Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
Fertility (TFR): 5.64 in 1950 → 1.95 in 2023 (−65%). Peak: 6.79 in 1962; the latest value is 71% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2011. The trend broke around 1964 and 1973: +0.08 → −0.5 → −0.01 a year.
Births: 0.96k in 1950 → 0.79k in 2023 (−18%). Peak: 1.62k in 1964; the latest value is 51% lower. The trend broke around 1965 and 1971: +0.05k → −0.1k → 0k a year.
Population: 23.2k in 1950 → 55.9k in 2023 (+141%). The trend broke around 1972 and 1992: +1.19k → +0.46k → 0k a year.
Internet: 0% in 1990 → 69.5% in 2017 (+69 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1998, above 50% since 2003. Fastest growth in 1998–2003: 14.7% → 54.5%.
Urban share: 58.3% in 1960 → 88.6% in 2025 (+30 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1978. The trend broke around 1966: change slowed down (+2.2 → +0.38 a year).
GDP per person (PPP): 38,138 PPP dollars in 1990 → 71,038 PPP dollars in 2023 (+86%). Low: 34,578 PPP dollars in 1993; +105% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2009: −126 → +1,807 → +785 a year.
What changed at the same time
The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1964–1974: 6.65 → 2.45. Over the same years: births 1.62k → 0.86k; population 37.2k → 48.6k; urban share 67.1% → 74.1%; no data for the others in those years.
Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.01 → 1.95; births 0.82k → 0.79k; population 56.5k → 55.9k; internet 65.8% (2013); urban share 85.4% → 88.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 61,660 PPP dollars → 71,038 PPP dollars.
How the indicators relate
Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2017, 25 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.81); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.12). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.11). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = −0.39).
Forecasts vs actual
Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +0.3%.
Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.80 (−8% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.73 (−11% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.23.
Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +1%.
The UN 2022 projection expected this level (0.79k) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.
Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.58k (−26% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.35k (−56% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.12k.
Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −2%.
Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 49.9k (−11% vs 2023), 2100 — 37.2k (−33% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 22.9k.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates to 2023, then national statistics where comparable with the UN. Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
Actual
UN 1998
UN 2000
UN 2002
UN 2004
UN 2006
UN 2008
UN 2010
UN 2012
UN 2015
UN 2017
UN 2019
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 1998
2023
25 years
59.3k
55.9k
−5.6%
UN 2000
2023
23 years
58.5k
55.9k
−4.4%
UN 2002
2023
21 years
57.8k
55.9k
−3.3%
UN 2004
2023
19 years
59.7k
55.9k
−6.3%
UN 2006
2023
17 years
63.4k
55.9k
−11.8%
UN 2008
2023
15 years
56.8k
55.9k
−1.5%
UN 2010
2023
13 years
56.5k
55.9k
−1%
UN 2012
2023
11 years
56.5k
55.9k
−1%
UN 2015
2023
8 years
56.7k
55.9k
−1.3%
UN 2017
2023
6 years
57.1k
55.9k
−2.1%
UN 2019
2023
4 years
57.1k
55.9k
−2%
UN 2022
2023
1 year
56.6k
55.9k
−1.3%
Births
births per year
Actual
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 2022
2023
1 year
0.78k
0.79k
+1%
Total fertility rate
children per woman
Actual
UN 2022
UN 2024, medium
Release
Target period
Horizon
Expected
Actual
Actual vs expected
UN 2022
2023
1 year
1.95
1.95
+0.3%
All indicators
Demography
Population
55.9k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.