; median gap +31%.
- The UN 2010 projection did not expect today's level (11.2k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).
- The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (11.2k, 2023) only around 2028: reality is 5 years ahead of it.
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 16.2k (+45% vs 2023), 2100 — 20k (+79% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 11.1k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 7 revisions (2008–2022) and above in 6; median gap +7.8%.
- The UN 2008 projection expected today's level (316k, 2023) only around 2034: reality is 11 years ahead of it.
- The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (316k, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 645k (+104% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.38M (×4.4 vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.04M.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2008 | 2023 | 15 years | 266k | 316k | +18.7% |
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 291k | 316k | +8.6% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 283k | 316k | +11.7% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 294k | 316k | +7.6% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 294k | 316k | +7.7% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 293k | 316k | +7.8% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 336k | 316k | −6% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 5.25k | 9.53k | +81.5% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 7.26k | 9.53k | +31.3% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 6.5k | 9.53k | +46.7% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 7.25k | 9.53k | +31.4% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 7.25k | 9.53k | +31.5% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 10.8k | 11.2k | +3.7% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 2.48 | 4.61 | +85.9% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 3.84 | 4.61 | +20% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 3.47 | 4.61 | +32.8% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 3.73 | 4.61 | +23.5% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 3.73 | 4.61 | +23.5% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 4.30 | 4.62 | +7.3% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
11.2k births per year latest value, 2023
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Total fertility rate
4.62 children per woman latest value, 2023
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
78.3 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
74.1 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
16.8 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
29.8 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
102.6 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
0.14k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
6.1 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).
Same region: Africa
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