Population
281k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
French Polynesia
All indicators of the Macroscope base for French Polynesia, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 5.47 in 1950 → 1.50 in 2023 (−73%). Peak: 6.00 in 1955; the latest value is 75% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2011. The trend broke around 1967 and 1979: +0.02 → −0.18 → −0.06 a year.
- Births: 2.47k in 1950 → 3.07k in 2023 (+24%). Peak: 6.1k in 1988; the latest value is 50% lower. The trend broke around 1989 and 2013: +0.08k → −0.05k → −0.14k a year.
- Population: 64.3k in 1950 → 281k in 2023 (×4.4). The trend broke around 1965 and 2006: +2.03k → +4.22k → +0.94k a year.
- Internet: 0% in 1990 → 72.7% in 2017 (+73 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2003, above 50% since 2012. Fastest growth in 2005–2010: 21.5% → 49%.
- Urban share: 42.3% in 1960 → 61.8% in 2025 (+19 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1968. The trend broke around 1976 and 1999: +1.1 → −0.15 → +0.28 a year.
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1969–1979: 5.82 → 3.94. Over the same years: births 4.31k → 4.49k; population 110k → 152k; urban share 52.2% → 59.1%; no data for the others in those years.
- Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.94 → 1.50; births 4.32k → 3.07k; population 275k → 281k; internet 56.8% (2013); urban share 61.6% → 61.7%.
How the indicators relate
- Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2017, 23 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.17). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
- Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.14). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −18%.
- The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (1.50, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).
- The UN 2019 projection did not expect today's level (1.50, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.50 (0% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.54 (+3% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.04.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −23%.
- The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (3.07k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).
- The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.07k, 2023) only around 2055: reality is 32 years ahead of it.
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.22k (−28% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.2k (−61% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.33k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −9.3%.
- The UN 1998 projection expected this level (281k) already around 2012: reality is 11 years behind it.
- The UN 2012 projection expected this level (281k) already around 2014: reality is 9 years behind it.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 285k (+1% vs 2023), 2100 — 187k (−34% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 122k.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2023 | 25 years | 318k | 281k | −11.5% |
| UN 2000 | 2023 | 23 years | 312k | 281k | −10% |
| UN 2002 | 2023 | 21 years | 311k | 281k | −9.6% |
| UN 2004 | 2023 | 19 years | 316k | 281k | −11% |
| UN 2006 | 2023 | 17 years | 314k | 281k | −10.4% |
| UN 2008 | 2023 | 15 years | 313k | 281k | −10.1% |
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 305k | 281k | −7.9% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 304k | 281k | −7.4% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 301k | 281k | −6.5% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 295k | 281k | −4.7% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 286k | 281k | −1.6% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 309k | 281k | −9% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2015–2020 | 20 years | 5.06k | 3.65k | −28% |
| UN 2000 | 2015–2020 | 18 years | 4.8k | 3.65k | −23.9% |
| UN 2002 | 2015–2020 | 16 years | 4.79k | 3.65k | −23.9% |
| UN 2004 | 2015–2020 | 14 years | 4.89k | 3.65k | −25.5% |
| UN 2006 | 2015–2020 | 12 years | 4.85k | 3.65k | −24.7% |
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 4.75k | 3.65k | −23.2% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 4.44k | 3.65k | −17.8% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 4.48k | 3.65k | −18.6% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 4.48k | 3.65k | −18.5% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 4.29k | 3.65k | −15% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 3.82k | 3.07k | −19.7% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2015–2020 | 20 years | 2.10 | 1.67 | −20.3% |
| UN 2000 | 2015–2020 | 18 years | 2.10 | 1.67 | −20.3% |
| UN 2002 | 2015–2020 | 16 years | 2.09 | 1.67 | −20% |
| UN 2004 | 2015–2020 | 14 years | 2.07 | 1.67 | −19.3% |
| UN 2006 | 2015–2020 | 12 years | 2.07 | 1.67 | −19.3% |
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 2.05 | 1.67 | −18.3% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 1.92 | 1.67 | −13% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 1.99 | 1.67 | −15.7% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 1.99 | 1.67 | −15.9% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 1.99 | 1.67 | −15.9% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 1.68 | 1.50 | −10.7% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
3.07k births per year latest value, 2023
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Total fertility rate
1.50 children per woman latest value, 2023
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
86.5 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
81.8 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
34.8 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
29.2 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
105.9 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
−1.35k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
14.9 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).
Digitalisation
Internet users
72.7 % of population latest value, 2017
Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.
Mobile cellular subscriptions
118.8 per 100 people latest value, 2023
Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.
Fixed broadband subscriptions
35.6 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2023
Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.
Society
Urban population
61.8 % of population latest value, 2025
Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).
Tertiary enrolment, women
1.5 % gross latest value, 1992
Women enrolled in tertiary education as a share of women in the five-year age group after secondary school; can exceed 100 (UNESCO).
Women with upper secondary education
50.8 % of women 25+ latest value, 2007
Share of women aged 25+ who completed at least upper secondary education (UNESCO).
Life expectancy at birth
84.2 years latest value, 2024
Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).