Population
290k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
New Caledonia
All indicators of the Macroscope base for New Caledonia, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 5.13 in 1950 → 1.98 in 2023 (−61%). Peak: 5.47 in 1961; the latest value is 64% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2015. The trend broke around 1970 and 1984: 0 → −0.15 → −0.03 a year.
- Births: 2.24k in 1950 → 4.13k in 2023 (+85%). Peak: 4.73k in 2000; the latest value is 13% lower. The trend broke around 1973 and 2000: +0.08k → +0.02k → −0.01k a year.
- Population: 63.8k in 1950 → 290k in 2023 (×4.5). The trend broke around 2014: change slowed down (+4.26k → +0.74k a year).
- Internet: 0% in 1990 → 82% in 2017 (+82 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2011. Fastest growth in 2009–2014: 34% → 70%.
- Urban share: 36.6% in 1960 → 68.2% in 2025 (+32 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1969. The trend broke around 1972: change slowed down (+1.5 → +0.29 a year).
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1973–1983: 4.93 → 3.35. Over the same years: births 4.28k → 4.01k; population 126k → 155k; urban share 54.1% → 58.6%; no data for the others in those years.
- Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.17 → 1.98; births 4.55k → 4.13k; population 277k → 290k; internet 66% (2013); urban share 66.8% → 67.8%.
How the indicators relate
- Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2017, 23 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.06). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
- Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.30). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −0.3%.
- The UN 2002 projection expected today's level (1.98, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.
- The UN 2017 projection expected today's level (1.98, 2023) only around 2029: reality is 6 years ahead of it.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.77 (−10% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.71 (−14% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.21.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +2.6%.
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.76k (−9% vs 2023), 2100 — 3.04k (−26% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.27k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −2.2%.
- The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (290k, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.
- The UN 2019 projection expected this level (290k) already around 2021: reality is 2 years behind it.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 341k (+17% vs 2023), 2100 — 337k (+16% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 237k.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2023 | 25 years | 280k | 290k | +3.4% |
| UN 2000 | 2023 | 23 years | 308k | 290k | −6% |
| UN 2002 | 2023 | 21 years | 308k | 290k | −5.9% |
| UN 2004 | 2023 | 19 years | 307k | 290k | −5.6% |
| UN 2006 | 2023 | 17 years | 297k | 290k | −2.3% |
| UN 2008 | 2023 | 15 years | 298k | 290k | −2.7% |
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 296k | 290k | −2.1% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 290k | 290k | +0.1% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 289k | 290k | +0.2% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 297k | 290k | −2.5% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 294k | 290k | −1.3% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 293k | 290k | −1.1% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2015–2020 | 20 years | 4.24k | 4.35k | +2.6% |
| UN 2000 | 2015–2020 | 18 years | 4.4k | 4.35k | −1% |
| UN 2002 | 2015–2020 | 16 years | 4.4k | 4.35k | −1.1% |
| UN 2004 | 2015–2020 | 14 years | 4.39k | 4.35k | −0.9% |
| UN 2006 | 2015–2020 | 12 years | 4.11k | 4.35k | +6% |
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 4.13k | 4.35k | +5.4% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 4.15k | 4.35k | +4.8% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 4.07k | 4.35k | +7.1% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 4.04k | 4.35k | +7.6% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 4.32k | 4.35k | +0.9% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 4.08k | 4.13k | +1.4% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2015–2020 | 20 years | 2.10 | 2.05 | −2.3% |
| UN 2000 | 2015–2020 | 18 years | 2.10 | 2.05 | −2.3% |
| UN 2002 | 2015–2020 | 16 years | 2.10 | 2.05 | −2.4% |
| UN 2004 | 2015–2020 | 14 years | 2.10 | 2.05 | −2.4% |
| UN 2006 | 2015–2020 | 12 years | 1.93 | 2.05 | +6.4% |
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 1.94 | 2.05 | +6% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 2.00 | 2.05 | +2.5% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 2.04 | 2.05 | +0.4% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 2.04 | 2.05 | +0.6% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 2.14 | 2.05 | −4.2% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 1.99 | 1.98 | −0.3% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
4.13k births per year latest value, 2023
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Total fertility rate
1.98 children per woman latest value, 2023
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
81.3 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
76.3 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
33.9 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
30.5 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
105.9 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
0.49k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
17.2 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).
Digitalisation
Internet users
82 % of population latest value, 2017
Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.
Mobile cellular subscriptions
91.7 per 100 people latest value, 2022
Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.
Fixed broadband subscriptions
19.4 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2022
Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.
Society
Urban population
68.2 % of population latest value, 2025
Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).
Women with upper secondary education
62.1 % of women 25+ latest value, 2019
Share of women aged 25+ who completed at least upper secondary education (UNESCO).
Life expectancy at birth
78.9 years latest value, 2024
Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).