Births and fertility are falling in almost every country, and official projections in ageing countries have repeatedly turned out too optimistic. This page collects the numbers, forecast-vs-actual checks and sources. Use the calculator for your own scenarios.
UN projection of 2024: in 37 of 47 countries that already report 2024–2025 data, births are below the medium variant; in 11, below the lower bound of the 95% interval.
Japan: 709k births in 2024 (including children of foreign nationals). Even the latest official projection (IPSS 2023, medium) expected this level only in 2042, 18 years later. An earlier projection (IPSS 2002, medium) expected it in 2045.
Taiwan: 108k births in 2025. Even the latest official projection (NDC 2024, medium) expected this level only in 2036, 11 years later. An earlier projection (NDC 2016, medium) expected it in 2057.
China: 7.92M births in 2025. Even the latest official projection (UN WPP 2024, medium) expected this level only in 2050, 25 years later. An earlier projection (UN WPP 2022, medium) expected it in 2054.
United States: 1.60 children per woman in 2024. The SSA 2015 projection assumed 2.04 for that year, a gap of −22%.
South Korea: 0.80 children per woman in 2025. Projections made before 2020 expected 1.00–1.38 for 2025, while the 2021 and 2023 projections turned out lower than reality: fertility rose slightly in 2024–2025. Errors go both ways.
World: 67% of people live in countries with fertility below replacement (2.1), 32% below 1.5. World population is still growing: the UN expects a peak of about 10.3B in 2084.
World births
millions per year; UN estimates 1950–2023 and projection variants to 2100
UN estimates
UN medium variant
UN low variant
UN 95% interval
Forecasts vs reality
For each case: the archive of official projections and the actual data. The table shows what each projection expected for the latest actual year, what happened, and when the projection expected today's level.
IPSS 2002, medium
IPSS 2006, medium
IPSS 2012, medium
IPSS 2017, medium
IPSS 2023, medium
Actual (MHLW)
Japan: births — five generations of official projections
IPSS medium variants 2002–2023 vs actual (all births in Japan incl. foreigners). The 2006 projection ran below actual for years; since 2022 reality is below every projection.
Each new projection started from the current level and assumed a rise. In 2025 the actual was 1.14 vs 1.27 (medium) and 1.12 (low) in the 2023 projection.
South Korea: births — Statistics Korea projections vs actual
The 2011 projection expected 449k births in 2023; actual was 230k. The 2023 projection was too low instead: 218k for 2025 vs 254k actual. Projected births are July–June, actual are calendar years.
2025 births were 107.8k: 40% below the 2016 projection and 17% below the one published in 2024. The 100k mark was expected in 2054 by the 2020–2022 editions; the new edition says 2026.
China: the promised baby boom after the one-child policy
Officials expected 17–19 million births a year in 2016–2020 and a TFR of 1.8 by 2020. Actual: 12 million in 2020 and 7.92 million in 2025; the population peak expected around 2030 came in 2021.
UN revisions 2010–2019 expected India to fall below replacement in 2025–2035. The SRS shows 2.0 already in 2020. Values for 2010–2019 are five-year averages.
World: how the UN revised its population projection
World population projected for 2050 and 2100 in each UN revision. Projections rose until 2015 and have fallen since: 11.2 bn → 10.2 bn for 2100.
UN revision
Projection for 2100
Projection for 2050
2002
9.06 bn
8.92 bn
2004
—
9.08 bn
2006
—
9.19 bn
2008
—
9.10 bn
2010
10.10 bn
9.30 bn
2012
10.85 bn
9.55 bn
2015
11.21 bn
9.73 bn
2017
11.18 bn
9.77 bn
2019
10.88 bn
9.70 bn
2022
10.35 bn
9.70 bn
2024
10.18 bn
9.66 bn
SSA 2010
SSA 2015
SSA 2020
SSA 2024
SSA 2026
Actual (CDC)
USA: fertility in Social Security reports vs actual
Social Security trustees kept long-run fertility at 2.0 until the 2023 report; the 2015 report expected 2.04 in 2024 — actual 1.60. Only in 2026 was it cut to 1.75.
