Population
2.4k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Tokelau
All indicators of the Macroscope base for Tokelau, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 5.12 in 1950 → 2.61 in 2023 (−49%). Peak: 5.73 in 1960; the latest value is 54% lower. The trend broke around 1984 and 1990: −0.05 → +0.08 → −0.07 a year.
- Births: 0.06k in 1950 → 0.05k in 2023 (−18%). Peak: 0.08k in 1962; the latest value is 40% lower. The trend broke around 1963 and 1971: 0k → 0k → 0k a year.
- Population: 1.59k in 1950 → 2.4k in 2023 (+51%). The trend broke around 1962 and 2016: +0.02k → 0k → +0.11k a year.
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1967–1977: 5.37 → 4.22. Over the same years: births 0.07k → 0.05k; population 1.87k → 1.65k.
- Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.04 → 2.61; births 0.03k → 0.05k; population 1.73k → 2.4k.
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −0.9%.
- The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.61, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.14 (−18% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.82 (−30% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.32.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +34%.
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.05k (+15% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.04k (−6% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.02k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 12; median gap +71%.
- The UN 2004 projection did not expect today's level (2.4k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2050).
- The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.4k, 2023) only around 2049: reality is 26 years ahead of it.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.82k (+59% vs 2023), 2100 — 4.37k (+82% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 3.01k.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2023 | 25 years | 1.5k | 2.4k | +59.9% |
| UN 2000 | 2023 | 23 years | 1.45k | 2.4k | +65.2% |
| UN 2002 | 2023 | 21 years | 1.49k | 2.4k | +60.7% |
| UN 2004 | 2023 | 19 years | 1.64k | 2.4k | +46.2% |
| UN 2006 | 2023 | 17 years | 1.41k | 2.4k | +70.6% |
| UN 2008 | 2023 | 15 years | 1.21k | 2.4k | +98.4% |
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 1.23k | 2.4k | +95.6% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 1.39k | 2.4k | +72.4% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 1.39k | 2.4k | +72.8% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 1.38k | 2.4k | +73.3% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 1.38k | 2.4k | +73.3% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 1.89k | 2.4k | +26.7% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 0.04k | 0.05k | +34.3% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 2.64 | 2.61 | −0.9% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
0.05k births per year latest value, 2023
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Total fertility rate
2.61 children per woman latest value, 2023
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
78.9 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
75 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
26.7 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
29.3 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
103 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
0.07k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
14.1 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).