{"cases":[{"id":"jpn_births","iso3":"JPN","metric":"births","unit":"persons","title":{"ru":"Япония: рождения — пять поколений официальных прогнозов","en":"Japan: births — five generations of official projections"},"short":{"ru":"Япония · рождения","en":"Japan · births"},"note":{"ru":"IPSS, средние варианты 2002–2023 против факта (все рождения в Японии, включая иностранцев). Прогноз 2006 года долго был ниже факта; с 2022 года реальность ниже всех прогнозов.","en":"IPSS medium variants 2002–2023 vs actual (all births in Japan incl. foreigners). The 2006 projection ran below actual for years; since 2022 reality is below every projection."},"actual":{"label":{"ru":"Факт (Минздрав Японии)","en":"Actual (MHLW)"},"values":{"2000":1202761,"2001":1182499,"2002":1165466,"2003":1134767,"2004":1122344,"2005":1073915,"2006":1104862,"2007":1103247,"2008":1105232,"2009":1082385,"2010":1083616,"2011":1062225,"2012":1050716,"2013":1042814,"2014":1018606,"2015":1020036,"2016":994285,"2017":962816,"2018":935287,"2019":883566,"2020":859632,"2021":830057,"2022":787633,"2023":747002,"2024":709051},"src":"https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/tokusyu/gaikoku26/xls/zuhyou_r08.xlsx"},"proj":[{"label":{"ru":"IPSS 2002, средний","en":"IPSS 2002, medium"},"year":2002,"values":{"2001":1194051,"2002":1182816,"2003":1169511,"2004":1154213,"2005":1136984,"2006":1119141,"2007":1101806,"2008":1085263,"2009":1069494,"2010":1054862,"2011":1040727,"2012":1026805,"2013":1012799,"2014":998908,"2015":984819,"2016":970576,"2017":955856,"2018":941249,"2019":927530,"2020":914127,"2021":901624,"2022":890585,"2023":880379,"2024":871129,"2025":862709,"2026":854712,"2027":847300,"2028":840421,"2029":833895,"2030":827544,"2031":821219,"2032":814765,"2033":808035,"2034":801022,"2035":793706,"2036":786053,"2037":778084,"2038":769837,"2039":761353,"2040":752689,"2041":743899,"2042":735024,"2043":726111,"2044":717204,"2045":708344},"src":"https://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/j/zenkoku2002/db_zenkoku2002/s_tables/pp2002_chu_T1_1_7.xls"},{"label":{"ru":"IPSS 2006, средний","en":"IPSS 2006, medium"},"year":2006,"values":{"2006":1089870,"2007":1022168,"2008":986916,"2009":959950,"2010":934629,"2011":911130,"2012":889574,"2013":869963,"2014":852201,"2015":836110,"2016":821430,"2017":807861,"2018":795266,"2019":783674,"2020":773023,"2021":763265,"2022":754355,"2023":746167,"2024":738569,"2025":731420,"2026":724534,"2027":717682,"2028":710647,"2029":703259,"2030":695367,"2031":686818,"2032":677494,"2033":667371,"2034":656491,"2035":644942,"2036":632851,"2037":620369,"2038":607674,"2039":594946,"2040":582357,"2041":570068,"2042":558216,"2043":546910,"2044":536214,"2045":526157},"src":"https://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/tohkei/suikei07/houkoku/kekka-1/1-8.xls"},{"label":{"ru":"IPSS 2012, средний","en":"IPSS 2012, medium"},"year":2012,"values":{"2011":1059245,"2012":1017985,"2013":1007044,"2014":980195,"2015":952290,"2016":924830,"2017":898964,"2018":875362,"2019":854404,"2020":836262,"2021":820777,"2022":807705,"2023":796832,"2024":787838,"2025":780283,"2026":773672,"2027":767503,"2028":761410,"2029":755207,"2030":748805,"2031":742140,"2032":735143,"2033":727787,"2034":720093,"2035":712086,"2036":703760,"2037":695092,"2038":686060,"2039":676633,"2040":666787,"2041":656518,"2042":645857,"2043":634871,"2044":623649,"2045":612272},"src":"https://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/tohkei/newest04/s-kekka/1-8.xls"},{"label":{"ru":"IPSS 2017, средний","en":"IPSS 2017, medium"},"year":2017,"values":{"2016":992239,"2017":967757,"2018":943784,"2019":920614,"2020":902281,"2021":885753,"2022":871620,"2023":860091,"2024":851041,"2025":844063,"2026":838480,"2027":833582,"2028":828786,"2029":823643,"2030":817890,"2031":811483,"2032":804516,"2033":797138,"2034":789507,"2035":781763,"2036":773982,"2037":766168,"2038":758290,"2039":750307,"2040":742170,"2041":733870,"2042":725432,"2043":716881,"2044":708244,"2045":699528},"src":"https://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/j/zenkoku2017/db_zenkoku2017/s_tables/1-8.xls"},{"label":{"ru":"IPSS 2023, средний","en":"IPSS 2023, medium"},"year":2023,"values":{"2021":831001,"2022":787253,"2023":761895,"2024":779436,"2025":774274,"2026":771044,"2027":771599,"2028":773292,"2029":774060,"2030":773920,"2031":772722,"2032":770288,"2033":766105,"2034":761032,"2035":755152,"2036":748552,"2037":741455,"2038":733985,"2039":726214,"2040":718174,"2041":709836,"2042":701158,"2043":692082,"2044":682539,"2045":672476},"src":"https://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/j/zenkoku2023/db_zenkoku2023/s_tables/1-8.xlsx"}],"xRange":[2000,2045],"direction":-1},{"id":"jpn_tfr","iso3":"JPN","metric":"tfr","unit":"tfr","title":{"ru":"Япония: рождаемость — прогнозы IPSS и факт","en":"Japan: fertility — IPSS projections vs actual"},"short":{"ru":"Япония · СКР","en":"Japan · TFR"},"note":{"ru":"Каждый новый прогноз начинал с текущего значения и закладывал рост. 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По данным SRS Индия дошла до 2,0 уже в 2020-м. Значения 2010–2019 — средние за пятилетия.","en":"UN revisions 2010–2019 expected India to fall below replacement in 2025–2035. The SRS shows 2.0 already in 2020. Values for 2010–2019 are five-year averages."},"actual":{"label":{"ru":"Факт (SRS)","en":"Actual (SRS)"},"values":{"2015":2.27,"2016":2.26,"2017":2.18,"2018":2.15,"2019":2.08,"2020":2.03,"2021":2.0,"2022":2.0,"2023":1.9},"src":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India"},"proj":[{"label":{"ru":"ООН WPP 2010","en":"UN WPP 2010"},"year":2010,"values":{"2017":2.38,"2022":2.26,"2027":2.15,"2032":2.06},"src":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cran/wpp2010/master/data/tfrprojMed.txt"},{"label":{"ru":"ООН WPP 2015","en":"UN WPP 2015"},"year":2015,"values":{"2017":2.3429,"2022":2.231,"2027":2.1353,"2032":2.0567},"src":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cran/wpp2015/master/data/tfrprojMed.txt"},{"label":{"ru":"ООН WPP 2019","en":"UN WPP 2019"},"year":2019,"values":{"2022":2.1393,"2027":2.0535},"src":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PPgp/wpp2019/master/data/tfrprojMed.txt"},{"label":{"ru":"ООН WPP 2022","en":"UN WPP 2022"},"year":2022,"values":{"2016":2.272933,"2017":2.200225,"2018":2.176531,"2019":2.108985,"2020":2.051417,"2021":2.03076,"2022":2.01136,"2023":1.9986,"2024":1.98234,"2025":1.971085,"2030":1.907254},"src":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PPgp/wpp2022/main/data-raw/tfrprojMed.txt"},{"label":{"ru":"ООН WPP 2024","en":"UN WPP 2024"},"year":2024,"values":{"2015":2.289,"2016":2.284,"2017":2.193,"2018":2.184,"2019":2.12,"2020":2.047,"2021":2.014,"2022":1.994,"2023":1.975,"2024":1.962,"2025":1.943,"2030":1.883},"src":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fertility-rate-with-projections.csv?v=1&csvType=filtered&useColumnShortNames=true&country=CHN~IND~NGA~OWID_WRL"}],"xRange":[2010,2040],"direction":-1},{"id":"nga_tfr","iso3":"NGA","metric":"tfr","unit":"tfr","title":{"ru":"Нигерия: рождаемость — прогнозы ООН и обследования","en":"Nigeria: fertility — UN projections vs surveys"},"short":{"ru":"Нигерия · СКР","en":"Nigeria · TFR"},"note":{"ru":"Даже в Африке рождаемость падала быстрее, чем ждали выпуски ООН 2012–2019 годов; выпуск 2024 года, наоборот, оказался ниже обследования 2023–2024.","en":"Even in Africa fertility fell faster than the 2012–2019 UN revisions expected; the 2024 revision went below the 2023–24 survey instead."},"actual":{"label":{"ru":"Обследования DHS/MIS","en":"DHS/MIS surveys"},"values":{"2008":5.7,"2013":5.5,"2015":5.0,"2018":5.3,"2021":4.8,"2023":4.8},"src":"https://api.dhsprogram.com/rest/dhs/data?countryIds=NG&indicatorIds=FE_FRTR_W_TFR&f=json"},"proj":[{"label":{"ru":"ООН WPP 2012","en":"UN WPP 2012"},"year":2012,"values":{"2012":6.005,"2017":5.732,"2022":5.425,"2027":5.098},"src":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cran/wpp2012/master/data/tfrprojMed.txt"},{"label":{"ru":"ООН WPP 2015","en":"UN WPP 2015"},"year":2015,"values":{"2017":5.4082,"2022":5.0695,"2027":4.7374},"src":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cran/wpp2015/master/data/tfrprojMed.txt"},{"label":{"ru":"ООН WPP 2019","en":"UN WPP 2019"},"year":2019,"values":{"2022":5.0764,"2027":4.7421},"src":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PPgp/wpp2019/master/data/tfrprojMed.txt"},{"label":{"ru":"ООН WPP 2022","en":"UN WPP 2022"},"year":2022,"values":{"2016":5.583652,"2017":5.523295,"2018":5.446794,"2019":5.379334,"2020":5.309487,"2021":5.237423,"2022":5.14282,"2023":5.062877,"2024":4.993016,"2025":4.898865,"2026":4.810804,"2027":4.723991,"2030":4.450755},"src":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PPgp/wpp2022/main/data-raw/tfrprojMed.txt"},{"label":{"ru":"ООН WPP 2024","en":"UN WPP 2024"},"year":2024,"values":{"2015":5.50315,"2016":5.34252,"2017":5.18189,"2018":5.02126,"2019":4.86063,"2020":4.7,"2021":4.636208,"2022":4.552465,"2023":4.481699,"2024":4.381814,"2025":4.296521,"2030":3.821656},"src":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PPgp/wpp2024/main/data-raw/tfr.txt"}],"xRange":[2010,2040],"direction":-1},{"id":"world_rev","kind":"revisions","iso3":"WLD","unit":"bn","title":{"ru":"Мир: как ООН пересматривала прогноз населения","en":"World: how the UN revised its population projection"},"short":{"ru":"Мир · выпуски ООН","en":"World · UN revisions"},"note":{"ru":"Прогноз населения мира на 2050 и 2100 годы в каждом выпуске ООН. До 2015 года прогноз повышали, с 2015-го — снижают: 11,2 млрд → 10,2 млрд на 2100 год.","en":"World population projected for 2050 and 2100 in each UN revision. Projections rose until 2015 and have fallen since: 11.2 bn → 10.2 bn for 2100."},"lines":[{"label":{"ru":"Прогноз на 2100 год","en":"Projection for 2100"},"values":{"2002":9.064,"2010":10.1,"2012":10.854,"2015":11.213,"2017":11.184,"2019":10.875,"2022":10.349,"2024":10.18}},{"label":{"ru":"Прогноз на 2050 год","en":"Projection for 2050"},"values":{"2002":8.919,"2004":9.076,"2006":9.191,"2008":9.1,"2010":9.3,"2012":9.551,"2015":9.725,"2017":9.772,"2019":9.7,"2022":9.7,"2024":9.664}}],"xRange":[2000,2026],"actual":{"label":"","values":{}},"proj":[]},{"id":"usa_tfr","iso3":"USA","metric":"tfr","unit":"tfr","title":{"ru":"США: рождаемость в расчётах Social Security и факт","en":"USA: fertility in Social Security reports vs actual"},"short":{"ru":"США · пенсии","en":"USA · pensions"},"note":{"ru":"Попечители Social Security держали долгосрочную рождаемость 2,0 до отчёта 2023 года; отчёт 2015-го ждал 2,04 в 2024-м — вышло 1,60. Только в 2026 году допущение снижено до 1,75.","en":"Social Security trustees kept long-run fertility at 2.0 until the 2023 report; the 2015 report expected 2.04 in 2024 — actual 1.60. Only in 2026 was it cut to 1.75."},"actual":{"label":{"ru":"Факт (CDC)","en":"Actual (CDC)"},"values":{"2007":2.12,"2008":2.072,"2009":2.002,"2010":1.931,"2011":1.8945,"2012":1.8805,"2013":1.8575,"2014":1.8625,"2015":1.8435,"2016":1.8205,"2017":1.7655,"2018":1.7295,"2019":1.706,"2020":1.6415,"2021":1.664,"2022":1.6565,"2023":1.621,"2024":1.5995},"src":"https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr75/nvsr75-02.pdf"},"proj":[{"label":{"ru":"SSA 2010","en":"SSA 2010"},"year":2010,"values":{"2010":2.08,"2011":2.08,"2012":2.08,"2013":2.07,"2014":2.07,"2015":2.07,"2016":2.06,"2017":2.06,"2018":2.06,"2019":2.05,"2020":2.05,"2021":2.05,"2022":2.04,"2023":2.04,"2024":2.03,"2025":2.03,"2026":2.03,"2027":2.02,"2028":2.02,"2029":2.02,"2030":2.01},"src":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2010/lr5a1.html"},{"label":{"ru":"SSA 2015","en":"SSA 2015"},"year":2015,"values":{"2015":1.91,"2016":1.93,"2017":1.96,"2018":1.99,"2019":2.02,"2020":2.04,"2021":2.05,"2022":2.07,"2023":2.05,"2024":2.04,"2025":2.03,"2026":2.01,"2027":2.0,"2028":2.0,"2029":2.0,"2030":2.0},"src":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2015/lr5a1.html"},{"label":{"ru":"SSA 2020","en":"SSA 2020"},"year":2020,"values":{"2020":1.69,"2021":1.7,"2022":1.73,"2023":1.77,"2024":1.82,"2025":1.87,"2026":1.91,"2027":1.93,"2028":1.94,"2029":1.95,"2030":1.95},"src":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2020/lr_5a1.html"},{"label":{"ru":"SSA 2024","en":"SSA 2024"},"year":2024,"values":{"2024":1.67,"2025":1.7,"2026":1.73,"2027":1.76,"2028":1.79,"2029":1.81,"2030":1.83},"src":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2024/lr5a1.html"},{"label":{"ru":"SSA 2026","en":"SSA 2026"},"year":2026,"values":{"2026":1.59,"2027":1.6,"2028":1.6,"2029":1.61,"2030":1.61,"2035":1.66,"2040":1.72,"2045":1.75,"2050":1.75},"src":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2026/lr5a1.html"}],"xRange":[2007,2050],"direction":-1},{"id":"usa_births","iso3":"USA","metric":"births","unit":"persons","title":{"ru":"США: рождения — прогнозы Бюро переписи и факт","en":"USA: births — Census Bureau projections vs actual"},"short":{"ru":"США · рождения","en":"USA · births"},"note":{"ru":"Прогноз 2012 года ждал 4,41 млн рождений в 2024 году — вышло 3,63 млн. Прогноз населения США на 2060 год снижен с 420 млн (2012) до 364 млн (2023).","en":"The 2012 projection expected 4.41 million births in 2024; actual 3.63 million. The 2060 population projection fell from 420 million (2012) to 364 million (2023)."},"actual":{"label":{"ru":"Факт (CDC)","en":"Actual (CDC)"},"values":{"2007":4316233,"2008":4247694,"2009":4130665,"2010":3999386,"2011":3953590,"2012":3952841,"2013":3932181,"2014":3988076,"2015":3978497,"2016":3945875,"2017":3855500,"2018":3791712,"2019":3747540,"2020":3613647,"2021":3664292,"2022":3667758,"2023":3596017,"2024":3628934,"2025":3606400},"src":"https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr75/nvsr75-02.pdf"},"proj":[{"label":{"ru":"Бюро переписи 2012","en":"Census Bureau 2012"},"year":2012,"values":{"2015":4290000,"2016":4312000,"2017":4333000,"2018":4351000,"2019":4367000,"2020":4380000,"2021":4390000,"2022":4398000,"2023":4404000,"2024":4409000,"2025":4413000,"2026":4416000,"2027":4419000,"2028":4422000,"2029":4426000,"2030":4433000},"src":"https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj/tables/2012/2012-summary-tables/np2012-t1.xls"},{"label":{"ru":"Бюро переписи 2017","en":"Census Bureau 2017"},"year":2017,"values":{"2017":4054000,"2018":4075000,"2019":4095000,"2020":4112000,"2021":4126000,"2022":4137000,"2023":4146000,"2024":4152000,"2025":4156000,"2026":4160000,"2027":4162000,"2028":4163000,"2029":4163000,"2030":4162000},"src":"https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj/tables/2017/2017-summary-tables/np2017-t1.xlsx"},{"label":{"ru":"Бюро переписи 2023","en":"Census Bureau 2023"},"year":2023,"values":{"2023":3627000,"2024":3632000,"2025":3637000,"2026":3641000,"2027":3645000,"2028":3648000,"2029":3651000,"2030":3653000},"src":"https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj/tables/2023/2023-summary-tables/np2023-t1.xlsx"}],"xRange":[2007,2040],"direction":-1},{"id":"gbr_tfr","iso3":"GBR","metric":"tfr","unit":"tfr","title":{"ru":"Великобритания: рождаемость — прогнозы ONS и факт","en":"UK: fertility — ONS projections vs actual"},"short":{"ru":"Британия · СКР","en":"UK · TFR"},"note":{"ru":"Прогноз 2014 года ждал 1,87 в 2024-м — вышло 1,40. Долгосрочное допущение снижено с 1,89 до 1,42.","en":"The 2014-based projection expected 1.87 in 2024; actual 1.40. The long-run assumption fell from 1.89 to 1.42."},"actual":{"label":{"ru":"Факт (ONS)","en":"Actual (ONS)"},"values":{"2008":1.91,"2009":1.89,"2010":1.92,"2011":1.91,"2012":1.91,"2013":1.82,"2014":1.8,"2015":1.78,"2016":1.75,"2017":1.7,"2018":1.63,"2019":1.58,"2020":1.51,"2021":1.54,"2022":1.48,"2023":1.42,"2024":1.4},"src":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/generator?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2024based/0eb622ea&format=csv"},"proj":[{"label":{"ru":"ONS 2012","en":"ONS 2012-based"},"year":2012,"values":{"2013":1.89,"2014":1.89,"2015":1.89,"2016":1.89,"2017":1.89,"2018":1.89,"2019":1.89,"2020":1.89,"2021":1.89,"2022":1.89,"2023":1.89,"2024":1.89,"2025":1.89,"2026":1.89,"2027":1.89,"2028":1.89,"2029":1.89,"2030":1.89,"2031":1.89,"2032":1.89,"2033":1.89,"2034":1.89,"2035":1.89,"2036":1.89,"2037":1.89},"src":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/generator?