Population
14.2k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Cook Islands
All indicators of the Macroscope base for Cook Islands, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 6.79 in 1950 → 2.05 in 2023 (−70%). Peak: 7.27 in 1961; the latest value is 72% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2021. The trend broke around 1965 and 1978: +0.03 → −0.22 → −0.06 a year.
- Births: 0.66k in 1950 → 0.18k in 2023 (−73%). Peak: 0.84k in 1962; the latest value is 79% lower. The trend broke around 1966 and 1976: +0.01k → −0.03k → −0.01k a year.
- Population: 14.7k in 1950 → 14.2k in 2023 (−3%). Peak: 20.9k in 1971; the latest value is 32% lower. The trend broke around 1972 and 1978: +0.27k → −0.56k → −0.04k a year.
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1966–1976: 6.95 → 4.77. Over the same years: births 0.8k → 0.52k; population 19k → 18.3k.
- Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.29 → 2.05; births 0.3k → 0.18k; population 17.6k → 14.2k.
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −7.3%.
- The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.05, 2023) only around 2033: reality is 10 years ahead of it.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.78 (−13% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.68 (−18% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.18.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −35%.
- The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (0.18k, 2023) only around 2080: reality is 57 years ahead of it.
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.11k (−38% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.07k (−61% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.02k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −28%.
- The UN 2004 projection expected today's level (14.2k, 2023) only around 2038: reality is 15 years ahead of it.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 9.34k (−34% vs 2023), 2100 — 7.9k (−44% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 5.18k.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2023 | 25 years | 23.3k | 14.2k | −39% |
| UN 2000 | 2023 | 23 years | 22.7k | 14.2k | −37.5% |
| UN 2002 | 2023 | 21 years | 18.4k | 14.2k | −22.7% |
| UN 2004 | 2023 | 19 years | 16.6k | 14.2k | −14.5% |
| UN 2006 | 2023 | 17 years | 11.4k | 14.2k | +24.9% |
| UN 2008 | 2023 | 15 years | 21.3k | 14.2k | −33.1% |
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 21.6k | 14.2k | −34.1% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 21.6k | 14.2k | −34.1% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 21.8k | 14.2k | −34.8% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 17.6k | 14.2k | −19.3% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 17.6k | 14.2k | −19.1% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 17k | 14.2k | −16.6% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 0.27k | 0.18k | −34.6% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 2.21 | 2.05 | −7.3% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
0.18k births per year latest value, 2023
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Total fertility rate
2.05 children per woman latest value, 2023
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
79 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
71.9 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
35.1 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
29.1 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
106 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
−0.56k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
19.4 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).