Population
38.8k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Marshall Islands
All indicators of the Macroscope base for Marshall Islands, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 7.76 in 1950 → 2.92 in 2023 (−62%). Peak: 8.20 in 1966; the latest value is 64% lower. The trend broke around 1974: direction reversed (+0.01 → −0.14 a year).
- Births: 0.61k in 1950 → 0.82k in 2023 (+36%). Peak: 1.94k in 2003; the latest value is 58% lower. The trend broke around 1989 and 2005: +0.04k → 0k → −0.06k a year.
- Population: 13k in 1950 → 38.8k in 2023 (×3). Peak: 52k in 2010; the latest value is 25% lower. The trend broke around 1964 and 2003: +0.25k → +1.01k → −0.69k a year.
- Internet: 0% in 1990 → 65.9% in 2024 (+66 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2011, above 50% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2015–2020: 19.3% → 56.4%.
- Urban share: 34.8% in 1960 → 79.1% in 2025 (+44 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1969, above 75% since 2014. The trend broke around 1966 and 1972: +1.5 → +2.6 → +0.38 a year.
- GDP per person (PPP): 3,906 PPP dollars in 1990 → 7,660 PPP dollars in 2025 (+96%). Low: 3,719 PPP dollars in 1999; +106% since then. The trend broke around 2012: change sped up (+1.7 → +272 a year).
- GDP growth: on average 1.3% in the 2000s, 3.0% in the 2010s, −1.6% in the 2020s. Lowest: −7.6% in 2008; highest: 10.5% in 2019.
- Inflation: on average 4.8% in the 2000s, 1.1% in the 2010s, 3.0% in the 2020s. Lowest: −2.2% in 2015; highest: 14.7% in 2008.
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1985–1995: 6.87 → 5.09. Over the same years: births 1.82k → 1.86k; population 37.8k → 48.3k; internet 0% (1995); urban share 64% → 67.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,704 PPP dollars (1995); no data for the others in those years.
- Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.25 → 2.92; births 1.34k → 0.82k; population 50.7k → 38.8k; internet 14% → 64.1%; urban share 74.7% → 78.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,470 PPP dollars → 6,775 PPP dollars; GDP growth 3.8% → −5.3%; inflation 1.9% → 7.4%.
How the indicators relate
- Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 32 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.77); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.14). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
- Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.87); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.38). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
- Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.69); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.19).
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +11%.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.11 (−28% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.75 (−40% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.25.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +7.7%.
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.44k (−46% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.26k (−68% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.09k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −39%.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 25.2k (−35% vs 2023), 2100 — 23.8k (−39% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 13.3k.
- GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (20 editions, 2013–2022). On average the outcome was 0.6 pp below the forecast; below it in 45% of cases; typical error ±3.8 pp. The biggest miss was for 2019: IMF, April 2018 expected 1.7%, the outcome was 10.5%.
- GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2024 — 3%, 2026 — 3.7%, 2031 — 1.6%.
- Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (20 editions, 2013–2022). On average the outcome was 0.7 pp below the forecast; below it in 70% of cases; typical error ±2 pp. The biggest miss was for 2023: IMF, October 2022 expected 2.2%, the outcome was 7.4%.
- Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2024 — 5.2%, 2026 — 7.4%, 2031 — 2.4%.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2023 | 25 years | 121k | 38.8k | −68% |
| UN 2000 | 2023 | 23 years | 67.2k | 38.8k | −42.2% |
| UN 2002 | 2023 | 21 years | 63.8k | 38.8k | −39.1% |
| UN 2004 | 2023 | 19 years | 99.7k | 38.8k | −61.1% |
| UN 2006 | 2023 | 17 years | 77.5k | 38.8k | −49.9% |
| UN 2008 | 2023 | 15 years | 77.5k | 38.8k | −49.9% |
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 63.9k | 38.8k | −39.2% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 55.8k | 38.8k | −30.4% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 53.4k | 38.8k | −27.3% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 53.4k | 38.8k | −27.3% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 60.5k | 38.8k | −35.8% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 42k | 38.8k | −7.5% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 0.76k | 0.82k | +7.7% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 2.64 | 2.92 | +10.7% |
IMF forecasts vs actual
Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.
Real GDP growth
% per year
- Actual (IMF)
- WEO, April editions
| Indicator | Forecasts | Mean error | Mean absolute error | Actual below forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 20 | −0.6 pp | 3.8 pp | 45% |
| Inflation | 20 | −0.7 pp | 2 pp | 70% |
| Government gross debt | 19 | −3.9 pp | 6 pp | 68% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
0.82k births per year latest value, 2023
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Total fertility rate
2.92 children per woman latest value, 2023
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
69.3 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
64.9 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
20.7 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
27.1 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
107 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
−1.83k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
7.3 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).
Digitalisation
Internet users
65.9 % of population latest value, 2024
Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.
Mobile cellular subscriptions
39.7 per 100 people latest value, 2022
Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.
Fixed broadband subscriptions
2.4 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2022
Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.
Economy
GDP per capita, PPP
7,660 constant 2021 international $ latest value, 2025
Gross domestic product per person at purchasing power parity, constant 2021 international dollars (World Bank, ICP).
Real GDP growth
−5.3 % per year latest value, 2023
Annual change of GDP at constant prices. Actual values and forecasts from IMF WEO editions.
Inflation
7.4 % per year, average latest value, 2023
Change of the annual average consumer price index (IMF WEO).
Government gross debt
18.2 % of GDP latest value, 2023
General government gross debt, percent of GDP (IMF WEO).
GDP per capita, US dollars
6,527 current US dollars latest value, 2023
GDP per person in current US dollars at market exchange rates (IMF WEO).
Society
Urban population
79.1 % of population latest value, 2025
Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).
Tertiary enrolment, women
43.9 % gross latest value, 2024
Women enrolled in tertiary education as a share of women in the five-year age group after secondary school; can exceed 100 (UNESCO).
Women with upper secondary education
63.7 % of women 25+ latest value, 2019
Share of women aged 25+ who completed at least upper secondary education (UNESCO).
Life expectancy at birth
67.1 years latest value, 2024
Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).