The 2012 projection expected 4.41 million births in 2024; actual 3.63 million. The 2060 population projection fell from 420 million (2012) to 364 million (2023).
Australia: fertility in Treasury Intergenerational Reports
The 2010 and 2015 reports assumed 1.9; actual 1.48. The long-run assumption fell from 1.62 to 1.34 only in the 2026 report. Financial years, plotted at the end year.
Finland: births — Statistics Finland projections vs actual
Each projection froze the latest fertility rate. The 2012 projection expected 60.8k births in 2024; there were 43.7k. Births are rising slightly in 2025–2026.
Russia: fertility — Rosstat projections, targets and actual
Targets: 1.87 by 2020, then 1.7 by 2024; actual in 2024 was 1.40. New targets: 1.6 by 2030 and 1.8 by 2036. Since spring 2025 Rosstat has not published monthly birth data.
Medium variant of the UN projection published in July 2024 versus births reported by national statistics.
In 37 of 47 countries with data for the latest year, reality is below the UN medium variant; in 11, below the lower 95% bound.
Country
Year
UN (medium)
Actual
Gap
Below 95% interval?
Singapore
2025
49.8k
29.9k
−40%
yes
Colombia
2025
693k
442k
−36%
yes
Romania
2025*
179k
134k
−25%
yes
Tunisia
2024
164k
126k
−23%
yes
Thailand
2024
582k
462k
−21%
yes
Hong Kong
2025
39k
31.1k
−20%
no
Lithuania
2025
22.1k
17.6k
−20%
yes
Poland
2025
297k
238k
−20%
yes
Egypt
2024
2.44M
1.97M
−19%
yes
Argentina
2024
507k
413k
−18%
yes
Bulgaria
2025
60.4k
50.2k
−17%
yes
Kazakhstan
2025
395k
335k
−15%
no
Turkey
2025
1.05M
895k
−15%
no
Taiwan
2025
125k
108k
−14%
no
Hungary
2025*
84.3k
73.3k
−13%
yes
Belarus
2025
62.3k
54.3k
−13%
no
Czechia
2025*
86.9k
77.6k
−11%
no
Chile
2024*
172k
154k
−10%
no
Costa Rica
2025*
50.6k
45.4k
−10%
no
Uruguay
2024
33.2k
29.9k
−10%
no
China
2025
8.71M
7.92M
−9%
no
Germany
2025
708k
654k
−8%
no
Brazil
2024
2.57M
2.38M
−8%
no
Italy
2025*
383k
355k
−7%
no
European Union (27)
2025*
3.69M
3.46M
−6%
no
Puerto Rico
2025*
19.1k
18k
−6%
no
Malaysia
2024
440k
415k
−6%
no
Japan
2024
751k
709k
−6%
no
Australia
2025*
304k
290k
−5%
no
United Kingdom
2025
680k
650k
−4%
no
Switzerland
2025
81.8k
78.2k
−4%
no
Netherlands
2025
174k
167k
−4%
no
Greece
2025*
68.2k
65.4k
−4%
no
Russia
2024*
1.27M
1.22M
−4%
no
Spain
2025*
330k
321k
−3%
no
United States
2025*
3.66M
3.61M
−2%
no
New Zealand
2025*
58.5k
57.7k
−1%
no
Sweden
2025
97k
97.5k
+1%
no
Austria
2025
75.4k
76.1k
+1%
no
France
2025
635k
644k
+1%
no
Portugal
2025
85.7k
87.8k
+2%
no
Canada
2025*
361k
373k
+3%
no
Ireland
2025*
52.6k
54.3k
+3%
no
South Korea
2025
246k
254k
+3%
no
Finland
2025
43.9k
45.8k
+4%
no
Norway
2025
53k
55.4k
+5%
no
Israel
2025
171k
182k
+6%
no
* provisional data. National definitions can differ from the UN's (e.g. registration year rather than year of birth); series that are not comparable are excluded. CSV
All countries
Fertility comes from national statistics where data for 2023 or later exist, otherwise it is the UN estimate for 2023 (marked "UN"). Peak births: the maximum since 1950. Population outlook: change to 2100 relative to 2024 in the UN projection.
