Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
Fertility (TFR): 3.87 in 1950 → 1.39 in 2023 (−64%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1995, below 1.5 since 2007. The trend broke around 1968 and 1974: −0.01 → −0.14 → −0.03 a year.
Births: 14.4k in 1950 → 14.5k in 2023 (+1%). Low: 11.1k in 1975; +31% since then. The trend broke around 1993 and 2000: +0.01k → −0.4k → +0.15k a year.
Population: 494k in 1950 → 1.35M in 2023 (×2.7). The trend broke around 1987: change sped up (+5.13k → +17.3k a year).
Internet: 0% in 1990 → 89.6% in 2024 (+90 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1999, above 50% since 2010. Fastest growth in 1997–2002: 4.4% → 28.3%.
Urban share: 35.3% in 1960 → 66.7% in 2025 (+31 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1975. The trend broke around 1971 and 1983: +0.41 → +2.2 → +0.01 a year.
GDP per person (PPP): 27,667 PPP dollars in 1990 → 54,103 PPP dollars in 2025 (+96%). The trend broke around 2008 and 2014: +1,011 → −1,339 → +1,673 a year.
GDP growth: on average 6.1% in the 1980s, 4.9% in the 1990s, 3.8% in the 2000s, 1.9% in the 2010s, 4.6% in the 2020s. Lowest: −6.6% in 2013; highest: 11.4% in 2021.
Inflation: on average 5.8% in the 1980s, 3.8% in the 1990s, 2.6% in the 2000s, 0.9% in the 2010s, 2.7% in the 2020s. Lowest: −1.6% in 2015; highest: 13.5% in 1980.
What changed at the same time
The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1965–1975: 3.47 → 2.11. Over the same years: births 15.5k → 11.1k; population 618k → 659k; urban share 38.4% → 50.4%; no data for the others in those years.
Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.30 → 1.39; births 13.1k → 14.5k; population 1.18M → 1.35M; internet 65.5% → 91.2%; urban share 67.2% → 66.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 36,651 PPP dollars → 51,675 PPP dollars; GDP growth −6.6% → 3.6%; inflation 0.4% → 3.9%.
How the indicators relate
Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 33 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.07). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.15). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Forecasts vs actual
Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −16%.
The UN 2017 projection expected today's level (1.39, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.
Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.42 (+2% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.51 (+9% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.01.
Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +21%.
Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 12.4k (−15% vs 2023), 2100 — 9.91k (−32% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 4k.
Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 12; median gap +22%.
The UN 2004 projection did not expect today's level (1.35M, 2023) before its horizon ended (2050).
The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.35M, 2023) only around 2039: reality is 16 years ahead of it.
Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.51M (+12% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.28M (−5% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 902k.
GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (35 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 0.5 pp above the forecast; below it in 34% of cases; typical error ±3.3 pp. The biggest miss was for 2013: IMF, April 2012 expected 0.8%, the outcome was −6.6%.
GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 3%, 2028 — 3%, 2031 — 3%.
Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (35 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 0.1 pp below the forecast; below it in 54% of cases; typical error ±1.7 pp. The biggest miss was for 2022: IMF, April 2021 expected 0.8%, the outcome was 8.1%.
Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 2.6%, 2028 — 2%, 2031 — 2%.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 1998
2023
25 years
895k
1.35M
+50.3%
UN 2000
2023
23 years
894k
1.35M
+50.4%
UN 2002
2023
21 years
888k
1.35M
+51.5%
UN 2004
2023
19 years
998k
1.35M
+34.8%
UN 2006
2023
17 years
1M
1.35M
+34.3%
UN 2008
2023
15 years
997k
1.35M
+35%
UN 2010
2023
13 years
1.25M
1.35M
+8%
UN 2012
2023
11 years
1.25M
1.35M
+7.8%
UN 2015
2023
8 years
1.25M
1.35M
+8%
UN 2017
2023
6 years
1.23M
1.35M
+9.2%
UN 2019
2023
4 years
1.23M
1.35M
+9.3%
UN 2022
2023
1 year
1.26M
1.35M
+6.7%
Births
births per year
Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 1998
2015–2020
20 years
11.4k
14.1k
+23.8%
UN 2000
2015–2020
18 years
11.4k
14.1k
+23.4%
UN 2002
2015–2020
16 years
11.1k
14.1k
+26.9%
UN 2004
2015–2020
14 years
11.4k
14.1k
+24.2%
UN 2006
2015–2020
12 years
11.7k
14.1k
+20.9%
UN 2008
2015–2020
10 years
11.3k
14.1k
+24.4%
UN 2010
2015–2020
8 years
13.2k
14.1k
+7.1%
UN 2012
2015–2020
6 years
13.4k
14.1k
+5.5%
UN 2015
2015–2020
2 years
13k
14.1k
+8.9%
UN 2017
2015–2020
0 years
12.6k
14.1k
+12.4%
UN 2022
2023
1 year
12.3k
14.5k
+17.6%
Total fertility rate
children per woman
Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 1998
2015–2020
20 years
1.90
1.33
−29.8%
UN 2000
2015–2020
18 years
1.90
1.33
−29.8%
UN 2002
2015–2020
16 years
1.85
1.33
−27.9%
UN 2004
2015–2020
14 years
1.64
1.33
−18.5%
UN 2006
2015–2020
12 years
1.68
1.33
−20.7%
UN 2008
2015–2020
10 years
1.60
1.33
−16.4%
UN 2010
2015–2020
8 years
1.44
1.33
−7.6%
UN 2012
2015–2020
6 years
1.47
1.33
−9%
UN 2015
2015–2020
2 years
1.42
1.33
−6.1%
UN 2017
2015–2020
0 years
1.34
1.33
−0.2%
UN 2022
2023
1 year
1.31
1.39
+6%
IMF forecasts vs actual
Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.
Real GDP growth
% per year
Actual (IMF)
WEO, April editions
Indicator
Forecasts
Mean error
Mean absolute error
Actual below forecast
Real GDP growth
35
+0.5 pp
3.3 pp
34%
Inflation
35
−0.1 pp
1.7 pp
54%
Unemployment rate
35
0 pp
1.8 pp
63%
Government gross debt
27
−3.3 pp
12.3 pp
63%
All indicators
Demography
Population
1.35M persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.