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/compendium/nationalpopulationprojections/2014-03-28/chapter3fertility2012basednppreferencevolume/15070704&format=csv"},{"label":{"ru":"ONS 2016","en":"ONS 2016-based"},"year":2016,"values":{"2017":1.767,"2018":1.777,"2019":1.776,"2020":1.776,"2021":1.778,"2022":1.782,"2023":1.788,"2024":1.793,"2025":1.798,"2026":1.803,"2027":1.806,"2028":1.809,"2029":1.812,"2030":1.815,"2031":1.818,"2032":1.82,"2033":1.822,"2034":1.824,"2035":1.825,"2036":1.826,"2037":1.828,"2038":1.83,"2039":1.834,"2040":1.837,"2041":1.839},"src":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/generator?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/compendium/nationalpopulationprojections/2016basedprojections/fertilityassumptions/9a5344ab&format=csv"},{"label":{"ru":"ONS 2018","en":"ONS 2018-based"},"year":2018,"values":{"2019":1.657,"2020":1.658,"2021":1.652,"2022":1.648,"2023":1.652,"2024":1.658,"2025":1.665,"2026":1.673,"2027":1.68,"2028":1.687,"2029":1.696,"2030":1.705,"2031":1.713,"2032":1.722,"2033":1.73,"2034":1.738,"2035":1.745,"2036":1.753,"2037":1.76,"2038":1.767,"2039":1.773,"2040":1.777,"2041":1.781,"2042":1.783,"2043":1.784},"src":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/generator?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2018based/5e6dcccc&format=csv"},{"label":{"ru":"ONS 2020","en":"ONS 2020-based"},"year":2020,"values":{"2021":1.53,"2022":1.52,"2023":1.52,"2024":1.53,"2025":1.53,"2026":1.53,"2027":1.53,"2028":1.53,"2029":1.53,"2030":1.53,"2031":1.53,"2032":1.54,"2033":1.54,"2034":1.54,"2035":1.54,"2036":1.54,"2037":1.55,"2038":1.56,"2039":1.56,"2040":1.57,"2041":1.57,"2042":1.58,"2043":1.58,"2044":1.59,"2045":1.59},"src":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/generator?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2022based/0936f3c3&format=csv"},{"label":{"ru":"ONS 2022","en":"ONS 2022-based"},"year":2022,"values":{"2024":1.43,"2025":1.42,"2026":1.42,"2027":1.41,"2028":1.41,"2029":1.41,"2030":1.41,"2031":1.41,"2032":1.41,"2033":1.41,"2034":1.41,"2035":1.41,"2036":1.42,"2037":1.42,"2038":1.42,"2039":1.42,"2040":1.43,"2041":1.43,"2042":1.43,"2043":1.44,"2044":1.44,"2045":1.44,"2046":1.44,"2047":1.45},"src":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/generator?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2024based/aadd28fa&format=csv"},{"label":{"ru":"ONS 2024","en":"ONS 2024-based"},"year":2024,"values":{"2025":1.39,"2026":1.4,"2027":1.39,"2028":1.39,"2029":1.38,"2030":1.38,"2031":1.38,"2032":1.38,"2033":1.38,"2034":1.38,"2035":1.39,"2036":1.39,"2037":1.39,"2038":1.39,"2039":1.39,"2040":1.4,"2041":1.4,"2042":1.4,"2043":1.41,"2044":1.41,"2045":1.41,"2046":1.41,"2047":1.41,"2048":1.42,"2049":1.42},"src":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/generator?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2024based/aadd28fa&format=csv"}],"xRange":[2008,2050],"direction":-1},{"id":"can_tfr","iso3":"CAN","metric":"tfr","unit":"tfr","title":{"ru":"Канада: рождаемость — прогнозы Статистики Канады и факт","en":"Canada: fertility — Statistics Canada projections vs actual"},"short":{"ru":"Канада · СКР","en":"Canada · TFR"},"note":{"ru":"Средний вариант 2014 года — 1,67; факт 1,26 в 2024–2025 годах, ниже даже низкого варианта начиная с 2018-го.","en":"The 2014 medium assumption was 1.67; actual 1.26 in 2024–2025, below even the low scenario since 2018."},"actual":{"label":{"ru":"Факт","en":"Actual"},"values":{"2008":1.7,"2009":1.69,"2010":1.65,"2011":1.63,"2012":1.63,"2013":1.61,"2014":1.61,"2015":1.6,"2016":1.59,"2017":1.55,"2018":1.51,"2019":1.47,"2020":1.41,"2021":1.44,"2022":1.34,"2023":1.27,"2024":1.26,"2025":1.26},"src":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310041801"},"proj":[{"label":{"ru":"StatCan 2014, средний","en":"StatCan 2014, medium"},"year":2014,"values":{"2012":1.62,"2013":1.62,"2014":1.63,"2015":1.64,"2016":1.64,"2017":1.65,"2018":1.65,"2019":1.66,"2020":1.67,"2021":1.67,"2022":1.67,"2023":1.67,"2024":1.67,"2025":1.67,"2026":1.67,"2027":1.67,"2028":1.67,"2029":1.67,"2030":1.67,"2031":1.67},"src":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/2014001/c-g/desc/desc312-eng.htm"},{"label":{"ru":"StatCan 2022, средний","en":"StatCan 2022, medium"},"year":2022,"values":{"2022":1.39,"2025":1.37,"2043":1.59},"src":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2022001-eng.htm"},{"label":{"ru":"StatCan 2024, средний","en":"StatCan 2024, medium"},"year":2024,"values":{"2024":1.31,"2025":1.29,"2026":1.27,"2027":1.25,"2028":1.24,"2029":1.23,"2030":1.23,"2031":1.23,"2032":1.23,"2033":1.23,"2034":1.24,"2035":1.25,"2036":1.26,"2037":1.27,"2038":1.28,"2039":1.29,"2040":1.3,"2041":1.32,"2042":1.33,"2043":1.34,"2044":1.35,"2045":1.36,"2046":1.36,"2047":1.37,"2048":1.37},"src":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2024001-eng.htm"},{"label":{"ru":"StatCan 2026, средний","en":"StatCan 2026, medium"},"year":2026,"values":{"2026":1.27,"2027":1.26,"2028":1.25,"2029":1.24,"2030":1.24,"2031":1.23,"2032":1.23,"2033":1.23,"2034":1.23,"2035":1.24,"2036":1.24,"2037":1.24,"2038":1.25,"2039":1.26,"2040":1.26,"2041":1.27,"2042":1.28,"2043":1.29,"2044":1.29,"2045":1.3,"2046":1.31,"2047":1.31,"2048":1.31,"2049":1.32,"2050":1.32},"src":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/17-20-0003/172000032026002-eng.htm"}],"xRange":[2008,2050],"direction":-1},{"id":"aus_tfr","iso3":"AUS","metric":"tfr","unit":"tfr","title":{"ru":"Австралия: рождаемость в межпоколенческих отчётах Казначейства","en":"Australia: fertility in Treasury Intergenerational Reports"},"short":{"ru":"Австралия · СКР","en":"Australia · TFR"},"note":{"ru":"Отчёты 2010 и 2015 годов закладывали 1,9; факт — 1,48. Долгосрочное допущение снижено с 1,62 до 1,34 только в отчёте 2026 года. Финансовые годы, точка — год окончания.","en":"The 2010 and 2015 reports assumed 1.9; actual 1.48. The long-run assumption fell from 1.62 to 1.34 only in the 2026 report. 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Variants: moderate fertility and migration."},"actual":{"label":{"ru":"Факт (Destatis)","en":"Actual (Destatis)"},"values":{"2008":682514,"2009":665126,"2010":677947,"2011":662685,"2012":673544,"2013":682069,"2014":714927,"2015":737575,"2016":792141,"2017":784901,"2018":787523,"2019":778090,"2020":773144,"2021":795492,"2022":738819,"2023":692989,"2024":677117,"2025":654241},"src":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Geburten/Publikationen/Downloads-Geburten/statistischer-bericht-geburten-5126104257005.xlsx?__blob=publicationFile&v=2"},"proj":[{"label":{"ru":"Destatis 13-й (2015)","en":"Destatis 13th (2015)"},"year":2015,"values":{"2014":685000,"2015":691000,"2016":697000,"2017":702000,"2018":706000,"2019":707000,"2020":707000,"2021":706000,"2022":702000,"2023":698000,"2024":692000,"2025":685000,"2026":676000,"2027":667000,"2028":658000,"2029":648000,"2030":639000,"2031":631000,"2032":623000,"2033":615000,"2034":608000,"2035":601000,"2036":596000,"2037":590000,"2038":586000,"2039":583000,"2040":581000,"2045":579000,"2050":581000},"src":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/bevoelkerung-deutschland-2060-5124202159004.pdf?__blob=publicationFile"},{"label":{"ru":"Destatis 14-й (2019)","en":"Destatis 14th (2019)"},"year":2019,"values":{"2019":791000,"2020":791000,"2021":789000,"2022":785000,"2023":780000,"2024":774000,"2025":767000,"2026":759000,"2027":750000,"2028":741000,"2029":732000,"2030":723000,"2031":715000,"2032":707000,"2033":700000,"2034":693000,"2035":687000,"2036":682000,"2037":678000,"2038":674000,"2039":671000,"2040":669000,"2045":675000,"2050":691000},"src":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/bevoelkerung-deutschland-2060-5124202199014.pdf?__blob=publicationFile"},{"label":{"ru":"Destatis 15-й (2022)","en":"Destatis 15th (2022)"},"year":2022,"values":{"2021":795500,"2022":752400,"2023":763900,"2024":767900,"2025":770600,"2026":772900,"2027":773900,"2028":774100,"2029":773300,"2030":771500,"2031":768600,"2032":764700,"2033":759800,"2034":754500,"2035":749800,"2036":745700,"2037":742200,"2038":739400,"2039":737300,"2040":736300,"2045":743500,"2050":755400},"src":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/statistischer-bericht-bvb-deutschland-2070-5124202219005.xlsx?__blob=publicationFile&v=4"},{"label":{"ru":"Destatis 16-й (2025)","en":"Destatis 16th (2025)"},"year":2025,"values":{"2024":677100,"2025":650000,"2026":639200,"2027":635200,"2028":634400,"2029":638200,"2030":641700,"2031":644300,"2032":645300,"2033":644100,"2034":644900,"2035":646100,"2036":644800,"2037":644200,"2038":644200,"2039":644700,"2040":644700,"2045":647100,"2050":644200},"src":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/statistischer-bericht-bvb-deutschland-2070-5124202249005.xlsx?__blob=publicationFile&v=3"}],"xRange":[2008,2050],"direction":-1},{"id":"rus_tfr","iso3":"RUS","metric":"tfr","unit":"tfr","title":{"ru":"Россия: рождаемость — прогнозы Росстата, цели и факт","en":"Russia: fertility — Rosstat projections, targets and actual"},"short":{"ru":"Россия · СКР","en":"Russia · TFR"},"note":{"ru":"Цель 1,87 к 2020 году, затем 1,7 к 2024-му; факт 2024 года — 1,40. Новые цели — 1,6 к 2030 и 1,8 к 2036 году. С весны 2025 года Росстат не публикует оперативные данные о рождениях.","en":"Targets: 1.87 by 2020, then 1.7 by 2024; actual in 2024 was 1.40. New targets: 1.6 by 2030 and 1.8 by 2036. Since spring 2025 Rosstat has not published monthly birth data."},"actual":{"label":{"ru":"Факт (Росстат)","en":"Actual (Rosstat)"},"values":{"2015":1.762,"2016":1.744,"2017":1.601,"2018":1.556,"2019":1.477,"2020":1.474,"2021":1.47,"2022":1.416,"2023":1.41,"2024":1.4},"src":"https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Ejegodnik_2025.rar"},"proj":[{"label":{"ru":"Росстат 2018, средний","en":"Rosstat 2018, medium"},"year":2018,"values":{"2017":1.608,"2018":1.675,"2019":1.61,"2020":1.6,"2021":1.6,"2022":1.605,"2023":1.615,"2024":1.63,"2025":1.646,"2026":1.661,"2027":1.676,"2028":1.69,"2029":1.704,"2030":1.717},"src":"http://web.archive.org/web/20180404042824/http://www.gks.ru:80/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn6.xls"},{"label":{"ru":"Росстат 2019, средний","en":"Rosstat 2019, medium"},"year":2019,"values":{"2020":1.489,"2021":1.506,"2022":1.489,"2023":1.446,"2024":1.432,"2025":1.415,"2026":1.428,"2027":1.445,"2028":1.463,"2029":1.481,"2030":1.499},"src":"https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/prognoz35.rar"},{"label":{"ru":"Росстат 2023, средний","en":"Rosstat 2023, medium"},"year":2023,"values":{"2023":1.371,"2024":1.321,"2025":1.332,"2026":1.352,"2027":1.374,"2028":1.412,"2029":1.447,"2030":1.473},"src":"https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Progn_6.xls"},{"label":{"ru":"Цель нацпроекта «Демография» (2018)","en":"National project target (2018)"},"year":2018,"values":{"2018":1.6,"2019":1.63,"2020":1.65,"2021":1.66,"2022":1.68,"2023":1.69,"2024":1.7},"src":"http://static.government.ru/media/files/Z4OMjDgCaeohKWaA0psu6lCekd3hwx2m.pdf"},{"label":{"ru":"Цель единого плана (2025)","en":"Unified plan target (2025)"},"year":2025,"values":{"2025":1.443,"2026":1.473,"2027":1.503,"2028":1.533,"2029":1.563,"2030":1.593,"2035":1.8},"src":"http://static.government.ru/media/files/ZsnFICpxWknEXeTfQdmcFHNei2FhcR0A.pdf"}],"xRange":[2015,2036],"direction":-1},{"id":"rus_births","iso3":"RUS","metric":"births","unit":"persons","title":{"ru":"Россия: рождения — прогнозы Росстата и факт","en":"Russia: births — Rosstat projections vs actual"},"short":{"ru":"Россия · рождения","en":"Russia · births"},"note":{"ru":"Последний официальный годовой итог — 2024 год (1,22 млн, предварительно). Данных за 2025 год Росстат не публиковал.","en":"The last official annual total is 2024 (1.22 million, provisional). Rosstat has not published 2025 data."},"actual":{"label":{"ru":"Факт (Росстат)","en":"Actual (Rosstat)"},"values":{"2015":1940579,"2016":1888729,"2017":1690307,"2018":1604344,"2019":1481074,"2020":1436514,"2021":1398253,"2022":1304087,"2023":1264354,"2024":1222408},"src":"https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/demo21_2023.xlsx"},"proj":[{"label":{"ru":"Росстат 2018, средний","en":"Rosstat 2018, medium"},"year":2018,"values":{"2017":1683526,"2018":1715138,"2019":1612425,"2020":1565180,"2021":1526981,"2022":1493931,"2023":1465565,"2024":1442159,"2025":1418600,"2026":1395927,"2027":1379612,"2028":1370477,"2029":1370526,"2030":1370231},"src":"http://web.archive.org/web/20180304162601/http://www.gks.ru:80/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn5.xls"},{"label":{"ru":"Росстат 2019, средний","en":"Rosstat 2019, medium"},"year":2019,"values":{"2020":1433277,"2021":1412831,"2022":1363037,"2023":1291787,"2024":1249607,"2025":1205656,"2026":1189547,"2027":1182167,"2028":1182101,"2029":1186592,"2030":1192088},"src":"https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/prognoz35.rar"},{"label":{"ru":"Росстат 2023, средний","en":"Rosstat 2023, medium"},"year":2023,"values":{"2023":1244500,"2024":1171745,"2025":1153120,"2026":1143108,"2027":1140374,"2028":1155756,"2029":1172102,"2030":1181647},"src":"https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/prognoz45.rar"}],"xRange":[2015,2035],"direction":-1}],"wpp_revisions":[{"revision":"2002","release_date":null,"world_2050":8.919,"world_2100":9.064,"peak_year":2075,"peak_size":9.221,"world_tfr_2020_2025":null,"world_tfr_2045_2050":2.0,"units":"population in billions (medium variant); TFR = live births per woman, 5-year period average","source_url":"https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/files/documents/2020/Jan/un_2002_world_population_to_2300.pdf","additional_source_urls":["https://futuribles.com/en/?p=36366"],"notes":"The standard 2002 Revision projected only to 2050 (headline 8.9 billion in 2050; 8,919 million medium in Table 1 of UN 'World Population to 2300', ST/ESA/SER.A/236, 2004, which is built on the 2002 Revision). world_2100 (9,064 million) and the peak (9.22 billion in 2075) are from that long-range medium scenario, not from the 2002 Revision proper; the scenario then dips to 8.43 billion by 2175 and returns to 8.97 billion by 2300. Fertility: world TFR projected to fall from 2.8 (1995-2000) to 'about 2 children in 2045-2050' ('2.00 children per woman worldwide in 2050'); long-run assumption that every country settles at 1.85 before returning to replacement. Secondary source (Futuribles, J. Damon, 2004): '6.3 billion today to 8.9 billion in 2050'. World TFR for 2020-2025 not found."},{"revision":"2004","release_date":"2005-02-24","world_2050":9.076,"world_2100":null,"peak_year":null,"peak_size":null,"world_tfr_2020_2025":null,"world_tfr_2045_2050":2.05,"units":"population in billions (medium variant); TFR = live births per woman, 5-year period average","source_url":"https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/files/documents/2020/Jan/un_2004_world_population_prospects-2004_revision_volume-iii.pdf","additional_source_urls":["https://news.un.org/en/story/2005/02/129862"],"notes":"WPP 2004 Vol. III Analytical Report (ST/ESA/SER.A/246), key findings: 6.5 billion in July 2005; 9.1 billion in 2050 (Table 1: medium 9,076 million; low 7,680; high 10,646). World TFR 2.65 in 2000-2005, projected 2.05 in 2045-2050 ('slightly over 2 children per woman in 2050'). Projections ran to 2050 only (no 2100, no peak). Release date from UN News story of 24 Feb 2005."},{"revision":"2006","release_date":"2007-03-13","world_2050":9.191,"world_2100":null,"peak_year":null,"peak_size":null,"world_tfr_2020_2025":2.29,"world_tfr_2045_2050":2.02,"units":"population in billions (medium variant); TFR = live births per woman, 5-year period average","source_url":"https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/files/documents/2020/Jan/un_2006_world_population_prospects-2006_revision_volume-iii.pdf","additional_source_urls":["https://press.un.org/en/2007/pop952.doc.htm"],"notes":"WPP 2006 Vol. III (ST/ESA/SER.A/263): Table I.1 world 9,191 million in 2050 (8,011 million in 2025); Table III.1 world TFR 2.65 (2000-2005), 2.29 (2020-2025), 2.02 (2045-2050). Release date / '6.7 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050' from UN press release POP/952 as displayed in search results (the press.un.org page itself did not render). Projections to 2050 only."},{"revision":"2008","release_date":"2009-03-11","world_2050":9.1,"world_2100":null,"peak_year":null,"peak_size":null,"world_tfr_2020_2025":null,"world_tfr_2045_2050":2.02,"units":"population in billions (medium variant); TFR = live births per woman, 5-year period average","source_url":"https://www.scienzainrete.it/files/pressrelease.pdf","additional_source_urls":["https://press.un.org/en/2009/090311_desa.doc.htm","https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3924414/files/wpp2008_highlights.pdf"],"notes":"UN Population Division press release embargoed to 11 March 2009 (copy hosted by scienzainrete.it; UN-hosted copies returned errors/403) with Key Findings: 6.8 billion in July 2009; 9.1 billion in 2050 (medium); TFR 2.56 (2005-2010) -> 2.02 (2045-2050); +0.5/-0.5 child variants give 10.5 / 8.0 billion in 2050. Projections to 2050 only. 2020-2025 world TFR not found."},{"revision":"2010","release_date":"2011-05-03","world_2050":9.3,"world_2100":10.1,"peak_year":null,"peak_size":null,"world_tfr_2020_2025":2.33,"world_tfr_2045_2050":2.17,"units":"population in billions (medium variant); TFR = live births per woman, 5-year period average","source_url":"https://scienceblogs.de/geograffitico/wp-content/blogs.dir/70/files/2012/07/i-57047310629af3be78b95e1b6a3eb0b4-Press_Release_WPP2010.pdf","additional_source_urls":["https://news.un.org/en/story/2011/05/373812","https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cran/wpp2010/master/data/tfrprojMed.txt"],"notes":"First standard revision projecting to 2100. UN press release (3 May 2011; copy hosted by scienceblogs.de): 'close to 7 billion' -> 9.3 billion by mid-century -> 10.1 billion by 2100; high variant 10.6 bn (2050) / 15.8 bn (2100), low 8.1 / 6.2 bn. No peak before 2100 in the medium variant (UN News: 10 billion reached 'at some point after 2081'). World TFR from the wpp2010 R package (UN WPP 2010 data): 2.45 (2010-2015), 2.33 (2020-2025), 2.17 (2045-2050), 2.03 (2095-2100)."},{"revision":"2012","release_date":"2013-06-13","world_2050":9.551,"world_2100":10.854,"peak_year":null,"peak_size":null,"world_tfr_2020_2025":2.41,"world_tfr_2045_2050":2.24,"units":"population in billions (medium variant); TFR = live births per woman, 5-year period average","source_url":"https://desapublications.un.org/file/678/download","additional_source_urls":["https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cran/wpp2012/master/data/tfrprojMed.txt"],"notes":"WPP 2012 Highlights and Advance Tables (ESA/P/WP.228). Table S.2: world 9,550,945 thousand (2050), 10,853,849 thousand (2100); 7.2 billion in mid-2013. Table S.9: world TFR 2.53 (2005-2010), 2.50 (2010-2015), 2.45 (2015-2020), 2.41 (2020-2025; package 2.407), 2.24 (2045-2050), 1.99 (2095-2100). No peak before 2100 stated. Launch date 13 June 2013 as shown in search results (UN press conference)."},{"revision":"2015","release_date":"2015-07-29","world_2050":9.725,"world_2100":11.213,"peak_year":null,"peak_size":null,"world_tfr_2020_2025":2.426,"world_tfr_2045_2050":2.25,"units":"population in billions (medium variant); TFR = live births per woman, 5-year period average","source_url":"https://desapublications.un.org/file/546/download","additional_source_urls":["https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/2015-report.html","https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cran/wpp2015/master/data/tfrprojMed.txt","https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"],"notes":"WPP 2015 Key Findings & Advance Tables (ESA/P/WP.241) Table S.2: 9,725,148 thousand (2050), 11,213,317 thousand (2100). Press release 29 July 2015: 7.3 bn -> 8.5 bn (2030) -> 9.7 bn (2050) -> 11.2 bn (2100). Medium variant still rising in 2100 (Fernandez-Villaverde & Norrick 2026, Table A4). Table S.9 world TFR: 2.51 (2010-2015), 2.47 (2015-2020), 2.38 (2025-2030), 2.25 (2045-2050), 1.99 (2095-2100); the 2020-2025 value (2.426) is from the wpp2015 R package (UN data), not printed in the report."},{"revision":"2017","release_date":"2017-06-21","world_2050":9.772,"world_2100":11.184,"peak_year":null,"peak_size":null,"world_tfr_2020_2025":2.434,"world_tfr_2045_2050":2.24,"units":"population in billions (medium variant); TFR = live births per woman, 5-year period average","source_url":"https://desapublications.un.org/file/624/download","additional_source_urls":["https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2017.html","https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PPgp/wpp2017/master/data/tfrprojMed.txt"],"notes":"WPP 2017 Key Findings & Advance Tables (ESA/P/WP/248) Table S.2: 9,771,823 thousand (2050), 11,184,368 thousand (2100). Press release 21 June 2017: 7.6 bn -> 8.6 bn (2030) -> 9.8 bn (2050) -> 11.2 bn (2100). Still rising in 2100 (Terra Incognita Table A4). Table S.5 world TFR 2.52 (2010-2015), 2.47 (2015-2020), 2.39 (2025-2030), 2.24 (2045-2050), 1.97 (2095-2100); 2020-2025 = 2.434 from wpp2017 R package."},{"revision":"2019","release_date":"2019-06","world_2050":9.7,"world_2100":10.875,"peak_year":null,"peak_size":null,"peak_text":"'could reach its peak around the end of the current century, at a level of nearly 11 billion'","world_tfr_2020_2025":2.418,"world_tfr_2045_2050":2.209,"units":"population in billions (medium variant); TFR = live births per woman, 5-year period average","source_url":"https://www.un.org/en/node/94598","additional_source_urls":["https://desapublications.un.org/publications/world-population-prospects-2019-highlights","https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PPgp/wpp2019/master/data/tfrprojMed.txt","https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf","https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7561721/"],"notes":"UN DESA release for WPP 2019 Highlights: 7.7 bn -> 9.7 bn (2050); 10.9 bn (2100) per search snippet; peak 'nearly 11 billion' around end of century; global TFR 3.2 (1990) -> 2.5 (2019) -> 2.2 (2050). Exact 2100 value 10.875 bn from Fernandez-Villaverde & Norrick (2026) Table A4 (they list WPP 2019 as 'still rising in 2100'); Vollset et al. 2020 cite UNPD 2100 = 10.88 bn (95% PI 9.42-12.66). World TFR 2020-2025 (2.418) and 2045-2050 (2.209) from wpp2019 R package (UN data). Highlights PDF (12.99 MB) exceeded fetch limit."},{"revision":"2022","release_date":"2022-07-11","world_2050":9.7,"world_2100":10.349,"peak_year":2086,"peak_size":10.431,"world_tfr_2020_2025":2.32,"world_tfr_2045_2050":2.17,"world_tfr_2050_annual":2.149,"units":"population in billions (medium, 1 July); TFR derived as mean of annual values (WPP 2022 is annual)","source_url":"https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_press_release.pdf","additional_source_urls":["https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/undesa_pd_2022_wpp_key-messages.pdf","https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/undesa_pd_2022_wpp-pressbriefing_wilmoth.pdf","https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PPgp/wpp2022/main/data-raw/tfrprojMed.txt","https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PPgp/wpp2022/main/data-raw/tfr.txt","https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"],"notes":"Press release 11 July 2022: 8 bn on 15 Nov 2022; 8.5 bn (2030), 9.7 bn (2050); peak 'around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s' remaining at that level until 2100. Exact peak 10.431 bn in 2086 and 2100 = 10.349 bn from Terra Incognita Table A4 (first WPP to show a peak before 2100). J. Wilmoth (11 July 2022): the 10.4 bn end-century figure is 'more than a half billion lower' than WPP 2019, 'due mainly to a downward revision of recent population estimates for China, and to changes in estimated and projected levels of fertility for China and Nigeria'. World TFR (wpp2022 R package raw data, UN): 2.349 (2020 est), 2.321 (2021 est), 2.314/2.312/2.308 (2022-24 proj); world_tfr_2020_2025 = derived mean 2020-2024 = 2.32; world_tfr_2045_2050 = derived mean 2045-2049 = 2.17; Terra Incognita Table A5 gives 2.29 for 2025-2030 and 1.84 for 2095-2100."},{"revision":"2024","release_date":"2024-07-11","world_2050":9.664,"world_2100":10.18,"peak_year":2084,"peak_size":10.289,"world_tfr_2020_2025":2.28,"world_tfr_2045_2050":2.11,"world_tfr_2024":2.25,"world_tfr_2050_annual":2.097,"units":"population in billions (medium, 1 July); TFR derived as mean of annual values","source_url":"https://desapublications.un.org/file/20622/download","additional_source_urls":["https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2024/07/press-release-wpp2024/","https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-with-un-projections.csv?v=1&csvType=filtered&useColumnShortNames=true&country=~OWID_WRL","https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fertility-rate-with-projections.csv?v=1&csvType=filtered&useColumnShortNames=true&country=CHN~IND~NGA~OWID_WRL","https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PPgp/wpp2024/main/data-raw/tfrprojMed.txt","https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/population"],"notes":"Summary of Results (UN DESA/POP/2024/TR/NO.9): 8.2 bn (2024) -> peak ~10.3 bn in mid-2080s -> 10.2 bn (2100); 80% probability of a peak within the century vs ~30% a decade earlier; 2100 population 6% (~700 million) smaller than anticipated a decade ago, due to lower-than-expected fertility 'particularly China' and faster declines in parts of sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya, Niger, Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia). Global TFR 2.25 now (3.31 in 1990). Exact values (OWID copy of WPP 2024 medium): 9,664,378,585 (2050); peak 10,289,315,239 in 2084; 10,180,160,744 (2100). Annual world TFR: 2.322 (2020), 2.291 (2021), 2.265 (2022), 2.251 (2023) estimates; 2.248 (2024), 2.239 (2025) projections; first below 2.1 in 2050 (2.097). world_tfr_2020_2025 = derived mean 2020-2024 (2.275); world_tfr_2045_2050 = derived mean 2045-2049 (2.109). Low variant peak: 8.949 bn in 2053 (Terra Incognita)."},{"revision":"2026","release_date":null,"status":"not released - postponed to 2027","world_2050":null,"world_2100":null,"peak_year":null,"peak_size":null,"world_tfr_2020_2025":null,"world_tfr_2045_2050":null,"source_url":"https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/undesa_pd_2026_cpd59_e_cn.9_2026_crp.1.pdf","notes":"UN ECOSOC E/CN.9/2026/CRP.1 (26 March 2026), para 9.80: 'the release of the World Population Prospects has been postponed from 2026 to 2027 in line with the revised 2026 estimates'; programme targets now reference the '2027 revision of World Population Prospects'; liquidity constraints cited for missed targets. Fernandez-Villaverde & Norrick (10 Aug 2026) still call WPP 2024 'the most recent revision'."}],"assumptions":[{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2000 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":1.95,"target_year":2024,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/TR00/tr00.pdf","notes":"Low-cost 2.2 / high-cost 1.7. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"the assumed ultimate total fertility rate of 1.95 children per woman is attained in 2024 after a gradual decline from the preliminary estimate for 1999 of 2.06\". Raised from 1.9 (int) and 1.6 (high) in the 1999 report."},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2001 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":1.95,"target_year":2025,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/TR01/V_demographic.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.2 / high-cost 1.7. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"ultimate total fertility rates of 2.2, 1.95, and 1.7 ... trend into its ultimate level in 2025 starting from the estimated level for 1999 of 2.07.\""},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2002 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":1.95,"target_year":2026,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/TR02/V_demographic.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.2 / high-cost 1.7. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"trend from the estimated level of 2.13 for 2000, reaching the selected ultimate level for 2026 and later.\""},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2003 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":1.95,"target_year":2027,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/TR03/V_demographic.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.2 / high-cost 1.7. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"trend from the estimated level of 2.05 for 2001, reaching the selected ultimate level for 2027 and later.\""},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2004 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":1.95,"target_year":2028,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/TR04/V_demographic.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.2 / high-cost 1.7. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"trend from the estimated level of 2.01 for 2002, reaching the selected ultimate level for 2028 and later.\""},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2005 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":1.95,"target_year":2029,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/TR05/V_demographic.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.2 / high-cost 1.7. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"trend from the estimated level of 2.02 for 2002, reaching the selected ultimate level for 2029 and later.\" (as printed)"},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2006 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":2.0,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/TR06/V_demographic.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.3 / high-cost 1.7. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"ultimate total fertility rates of 2.3, 2.0 and 1.7 ... reaching the selected ultimate level for 2030 and later.\" Raised from 1.95 because of \"persistently higher than previously assumed levels\"."},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2007 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":2.0,"target_year":2031,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/TR07/V_demographic.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.3 / high-cost 1.7. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"trend from the estimated level of 2.05 for 2004, reaching the selected ultimate level for 2031 and later.\""},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2008 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":2.0,"target_year":2032,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/TR08/V_demographic.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.3 / high-cost 1.7. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"assumed to reach a level of 2.06 children per woman for 2006 and 2007 ... ultimate level, which is reached for 2032 and later.\""},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2009 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":2.0,"target_year":2033,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2009/V_demographic.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.3 / high-cost 1.7. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"2.10 children per woman for both 2006 and 2007 and 2.08 for 2008 ... ultimate level, which is reached in 2033.\""},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2010 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":2.0,"target_year":2034,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2010/V_demographic.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.3 / high-cost 1.7. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"remain at a level of 2.12 ... for 2007 and decrease to 2.09 for both 2008 and 2009 ... ultimate level, which is reached in 2034.\""},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2011 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":2.0,"target_year":2035,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2011/V_A_demo.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.3 / high-cost 1.7. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"decreased further to 2.03 in 2009. The total fertility rate for 2010 is assumed to be 2.08 ... reached in 2035.\""},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2012 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":2.0,"target_year":2036,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2012/V_A_demo.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.3 / high-cost 1.7. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"the projected total fertility rate rises slightly until 2015 when it reaches 2.06 ... gradual trend toward the ultimate level in 2036.\""},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2013 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":2.0,"target_year":2037,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2013/V_A_demo.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.3 / high-cost 1.7. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"the projected total fertility rate rises until 2021 when it reaches 2.07 ... toward the ultimate level in 2037.\""},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2014 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":2.0,"target_year":2038,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2014/V_A_demo.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.3 / high-cost 1.7. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"rises until 2021 when it reaches 2.07 ... toward the ultimate level in 2038.\""},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2015 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":2.0,"target_year":2027,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2015/V_A_demo.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.2 / high-cost 1.8. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"rises until it reaches 2.07 for 2022 ... Thereafter, the total fertility rate follows a linear trend toward the ultimate level in 2027.\" Recession dip treated as deferral \"largely offset with full economic recovery\"."},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2016 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":2.0,"target_year":2027,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2016/V_A_demo.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.2 / high-cost 1.8. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"rises until it reaches 2.05 for 2023 ... linear trend toward the ultimate level in 2027.\""},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2017 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":2.0,"target_year":2027,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2017/V_A_demo.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.2 / high-cost 1.8. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"rises until it reaches 2.05 for 2023 ... linear trend toward the ultimate level in 2027.\""},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2018 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":2.0,"target_year":2027,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2018/V_A_demo.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.2 / high-cost 1.8. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"gradually increases from 2017 through 2027\"; \"this year’s report eliminates the temporary rise in the total fertility rate above the ultimate assumed level.\""},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2019 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":2.0,"target_year":2027,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2019/V_A_demo.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.2 / high-cost 1.8. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"gradually increases from 2018 through the year the ultimate value is reached (2027)\"."},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2020 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":1.95,"target_year":2029,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2020/V_A_demo.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.15 / high-cost 1.75. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"The assumed ultimate total fertility rates are 2.15, 1.95, and 1.75 ... reduced from ... 2.20, 2.00, and 1.80\"; ultimate \"reached (2029)\"."},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2021 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":2.0,"target_year":2056,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2021/V_A_demo.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.2 / high-cost 1.7. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: Switch to cohort-based approach; projected 1.54 for 2021 and 1.62 for 2022 (COVID dip), make-up 2024-26; \"gradually increases through the year the ultimate value is reached (2056)\"."},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2022 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":2.0,"target_year":2056,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2022/V_A_demo.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.2 / high-cost 1.7. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"These are the same ultimate rates as those assumed for last year’s report ... the ultimate value is reached (2056).\""},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2023 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":2.0,"target_year":2056,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2023/V_A_demo.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.2 / high-cost 1.7. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"gradually increases on a period (annual) basis through the year the ultimate period value is reached (2056).\""},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2024 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":1.9,"target_year":2040,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2024/V_A_demo.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.1 / high-cost 1.6. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"ultimate total fertility rates of 2.10, 1.90, and 1.60 ... 0.1 child per woman lower than ... last year’s report\"; ultimate period value reached 2040."},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2025 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":1.9,"target_year":2050,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2025/V_A_demo.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.1 / high-cost 1.6. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"These rates are the same as the ultimate rates assumed in last year’s report\"; \"reached (2050) ... The ultimate period values were reached in 2040 in last year’s report.\" Assumptions set Dec 2024."},{"country":"USA","producer":"SSA Trustees (OASDI)","vintage":"2026 report","assumption":"ultimate period TFR, intermediate (alternative II)","value":1.75,"target_year":2050,"source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2026/V_A_demo.html","notes":"Low-cost 2.1 / high-cost 1.4. Scope: Social Security area population. Evidence: \"ultimate total fertility rates of 2.10, 1.75, and 1.40\"; intermediate and high-cost \"0.15 and 0.20 lower\" than 2025 report; reached 2050. Assumptions set February 2026. Report says TFR \"reaching 1.60 in 2024; it is estimated to drop further to 1.59 in 2025\"."},{"country":"USA","producer":"US Census Bureau","vintage":"2012 National Projections (Dec 2012), middle series","assumption":"projected resident population 2060 (no peak before 2060)","value":420268000,"target_year":2060,"source_url":"https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj/tables/2012/2012-summary-tables/np2012-t1.xls","notes":"NP2012-T1: 2060 = 420,268 thousand; still growing ~0.5%/yr in 2060. Press release cb12-243 (https://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/population/cb12-243.html): 'reaching 420.3 million in 2060'; crosses 400 million in 2051."},{"country":"USA","producer":"US Census Bureau","vintage":"2017 National Projections (Mar 2018, revised Sep 2018), main series","assumption":"projected resident population 2060 (no peak before 2060)","value":404483000,"target_year":2060,"source_url":"https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj/tables/2017/2017-summary-tables/np2017-t1.xlsx","notes":"NP2017-T1 main series: 2060 = 404,483 thousand; growth still 0.40%/yr in 2060 (no peak within horizon). Revised Sept 2018 for an infant-mortality error."},{"country":"USA","producer":"US Census Bureau","vintage":"2023 National Projections (Nov 2023), main series","assumption":"projected resident population 2060","value":364287000,"target_year":2060,"source_url":"https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj/tables/2023/2023-summary-tables/np2023-t1.xlsx","notes":"NP2023-T1 main series: 2060 = 364,287 thousand; natural change turns negative in 2038 (-13k)."},{"country":"USA","producer":"US Census Bureau","vintage":"2023 National Projections (Nov 2023), main series","assumption":"projected peak resident population","value":369363000,"target_year":2080,"source_url":"https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj/tables/2023/2023-summary-tables/np2023-t1.xlsx","notes":"Peak 369,363 thousand in 2080, then decline to 365,558 thousand in 2100. Press release (https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-projections.html): 'projected to reach a high of nearly 370 million in 2080'; 2100 alternatives: high-immigration 435m, low 319m, zero 226m."},{"country":"USA","producer":"US Census Bureau","vintage":"2012 National Projections (Dec 2012)","assumption":"TFR convergence target (all race/Hispanic groups converge to non-Hispanic White 1989-2009 average)","value":1.83,"target_year":2100,"source_url":"https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj/technical-documentation/methodology/methodstatement12.pdf","notes":"'assuming convergence by 2100 ... to the average age-specific fertility rates of the non-Hispanic White group for the years 1989-2009 (1.83 births per woman).' Implied total TFR path in Table 1: 2.00 (2012), 1.98 (2020), 1.97 (2025), 1.91 (2060)."},{"country":"USA","producer":"US Census Bureau","vintage":"2017 National Projections (Mar 2018)","assumption":"TFR convergence target (native White 2004-2015 average ASFRs)","value":null,"target_year":2100,"source_url":"https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj/technical-documentation/methodology/methodstatement17.pdf","notes":"'linear convergence in the year 2100 ... the average age-specific fertility rates of the native White population for the years 2004 to 2015'. The TFR level of the target is not stated in the methodology text (null)."},{"country":"USA","producer":"US Census Bureau","vintage":"2023 National Projections (Nov 2023)","assumption":"TFR convergence target (native White TFR in 2020)","value":1.52,"target_year":2123,"source_url":"https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj/technical-documentation/methodology/methodstatement23.pdf","notes":"'The 2123 convergence point is equal to the total fertility rate of the native White group in 2020, 1.52'."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2010-based NPP (published 26 Oct 2011)","assumption":"long-term TFR (= long-term completed family size), principal","value":1.84,"target_year":2027,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2011-10-26","notes":"Scope UK. Set as long-term completed family size 1.84, unchanged from 2008-based. Evidence: 'increase from current levels to a high of 2.02 in 2013 before decreasing to the long-term assumption of 1.84 by 2027'."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2010-based NPP (published 26 Oct 2011)","assumption":"near-term TFR (short-term peak), principal","value":2.02,"target_year":2013,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2011-10-26","notes":"Scope UK. Short-term path rose to a peak of 2.02 in 2013, then declined to 1.84 by 2027 (same sentence as long-term item). Annual 2010-based TFR path not obtained (2010-based reference volume only on UK Government Web Archive, blocked by a bot-check page)."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2010-based NPP (published 26 Oct 2011)","assumption":"long-term TFR (completed family size), low fertility variant","value":1.64,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2011-10-26","notes":"Scope UK. Evidence: 'long-term family sizes of 0.2 children per woman higher or lower (that is, 2.04 and 1.64 children per woman for the UK)'. Year not stated."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2010-based NPP (published 26 Oct 2011)","assumption":"long-term TFR (completed family size), high fertility variant","value":2.04,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2011-10-26","notes":"Scope UK. Same sentence as low variant ('2.04 and 1.64 children per woman for the UK'). Bulletin notes short-term variant assumptions were non-symmetric. Year not stated."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2010-based NPP (published 26 Oct 2011)","assumption":"long-term completed family size, principal (England)","value":1.85,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2011-10-26","notes":"Scope ENGLAND (Wales also 1.85; Scotland 1.70; NI 1.95). Bulletin Table 5, row '2010-based': UK 1.84 | England 1.85 | Wales 1.85 | Scotland 1.70 | NI 1.95. Year for England not stated (UK path reaches 1.84 by 2027)."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2012-based NPP (published 6 Nov 2013)","assumption":"long-term TFR (= long-term completed family size), principal","value":1.89,"target_year":2029,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/compendium/nationalpopulationprojections/2014-03-28/chapter3fertility2012basednppreferencevolume","notes":"Scope UK. CFS 1.89 'for women born in 2005 and later' (+0.05 vs 2010-based). Reference volume (28 Mar 2014): 'levelling off at 1.89 by 2029'. Bulletin: TFR 'decreases slightly from mid-2012 to mid-2013 then stabilises at 1.89'."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2012-based NPP (published 6 Nov 2013)","assumption":"near-term TFR (first projection year 2013), principal","value":1.89,"target_year":2013,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/generator?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/compendium/nationalpopulationprojections/2014-03-28/chapter3fertility2012basednppreferencevolume/15070704&format=csv","notes":"Scope UK. Reference volume Figure 3-1 chart data (2 d.p.) shows assumed TFR 1.89 in every year 2013-2037 (actual 2012 = 1.92). Bulletin (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2013-11-06): first-year decline then stable at 1.89."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2012-based NPP (published 6 Nov 2013)","assumption":"long-term TFR (completed family size), low fertility variant","value":1.69,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2013-11-06","notes":"Scope UK. Bulletin: variants 'assume long-term family sizes of 0.2 children per woman higher or lower', 'that is, 2.09 and 1.69 children per woman for the UK'."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2012-based NPP (published 6 Nov 2013)","assumption":"long-term TFR (completed family size), high fertility variant","value":2.09,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2013-11-06","notes":"Scope UK. Same sentence as low variant (2.09 and 1.69). Variants chapter: high-variant CFS stable 'from the 1995 cohort onwards' at 2.09."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2012-based NPP (published 6 Nov 2013)","assumption":"long-term completed family size, principal (England)","value":1.9,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/compendium/nationalpopulationprojections/2014-03-28/chapter3fertility2012basednppreferencevolume","notes":"Scope ENGLAND (Wales 1.90, NI 2.00, Scotland 1.75). Evidence: 'the assumed long-term completed family size is 1.90 children per woman for England and for Wales, 2.00 for Northern Ireland'. Year for England not stated."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2014-based NPP (published 29 Oct 2015)","assumption":"long-term TFR (= long-term completed family size), principal","value":1.89,"target_year":2032,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/compendium/nationalpopulationprojections/2014basedreferencevolumeseriespp2/chapter3fertility2014basednationalpopulationprojectionsreferencevolume","notes":"Scope UK. Unchanged from 2012-based. Reference volume (30 Mar 2016): TFR 'fluctuates in the short-term and levels off at the long-term assumption of 1.89 by 2032'. Variants chapter says stabilises at 1.89 from mid-2033."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2014-based NPP (published 29 Oct 2015)","assumption":"near-term TFR (first projection year 2015), principal","value":1.81,"target_year":2015,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/generator?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/compendium/nationalpopulationprojections/2014basedreferencevolumeseriespp2/chapter3fertility2014basednationalpopulationprojectionsreferencevolume/1707dd02&format=csv","notes":"Scope UK. Reference volume Figure 3.1 chart data (2 d.p.): 2015 1.81, 2016 1.82, 2017 1.82, 2018 1.83, 2019 1.84, 2020 1.85 (actual 2014 = 1.82). Variants chapter: 'increases slightly from 1.81 in mid-2014'."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2014-based NPP (published 29 Oct 2015)","assumption":"long-term TFR, low fertility variant","value":1.69,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/compendium/nationalpopulationprojections/2015-10-29/fertilityassumptions","notes":"Scope UK. Compendium (29 Oct 2015) Table 3.4 'Assumed long-term total fertility rates for the standard variants': UK High 2.09 | Principal 1.89 | Low 1.69."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2014-based NPP (published 29 Oct 2015)","assumption":"long-term TFR, high fertility variant","value":2.09,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/compendium/nationalpopulationprojections/2015-10-29/fertilityassumptions","notes":"Scope UK. Table 3.4: UK High 2.09 | Principal 1.89 | Low 1.69 (England 2.10 | 1.90 | 1.70)."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2014-based NPP (published 29 Oct 2015)","assumption":"long-term completed family size, principal (England)","value":1.9,"target_year":2029,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/compendium/nationalpopulationprojections/2015-10-29/fertilityassumptions","notes":"Scope ENGLAND. Evidence: 'For England and for Wales, the long-term average completed family size is assumed to be 1.90 children per woman.' Year from reference-volume Figure 3.4 chart data (https://www.ons.gov.uk/generator?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/compendium/nationalpopulationprojections/2014basedreferencevolumeseriespp2/chapter3fertility2014basednationalpopulationprojectionsreferencevolume/4f32c0e5&format=csv): England first 1.90 in 2029."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2016-based NPP (published 26 Oct 2017)","assumption":"long-term TFR (= long-term completed family size), principal","value":1.84,"target_year":2041,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/compendium/nationalpopulationprojections/2016basedprojections/fertilityassumptions","notes":"Scope UK. CFS 'stabilising at 1.84 children for women born from 2000 onwards'; TFR 'levels out at 1.84 in the long-term'. Year from chart data: 1.837 in 2040, 1.839 in 2041 (25 years after base)."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2016-based NPP (published 26 Oct 2017)","assumption":"near-term TFR (first projection year 2017), principal","value":1.77,"target_year":2017,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/compendium/nationalpopulationprojections/2016basedprojections/fertilityassumptions","notes":"Scope UK. Evidence: 'total fertility rate for the UK decreases in the short term from the 2016 level of 1.79 to 1.77 in 2017, then increases gradually'."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2016-based NPP (published 26 Oct 2017)","assumption":"long-term TFR, low fertility variant","value":1.64,"target_year":2041,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/compendium/nationalpopulationprojections/2016basedprojections/fertilityassumptions","notes":"Scope UK. Table 3.4 standard variants: UK High 1.94 | Principal 1.84 | Low 1.64. First round with asymmetric variants (+0.1/-0.2)."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2016-based NPP (published 26 Oct 2017)","assumption":"long-term TFR, high fertility variant","value":1.94,"target_year":2041,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/compendium/nationalpopulationprojections/2016basedprojections/fertilityassumptions","notes":"Scope UK. Evidence: 'In the long term, the high and low fertility variants assume total fertility rates of 1.94 and 1.64 children per woman for the UK.'"},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2016-based NPP (published 26 Oct 2017)","assumption":"long-term completed family size, principal (England)","value":1.85,"target_year":2041,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/compendium/nationalpopulationprojections/2016basedprojections/fertilityassumptions","notes":"Scope ENGLAND (and Wales). Evidence: 'For England and Wales the long-term average completed family size is assumed to be 1.85 children per woman, a decrease of 0.05'. Figure 3.4 chart data: England 1.851 in 2040 and 2041."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2018-based NPP (published 21 Oct 2019)","assumption":"long-term TFR (= long-term completed family size), principal","value":1.78,"target_year":2043,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2018based","notes":"Scope UK. Evidence: 'we have assumed a UK TFR of 1.78 children per woman by mid-2043, slightly increasing to close to 1.79 later in the projection.' Experts' average for 2042 was 1.77."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2018-based NPP (published 21 Oct 2019)","assumption":"near-term TFR (short term), principal","value":1.65,"target_year":2022,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2018based","notes":"Scope UK. Evidence: 'we have assumed a UK TFR of 1.65 children per woman in the short term'. Experts were asked about 2022 (mean 1.70); chart data: 1.648 in 2022, 1.652 in 2023."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2018-based NPP (published 21 Oct 2019)","assumption":"long-term TFR (completed family size), low fertility variant","value":1.58,"target_year":2043,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2018based","notes":"Scope UK. Table 1 'Long-term assumptions for completed family size ... for the year ending mid-2043': UK Principal 1.78 | Low 1.58 | High 1.88."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2018-based NPP (published 21 Oct 2019)","assumption":"long-term TFR (completed family size), high fertility variant","value":1.88,"target_year":2043,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2018based","notes":"Scope UK. Table 1 (mid-2043): UK 1.78 | 1.58 | 1.88; variants are -0.2/+0.1 around principal, same widths as 2016-based."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2018-based NPP (published 21 Oct 2019)","assumption":"long-term completed family size, principal (England)","value":1.81,"target_year":2043,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2018based","notes":"Scope ENGLAND. Table 1 (mid-2043): England Principal 1.81 | Low 1.61 | High 1.91. Table 4 compares England: 2018 1.81, 2016 1.85, 2014 1.90, 2012 1.90, 2010 1.85."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2020-based interim NPP (published 12 Jan 2022)","assumption":"long-term TFR (= long-term completed family size), principal","value":1.59,"target_year":2045,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2020basedinterim","notes":"Scope UK. Evidence: 'The long-term assumption for completed family size for the UK will be 1.59 children per woman by mid-2045'. No variant projections were produced for this release."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2020-based interim NPP (published 12 Jan 2022)","assumption":"near-term TFR (year ending mid-2025), principal","value":1.53,"target_year":2025,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2020basedinterim","notes":"Scope UK. Table 1 'Short and long-term assumptions for total fertility rate': UK 2020 1.56 | mid-2025 1.53 | mid-2045 1.59. Expert panel aimed for 1.53 (2024) and 1.59 (2044)."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2020-based interim NPP (published 12 Jan 2022)","assumption":"long-term TFR, principal (England)","value":1.62,"target_year":2045,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2020basedinterim","notes":"Scope ENGLAND. Table 1: England 2020 1.59 | mid-2025 1.56 | mid-2045 1.62."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2021-based interim NPP (published 30 Jan 2024)","assumption":"long-term TFR (= long-term completed family size), principal","value":1.59,"target_year":2045,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2021basedinterim","notes":"Scope UK. Reused 2020-based assumptions: 'Fertility and mortality assumptions have been reused from the 2020-based interim ... with assumptions for years to mid-2022 and mid-2023 replaced by births'. No variants."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2022-based NPP (published 28 Jan 2025)","assumption":"long-term TFR (= long-term completed family size), principal","value":1.45,"target_year":2047,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2022based","notes":"Scope UK. Evidence: 'The long-term assumption for completed family size for the UK will be 1.45 children per woman by mid-2047'. Expert panel had aimed for 1.50 (2047)."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2022-based NPP (published 28 Jan 2025)","assumption":"near-term TFR (year ending mid-2027), principal","value":1.41,"target_year":2027,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2022based","notes":"Scope UK. Evidence: 'UK principal total fertility rate (TFR) ... 1.41 children in the short-term at five years from the base year in 2027'. Table 1: 2022 1.48 | mid-2027 1.41 | mid-2047 1.45."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2022-based NPP (published 28 Jan 2025)","assumption":"long-term TFR, low fertility variant","value":1.25,"target_year":2047,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2022based","notes":"Scope UK. Table 2 (2047): UK Principal 1.45 | Low 1.25 | High 1.65. Low = principal minus 0.2 throughout."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2022-based NPP (published 28 Jan 2025)","assumption":"long-term TFR, high fertility variant","value":1.65,"target_year":2047,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2022based","notes":"Scope UK. 'The high variant was set as the principal TFR plus 0.1 in the short term, rising to the principal TFR plus 0.2'. Replacement variant (2.075) also published."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2022-based NPP (published 28 Jan 2025)","assumption":"long-term TFR, principal (England)","value":1.46,"target_year":2047,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2022based","notes":"Scope ENGLAND. Table 1: England 2022 1.49 | mid-2027 1.42 | mid-2047 1.46; Table 2 England low 1.26, high 1.66."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2024-based NPP (published 28 Apr 2026) [extra vintage, beyond requested list]","assumption":"long-term TFR (= long-term completed family size), principal","value":1.42,"target_year":2049,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2024based","notes":"Scope UK. Evidence: '1.38 children per woman by 2029, rising in the long term to 1.42 children per woman by 2049'. Bulletin (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2024based): CFS 1.42 by mid-2049."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2024-based NPP (published 28 Apr 2026) [extra vintage, beyond requested list]","assumption":"near-term TFR (2029), principal","value":1.38,"target_year":2029,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2024based","notes":"Scope UK. Table 1: UK 2024 (observed) 1.40 | 2029 1.38 | 2049 1.42. Expert panel suggested 1.38 (2029) and 1.40 (2049)."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2024-based NPP (published 28 Apr 2026) [extra vintage, beyond requested list]","assumption":"long-term TFR, low fertility variant","value":1.22,"target_year":2049,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2024based","notes":"Scope UK. Table 2 (2049): UK Principal 1.42 | Low 1.22 | High 1.62. Low = principal -0.1 short term, -0.2 longer term."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2024-based NPP (published 28 Apr 2026) [extra vintage, beyond requested list]","assumption":"long-term TFR, high fertility variant","value":1.62,"target_year":2049,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2024based","notes":"Scope UK. Table 2 (2049): UK 1.42 | 1.22 | 1.62. High = principal +0.1 short term, +0.2 longer term."},{"country":"GBR","producer":"ONS","vintage":"2024-based NPP (published 28 Apr 2026) [extra vintage, beyond requested list]","assumption":"long-term TFR, principal (England)","value":1.43,"target_year":2049,"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsfertilityassumptions2024based","notes":"Scope ENGLAND. Table 1: England 2024 (observed) 1.42 | 2029 1.39 | 2049 1.43; Table 2 England low 1.23, high 1.63."},{"country":"FIN","producer":"Statistics Finland","vintage":"Population projection 2009 (2009-2060, published 30 Sep 2009) [context, before requested window]","assumption":"TFR, main projection (held constant throughout projection period)","value":1.85,"target_year":2009,"source_url":"https://stat.fi/til/vaenn/2009/vaenn_2009_2009-09-30_laa_001_en.html","notes":"Whole country. Quality description: 'fertility rates have been kept constant throughout the projection period ... total fertility rate ... is 1.85' (ASFRs 2004-2008). target_year = first projection year. 2012 quality description compares: projected 1.850 vs actual 1.864/1.870/1.827 (2009-2011)."},{"country":"FIN","producer":"Statistics Finland","vintage":"Population projection 2012 (2012-2060, published 28 Sep 2012)","assumption":"TFR, main projection (held constant throughout projection period)","value":1.82,"target_year":2012,"source_url":"https://stat.fi/til/vaenn/2012/vaenn_2012_2012-09-28_laa_001_en.html","notes":"Whole country. Quality description: fertility rates 'kept constant throughout the projection period ... total fertility rate ... is 1.82' (ASFRs 2007-2011; Finnish version also 1,82). Release: birth rate assumed to 'remain at their observed levels'. target_year = first projection year."},{"country":"FIN","producer":"Statistics Finland","vintage":"Population projection 2015 (2015-2065, published 30 Oct 2015)","assumption":"TFR, main projection (held constant throughout projection period)","value":1.7,"target_year":2015,"source_url":"https://stat.fi/til/vaenn/2015/vaenn_2015_2015-10-30_tie_001_en.html","notes":"Whole country. Release: 'assumes that the birth rate would remain constant in future ... the total fertility rate is assumed to be 1.70.' ASFRs from 2010-2014. target_year = first projection year."},{"country":"FIN","producer":"Statistics Finland","vintage":"Population projection 2018 (2018-2070, published 16 Nov 2018)","assumption":"TFR, main projection (held constant throughout projection period)","value":1.45,"target_year":2018,"source_url":"https://stat.fi/til/vaenn/2018/vaenn_2018_2018-11-16_tie_001_en.html","notes":"Whole country. Release: 'assumes that the birth rate would remain constant in future ... the total fertility rate, is assumed to be 1.45.' Same release estimated 2018 TFR at 1.43 (2017: 1.49)."},{"country":"FIN","producer":"Statistics Finland","vintage":"Population projection 2019 (2019-2070, published 30 Sep 2019)","assumption":"TFR, main projection (held constant throughout projection period)","value":1.35,"target_year":2019,"source_url":"https://stat.fi/til/vaenn/2019/vaenn_2019_2019-09-30_tie_001_en.html","notes":"Whole country. Release: 'the total fertility rate is assumed to be 1.35. The assumption is drastic but reflects the current birth rate.' No alternative fertility calculation; earlier (higher-fertility) projections cited as comparison."},{"country":"FIN","producer":"Statistics Finland","vintage":"Population projection 2021 (2021-2070, published 30 Sep 2021)","assumption":"TFR, main projection (held constant throughout projection period)","value":1.45,"target_year":2021,"source_url":"https://stat.fi/til/vaenn/2021/vaenn_2021_2021-09-30_tie_001_en.html","notes":"Whole country. Release: 'assumes that the birth rate would remain constant in future ... the total fertility rate is assumed to be 1.45.' ASFRs from 2016-2020 (quality description)."},{"country":"FIN","producer":"Statistics Finland","vintage":"Population projection 2024 (2024-2075, published 24 Oct 2024)","assumption":"TFR, main projection (held constant throughout projection period)","value":1.26,"target_year":2024,"source_url":"https://stat.fi/fi/julkaisu/cln1i9lg94af80bw1rxn0njfg","notes":"Whole country. Finnish release: 'oletetaan, että syntyvyys pysyisi vakiona' and 'kokonaishedelmällisyysluvun oletetaan olevan 1,26'. English release page did not render this paragraph. Regional projection to 2045."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2008","assumption":"near-term TFR (2008, first projection year), convergence scenario, EU27 of 2007 (incl. UK, excl. HR); AR2009 Table 1.2 EU27 row","value":1.54,"target_year":2008,"source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/pages/publication13782_en.pdf","notes":"2009 Ageing Report (European Economy 7/2008) Table 1.2 'Projection of fertility rates in EUROPOP2008', row EU27: 1,54 (2008). Aggregation method not stated; close to population-weighted mean (my check). Source: Eurostat, EUROPOP2008."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2008","assumption":"near-term TFR (2008), convergence scenario, EU27 of 2007; AR2009 text figure (equals unweighted mean of 27 country values)","value":1.52,"target_year":2008,"source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/pages/publication13782_en.pdf","notes":"Quote: 'For the EU, the total fertility rate (TFR) is projected to rise from 1.52 in 2008 to 1.57 by 2030 and 1.64 by 2060.' My check: simple mean of Table 1.2 country values = 1.518/1.570/1.640."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2008","assumption":"mid-term TFR (2030), convergence scenario, EU27 of 2007; AR2009 Table 1.2 EU27 row","value":1.6,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/pages/publication13782_en.pdf","notes":"AR2009 Table 1.2 EU27: 1,54 (2008), 1,54 (2010), 1,57 (2020), 1,60 (2030), 1,62 (2040), 1,65 (2050), 1,67 (2060). Text gives 1.57 for 2030 (unweighted mean)."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2008","assumption":"long-term TFR (2060, end of horizon), convergence scenario, EU27 of 2007; Eurostat pooled aggregate (SiF 72/2008 Table 12)","value":1.68,"target_year":2060,"source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3433488/5583040/KS-SF-08-072-EN.PDF.pdf/1c8f668a-d1d9-42cb-80b1-eaf3dfc1b7df?t=1414693648000","notes":"Statistics in Focus 72/2008 Table 12 'Assumptions for the EUROPOP2008 convergence scenario, convergence year 2150 for the target year 2060': EU27 TFR 1.68; footnote: 'EU27 was calculated by merging births ... and the population at risk'. AR2009 Table 1.2 shows 1.67, AR2009 text 1.64 (unweighted). EUROPOP2008 EU27 uses metropolitan France (FX)."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2008","assumption":"convergence TFR (country-level theoretical target, convergence year)","value":1.85,"target_year":2150,"source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/pages/publication13782_en.pdf","notes":"Quote: 'The theoretical convergence Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was set to 1.85 to be achieved by 2150.' Forerunners: DK, FI, SE, UK, FR, IE, NO."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2013","assumption":"near-term TFR (2013, base/first projection year), main scenario, EU28 (weighted average)","value":1.59,"target_year":2013,"source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2014/pdf/ee8_en.pdf","notes":"AR2015 Table I.1.2 'Projection of fertility rates in EUROPOP2013', row EU (EU28, weighted): 1,59/1,63/1,68/1,71/1,73/1,76 for 2013/2020/2030/2040/2050/2060. Quote: 'projected to rise from 1.59 in 2013 to 1.68 by 2030 and further to 1.76 by 2060'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2013","assumption":"TFR 2020, main scenario, EU28 (weighted average)","value":1.63,"target_year":2020,"source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2014/pdf/ee8_en.pdf","notes":"AR2015 Table I.1.2 'Projection of fertility rates in EUROPOP2013', row EU (EU28, weighted): 1,59/1,63/1,68/1,71/1,73/1,76 for 2013/2020/2030/2040/2050/2060. Quote: 'projected to rise from 1.59 in 2013 to 1.68 by 2030 and further to 1.76 by 2060'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2013","assumption":"mid-term TFR (2030), main scenario, EU28 (weighted average)","value":1.68,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2014/pdf/ee8_en.pdf","notes":"AR2015 Table I.1.2 'Projection of fertility rates in EUROPOP2013', row EU (EU28, weighted): 1,59/1,63/1,68/1,71/1,73/1,76 for 2013/2020/2030/2040/2050/2060. Quote: 'projected to rise from 1.59 in 2013 to 1.68 by 2030 and further to 1.76 by 2060'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2013","assumption":"long-term TFR (2060; projection horizon 2080), main scenario, EU28 (weighted average)","value":1.76,"target_year":2060,"source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2014/pdf/ee8_en.pdf","notes":"AR2015 Table I.1.2 'Projection of fertility rates in EUROPOP2013', row EU (EU28, weighted): 1,59/1,63/1,68/1,71/1,73/1,76 for 2013/2020/2030/2040/2050/2060. Quote: 'projected to rise from 1.59 in 2013 to 1.68 by 2030 and further to 1.76 by 2060'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2013","assumption":"convergence target (partial convergence to Northern European forerunners)","value":null,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2014/pdf/ee8_en.pdf","notes":"AR2015: EUROPOP2013 used a 'convergence' approach; 'Setting the year of convergence very far into the future'. Neither the AR2015 nor the archived proj_13n_esms metadata state the convergence year or target TFR -> null."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2015","assumption":"near-term TFR (2016, first year tabulated in AR2018; base population 1 Jan 2015), baseline, EU28 (EU* in AR2018) (weighted average)","value":1.58,"target_year":2016,"source_url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/6895be18-4c50-4cdf-8477-8e3939518a77_en?filename=ip065_en.pdf","notes":"AR2018 Table I.1.2 (weighted): EU* (28 MS) 1.58/1.69/1.78/1.81, EU27 (excl. UK) 1.55/1.67/1.77/1.80 for 2016/2030/2060/2070. Quote: 'projected to rise from 1.58 in 2016 to 1.78 by 2060 and further to 1.81 by 2070'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2015","assumption":"mid-term TFR (2030), baseline, EU28 (EU* in AR2018) (weighted average)","value":1.69,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/6895be18-4c50-4cdf-8477-8e3939518a77_en?filename=ip065_en.pdf","notes":"AR2018 Table I.1.2 (weighted): EU* (28 MS) 1.58/1.69/1.78/1.81, EU27 (excl. UK) 1.55/1.67/1.77/1.80 for 2016/2030/2060/2070. Quote: 'projected to rise from 1.58 in 2016 to 1.78 by 2060 and further to 1.81 by 2070'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2015","assumption":"TFR 2060, baseline, EU28 (EU* in AR2018) (weighted average)","value":1.78,"target_year":2060,"source_url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/6895be18-4c50-4cdf-8477-8e3939518a77_en?filename=ip065_en.pdf","notes":"AR2018 Table I.1.2 (weighted): EU* (28 MS) 1.58/1.69/1.78/1.81, EU27 (excl. UK) 1.55/1.67/1.77/1.80 for 2016/2030/2060/2070. Quote: 'projected to rise from 1.58 in 2016 to 1.78 by 2060 and further to 1.81 by 2070'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2015","assumption":"long-term TFR (2070; projection horizon 2080), baseline, EU28 (EU* in AR2018) (weighted average)","value":1.81,"target_year":2070,"source_url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/6895be18-4c50-4cdf-8477-8e3939518a77_en?filename=ip065_en.pdf","notes":"AR2018 Table I.1.2 (weighted): EU* (28 MS) 1.58/1.69/1.78/1.81, EU27 (excl. UK) 1.55/1.67/1.77/1.80 for 2016/2030/2060/2070. Quote: 'projected to rise from 1.58 in 2016 to 1.78 by 2060 and further to 1.81 by 2070'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2015","assumption":"near-term TFR (2016, first year tabulated in AR2018; base population 1 Jan 2015), baseline, EU27 = EU28 excl. UK (same composition as EU27_2020) (weighted average)","value":1.55,"target_year":2016,"source_url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/6895be18-4c50-4cdf-8477-8e3939518a77_en?filename=ip065_en.pdf","notes":"AR2018 Table I.1.2 (weighted): EU* (28 MS) 1.58/1.69/1.78/1.81, EU27 (excl. UK) 1.55/1.67/1.77/1.80 for 2016/2030/2060/2070. Quote: 'projected to rise from 1.58 in 2016 to 1.78 by 2060 and further to 1.81 by 2070'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2015","assumption":"mid-term TFR (2030), baseline, EU27 = EU28 excl. UK (same composition as EU27_2020) (weighted average)","value":1.67,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/6895be18-4c50-4cdf-8477-8e3939518a77_en?filename=ip065_en.pdf","notes":"AR2018 Table I.1.2 (weighted): EU* (28 MS) 1.58/1.69/1.78/1.81, EU27 (excl. UK) 1.55/1.67/1.77/1.80 for 2016/2030/2060/2070. Quote: 'projected to rise from 1.58 in 2016 to 1.78 by 2060 and further to 1.81 by 2070'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2015","assumption":"TFR 2060, baseline, EU27 = EU28 excl. UK (same composition as EU27_2020) (weighted average)","value":1.77,"target_year":2060,"source_url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/6895be18-4c50-4cdf-8477-8e3939518a77_en?filename=ip065_en.pdf","notes":"AR2018 Table I.1.2 (weighted): EU* (28 MS) 1.58/1.69/1.78/1.81, EU27 (excl. UK) 1.55/1.67/1.77/1.80 for 2016/2030/2060/2070. Quote: 'projected to rise from 1.58 in 2016 to 1.78 by 2060 and further to 1.81 by 2070'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2015","assumption":"long-term TFR (2070; projection horizon 2080), baseline, EU27 = EU28 excl. UK (same composition as EU27_2020) (weighted average)","value":1.8,"target_year":2070,"source_url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/6895be18-4c50-4cdf-8477-8e3939518a77_en?filename=ip065_en.pdf","notes":"AR2018 Table I.1.2 (weighted): EU* (28 MS) 1.58/1.69/1.78/1.81, EU27 (excl. UK) 1.55/1.67/1.77/1.80 for 2016/2030/2060/2070. Quote: 'projected to rise from 1.58 in 2016 to 1.78 by 2060 and further to 1.81 by 2070'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2015","assumption":"convergence target (partial convergence to forerunner super-population)","value":null,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/Annexes/proj_19n_esms_an_27.pdf","notes":"Eurostat summary methodology of EUROPOP2015: parameters 'progressively forced towards the parameters of the super-population' (BE, DK, FR, NL, FI, UK) 'without however imposing full convergence'. No target year/value -> null."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2019","assumption":"near-term TFR (2019, base/first projection year), baseline, EU27_2020 (weighted average)","value":1.52,"target_year":2019,"source_url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/aa834439-72a6-44b4-9c19-8c3455ddc7fd_en?filename=ip142_en.pdf","notes":"AR2021 Table I.1.2, row EU27 (weighted): 1.52/1.55/1.61/1.65 for 2019/2030/2050/2070. Quote: 'projected to rise from 1.52 in 2019 to 1.65 by 2070 for the EU as a whole'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2019","assumption":"mid-term TFR (2030), baseline, EU27_2020 (weighted average)","value":1.55,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/aa834439-72a6-44b4-9c19-8c3455ddc7fd_en?filename=ip142_en.pdf","notes":"AR2021 Table I.1.2, row EU27 (weighted): 1.52/1.55/1.61/1.65 for 2019/2030/2050/2070. Quote: 'projected to rise from 1.52 in 2019 to 1.65 by 2070 for the EU as a whole'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2019","assumption":"TFR 2050, baseline, EU27_2020 (weighted average)","value":1.61,"target_year":2050,"source_url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/aa834439-72a6-44b4-9c19-8c3455ddc7fd_en?filename=ip142_en.pdf","notes":"AR2021 Table I.1.2, row EU27 (weighted): 1.52/1.55/1.61/1.65 for 2019/2030/2050/2070. Quote: 'projected to rise from 1.52 in 2019 to 1.65 by 2070 for the EU as a whole'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2019","assumption":"long-term TFR (2070; projection horizon 2100), baseline, EU27_2020 (weighted average)","value":1.65,"target_year":2070,"source_url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/aa834439-72a6-44b4-9c19-8c3455ddc7fd_en?filename=ip142_en.pdf","notes":"AR2021 Table I.1.2, row EU27 (weighted): 1.52/1.55/1.61/1.65 for 2019/2030/2050/2070. Quote: 'projected to rise from 1.52 in 2019 to 1.65 by 2070 for the EU as a whole'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2019","assumption":"long-term convergence anchor TFR (country level)","value":1.83,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/aa834439-72a6-44b4-9c19-8c3455ddc7fd_en?filename=ip142_en.pdf","notes":"Quote: 'This anchor equals 1.83 live births, which is the maximum fertility rate projected by the United Nations in 2100'; 'Full convergence to this common anchor is assumed beyond EUROPOP2019's own 2100 horizon.' target_year null (beyond 2100)."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2023","assumption":"near-term TFR (2022, base/first projection year), baseline, EU27_2020","value":1.5,"target_year":2022,"source_url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/ea60b7c2-1b91-4e28-b651-2385d589e8c4_en?filename=ip257_en_1.pdf","notes":"AR2024 Table I.1.2 'Projection of total fertility rates (TFR) in EUROPOP2023', row EU: 1.50/1.53/1.58/1.62 for 2022/2030/2050/2070. Quote: 'would rise from 1.50 in 2022 to 1.62 by 2070 for the EU'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2023","assumption":"mid-term TFR (2030), baseline, EU27_2020","value":1.53,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/ea60b7c2-1b91-4e28-b651-2385d589e8c4_en?filename=ip257_en_1.pdf","notes":"AR2024 Table I.1.2 'Projection of total fertility rates (TFR) in EUROPOP2023', row EU: 1.50/1.53/1.58/1.62 for 2022/2030/2050/2070. Quote: 'would rise from 1.50 in 2022 to 1.62 by 2070 for the EU'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2023","assumption":"TFR 2050, baseline, EU27_2020","value":1.58,"target_year":2050,"source_url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/ea60b7c2-1b91-4e28-b651-2385d589e8c4_en?filename=ip257_en_1.pdf","notes":"AR2024 Table I.1.2 'Projection of total fertility rates (TFR) in EUROPOP2023', row EU: 1.50/1.53/1.58/1.62 for 2022/2030/2050/2070. Quote: 'would rise from 1.50 in 2022 to 1.62 by 2070 for the EU'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2023","assumption":"long-term TFR (2070; projection horizon 2100), baseline, EU27_2020","value":1.62,"target_year":2070,"source_url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/ea60b7c2-1b91-4e28-b651-2385d589e8c4_en?filename=ip257_en_1.pdf","notes":"AR2024 Table I.1.2 'Projection of total fertility rates (TFR) in EUROPOP2023', row EU: 1.50/1.53/1.58/1.62 for 2022/2030/2050/2070. Quote: 'would rise from 1.50 in 2022 to 1.62 by 2070 for the EU'."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2023","assumption":"ultimate convergence TFR (long-term anchor, country level)","value":1.77,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/ea60b7c2-1b91-4e28-b651-2385d589e8c4_en?filename=ip257_en_1.pdf","notes":"Quote: 'For EUROPOP2023, this ultimate convergence value equals 1.77 live births per woman'; anchor reached 'beyond the projection period' (after 2100); derived from 2016-2020 data of frontrunners IE, SE, FR, DK, FI, BE, NL."},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2025","assumption":"near-term TFR (2025, base/first projection year), baseline, EU27_2020 - DERIVED by researcher (not published by Eurostat at EU level)","value":1.3,"target_year":2025,"source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/proj_25naasfr","notes":"DERIVED by me (EU value not published): pooled ASFR x female exposure, Eurostat proj_25naasfr + proj_25np, 27 MS; method reproduces AR2021/AR2024 EU TFRs within 0.01. Released 16 Apr 2026, base 1 Jan 2025. Unrounded 1.305"},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2025","assumption":"mid-term TFR (2030), baseline, EU27_2020 - DERIVED by researcher (not published by Eurostat at EU level)","value":1.36,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/proj_25naasfr","notes":"DERIVED by me (EU value not published): pooled ASFR x female exposure, Eurostat proj_25naasfr + proj_25np, 27 MS; method reproduces AR2021/AR2024 EU TFRs within 0.01. Released 16 Apr 2026, base 1 Jan 2025. Unrounded 1.363"},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2025","assumption":"TFR 2050, baseline, EU27_2020 - DERIVED by researcher (not published by Eurostat at EU level)","value":1.48,"target_year":2050,"source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/proj_25naasfr","notes":"DERIVED by me (EU value not published): pooled ASFR x female exposure, Eurostat proj_25naasfr + proj_25np, 27 MS; method reproduces AR2021/AR2024 EU TFRs within 0.01. Released 16 Apr 2026, base 1 Jan 2025. Unrounded 1.475"},{"country":"EU","producer":"Eurostat","vintage":"EUROPOP2025","assumption":"long-term TFR (2070; horizon 2100), baseline, EU27_2020 - DERIVED by researcher (not published by Eurostat at EU level)","value":1.51,"target_year":2070,"source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/proj_25naasfr","notes":"DERIVED by me (EU value not published): pooled ASFR x female exposure, Eurostat proj_25naasfr + proj_25np, 27 MS; method reproduces AR2021/AR2024 EU TFRs within 0.01. Released 16 Apr 2026, base 1 Jan 2025. Unrounded 1.512"},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"12th coordinated projection (12. kBv, published 18 Nov 2009, base 31.12.2008)","assumption":"base-year TFR (observed 2008, starting point)","value":1.38,"target_year":2008,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/bevoelkerung-deutschland-2060-presse-5124204099004.pdf?__blob=publicationFile","notes":"Begleitmaterial zur Pressekonferenz 18.11.2009, Tabelle 5: 2008 Frauen insgesamt 1,38 Kinder je Frau."},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"12th coordinated projection (12. kBv, published 18 Nov 2009, base 31.12.2008)","assumption":"G1 main assumption (Hauptannahme) TFR: approximately constant","value":1.4,"target_year":2060,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/bevoelkerung-deutschland-2060-presse-5124204099004.pdf?__blob=publicationFile","notes":"Quote: 'Die zusammengefasste Geburtenziffer bleibt auf dem Niveau von 1,4 Kindern je Frau' (trends to 2020, then constant 2021-2060). Used in main variants 1-W1/1-W2."},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"12th coordinated projection (12. kBv, published 18 Nov 2009, base 31.12.2008)","assumption":"G2 TFR: slight rise (\"leichter Anstieg\")","value":1.6,"target_year":2025,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/bevoelkerung-deutschland-2060-presse-5124204099004.pdf?__blob=publicationFile","notes":"Quote: 'allmähliche Zunahme der Geburtenhäufigkeit auf 1,6 Kinder je Frau bis 2025', constant 2026-2060 (variant 3-W2 'relativ junge Bevölkerung')."},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"12th coordinated projection (12. kBv, published 18 Nov 2009, base 31.12.2008)","assumption":"G3 TFR: long-term decline","value":1.2,"target_year":2060,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/bevoelkerung-deutschland-2060-presse-5124204099004.pdf?__blob=publicationFile","notes":"Quote: 'allmählichen Rückgang der Geburtenhäufigkeit bis zum Jahr 2060 auf 1,2 Kinder je Frau' (variant 6-W1 'relativ alte Bevölkerung')."},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"13th coordinated projection (13. kBv, published 28 Apr 2015, base 31.12.2013)","assumption":"base-year TFR (2013, starting point)","value":1.4,"target_year":2013,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/bevoelkerung-deutschland-2060-presse-5124204159004.pdf?__blob=publicationFile","notes":"Übersicht 1: 'Ausgangsbasis 2013: 1,4' Kinder je Frau (zusammengefasste Geburtenziffer)."},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"13th coordinated projection (13. kBv, published 28 Apr 2015, base 31.12.2013)","assumption":"G1 TFR: approximately constant (main variants 1 and 2)","value":1.4,"target_year":2060,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/bevoelkerung-deutschland-2060-presse-5124204159004.pdf?__blob=publicationFile","notes":"Übersicht 1: 'Annahme G1 Annähernde Konstanz 1,4'; text: 'bewegt sich dabei weiterhin auf dem Niveau von 1,4 Kindern je Frau'. Constant to 2060."},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"13th coordinated projection (13. kBv, published 28 Apr 2015, base 31.12.2013)","assumption":"G2 TFR: slight rise","value":1.6,"target_year":2028,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/bevoelkerung-deutschland-2060-presse-5124204159004.pdf?__blob=publicationFile","notes":"Übersicht 1: 'Anstieg auf 1,6 bis 2028, danach konstant'. Used in variant 6 'relativ junge Bevölkerung' (G2-L1-W2)."},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"14th coordinated projection (14. kBv, published 27 Jun 2019, base 31.12.2018)","assumption":"base-year TFR (latest observed 2017, starting point)","value":1.57,"target_year":2017,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/bevoelkerung-deutschland-2060-5124202199014.pdf?__blob=publicationFile","notes":"Annahmen table: '2017 1,57 / 1,5 Kinder je Frau' (annual TFR / completed cohort fertility)."},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"14th coordinated projection (14. kBv, published 27 Jun 2019, base 31.12.2018)","assumption":"G1 TFR: decline to long-term level","value":1.43,"target_year":2060,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2019/Bevoelkerung/pressebroschuere-bevoelkerung.pdf?__blob=publicationFile","notes":"Quote: 'geht allmählich von 1,57 Kindern je Frau (2017) auf 1,43 Kinder je Frau ... zurück'; target table headed 'Bis 2060'."},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"14th coordinated projection (14. kBv, published 27 Jun 2019, base 31.12.2018)","assumption":"G2 TFR: stabilisation (moderate; main variants 1-3)","value":1.55,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2019/Bevoelkerung/pressebroschuere-bevoelkerung.pdf?__blob=publicationFile","notes":"Quote: 'Die zusammengefasste Geburtenziffer stabilisiert sich bei 1,55 Kindern je Frau.' No explicit year (essentially flat from 2017 level 1.57); completed fertility 1.6."},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"14th coordinated projection (14. kBv, published 27 Jun 2019, base 31.12.2018)","assumption":"G3 TFR: rise","value":1.73,"target_year":2038,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2019/Bevoelkerung/pressebroschuere-bevoelkerung.pdf?__blob=publicationFile","notes":"Quote: 'steigt in den nächsten 20 Jahren auf 1,73 Kinder je Frau ... und bleibt dann auf diesem Niveau.' target_year ~2038 is my reading of 'next 20 years' from 2018."},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"15th coordinated projection (15. kBv, published 2 Dec 2022, base 31.12.2021)","assumption":"base-year TFR (2021, starting point)","value":1.58,"target_year":2021,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/statistischer-bericht-bvb-deutschland-2070-5124202219005.xlsx?__blob=publicationFile&v=4","notes":"Statistischer Bericht 15. kBv, 'Informationen zur Statistik': 'Basisjahr 2021: 1,58 / 1,57 Kinder je Frau'."},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"15th coordinated projection (15. kBv, published 2 Dec 2022, base 31.12.2021)","assumption":"G1 TFR: decline, then stable low","value":1.44,"target_year":2032,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/statistischer-bericht-bvb-deutschland-2070-5124202219005.xlsx?__blob=publicationFile&v=4","notes":"Quote: 'Annahme G1: Rückgang bis 2032, danach stabil niedrig. 1,44 / 1,4 Kinder je Frau' (annual TFR / completed fertility)."},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"15th coordinated projection (15. kBv, published 2 Dec 2022, base 31.12.2021)","assumption":"G2 TFR: dip in 2022, return to moderate level (main variant 2 G2-L2-W2)","value":1.55,"target_year":2032,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/statistischer-bericht-bvb-deutschland-2070-5124202219005.xlsx?__blob=publicationFile&v=4","notes":"Quote: 'Rückgang 2022, danach Anstieg bis 2032 auf das moderate Niveau von 1,55 Kindern je Frau (G2)'."},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"15th coordinated projection (15. kBv, published 2 Dec 2022, base 31.12.2021)","assumption":"G3 TFR: dip in 2022, then rise to high level","value":1.67,"target_year":2032,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/statistischer-bericht-bvb-deutschland-2070-5124202219005.xlsx?__blob=publicationFile&v=4","notes":"Quote: 'Rückgang in 2022, danach Anstieg bis 2032 auf das hohe Niveau von 1,67 Kindern je Frau (G3)'."},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"16th coordinated projection (16. kBv, published 11 Dec 2025, base 31.12.2024) [beyond requested scope]","assumption":"base-year TFR (2024, starting point)","value":1.35,"target_year":2024,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/statistischer-bericht-bvb-deutschland-2070-5124202249005.xlsx?__blob=publicationFile&v=3","notes":"Statistischer Bericht 16. kBv: 'Geburtenhäufigkeit 2024: Geburtenziffer: 1,35 Kinder je Frau'."},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"16th coordinated projection (16. kBv, published 11 Dec 2025, base 31.12.2024) [beyond requested scope]","assumption":"G1 TFR: decline to 2026, then stagnation at low level","value":1.29,"target_year":2070,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/annahmen_ergebnisse_16te_kBv.html","notes":"Quote: 'kurzfristigen Sinken und anschließender Stagnation der zusammengefassten Geburtenziffer bei 1,29 Kindern je Frau'. Value shown for 2070."},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"16th coordinated projection (16. kBv, published 11 Dec 2025, base 31.12.2024) [beyond requested scope]","assumption":"G2 TFR: decline to 2026, slow recovery (main variant 2 G2-L2-W2)","value":1.47,"target_year":2070,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/annahmen_ergebnisse_16te_kBv.html","notes":"Quote: 'steigt sie allmählich bis Ende der 2030er-Jahre auf 1,45 Kinder je Frau und im weiteren Verlauf auf 1,47'."},{"country":"DEU","producer":"Destatis","vintage":"16th coordinated projection (16. kBv, published 11 Dec 2025, base 31.12.2024) [beyond requested scope]","assumption":"G3 TFR: 1.32 in 2025, rise to 1.55 by 2030, later 1.65","value":1.65,"target_year":2070,"source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/annahmen_ergebnisse_16te_kBv.html","notes":"Quote: 'zunächst im Jahr 2025 auf 1,32 Kinder je Frau sinken. Anschließend ... bis 2030 auf 1,55 und im weiteren Verlauf auf 1,65'."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2011 (published 28 Dec 2011)","assumption":"TFR central scenario, base year","value":1.42,"target_year":2011,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/futuro-demografico.pdf","notes":"Prospetto 6, ITALIA: 2011 1,42 (1,40 ; 1,44). Ranges in brackets = low/high scenarios (\"intervalli di variazione\")."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2011 (published 28 Dec 2011)","assumption":"TFR central scenario, medium term","value":1.49,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/futuro-demografico.pdf","notes":"Prospetto 6, ITALIA: 2030 1,49 (1,37 ; 1,60)."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2011 (published 28 Dec 2011)","assumption":"TFR low scenario, medium term","value":1.37,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/futuro-demografico.pdf","notes":"Prospetto 6, ITALIA: 2030 1,49 (1,37 ; 1,60); lower bound = scenario basso."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2011 (published 28 Dec 2011)","assumption":"TFR high scenario, medium term","value":1.6,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/futuro-demografico.pdf","notes":"Prospetto 6, ITALIA: 2030 1,49 (1,37 ; 1,60); upper bound = scenario alto."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2011 (published 28 Dec 2011)","assumption":"TFR central scenario, long-term","value":1.61,"target_year":2065,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/futuro-demografico.pdf","notes":"Prospetto 6, ITALIA: 2065 1,61 (1,38 ; 1,83)."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2011 (published 28 Dec 2011)","assumption":"TFR low scenario, long-term","value":1.38,"target_year":2065,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/futuro-demografico.pdf","notes":"Prospetto 6, ITALIA: 2065 1,61 (1,38 ; 1,83)."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2011 (published 28 Dec 2011)","assumption":"TFR high scenario, long-term","value":1.83,"target_year":2065,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/futuro-demografico.pdf","notes":"Prospetto 6, ITALIA: 2065 1,61 (1,38 ; 1,83)."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2011 (published 28 Dec 2011)","assumption":"TFR central scenario in 2025 (as restated by ISTAT in base-2016 report)","value":1.47,"target_year":2025,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/previsioni-demografiche.pdf","notes":"Base-2016 report Prospetto A2: \"Centrale 2011\", Anno 2025: 1,47 (also 2016: 1,44; 2045: 1,55; 2065: 1,61)."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2011 (published 28 Dec 2011)","assumption":"Projected live births, central scenario: average per year 2011-2065","value":517000,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/futuro-demografico.pdf","notes":"\"Le nascite non scenderebbero mai sotto la soglia delle 500 mila unità, a fronte di una media annuale ... di 517 mila unità.\" Cumulative 2011-2065: 28,5 mln (24,4-32,6)."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2016 (published 26 Apr 2017)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, base year","value":1.34,"target_year":2016,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/previsioni-demografiche.pdf","notes":"Prospetto 7, Italia 2016: 1,34 [1,31 : 1,37]. Text: \"da 1,34 figli per donna nel 2016 a 1,59 entro il 2065\"."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2016 (published 26 Apr 2017)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, medium term","value":1.44,"target_year":2025,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/previsioni-demografiche.pdf","notes":"Prospetto 7, Italia 2025: 1,44 [1,31 : 1,57] (90% interval)."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2016 (published 26 Apr 2017)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, long-term","value":1.59,"target_year":2065,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/previsioni-demografiche.pdf","notes":"\"La fecondità è prevista in rialzo, da 1,34 a 1,59 figli per donna nel periodo 2016-2065\"; 90% CI 2065: 1,25-1,93."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2016 (published 26 Apr 2017)","assumption":"TFR 90% interval lower bound, long-term","value":1.25,"target_year":2065,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/previsioni-demografiche.pdf","notes":"\"L'intervallo di confidenza proiettato al 2065 ... oscilla tra 1,25 e 1,93 figli per donna.\""},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2016 (published 26 Apr 2017)","assumption":"TFR 90% interval upper bound, long-term","value":1.93,"target_year":2065,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/previsioni-demografiche.pdf","notes":"\"L'intervallo di confidenza proiettato al 2065 ... oscilla tra 1,25 e 1,93 figli per donna.\""},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2016 (published 26 Apr 2017)","assumption":"Projected live births, median scenario (stated level by 2025)","value":458000,"target_year":2025,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/previsioni-demografiche.pdf","notes":"\"Nel breve termine le nascite dovrebbero diminuire fino a 458 mila unità annue entro il 2025\". Then ~459k average mid-term, ~422k in 2055-2065."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2017 (published 3 May 2018)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, base year","value":1.34,"target_year":2017,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/previsioni_demografiche.pdf","notes":"Prospetto 7, Italia 2017: 1,34 [1,30 : 1,37]. Text: \"da 1,34 figli per donna nel 2017 a 1,59 entro il 2065\"."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2017 (published 3 May 2018)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, medium term","value":1.44,"target_year":2025,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/previsioni_demografiche.pdf","notes":"Prospetto 7, Italia 2025: 1,44 [1,31 : 1,57]."