Intermediate ultimate TFR 1.9 (unchanged from 2024 report) but now reached in 2050, 10 years later than in the 2024 report; low-cost 2.1, high-cost 1.6.
1.5995 in 2024 (1,599.5 births per 1,000 women; record low; 2023: 1.621) — CDC/NCHS final 2024 data (NVSR vol. 75 no. 2, 9 June 2026). Provisional 2025: 3,606,400 births (-1%), general fertility rate 53.1 (TFR not given in the provisional report).
IPSS 'Population Projections for Japan (2023 Estimates)': medium-fertility TFR 1.36 in 2070 (high 1.64, low 1.13); base 1.33 (2020 actual); net migration of foreigners 164,000/yr (variants 250,000 and 69,000).
1.15 in 2024 (record low); 1.14 in 2025 (preliminary; births 671,236 vs 686,173 in 2024; natural decrease 918,253).
Statistics Korea 2021 population projection, medium: TFR 0.73 (2023) falling to 0.70 (2024) then recovering to 0.96 (2030), 1.19 (2040) and 1.21 from 2046. (4th projection, 2018: 1.27 in 2023 rising to 1.38.)
0.72 (2023), 0.75 (2024), 0.80 (2025; births 254.3 thousand, +6.7%) — Statistics Korea 'Birth Statistics in 2025', 26 Aug 2026.
RVB 2025: TFR held constant at 1.45 in the long run, with a gradual rise until 2035 (the 15th coordinated population projection had assumed 1.55 long-term); net migration 250,000 a year. Destatis 16th projection: G1 low ~1.30 (1.29 by 2070), G2 moderate 1.45 by end-2030s then 1.47, G3 high 1.55 by 2030 then 1.65 (all assume a slight fall in 2025).
OBR long-term projections are underpinned by the ONS 2021-based population projections (long-term TFR 1.59 by mid-2045). The ONS 2022-based projections (28 Jan 2025) lowered the long-term TFR to 1.45 by 2047 (net migration 340,000/yr). The OBR 2025 report notes the latest ONS projections imply faster ageing 'due to birth rates falling even further below replacement than previously forecast'.
Ultimate TFR 1.35 from 2033 (rising from 1.26 in 2023, partly attributed to the Canada-Wide Early Learning and Child Care plan), down from 1.54 in the 31st report (as at 31 Dec 2021); sensitivity tests 1.05 (higher cost) and 1.65 (lower cost).
Statistics Canada table 13-10-0418-01: 1.27 (2023), 1.26 (2024), 1.26 (2025). (The CPP report cites 1.26 for 2023.)
June 2025 report: TFR 1.8 and net migration +70,000/yr (INSEE 2021 projections). June 2026 report: TFR 1.45 from 2028 and net migration +150,000/yr from 2026 (new INSEE assumptions published April 2026); variants 1.2 and 1.7.
1.61 (2024), 1.56 (2025, provisional; lowest since the end of WWI) — INSEE Bilan démographique 2025 (13 Jan 2026).
China
About 1.0: UN WPP 2024 estimates 1.00 (2023) and 1.01 (2024). NBS (via search-result excerpt of Caixin Global, 19 Jan 2026): 7.92 million births in 2025 (9.54 million in 2024), population -3.39 million.
Pro-natal policies and results
Money and programmes against the fertility path. Rises happen, but no country has returned to 2.1 for good.
Country
TFR path
South Korea
National low-fertility measures since 2006 (programme details not verified here); 2025 pension reform extended the pension 'childbirth credit' to the first child (12 months) and removed the 50-month cap (MOHW, 20 Mar 2025).
Expanded family support since 2010, including sizeable family tax breaks (OECD: tax breaks for families exceed 0.5% of GDP in France, Germany and Hungary).
Family 500+ universal child-raising benefit (from 2016, per task brief), raised to PLN 800 per month per child under 18 regardless of income from 1 January 2024 ('Rodzina 800 plus').
Maternity (family) capital from 1 January 2007 (Federal Law No. 256-FZ of 29.12.2006); initial amount 250,000 rubles; available for first births from 2020; programme extended to 2030; from 1 Feb 2024 639,400 rubles (first child) and 883,000 rubles (second child).
Children's Future Strategy 'Acceleration Plan' adopted December 2023: about JPY 3.6 trillion-scale expansion of child-rearing support (child allowance expansion, universal day-care access, pregnancy benefit, post-birth leave benefits, pension-contribution exemption), partly financed by a new 'child and child-rearing support levy' on all generations and firms.
Where official demographic statistics have become closed or incomplete.
Russia: Monthly demographic statistics withdrawn: Rosstat's monthly report 'Socio-economic situation of Russia' for January–May 2025 appeared without its 'Demographics' section (no population size, natural increase, births, deaths, marriages, divorces or migration); Rosstat also skipped its monthly 'natural population movement' summary for April 2025. The preceding monthly reports had already carried only national aggregates without regional breakdowns (regional operational data on births, deaths, marriages and divorces disappeared first). (Regional monthly breakdowns dropped in spring 2025 (last broadly available update March 2025); whole demographic section absent from the January–May 2025 report published in early July 2025.) ru.themoscowtimes.com
Russia: Detailed final mortality data for 2024 (deaths by sex, age and cause) not released; when researcher Dmitry Kobak requested it in June 2025, Rosstat replied that the government had 'принял решение о временном приостановлении' (decided on a temporary suspension) of access to these previously open data. (June 2025 (detailed cause-of-death tables normally due end of June were not published).) zona.media
Russia: Regional life-expectancy estimates for 2024 (due on Rosstat's site by 20 March 2025) not published; only the national figure was released. (March 2025) zona.media
Russia: Tables with detailed data on deaths and mortality from external causes (by age group) removed from Rosstat's natural-population-movement dataset. (July 2024) istories.media
Belarus: Belstat stopped publishing new mortality data from June 2020; in May 2021 it postponed indefinitely the release of 2020 mortality and migration data (normally published in a natural-movement bulletin); births and deaths data have not been published since 2020. (From June 2020; 2020 mortality/migration release (scheduled 17 May 2021) postponed the day before.) euroradio.fm
Ukraine: State Statistics Service (Derzhstat) has not disclosed official demographic statistics (births, deaths, population) for the war period; its SDG metadata for 2022–2023 states disclosure 'will be resumed after the completion of the deadline for submission of statistical and financial reports' set by the martial-law reporting law. A population estimate was prepared but its publication (format, scope, timing) was still being discussed with the government in 2026. Registered births/deaths are reported by the Ministry of Justice (2024: ~176,600 births, ~495,000 deaths, government-controlled territory). (From 2022 onward) sdg.stat.gov.ua
China: National cremation figures for Q4 2022 omitted from the Ministry of Civil Affairs' quarterly civil-affairs statistics released 9 June 2023 (cremation numbers had been released regularly in the Q4 report since 2007); Zhejiang's provincial Q1-2023 cremation figures (~170,000, about +73% y/y) were posted and later deleted. Per SCMP (search-result excerpt), Chongqing's civil-affairs bureau announced on 9 June 2023 an indefinite suspension of civil-affairs data releases following a Ministry instruction. (June 2023) taiwannews.com.tw
China: A key fertility-rate data series was dropped from the latest China Statistical Yearbook (as reported 27 Oct 2017 by SCMP). (2017) chinafile.com
Turkey: TurkStat (TÜİK) postponed 'Death and Cause of Death Statistics, 2020' (due June 2021) and the 2021 edition (due 23 June 2022, postponed the day before) plus 'Life Tables, 2019–2021'; it also postponed 'International Migration Statistics, 2020' (due 16 July 2021). The 2020 and 2021 death statistics were eventually published in February 2023 (2020 deaths: 507,938, +16.5% y/y). (June 2021 – February 2023) evrensel.net
India: Decennial census due in 2021 postponed (house-listing planned April–September 2020, population enumeration 9–28 February 2021); a new census was notified on 16 June 2025 with reference date 1 March 2027 (1 October 2026 for snow-bound areas). Vital-statistics reports were also delayed: the Civil Registration System and MCCD reports for 2021 were published on 6 May 2025 and the SRS Statistical Report 2021 on 7 May 2025 (2022 editions in June 2025). (Census: postponed from 2020/21 to 2026/27. Vital statistics for 2021: released May 2025.) morungexpress.com
Venezuela: Health Ministry stopped releasing epidemiological figures (incl. infant and maternal mortality) after July 2015; bulletins reappeared on the ministry website in May 2017 after nearly two years of silence. (July 2015 – May 2017) voanews.com
UN "Replacement Migration" (2000)
Migrants needed over 1995–2050 according to the UN calculation of 2000. un.org
Area
Keep population
Keep 15–64
Keep worker-to-retiree ratio
France
1.47M
5.46M
93.8M
Germany
17.8M
25.2M
188M
Italy
12.9M
19.6M
120M
Japan
17.1M
33.5M
553M
Republic of Korea
1.51M
6.43M
5.15B
Russian Federation
28M
35.8M
257M
United Kingdom
2.63M
6.25M
59.8M
United States
6.38M
18M
593M
Europe
100M
161M
1.39B
European Union
47.5M
79.6M
701M
Fertility in origin countries
The countries that send the most migrants are themselves near or below replacement.
Country
Children per woman
Year
India
1.90
2024
Mexico
1.60
2023
Philippines
1.90
2022
Turkey
1.42
2025
Morocco
1.97
2024
Colombia
1.00
2025
Vietnam
1.93
2025
Egypt
2.75
2023 UN
Nigeria
4.80
2024
Pakistan
3.61
2023 UN
Bangladesh
2.30
2022
Kazakhstan
2.57
2025
Uzbekistan
3.50
2023 UN
Ukraine
0.98
2023 UN
China
1.00
2023 UN
What these data do not show
World population is still growing and, depending on the source, will peak between the middle and the end of the century. Specific countries and regions are shrinking fast: East Asia, Southern and Eastern Europe, parts of Latin America. The data do not show global extinction in the coming decades.
They show something else: official fertility projections in ageing countries have been systematically too optimistic, and the small generations already born lock in a shrinking workforce for the next 20–30 years.
Projections do not err in one direction only: Japan's 2006 projection ran below actual for years, and Korea's 2021 and 2023 projections came in below actual fertility in 2024–2025.
Method & sources
What the calculator does
A cohort-component model: population by single year of age (0–100+) and sex is moved forward one year at a time. Births come from women aged 15–49 and the total fertility rate (children per woman) with an age profile centred on the mean age at childbearing. Mortality is set by life expectancy for men and women. In the UN option, migration is calibrated by age from the UN data itself.
Validation. Given the UN assumptions (WPP 2024 medium), the model reproduces the UN projection for every country above one million people: median error 0.3% for population and 0.5% for births in 2050, 0.4–0.5% in 2100; 90% of countries are within 1.7%. Differences between scenarios therefore come from assumptions, not from model error.
Limits: simplified fertility age profile, parametric life tables, standard age profile for custom migration. After 2100 every assumption is frozen; that part is pure arithmetic.
Data
UN World Population Prospects 2024: estimates 1950–2023, projections 2024–2100 (medium and low variants, 95% interval), age structure.
National statistics: actual births and fertility 2015–2025 (provisional 2025 and early-2026 data for some countries).
Archived official projections: IPSS (Japan), Statistics Korea, Taiwan NDC, UN, SSA and the Census Bureau (US), ONS, Eurostat, Destatis, ISTAT, Statistics Finland and Canada, the Australian Treasury, Rosstat.