Population
23.3M persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Taiwan
All indicators of the Macroscope base for Taiwan, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
Births
108k
births per year, 2025
Total fertility rate
0.70
children per woman, 2025
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 6.48 in 1950 → 0.70 in 2025 (−89%). Peak: 6.69 in 1952; the latest value is 90% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1984, below 1.5 since 2000, below 1.0 since 2020. The trend broke around 1956 and 1981: −0.02 → −0.18 → −0.03 a year.
- Births: 342k in 1950 → 108k in 2025 (−68%). Peak: 432k in 1962; the latest value is 75% lower. The trend broke around 1956 and 1980: +12.4k → −0.99k → −6.14k a year.
- Population: 7.6M in 1950 → 23.3M in 2023 (×3.1). The trend broke around 1983 and 2002: +355k → +185k → +46.7k a year.
- GDP growth: on average 8.7% in the 1980s, 6.6% in the 1990s, 3.9% in the 2000s, 3.7% in the 2010s, 4.6% in the 2020s. Lowest: −1.6% in 2009; highest: 12.8% in 1987.
- Inflation: on average 4.1% in the 1980s, 2.9% in the 1990s, 1.0% in the 2000s, 1.0% in the 2010s, 1.8% in the 2020s. Lowest: −0.9% in 2009; highest: 19% in 1980.
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1963–1973: 5.39 → 3.25. Over the same years: births 431k → 372k; population 12.3M → 15.8M; no data for the others in those years.
- Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.19 → 0.70; births 212k → 108k; population 23.5M (2015); GDP growth 1.5% → 8.7%; inflation −0.3% → 1.7%.
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 revisions (2010–2022) and above in none; median gap −29%.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.08 (+55% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.33 (+91% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 0.83.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 revisions (2010–2022) and above in none; median gap −30%.
- The UN 2010 projection did not expect today's level (108k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2097).
- The UN 2022 projection did not expect today's level (108k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2100).
- National statistics for 2025: 108k, 14% below the UN 2024 medium variant (125k).
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 105k (−3% vs 2025), 2100 — 58.1k (−46% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 17.9k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 6 revisions (2010–2022) and above in 1; median gap −1.9%.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 19.4M (−17% vs 2023), 2100 — 10M (−57% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 6.49M.
- GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 0.3 pp above the forecast; below it in 50% of cases; typical error ±2.5 pp. The biggest miss was for 2010: IMF, April 2009 expected 0%, the outcome was 10.2%.
- GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 5.2%, 2028 — 2.5%, 2031 — 2.1%.
- Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 0.3 pp below the forecast; below it in 58% of cases; typical error ±0.9 pp. The biggest miss was for 2009: IMF, October 2008 expected 2.5%, the outcome was −0.9%.
- Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 1.5%, 2028 — 1.6%, 2031 — 1.5%.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 23.2M | 23.3M | +0.4% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 23.6M | 23.3M | −1.2% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 23.4M | 23.3M | −0.1% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 24M | 23.3M | −2.7% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 23.9M | 23.3M | −2.5% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 23.9M | 23.3M | −2.5% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2010 | 2020–2025 | 12 years | 177k | 139k | −21.8% |
| UN 2012 | 2020–2025 | 10 years | 198k | 139k | −30% |
| UN 2015 | 2020–2025 | 8 years | 168k | 139k | −17.6% |
| UN 2017 | 2020–2025 | 6 years | 213k | 139k | −34.9% |
| UN 2019 | 2020–2025 | 4 years | 200k | 139k | −30.8% |
| UN 2022 | 2025 | 3 years | 187k | 108k | −42.3% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2010 | 2020–2025 | 12 years | 1.19 | 0.89 | −25.3% |
| UN 2012 | 2020–2025 | 10 years | 1.28 | 0.89 | −30.4% |
| UN 2015 | 2020–2025 | 8 years | 1.06 | 0.89 | −16.1% |
| UN 2017 | 2020–2025 | 6 years | 1.31 | 0.89 | −32.3% |
| UN 2019 | 2020–2025 | 4 years | 1.24 | 0.89 | −28% |
| UN 2022 | 2025 | 3 years | 1.18 | 0.70 | −41.3% |
IMF forecasts vs actual
Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.
Real GDP growth
% per year
- Actual (IMF)
- WEO, April editions
| Indicator | Forecasts | Mean error | Mean absolute error | Actual below forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 36 | +0.4 pp | 2.5 pp | 50% |
| Inflation | 36 | −0.3 pp | 0.9 pp | 58% |
| Unemployment rate | 36 | 0 pp | 0.3 pp | 69% |
| Government gross debt | 26 | 0 pp | 2.5 pp | 54% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
108k births per year latest value, 2025
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Total fertility rate
0.70 children per woman latest value, 2025
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
83.6 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
77.6 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
43.5 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
31.9 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
106.8 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
−32.8k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
23.9 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).
Economy
Real GDP growth
8.7 % per year latest value, 2025
Annual change of GDP at constant prices. Actual values and forecasts from IMF WEO editions.
Inflation
1.7 % per year, average latest value, 2025
Change of the annual average consumer price index (IMF WEO).
Government gross debt
26.8 % of GDP latest value, 2024
General government gross debt, percent of GDP (IMF WEO).
Unemployment rate
3.4 % of labour force latest value, 2025
Unemployed as a share of the labour force (IMF WEO; national definitions).
GDP per capita, US dollars
39,489 current US dollars latest value, 2025
GDP per person in current US dollars at market exchange rates (IMF WEO).
In-depth checks
This country has in-depth checks against archives of national projections:
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