Population
10.4M persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Tajikistan
All indicators of the Macroscope base for Tajikistan, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 5.61 in 1950 → 3.07 in 2023 (−45%). Peak: 6.91 in 1968; the latest value is 56% lower. The trend broke around 1973 and 2003: +0.07 → −0.12 → −0.02 a year.
- Births: 64.4k in 1950 → 271k in 2023 (×4.2). The trend broke around 1993 and 2000: +3.92k → −5.23k → +4.68k a year.
- Population: 1.53M in 1950 → 10.4M in 2023 (×6.8). The trend broke around 2010: change sped up (+117k → +216k a year).
- Internet: 0% in 1990 → 55.8% in 2024 (+56 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2009, above 50% since 2023. Fastest growth in 2019–2024: 22.7% → 55.8%.
- Urban share: 33.4% in 1960 → 26.2% in 2025 (−7.2 pp). Peak: 37.1% in 1970; the latest value is 30% lower. The trend broke around 1970 and 2002: +0.42 → −0.35 → −0.01 a year.
- GDP per person (PPP): 4,173 PPP dollars in 1990 → 5,062 PPP dollars in 2025 (+21%). Low: 1,176 PPP dollars in 1996; ×4.3 since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2019: −507 → +112 → +247 a year.
- GDP growth: on average −5.5% in the 1990s, 8.2% in the 2000s, 7.1% in the 2010s, 7.5% in the 2020s. Lowest: −21.4% in 1994; highest: 10.6% in 2004.
- Inflation: on average 591.5% in the 1990s, 16.4% in the 2000s, 6.6% in the 2010s, 7.0% in the 2020s. Lowest: 3.7% in 2023; highest: 2,601% in 1993.
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1990–2000: 5.46 → 3.49. Over the same years: births 233k → 183k; population 5.4M → 6.29M; internet 0% → 0%; urban share 31.9% → 26.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,173 PPP dollars → 1,365 PPP dollars; GDP growth 8.3% (2000); inflation 32.9% (2000).
- Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.43 → 3.07; births 264k → 271k; population 8.22M → 10.4M; internet 16% → 54.4%; urban share 26.5% → 26.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,828 PPP dollars → 4,472 PPP dollars; GDP growth 7.4% → 8.3%; inflation 5% → 3.7%.
How the indicators relate
- Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 26 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.45); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.04).
- Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.99); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.59). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.
- Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.12); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.24). Changes line up best with a 4 years shift: "GDP per person (PPP)" moves first, then "Fertility (TFR)" (r = 0.70).
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +18%.
- The UN 2004 projection expected this level (3.07) already around 2011: reality is 12 years behind it.
- The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.07, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.35 (−23% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.86 (−39% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.36.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +35%.
- The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (271k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 282k (+4% vs 2023), 2100 — 226k (−17% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 90.2k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 12; median gap +19%.
- The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (10.4M, 2023) before its horizon ended (2030).
- The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (10.4M, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 15.6M (+50% vs 2023), 2100 — 20.2M (+94% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 13.3M.
- GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (32 editions, 2007–2022). On average the outcome was 1.9 pp above the forecast; below it in 19% of cases; typical error ±2.3 pp. The biggest miss was for 2023: IMF, April 2022 expected 3.5%, the outcome was 8.3%.
- GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2024 — 8.4%, 2026 — 6%, 2031 — 4.5%.
- Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (32 editions, 2007–2022). On average the outcome was 0.7 pp below the forecast; below it in 59% of cases; typical error ±3.2 pp. The biggest miss was for 2008: IMF, April 2007 expected 9.2%, the outcome was 20.4%.
- Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2024 — 3.5%, 2026 — 4%, 2031 — 5%.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2023 | 25 years | 8.64M | 10.4M | +20.3% |
| UN 2000 | 2023 | 23 years | 7.89M | 10.4M | +31.7% |
| UN 2002 | 2023 | 21 years | 8.03M | 10.4M | +29.4% |
| UN 2004 | 2023 | 19 years | 8.56M | 10.4M | +21.4% |
| UN 2006 | 2023 | 17 years | 8.7M | 10.4M | +19.4% |
| UN 2008 | 2023 | 15 years | 8.83M | 10.4M | +17.6% |
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 8.29M | 10.4M | +25.3% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 10.2M | 10.4M | +2.1% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 9.96M | 10.4M | +4.4% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 10M | 10.4M | +3.8% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 10.2M | 10.4M | +2.3% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 10.1M | 10.4M | +2.4% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2015–2020 | 20 years | 160k | 274k | +71.2% |
| UN 2000 | 2015–2020 | 18 years | 149k | 274k | +84.4% |
| UN 2002 | 2015–2020 | 16 years | 148k | 274k | +85.5% |
| UN 2004 | 2015–2020 | 14 years | 196k | 274k | +40.2% |
| UN 2006 | 2015–2020 | 12 years | 196k | 274k | +39.8% |
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 206k | 274k | +33.3% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 203k | 274k | +35.2% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 276k | 274k | −0.6% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 257k | 274k | +7% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 252k | 274k | +9.1% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 257k | 271k | +5.8% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2015–2020 | 20 years | 2.33 | 3.32 | +42.4% |
| UN 2000 | 2015–2020 | 18 years | 2.24 | 3.32 | +48.3% |
| UN 2002 | 2015–2020 | 16 years | 2.17 | 3.32 | +52.6% |
| UN 2004 | 2015–2020 | 14 years | 2.68 | 3.32 | +23.6% |
| UN 2006 | 2015–2020 | 12 years | 2.68 | 3.32 | +23.6% |
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 2.80 | 3.32 | +18.3% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 2.92 | 3.32 | +13.6% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 3.60 | 3.32 | −7.8% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 3.32 | 3.32 | 0% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 3.28 | 3.32 | +1.1% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 3.10 | 3.07 | −0.8% |
IMF forecasts vs actual
Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.
Real GDP growth
% per year
- Actual (IMF)
- WEO, April editions
| Indicator | Forecasts | Mean error | Mean absolute error | Actual below forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 32 | +1.9 pp | 2.3 pp | 19% |
| Inflation | 32 | −0.7 pp | 3.2 pp | 59% |
| Government gross debt | 24 | −5.3 pp | 8.6 pp | 75% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
271k births per year latest value, 2023
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Total fertility rate
3.07 children per woman latest value, 2023
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
74 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
69.6 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
21.9 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
26.5 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
106.3 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
−20k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
6.3 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).
Digitalisation
Internet users
55.8 % of population latest value, 2024
Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.
Mobile cellular subscriptions
76.2 per 100 people latest value, 2023
Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.
Fixed broadband subscriptions
1 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2023
Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.
Economy
GDP per capita, PPP
5,062 constant 2021 international $ latest value, 2025
Gross domestic product per person at purchasing power parity, constant 2021 international dollars (World Bank, ICP).
Real GDP growth
8.3 % per year latest value, 2023
Annual change of GDP at constant prices. Actual values and forecasts from IMF WEO editions.
Inflation
3.7 % per year, average latest value, 2023
Change of the annual average consumer price index (IMF WEO).
Government gross debt
29.9 % of GDP latest value, 2023
General government gross debt, percent of GDP (IMF WEO).
Unemployment rate
2.5 % of labour force latest value, 2011
Unemployed as a share of the labour force (IMF WEO; national definitions).
GDP per capita, US dollars
1,223 current US dollars latest value, 2023
GDP per person in current US dollars at market exchange rates (IMF WEO).
Society
Urban population
26.2 % of population latest value, 2025
Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).
Tertiary enrolment, women
34.7 % gross latest value, 2024
Women enrolled in tertiary education as a share of women in the five-year age group after secondary school; can exceed 100 (UNESCO).
Women with upper secondary education
76.2 % of women 25+ latest value, 2017
Share of women aged 25+ who completed at least upper secondary education (UNESCO).
Life expectancy at birth
71.9 years latest value, 2024
Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).
Same region: Asia
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