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Western Sahara

Africa

All indicators of the Macroscope base for Western Sahara, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.

Open on the chartCSV: all factsAPI
Population
580k
persons, 1 July, 2023
UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024
Births
8.99k
births per year, 2023
UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024
Total fertility rate
2.16
children per woman, 2023
UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024
Median age
32
years, 2023
UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024

What the data shows

Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.

How the indicators changed

  • Fertility (TFR): 6.01 in 1950 → 2.16 in 2023 (−64%). Peak: 6.53 in 1966; the latest value is 67% lower. The trend broke around 1974 and 2006: +0.01 → −0.12 → −0.04 a year.
  • Births: 0.56k in 1950 → 8.99k in 2023 (×16). The trend broke around 1976 and 1982: +0.11k → +0.42k → +0.08k a year.
  • Population: 13k in 1950 → 580k in 2023 (×45). The trend broke around 1997: change sped up (+6.98k → +13.9k a year).

What changed at the same time

  • The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1985–1995: 5.36 → 4.05. Over the same years: births 7.02k → 5.87k; population 152k → 210k.
  • Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.50 → 2.16; births 9.1k → 8.99k; population 457k → 580k.

Forecasts vs actual

  • Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −2.1%.
  • The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (2.16, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.
  • The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.16, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.
  • Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.85 (−15% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.72 (−21% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.22.
  • Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −18%.
  • The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (8.99k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).
  • Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 9.63k (+7% vs 2023), 2100 — 8.22k (−8% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 3.5k.
  • Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −11%.
  • The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (580k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2030).
  • The UN 2022 projection expected this level (580k) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.
  • Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 777k (+34% vs 2023), 2100 — 831k (+43% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 581k.

UN projections vs actual

Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.

Population

persons, 1 July
Western Sahara: PopulationActual 2023: 580k0200k400k600k800k1M19902000201020202030
  • Actual
  • UN 1998
  • UN 2000
  • UN 2002
  • UN 2004
  • UN 2006
  • UN 2008
  • UN 2010
  • UN 2012
  • UN 2015
  • UN 2017
  • UN 2019
  • UN 2022
  • UN 2024, medium
ReleaseTarget periodHorizonExpectedActualActual vs expected
UN 1998202325 years459k580k+26.4%
UN 2000202323 years425k580k+36.5%
UN 2002202321 years464k580k+25%
UN 2004202319 years662k580k−12.5%
UN 2006202317 years757k580k−23.4%
UN 2008202315 years757k580k−23.4%
UN 2010202313 years750k580k−22.7%
UN 2012202311 years723k580k−19.8%
UN 201520238 years665k580k−12.8%
UN 201720236 years640k580k−9.4%
UN 201920234 years640k580k−9.5%
UN 202220231 year587k580k−1.3%

Births

births per year
Western Sahara: BirthsActual 2023: 8.99k4k6k8k10k12k14k19902000201020202030
  • Actual
  • UN 1998
  • UN 2000
  • UN 2002
  • UN 2004
  • UN 2006
  • UN 2008
  • UN 2010
  • UN 2012
  • UN 2015
  • UN 2017
  • UN 2019
  • UN 2022
  • UN 2024, medium
ReleaseTarget periodHorizonExpectedActualActual vs expected
UN 19982015–202020 years7.67k9.32k+21.6%
UN 20002015–202018 years8.43k9.32k+10.6%
UN 20022015–202016 years9.35k9.32k−0.3%
UN 20042015–202014 years13.8k9.32k−32.3%
UN 20062015–202012 years13.6k9.32k−31.3%
UN 20082015–202010 years13.6k9.32k−31.3%
UN 20102015–20208 years12.9k9.32k−27.7%
UN 20122015–20206 years12.1k9.32k−23%
UN 20152015–20202 years10.3k9.32k−9.9%
UN 20172015–20200 years11.4k9.32k−18.3%
UN 202220231 year9.32k8.99k−3.6%

Total fertility rate

children per woman
Western Sahara: Total fertility rateActual 2023: 2.161234519902000201020202030
  • Actual
  • UN 1998
  • UN 2000
  • UN 2002
  • UN 2004
  • UN 2006
  • UN 2008
  • UN 2010
  • UN 2012
  • UN 2015
  • UN 2017
  • UN 2019
  • UN 2022
  • UN 2024, medium
ReleaseTarget periodHorizonExpectedActualActual vs expected
UN 19982015–202020 years2.102.33+11.1%
UN 20002015–202018 years2.672.33−12.6%
UN 20022015–202016 years2.792.33−16.3%
UN 20042015–202014 years2.842.33−17.8%
UN 20062015–202012 years2.382.33−2.1%
UN 20082015–202010 years2.382.33−2.1%
UN 20102015–20208 years2.272.33+3%
UN 20122015–20206 years2.222.33+5%
UN 20152015–20202 years2.062.33+13%
UN 20172015–20200 years2.422.33−3.4%
UN 202220231 year2.252.16−3.7%

All indicators

Demography

Population

580k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023

Western Sahara: Population1950: 13k; 2023: 580k0200k400k600k800k19501975200020252050

Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.

Source: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024

Births

8.99k births per year latest value, 2023

Western Sahara: Births1950: 0.56k; 2023: 8.99k02k4k6k8k10k19501975200020252050

Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).

Source: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024

Total fertility rate

2.16 children per woman latest value, 2023

Western Sahara: Total fertility rate1950: 6.01; 2023: 2.160.002.004.006.008.0019501975200020252050

Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.

Source: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024

Life expectancy at birth, women

73.5 years latest value, 2023

Western Sahara: Life expectancy at birth, women1950: 36.5; 2023: 73.502040608019501975200020252050

Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).

Source: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024

Life expectancy at birth, men

69.7 years latest value, 2023

Western Sahara: Life expectancy at birth, men1950: 33.4; 2023: 69.702040608019501975200020252050

Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).

Source: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024

Median age

32 years latest value, 2023

Western Sahara: Median age1950: 18.3; 2023: 3201020304019501975200020252050

Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).

Source: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024

Mean age of mothers at childbirth

30 years latest value, 2023

Western Sahara: Mean age of mothers at childbirth1950: 29.2; 2023: 3001020304019501975200020252050

Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).

Source: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024

Sex ratio at birth

105.1 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023

Western Sahara: Sex ratio at birth1950: 105; 2023: 105.105010015019501975200020252050

Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).

Source: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024

Net migration

5.61k persons per year latest value, 2023

Western Sahara: Net migration1950: 0.96k; 2023: 5.61k−20k−10k010k20k19501975200020252050

Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).

Source: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024

Old-age dependency

8.9 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020

Western Sahara: Old-age dependency1950: 6.1; 2020: 8.9010203019501975200020252050

Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).

Source: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024

Same region: Africa

AlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepublicChadComorosCôte d'IvoireDR CongoDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEritreaEswatiniEthiopiaGabonGambiaGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMayotteMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRepublic of the CongoRwandaRéunionSaint HelenaSao Tome and PrincipeSenegalSeychellesSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSouth SudanSudanTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZambiaZimbabwe