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12 UN revisions (1998–2022) checked against the facts: median gap −40%. For example, the 2022 revision expected 10.4M for 2025; the outcome was 7.92M.
11 UN revisions (1998–2022) checked against the facts: median gap +35%. For example, the 2017 revision expected 2.46M for 2015–2020; the outcome was 2.58M.
12 UN revisions (1998–2022) checked against the facts: median gap −45%. For example, the 2022 revision expected 294k for 2025; the outcome was 254k.
12 UN revisions (1998–2022) checked against the facts: median gap −45%. For example, the 2022 revision expected 0.91 for 2025; the outcome was 0.80.
11 UN revisions (1998–2022) checked against the facts: median gap +40%. For example, the 2022 revision expected 895k for 2023; the outcome was 906k.
11 UN revisions (1998–2022) checked against the facts: median gap +41%. For example, the 2017 revision expected 2.65 for 2015–2020; the outcome was 3.04.
GDP per person (PPP, 2021 dollars): 1,667 PPP dollars and 1,456 PPP dollars in 1990; 25,067 PPP dollars and 1,067 PPP dollars in 2025.
GDP per person (PPP, 2021 dollars): 1,667 PPP dollars and 1,711 PPP dollars in 1990; 25,067 PPP dollars and 2,481 PPP dollars in 2025.
Years compared in 123 countries where the order is known; median gap 18 years. The opposite order: 2% of countries. Moving together in time does not prove a cause, but it shows what usually comes first.
Countries with GDP per person of 7,994 PPP dollars typically have 70.1 yrs; here it is 54.6 yrs, lower than in any other country once income is taken into account (195 countries, 2024).
Now 1.62 (2023). The 2006 revision of the UN projection did not reach this level anywhere up to its end in 2047.
Now 7.92M (2025). The 2022 revision of the UN projection expected this level only around 2064: reality is 39 years ahead of it.
Now 1.22M (2024). The 2022 revision of the UN projection expected this level only around 2074: reality is 50 years ahead of it.
Years compared in 113 countries where the order is known; median gap 20 years. The opposite order: 11% of countries. Moving together in time does not prove a cause, but it shows what usually comes first.
Now 709k (2024). The 2015 revision of the UN projection did not reach this level anywhere up to its end in 2097.
Now 1.84M (2023). The 2006 revision of the UN projection did not reach this level anywhere up to its end in 2047.
Now 1.92 (2023). The 2022 revision of the UN projection expected this level only around 2083: reality is 60 years ahead of it.
158 countries: the latest fertility against the median gap of 1998–2022 UN projections (Spearman 0.64). Below 1.5 children per woman the median gap is −15%; above 3, +5%. Errors go both ways, but not evenly.
GDP per person (PPP, 2021 dollars): 2,468 PPP dollars and 2,404 PPP dollars in 1990; 15,457 PPP dollars and 1,641 PPP dollars in 2025.
GDP per person (PPP, 2021 dollars): 2,468 PPP dollars and 2,460 PPP dollars in 1990; 15,457 PPP dollars and 1,873 PPP dollars in 2025.
GDP per person (PPP, 2021 dollars): 2,140 PPP dollars and 2,404 PPP dollars in 1990; 10,039 PPP dollars and 1,641 PPP dollars in 2025.
Now 1.17M (2023). The 2019 revision of the UN projection expected this level only around 2061: reality is 38 years ahead of it.
1.97M births against 2.44M in the medium variant of the UN projection published in July 2024, below even the lower bound of its 95% interval (2.03M).
Now 895k (2025). The 2022 revision of the UN projection expected this level only around 2070: reality is 45 years ahead of it.
Now 1.42 (2025). The 2019 revision of the UN projection did not reach this level anywhere up to its end in 2097.
12 UN revisions (1998–2022) checked against the facts: median gap +47%. For example, the 2019 revision expected 344k for 2020–2025; the outcome was 408k.
Now 654k (2025). The 2022 revision of the UN projection expected this level only around 2057: reality is 32 years ahead of it.
GDP per person (PPP, 2021 dollars): 2,140 PPP dollars and 1,968 PPP dollars in 1990; 10,039 PPP dollars and 1,668 PPP dollars in 2025.
462k births against 582k in the medium variant of the UN projection published in July 2024, below even the lower bound of its 95% interval (462k).
Now 462k (2024). The 2022 revision of the UN projection expected this level only around 2056: reality is 32 years ahead of it.
11 UN revisions (1998–2022) checked against the facts: median gap +34%. For example, the 2022 revision expected 960k for 2023; the outcome was 997k.
On average the outcome was 6.2 pp above the IMF's next-year forecast; that happened in 83% of 36 forecasts (2007–2024). The biggest miss was for 2022: IMF, April 2021 expected 11.8%, the outcome was 72.3%.
1968–1978, the fastest decade of the decline. Over the same years: urban share 17.6% → 17.9%; life expectancy 55.2 yrs → 63.1 yrs. There was hardly any internet yet.
12 UN revisions (1998–2022) checked against the facts: median gap +37%. For example, the 2019 revision expected 2.62 for 2020–2025; the outcome was 3.01.
11 UN revisions (1998–2022) checked against the facts: median gap −27%. For example, the 2022 revision expected 1.32 for 2023; the outcome was 1.21.
On average the outcome was 2.7 pp above the IMF's next-year forecast; that happened in 72% of 36 forecasts (2007–2024). The biggest miss was for 2024: IMF, April 2023 expected 15.8%, the outcome was 33.2%.
On average the outcome was 5.1 pp above the IMF's next-year forecast; that happened in 71% of 34 forecasts (2007–2023). The biggest miss was for 2019: IMF, April 2018 expected 11.5%, the outcome was 34.8%.
Now 904k (2023). The 2000 revision of the UN projection did not reach this level anywhere up to its end in 2047.
442k births against 693k in the medium variant of the UN projection published in July 2024, below even the lower bound of its 95% interval (535k).
Now 442k (2025). The 2022 revision of the UN projection expected this level only around 2080: reality is 55 years ahead of it.