Population
10.4M persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Papua New Guinea
All indicators of the Macroscope base for Papua New Guinea, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 5.71 in 1950 → 3.10 in 2023 (−46%). Peak: 6.26 in 1969; the latest value is 50% lower. The trend broke around 1967 and 1973: +0.04 → −0.01 → −0.06 a year.
- Births: 70.9k in 1950 → 255k in 2023 (×3.6). The trend broke around 1990 and 2011: +1.68k → +4.83k → +1.41k a year.
- Population: 1.54M in 1950 → 10.4M in 2023 (×6.7). The trend broke around 1988: change sped up (+56.7k → +154k a year).
- Internet: 0% in 1990 → 18.8% in 2024 (+19 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2017. Fastest growth in 2012–2017: 3.5% → 11.2%.
- Urban share: 3.5% in 1960 → 15.8% in 2025 (+12 pp). The trend broke around 1977 and 2016: +0.68 → −0.03 → +0.28 a year.
- GDP per person (PPP): 3,165 PPP dollars in 1990 → 4,456 PPP dollars in 2025 (+41%). Low: 3,047 PPP dollars in 2004; +46% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2002: +141 → −204 → +66 a year.
- GDP growth: on average 1.6% in the 1980s, 4.7% in the 1990s, 2.8% in the 2000s, 5.3% in the 2010s, 1.9% in the 2020s. Lowest: −6.3% in 1997; highest: 13.8% in 1992.
- Inflation: on average 6.3% in the 1980s, 8.7% in the 1990s, 7.6% in the 2000s, 5.1% in the 2010s, 3.6% in the 2020s. Lowest: 0.6% in 2024; highest: 17.3% in 1995.
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1985–1995: 5.47 → 4.78. Over the same years: births 131k → 163k; population 3.48M → 4.64M; internet 0% (1996); urban share 14.2% → 14.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,009 PPP dollars (1995); GDP growth 3.6% → −3.4%; inflation 3.7% → 17.3%.
- Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.68 → 3.10; births 244k → 255k; population 8.3M → 10.4M; internet 5.1% → 18.6%; urban share 13.1% → 15.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,616 PPP dollars → 4,206 PPP dollars; GDP growth 3.8% → 3.8%; inflation 5% → 2.3%.
How the indicators relate
- Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.87); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.19). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
- Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.54); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.48).
- Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.41); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.29).
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap 0%.
- The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.10) already around 2015: reality is 8 years behind it.
- The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (3.10, 2023) only around 2031: reality is 8 years ahead of it.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.37 (−24% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.88 (−39% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.38.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +17%.
- The UN 2010 projection did not expect today's level (255k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).
- The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (255k, 2023) only around 2029: reality is 6 years ahead of it.
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 269k (+5% vs 2023), 2100 — 229k (−10% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 104k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 12; median gap +17%.
- The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (10.4M, 2023) before its horizon ended (2030).
- The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (10.4M, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 14.9M (+43% vs 2023), 2100 — 18.6M (+79% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 12.7M.
- GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (34 editions, 2007–2023). On average the outcome was 0.9 pp below the forecast; below it in 62% of cases; typical error ±3.5 pp. The biggest miss was for 2015: IMF, April 2014 expected 21.6%, the outcome was 6.6%.
- GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2025 — 5.6%, 2027 — 3.8%, 2031 — 3.1%.
- Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 0.4 pp below the forecast; below it in 50% of cases; typical error ±1.9 pp. The biggest miss was for 2008: IMF, April 2007 expected 4%, the outcome was 10.8%.
- Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 5%, 2028 — 4.5%, 2031 — 4.5%.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2023 | 25 years | 7.29M | 10.4M | +42.6% |
| UN 2000 | 2023 | 23 years | 7.74M | 10.4M | +34.2% |
| UN 2002 | 2023 | 21 years | 8.18M | 10.4M | +27% |
| UN 2004 | 2023 | 19 years | 7.96M | 10.4M | +30.5% |
| UN 2006 | 2023 | 17 years | 8.31M | 10.4M | +25% |
| UN 2008 | 2023 | 15 years | 8.95M | 10.4M | +16.1% |
| UN 2010 | 2023 | 13 years | 8.97M | 10.4M | +15.8% |
| UN 2012 | 2023 | 11 years | 8.9M | 10.4M | +16.7% |
| UN 2015 | 2023 | 8 years | 8.9M | 10.4M | +16.7% |
| UN 2017 | 2023 | 6 years | 9.27M | 10.4M | +12.1% |
| UN 2019 | 2023 | 4 years | 9.47M | 10.4M | +9.8% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 10.3M | 10.4M | +0.6% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2015–2020 | 20 years | 152k | 252k | +65.9% |
| UN 2000 | 2015–2020 | 18 years | 189k | 252k | +33.6% |
| UN 2002 | 2015–2020 | 16 years | 180k | 252k | +39.9% |
| UN 2004 | 2015–2020 | 14 years | 179k | 252k | +40.5% |
| UN 2006 | 2015–2020 | 12 years | 191k | 252k | +31.7% |
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 216k | 252k | +16.8% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 219k | 252k | +15.3% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 220k | 252k | +14.8% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 220k | 252k | +14.8% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 226k | 252k | +11.3% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 254k | 255k | +0.6% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 1998
- UN 2000
- UN 2002
- UN 2004
- UN 2006
- UN 2008
- UN 2010
- UN 2012
- UN 2015
- UN 2017
- UN 2019
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 1998 | 2015–2020 | 20 years | 2.85 | 3.41 | +19.6% |
| UN 2000 | 2015–2020 | 18 years | 3.49 | 3.41 | −2.3% |
| UN 2002 | 2015–2020 | 16 years | 2.88 | 3.41 | +18.3% |
| UN 2004 | 2015–2020 | 14 years | 2.93 | 3.41 | +16.6% |
| UN 2006 | 2015–2020 | 12 years | 3.03 | 3.41 | +12.5% |
| UN 2008 | 2015–2020 | 10 years | 3.37 | 3.41 | +1.3% |
| UN 2010 | 2015–2020 | 8 years | 3.53 | 3.41 | −3.4% |
| UN 2012 | 2015–2020 | 6 years | 3.55 | 3.41 | −4% |
| UN 2015 | 2015–2020 | 2 years | 3.58 | 3.41 | −4.9% |
| UN 2017 | 2015–2020 | 0 years | 3.59 | 3.41 | −5% |
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 3.10 | 3.10 | 0% |
IMF forecasts vs actual
Solid line: actual values from the latest IMF edition (data get revised, so we use the newest). Dashed: April editions, current year and five years ahead. The table covers next-year forecasts from all editions: mean error shows bias, mean absolute error shows accuracy.
Real GDP growth
% per year
- Actual (IMF)
- WEO, April editions
| Indicator | Forecasts | Mean error | Mean absolute error | Actual below forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 34 | −0.9 pp | 3.5 pp | 62% |
| Inflation | 36 | −0.4 pp | 1.9 pp | 50% |
| Government gross debt | 21 | +1.7 pp | 3.7 pp | 33% |
All indicators
Demography
Births
255k births per year latest value, 2023
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Total fertility rate
3.10 children per woman latest value, 2023
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
69.1 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
63.7 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
22.3 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
29.3 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
107.7 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Net migration
−0.79k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection).
Old-age dependency
6 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).
Digitalisation
Internet users
18.8 % of population latest value, 2024
Share of individuals who used the Internet in the last three months from any device. ITU data.
Mobile cellular subscriptions
38.8 per 100 people latest value, 2024
Active mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people; can exceed 100 when people have several SIM cards. ITU data.
Fixed broadband subscriptions
0.2 subscriptions per 100 people latest value, 2024
Fixed subscriptions to high-speed Internet (256 kbit/s or more) per 100 people. ITU data.
Economy
GDP per capita, PPP
4,456 constant 2021 international $ latest value, 2025
Gross domestic product per person at purchasing power parity, constant 2021 international dollars (World Bank, ICP).
Real GDP growth
3.9 % per year latest value, 2024
Annual change of GDP at constant prices. Actual values and forecasts from IMF WEO editions.
Inflation
4.4 % per year, average latest value, 2025
Change of the annual average consumer price index (IMF WEO).
Government gross debt
52.1 % of GDP latest value, 2025
General government gross debt, percent of GDP (IMF WEO).
GDP per capita, US dollars
2,453 current US dollars latest value, 2024
GDP per person in current US dollars at market exchange rates (IMF WEO).
Society
Urban population
15.8 % of population latest value, 2025
Share of people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices (World Bank, from UN World Urbanization Prospects).
Tertiary enrolment, women
1.4 % gross latest value, 1999
Women enrolled in tertiary education as a share of women in the five-year age group after secondary school; can exceed 100 (UNESCO).
Women with upper secondary education
14.6 % of women 25+ latest value, 2022
Share of women aged 25+ who completed at least upper secondary education (UNESCO).
Life expectancy at birth
66.3 years latest value, 2024
Life expectancy at birth, both sexes (World Bank, from UN and national statistics).