Population
45.1k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Northern Mariana Islands
All indicators of the Macroscope base for Northern Mariana Islands, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 6.08 in 1950 → 2.35 in 2023 (−61%). Peak: 7.74 in 1968; the latest value is 70% lower. The trend broke around 1972 and 1984: +0.05 → −0.37 → +0.01 a year.
- Births: 0.32k in 1950 → 0.58k in 2023 (+83%). Peak: 1.62k in 1993; the latest value is 64% lower. The trend broke around 1985 and 1993: +0.01k → +0.13k → −0.03k a year.
- Population: 7.11k in 1950 → 45.1k in 2023 (×6.3). Peak: 68.4k in 2000; the latest value is 34% lower. The trend broke around 1978 and 2001: +0.29k → +2.25k → −1.02k a year.
- Internet: 0% in 1990; no earlier data in this period.
- Urban share: 80.1% in 1960 → 92.2% in 2025 (+12 pp). The trend broke around 1969 and 1975: +0.04 → +1 → +0.11 a year.
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1972–1982: 6.78 → 2.90. Over the same years: births 0.51k → 0.55k; population 12.6k → 22.4k; urban share 86.4% → 87.2%; no data for the others in those years.
- Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.54 → 2.35; births 1.2k → 0.58k; population 52.8k → 45.1k; urban share 91.2% → 92%; no data for the others in those years.
How the indicators relate
- Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.24). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +10%.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.91 (−19% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.78 (−24% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.28.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −4.4%.
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.47k (−19% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.38k (−35% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.16k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −48%.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 42.8k (−5% vs 2023), 2100 — 41.6k (−8% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 29.5k.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2023 | 25 years | 228k | 45.1k | −80.2% |
| UN 2000 | 2023 | 23 years | 151k | 45.1k | −70.1% |
| UN 2002 | 2023 | 21 years | 140k | 45.1k | −67.8% |
| UN 2004 | 2023 | 19 years | 108k | 45.1k | −58.2% |
| UN 2006 | 2023 | 17 years | 108k | 45.1k | −58.3% |
| UN 2008 | 2023 | 15 years | 108k | 45.1k | −58.3% |
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 72.6k | 45.1k | −37.8% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 56.3k | 45.1k | −19.8% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 56k | 45.1k | −19.4% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 55.8k | 45.1k | −19.1% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 58.6k | 45.1k | −23% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 49.8k | 45.1k | −9.4% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 0.61k | 0.58k | −4.4% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 2.13 | 2.35 | +10.4% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
0.58k births per year latest value, 2023
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Total fertility rate
2.35 children per woman latest value, 2023
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
80.7 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
77.1 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
36.1 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
29.1 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
115.1 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
−1.32k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
10 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).
Digitalisation
Internet users
0 % of population latest value, 1990
Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.
Mobile cellular subscriptions
32 per 100 people latest value, 2004
Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.
Society
Urban population
92.2 % of population latest value, 2025
Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).
Life expectancy at birth
78.9 years latest value, 2024
Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).