Population
11.9k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Nauru
All indicators of the Macroscope base for Nauru, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
GDP per capita, PPP
12,135
constant 2021 international $, 2025
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 4.60 in 1950 → 3.33 in 2023 (−28%). Peak: 5.48 in 1965; the latest value is 39% lower. The trend broke around 1965 and 1974: +0.07 → −0.18 → −0.01 a year.
- Births: 0.1k in 1950 → 0.3k in 2023 (×3). Peak: 0.38k in 2015; the latest value is 19% lower. The trend broke around 1976 and 1983: 0k → +0.02k → 0k a year.
- Population: 3.41k in 1950 → 11.9k in 2023 (×3.5). The trend broke around 1995 and 2009: +0.16k → −0.02k → +0.15k a year.
- Internet: 0% in 1990 → 83% in 2024 (+83 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2011, above 50% since 2011. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 62.4% → 83.2%.
- Urban share: 100% in 1960 → 100% in 2025 (0 pp).
- GDP per person (PPP): 30,127 PPP dollars in 1990 → 12,135 PPP dollars in 2025 (−60%). Low: 6,110 PPP dollars in 2007; +99% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2004: −2,615 → −570 → +297 a year.
- GDP growth: on average 0.1% in the 2000s, 6.8% in the 2010s. Lowest: −22.2% in 2007; highest: 25.3% in 2012.
- Inflation: on average 11.4% in the 2000s, 2.2% in the 2010s, 2.2% in the 2020s. Lowest: −3.4% in 2011; highest: 22.4% in 2009.
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1966–1976: 5.41 → 3.90. Over the same years: births 0.18k → 0.14k; population 6.04k → 7.06k; urban share 100% → 100%; no data for the others in those years.
- Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.10 → 3.33; births 0.37k → 0.3k; population 10.5k → 11.9k; internet 83% (2023); urban share 100% → 100%; GDP per person (PPP) 9,800 PPP dollars → 11,859 PPP dollars; GDP growth 3.6% (2013); inflation −1.1% → 4.8%.
How the indicators relate
- Fertility (TFR) and internet: too few common years with data (9) to speak of a relationship.
- Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.37); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.26).
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −2.7%.
- The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.33, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.53 (−24% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.97 (−41% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.47.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −9%.
- The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (0.3k, 2023) only around 2029: reality is 6 years ahead of it.
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.32k (+6% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.28k (−7% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.13k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +7.1%.
- The UN 1998 projection expected this level (11.9k) already around 2001: reality is 22 years behind it.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 15.8k (+33% vs 2023), 2100 — 20.7k (+74% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 13.6k.
- GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (6 editions, 2017–2019). On average the outcome was 4.5 pp above the forecast; below it in 0% of cases; typical error ±4.5 pp. The biggest miss was for 2019: IMF, October 2018 expected −1%, the outcome was 8.5%.
- GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2021 — 7.2%, 2023 — −0.3%, 2031 — 2%.
- Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (12 editions, 2017–2022). On average the outcome was 0.4 pp above the forecast; below it in 50% of cases; typical error ±1.4 pp. The biggest miss was for 2023: IMF, April 2022 expected 2%, the outcome was 4.8%.
- Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2024 — 9.3%, 2026 — 5.5%, 2031 — 2.5%.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2023 | 25 years | 17.2k | 11.9k | −31.1% |
| UN 2000 | 2023 | 23 years | 19.4k | 11.9k | −38.7% |
| UN 2002 | 2023 | 21 years | 19.2k | 11.9k | −38.2% |
| UN 2004 | 2023 | 19 years | 16.3k | 11.9k | −26.9% |
| UN 2006 | 2023 | 17 years | 10.9k | 11.9k | +8.6% |
| UN 2008 | 2023 | 15 years | 10.9k | 11.9k | +8.8% |
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 10.9k | 11.9k | +9.1% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 10.6k | 11.9k | +12% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 10.5k | 11.9k | +12.9% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 11.3k | 11.9k | +5.5% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 10.9k | 11.9k | +8.8% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 12.8k | 11.9k | −7% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 0.33k | 0.3k | −9% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 3.43 | 3.33 | −2.7% |
IMF forecasts vs actual
Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.
Real GDP growth
% per year
- Actual (IMF)
- WEO, April editions
| Indicator | Forecasts | Mean error | Mean absolute error | Actual below forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 6 | +4.5 pp | 4.5 pp | 0% |
| Inflation | 12 | +0.4 pp | 1.4 pp | 50% |
| Government gross debt | 13 | −8.5 pp | 11.7 pp | 77% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
0.3k births per year latest value, 2023
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Total fertility rate
3.33 children per woman latest value, 2023
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
64 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
60.3 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
20.4 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
27.1 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
107.2 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
−0.15k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
4.2 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).
Digitalisation
Internet users
83 % of population latest value, 2024
Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.
Mobile cellular subscriptions
87.2 per 100 people latest value, 2022
Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.
Fixed broadband subscriptions
10 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2022
Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.
Economy
GDP per capita, PPP
12,135 constant 2021 international $ latest value, 2025
Gross domestic product per person at purchasing power parity, constant 2021 international dollars (World Bank, ICP).
Real GDP growth
2 % per year latest value, 2020
Annual change of GDP at constant prices. Actual values and forecasts from IMF WEO editions.
Inflation
4.8 % per year, average latest value, 2023
Change of the annual average consumer price index (IMF WEO).
Government gross debt
16.9 % of GDP latest value, 2024
General government gross debt, percent of GDP (IMF WEO).
GDP per capita, US dollars
10,722 current US dollars latest value, 2020
GDP per person in current US dollars at market exchange rates (IMF WEO).
Society
Urban population
100 % of population latest value, 2025
Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).
Women with upper secondary education
41.2 % of women 25+ latest value, 2023
Share of women aged 25+ who completed at least upper secondary education (UNESCO).
Life expectancy at birth
62.3 years latest value, 2024
Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).