Population
167k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Guam
All indicators of the Macroscope base for Guam, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 5.21 in 1950 → 2.78 in 2023 (−47%). Peak: 6.45 in 1957; the latest value is 57% lower. The trend broke around 1957 and 1979: +0.17 → −0.16 → 0 a year.
- Births: 1.76k in 1950 → 2.94k in 2023 (+67%). Peak: 3.76k in 1998; the latest value is 22% lower. The trend broke around 1984 and 1992: +0.03k → +0.08k → −0.02k a year.
- Population: 60.8k in 1950 → 167k in 2023 (×2.7). The trend broke around 1968 and 2001: +1.33k → +2.49k → +0.02k a year.
- Internet: 0% in 1990 → 80.5% in 2017 (+81 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2009. Fastest growth in 1998–2003: 4.5% → 33.7%.
- Urban share: 79.3% in 1960 → 94.2% in 2025 (+15 pp). The trend broke around 1966 and 2009: +1.2 → +0.15 → +0.01 a year.
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1962–1972: 5.90 → 4.05. Over the same years: births 2.5k → 2.73k; population 73.2k → 92.6k; urban share 83.1% → 88.7%; no data for the others in those years.
- Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.88 → 2.78; births 3.31k → 2.94k; population 166k → 167k; internet 65.4% (2013); urban share 94.1% → 94.1%.
How the indicators relate
- Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2017, 25 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.01); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.22).
- Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +30%.
- The UN 2000 projection expected this level (2.78) already around 2017: reality is 6 years behind it.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.15 (−23% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.84 (−34% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.34.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −0.8%.
- The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (2.94k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).
- The UN 2008 projection expected today's level (2.94k, 2023) only around 2046: reality is 23 years ahead of it.
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.78k (−5% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.01k (−32% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.83k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −20%.
- The UN 1998 projection expected this level (167k) already around 1999: reality is 24 years behind it.
- The UN 2017 projection expected this level (167k) already around 2018: reality is 5 years behind it.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 192k (+15% vs 2023), 2100 — 206k (+23% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 143k.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2023 | 25 years | 223k | 167k | −25.4% |
| UN 2000 | 2023 | 23 years | 236k | 167k | −29.4% |
| UN 2002 | 2023 | 21 years | 210k | 167k | −20.9% |
| UN 2004 | 2023 | 19 years | 213k | 167k | −21.7% |
| UN 2006 | 2023 | 17 years | 208k | 167k | −19.8% |
| UN 2008 | 2023 | 15 years | 208k | 167k | −19.8% |
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 208k | 167k | −20% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 187k | 167k | −10.7% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 187k | 167k | −10.8% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 173k | 167k | −3.6% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 173k | 167k | −3.7% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 173k | 167k | −3.7% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2015–2020 | 20 years | 3.53k | 3.28k | −7.3% |
| UN 2000 | 2015–2020 | 18 years | 4.63k | 3.28k | −29.3% |
| UN 2002 | 2015–2020 | 16 years | 3.54k | 3.28k | −7.5% |
| UN 2004 | 2015–2020 | 14 years | 3.49k | 3.28k | −6.1% |
| UN 2006 | 2015–2020 | 12 years | 3.3k | 3.28k | −0.8% |
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 3.3k | 3.28k | −0.8% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 3.34k | 3.28k | −2% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 2.95k | 3.28k | +10.9% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 2.96k | 3.28k | +10.6% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 2.75k | 3.28k | +19.2% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 2.82k | 2.94k | +4.2% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2015–2020 | 20 years | 2.10 | 3.02 | +43.9% |
| UN 2000 | 2015–2020 | 18 years | 2.79 | 3.02 | +8.3% |
| UN 2002 | 2015–2020 | 16 years | 2.34 | 3.02 | +29.2% |
| UN 2004 | 2015–2020 | 14 years | 2.37 | 3.02 | +27.8% |
| UN 2006 | 2015–2020 | 12 years | 2.27 | 3.02 | +32.9% |
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 2.27 | 3.02 | +32.9% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 2.30 | 3.02 | +31.1% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 2.31 | 3.02 | +30.8% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 2.32 | 3.02 | +30.4% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 2.32 | 3.02 | +30.3% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 2.53 | 2.78 | +10.1% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
2.94k births per year latest value, 2023
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Total fertility rate
2.78 children per woman latest value, 2023
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
81.4 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
73.4 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
31.1 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
29.1 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
107 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
−0.5k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
19.2 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).
Digitalisation
Internet users
80.5 % of population latest value, 2017
Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.
Mobile cellular subscriptions
59.8 per 100 people latest value, 2004
Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.
Fixed broadband subscriptions
1.8 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2022
Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.
Society
Urban population
94.2 % of population latest value, 2025
Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).
Life expectancy at birth
77.4 years latest value, 2024
Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).