Population
17.7k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Palau
All indicators of the Macroscope base for Palau, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
GDP per capita, PPP
19,699
constant 2021 international $, 2025
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 7.15 in 1950 → 1.91 in 2023 (−73%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 1998. The trend broke around 1968 and 1981: −0.01 → −0.31 → −0.03 a year.
- Births: 0.35k in 1950 → 0.19k in 2023 (−44%). Peak: 0.43k in 1961; the latest value is 55% lower. The trend broke around 1962 and 1979: +0.01k → −0.01k → 0k a year.
- Population: 7.47k in 1950 → 17.7k in 2023 (+137%). Peak: 19.8k in 2004; the latest value is 11% lower. The trend broke around 1987 and 2001: +0.17k → +0.39k → −0.11k a year.
- Internet: 0% in 1990 → 83.9% in 2024 (+84 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2022.
- Urban share: 43.9% in 1960 → 79.3% in 2025 (+35 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1964, above 75% since 2004. The trend broke around 1969 and 2013: +1.5 → +0.52 → −0.16 a year.
- GDP per person (PPP): 17,808 PPP dollars in 1990 → 19,699 PPP dollars in 2025 (+11%). Low: 14,292 PPP dollars in 1993; +38% since then.
- GDP growth: on average 0.6% in the 2000s, 1.3% in the 2010s, −4.3% in the 2020s. Lowest: −11.9% in 2021; highest: 8.6% in 2015.
- Inflation: on average 2.8% in the 2000s, 2.1% in the 2010s, 5.0% in the 2020s. Lowest: −1.3% in 2016; highest: 13.2% in 2022.
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1969–1979: 6.58 → 3.49. Over the same years: births 0.42k → 0.29k; population 11.2k → 12.3k; urban share 57.4% → 62.1%; no data for the others in those years.
- Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.05 → 1.91; births 0.25k → 0.19k; population 17.7k → 17.7k; internet 82.9% (2023); urban share 81.1% → 79.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 17,891 PPP dollars → 16,487 PPP dollars; GDP growth −1.4% → 1.2%; inflation 2.8% → 12.4%.
How the indicators relate
- Fertility (TFR) and internet: too few common years with data (6) to speak of a relationship.
- Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.64). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.
- Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.20); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.02).
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −19%.
- The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.91, 2023) only around 2055: reality is 32 years ahead of it.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.72 (−10% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.69 (−12% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.19.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −27%.
- The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (0.19k, 2023) only around 2068: reality is 45 years ahead of it.
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.16k (−19% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.11k (−45% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.04k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −23%.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 15.5k (−12% vs 2023), 2100 — 11.1k (−37% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 6.95k.
- GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (19 editions, 2013–2022). On average the outcome was 6.5 pp below the forecast; below it in 84% of cases; typical error ±8 pp. The biggest miss was for 2021: IMF, April 2020 expected 14.4%, the outcome was −11.9%.
- GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2024 — 12%, 2026 — 3.3%, 2031 — 2%.
- Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (23 editions, 2013–2024). On average the outcome was 0.6 pp above the forecast; below it in 70% of cases; typical error ±2.9 pp. The biggest miss was for 2022: IMF, April 2021 expected 1%, the outcome was 13.2%.
- Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 5.9%, 2028 — 2.1%, 2031 — 2.1%.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2023 | 25 years | 32k | 17.7k | −44.6% |
| UN 2000 | 2023 | 23 years | 29.1k | 17.7k | −39.1% |
| UN 2002 | 2023 | 21 years | 29.2k | 17.7k | −39.2% |
| UN 2004 | 2023 | 19 years | 21.9k | 17.7k | −19% |
| UN 2006 | 2023 | 17 years | 22.8k | 17.7k | −22.1% |
| UN 2008 | 2023 | 15 years | 22.9k | 17.7k | −22.7% |
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 23.2k | 17.7k | −23.5% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 23.2k | 17.7k | −23.5% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 23.2k | 17.7k | −23.5% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 23.2k | 17.7k | −23.5% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 18.3k | 17.7k | −3% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 18.1k | 17.7k | −1.8% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 0.27k | 0.19k | −27.4% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 2.34 | 1.91 | −18.5% |
IMF forecasts vs actual
Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.
Real GDP growth
% per year
- Actual (IMF)
- WEO, April editions
| Indicator | Forecasts | Mean error | Mean absolute error | Actual below forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 19 | −6.5 pp | 8 pp | 84% |
| Inflation | 23 | +0.6 pp | 2.9 pp | 70% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
0.19k births per year latest value, 2023
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Total fertility rate
1.91 children per woman latest value, 2023
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
71.8 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
67.2 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
37.8 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
28.5 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
107.7 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
−0.02k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
14.6 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).
Digitalisation
Internet users
83.9 % of population latest value, 2024
Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.
Mobile cellular subscriptions
135.4 per 100 people latest value, 2023
Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.
Fixed broadband subscriptions
7.3 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2023
Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.
Economy
GDP per capita, PPP
19,699 constant 2021 international $ latest value, 2025
Gross domestic product per person at purchasing power parity, constant 2021 international dollars (World Bank, ICP).
Real GDP growth
1.2 % per year latest value, 2023
Annual change of GDP at constant prices. Actual values and forecasts from IMF WEO editions.
Inflation
0.3 % per year, average latest value, 2025
Change of the annual average consumer price index (IMF WEO).
Government gross debt
76.4 % of GDP latest value, 2023
General government gross debt, percent of GDP (IMF WEO).
GDP per capita, US dollars
15,692 current US dollars latest value, 2023
GDP per person in current US dollars at market exchange rates (IMF WEO).
Society
Urban population
79.3 % of population latest value, 2025
Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).
Tertiary enrolment, women
86.5 % gross latest value, 2024
Women enrolled in tertiary education as a share of women in the five-year age group after secondary school; can exceed 100 (UNESCO).
Women with upper secondary education
90.1 % of women 25+ latest value, 2020
Share of women aged 25+ who completed at least upper secondary education (UNESCO).
Life expectancy at birth
69.4 years latest value, 2024
Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).