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2017 (published 3 May 2018)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, long-term","value":1.59,"target_year":2065,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/previsioni_demografiche.pdf","notes":"Prospetto 7, Italia 2065: 1,59 [1,25 : 1,93]; 2045: 1,53 [1,26 : 1,80]."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2017 (published 3 May 2018)","assumption":"Projected live births, median scenario: stated range 460-465k per year through 2040 (value = lower end)","value":460000,"target_year":2040,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/previsioni_demografiche.pdf","notes":"\"Fino al 2040 le nascite dovrebbero mantenersi costantemente in un intorno di 460-465 mila unità annue.\" No annual table published in report."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2018 (released on I.Stat/demo.istat.it Aug-Oct 2019; no press release found)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, base year","value":1.29,"target_year":2018,"source_url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20210422003429/http://demo.istat.it/previsioni2017/dati/nota_previsioni_demografiche_demo.pdf","notes":"Nota metodologica Prospetto A3: \"Mediano 2018\", Anno 2018: 1,29 (vs Mediano 2016: 1,36). Same in archived indicators CSV."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2018 (released on I.Stat/demo.istat.it Aug-Oct 2019; no press release found)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, medium term","value":1.42,"target_year":2025,"source_url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20210422003429/http://demo.istat.it/previsioni2017/dati/nota_previsioni_demografiche_demo.pdf","notes":"Prospetto A3: Mediano 2018, Anno 2025: 1,42. Archived CSV 90% interval 2025: 1,29-1,55."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2018 (released on I.Stat/demo.istat.it Aug-Oct 2019; no press release found)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, 2030","value":1.47,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20211128203459/http://demo.istat.it/previsioni2017/dati/ita-Indicatori_-_Anni_2018-2065_-_Ripartizione_Italia.csv","notes":"Archived CSV \"Numero medio di figli per donna - Anni 2018/2065\": 2030 median 1,47; 90% interval 1,29-1,64."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2018 (released on I.Stat/demo.istat.it Aug-Oct 2019; no press release found)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, long-term","value":1.59,"target_year":2065,"source_url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20211128203459/http://demo.istat.it/previsioni2017/dati/ita-Indicatori_-_Anni_2018-2065_-_Ripartizione_Italia.csv","notes":"Archived CSV: 2065 median 1,59; 90% interval 1,25-1,93. Prospetto A3: Mediano 2018, Anno 2065: 1,59."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2020 (published 26 Nov 2021)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, base year","value":1.24,"target_year":2020,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/it/files/2021/11/REPORT-PREVISIONI-DEMOGRAFICHE.pdf","notes":"Prospetto A2 (base 2018 vs 2020): \"Base 2020\", Anno 2020: 1,24. Text: fecondità \"in rialzo, da 1,24 figli per donna a 1,44\" by 2038."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2020 (published 26 Nov 2021)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, 2030","value":1.37,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/it/files/2021/11/REPORT-PREVISIONI-DEMOGRAFICHE.pdf","notes":"Prospetto A2: Base 2020, Anno 2030: 1,37 (base 2018 had 1,47)."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2020 (published 26 Nov 2021)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, 2050","value":1.5,"target_year":2050,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/it/files/2021/11/REPORT-PREVISIONI-DEMOGRAFICHE.pdf","notes":"Prospetto A2: Base 2020, Anno 2050: 1,50."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2020 (published 26 Nov 2021)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, long-term","value":1.55,"target_year":2070,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/it/files/2021/11/REPORT-PREVISIONI-DEMOGRAFICHE.pdf","notes":"\"pur prospettato in prosecuzione (fino a 1,55 figli per donna entro il 2070)\". 90% CI: \"tra 1,23 e 1,88 figli per donna entro il 2070\"."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2020 (published 26 Nov 2021)","assumption":"TFR 90% interval lower bound, long-term","value":1.23,"target_year":2070,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/it/files/2021/11/REPORT-PREVISIONI-DEMOGRAFICHE.pdf","notes":"\"L'intervallo di confidenza proiettato per la fecondità è oggettivamente alto, tra 1,23 e 1,88 figli per donna entro il 2070.\""},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2020 (published 26 Nov 2021)","assumption":"TFR 90% interval upper bound, long-term","value":1.88,"target_year":2070,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/it/files/2021/11/REPORT-PREVISIONI-DEMOGRAFICHE.pdf","notes":"Same sentence: \"tra 1,23 e 1,88 figli per donna entro il 2070\"."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2020 (published 26 Nov 2021)","assumption":"Projected live births, median scenario, 2030","value":414000,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/it/files/2021/11/REPORT-PREVISIONI-DEMOGRAFICHE.pdf","notes":"\"le nascite dovrebbero intraprendere un trend di lieve recupero, fino a 414mila nel 2030 e a un massimo di 422mila entro il 2038\"."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2021 (published 22 Sep 2022)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, base year","value":1.25,"target_year":2021,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/REPORT-PREVISIONI-DEMOGRAFICHE-2021.pdf","notes":"\"una crescita della fecondità da 1,25 figli per donna nell'anno base a 1,55 nel 2070\". Prospetto A2: Base 2021, Anno 2021: 1,25."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2021 (published 22 Sep 2022)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, 2025","value":1.32,"target_year":2025,"source_url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20221003122703/https://demo.istat.it/data/previsioni/Indicatori-Ripartizioni.zip","notes":"Archived \"ita-Indicatori_-_Anni_2021-2070_-_Ripartizione_Italia.csv\", \"Numero medio di figli per donna\": 2025 median 1,32; 90% interval 1,23-1,41."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2021 (published 22 Sep 2022)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, 2030","value":1.37,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/REPORT-PREVISIONI-DEMOGRAFICHE-2021.pdf","notes":"Prospetto A2: Base 2021, Anno 2030: 1,37. CSV 90% interval 2030: 1,22-1,53."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2021 (published 22 Sep 2022)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, long-term","value":1.55,"target_year":2070,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/REPORT-PREVISIONI-DEMOGRAFICHE-2021.pdf","notes":"Prospetto A2: Base 2021, Anno 2070: 1,55; 2050: 1,50. CSV 90% interval 2070: 1,23-1,88."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2021 (published 22 Sep 2022)","assumption":"TFR 90% interval upper bound, long-term","value":1.88,"target_year":2070,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/REPORT-PREVISIONI-DEMOGRAFICHE-2021.pdf","notes":"\"limite superiore dell'intervallo di confidenza al 90% per le nascite (scenario nel quale il numero medio di figli per donna cresce fino a 1,88 nel 2070)\"."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2021 (published 22 Sep 2022)","assumption":"Projected live births, median scenario: peak","value":424000,"target_year":2038,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/REPORT-PREVISIONI-DEMOGRAFICHE-2021.pdf","notes":"\"il massimo delle nascite conseguito risulterebbe pari a 424mila unità nel 2038\"."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2022 (published 28 Sep 2023)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, base year","value":1.24,"target_year":2022,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Previsioni-popolazione-e-famiglie.pdf","notes":"\"una crescita della fecondità da 1,24 figli per donna nell'anno base a 1,46 nel 2080\". Prospetto A2: Base 2022, Anno 2022: 1,24 (base 2021 had 1,27)."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2022 (published 28 Sep 2023)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, 2030","value":1.3,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Previsioni-popolazione-e-famiglie.pdf","notes":"Prospetto A2 (base 2021 vs 2022): Base 2022, Anno 2030: 1,30 (base 2021: 1,37)."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2022 (published 28 Sep 2023)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, 2050","value":1.38,"target_year":2050,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Previsioni-popolazione-e-famiglie.pdf","notes":"Prospetto A2: Base 2022, Anno 2050: 1,38 (base 2021: 1,50)."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2022 (published 28 Sep 2023)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, long-term","value":1.46,"target_year":2080,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Previsioni-popolazione-e-famiglie.pdf","notes":"Text: \"da 1,24 figli per donna nell'anno base a 1,46 nel 2080\"; Prospetto A2: 2070: 1,44."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2022 (published 28 Sep 2023)","assumption":"TFR 90% interval upper bound, long-term","value":1.85,"target_year":2080,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Previsioni-popolazione-e-famiglie.pdf","notes":"\"(scenario nel quale il numero medio di figli per donna cresce fino a 1,85 nel 2080)\"."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2022 (published 28 Sep 2023)","assumption":"Projected live births, median scenario: peak","value":401000,"target_year":2038,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Previsioni-popolazione-e-famiglie.pdf","notes":"\"il massimo delle nascite risulterebbe pari a 401mila unità nel 2038\". Provincial-file sum for 2038 = 401,386 (consistent)."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2023 (published 24 Jul 2024)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, base year","value":1.2,"target_year":2023,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Previsioni-popolazione-famiglie_2023.pdf","notes":"\"una crescita della fecondità da 1,20 figli per donna nel 2023 a 1,46 nel 2080\". Prospetto A2: Base 2023, Anno 2023: 1,20."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2023 (published 24 Jul 2024)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, 2024","value":1.21,"target_year":2024,"source_url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20250728220033/https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/NotaMet_previsioni_popolazione_famiglie_2025.pdf","notes":"Base-2024 Nota metodologica Prospetto A2: \"Base 2023\", Anno 2024: 1,21."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2023 (published 24 Jul 2024)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, 2030","value":1.28,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Previsioni-popolazione-famiglie_2023.pdf","notes":"Prospetto A2 (base 2022 vs 2023): Base 2023, Anno 2030: 1,28."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2023 (published 24 Jul 2024)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, long-term","value":1.46,"target_year":2080,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Previsioni-popolazione-famiglie_2023.pdf","notes":"Prospetto A2: Base 2023, 2050: 1,38; 2080: 1,46."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2023 (published 24 Jul 2024)","assumption":"TFR 90% interval upper bound, long-term","value":1.85,"target_year":2080,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Previsioni-popolazione-famiglie_2023.pdf","notes":"\"(scenario nel quale il numero medio di figli per donna cresce fino a 1,85 nel 2080)\"; intermediate \"1,6 figli per donna nel 2050\"."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2023 (published 24 Jul 2024)","assumption":"Projected live births, median scenario: peak","value":404000,"target_year":2038,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Previsioni-popolazione-famiglie_2023.pdf","notes":"\"il massimo delle nascite risulta pari a 404mila unità nel 2038\". 21 mln births 2023-2080. Annual series not recovered."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2024 (published 28 Jul 2025)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, base year","value":1.18,"target_year":2024,"source_url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20250728213204/https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Report_Previsioni-della-popolazione-residente-e-delle-famiglie_Base-Base-112024.pdf","notes":"\"una crescita della fecondità da 1,18 figli per donna nel 2024 a 1,46 nel 2080\". Report removed from istat.it; Wayback copy."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2024 (published 28 Jul 2025)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, 2025","value":1.2,"target_year":2025,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Nota-metodologica-previsioni-regionali-demografiche-famiglie.pdf","notes":"Base-2025 Nota metodologica Prospetto A2: \"Base 2024\", Anno 2025: 1,20 (Base 2025: 1,14)."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2024 (published 28 Jul 2025)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, 2030","value":1.26,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20250728220033/https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/NotaMet_previsioni_popolazione_famiglie_2025.pdf","notes":"Base-2024 Nota metodologica Prospetto A2: Base 2024, Anno 2030: 1,26 (base 2023: 1,28)."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2024 (published 28 Jul 2025)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, long-term","value":1.46,"target_year":2080,"source_url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20250728220033/https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/NotaMet_previsioni_popolazione_famiglie_2025.pdf","notes":"Prospetto A2: Base 2024, 2050: 1,38; 2080: 1,46."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2024 (published 28 Jul 2025)","assumption":"TFR 90% interval upper bound, long-term","value":1.85,"target_year":2080,"source_url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20250728213204/https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Report_Previsioni-della-popolazione-residente-e-delle-famiglie_Base-Base-112024.pdf","notes":"\"fecondità in rialzo fino a 1,85 figli per donna nel 2080, registrando un intermedio di 1,59 figli per donna nel 2050\"."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2024 (published 28 Jul 2025)","assumption":"Projected live births, median scenario: peak","value":401000,"target_year":2038,"source_url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20250728213204/https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Report_Previsioni-della-popolazione-residente-e-delle-famiglie_Base-Base-112024.pdf","notes":"\"il massimo delle nascite risulta pari a 401mila unità nel 2038\". Provincial-file sum 2038 = 401,153."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2025 (published 31 Aug 2026)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, base year","value":1.14,"target_year":2025,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Nota-metodologica-previsioni-regionali-demografiche-famiglie.pdf","notes":"Prospetto A2: \"Base 2025\", Anno 2025: 1,14 (Base 2024: 1,20). demo.istat.it CSV 90% interval 2025: 1,13-1,15."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2025 (published 31 Aug 2026)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, 2030","value":1.16,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Nota-metodologica-previsioni-regionali-demografiche-famiglie.pdf","notes":"Prospetto A2: Base 2025, Anno 2030: 1,16 (Base 2024: 1,26). CSV 90% interval 2030: 1,10-1,21."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2025 (published 31 Aug 2026)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, 2050","value":1.25,"target_year":2050,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Nota-metodologica-previsioni-regionali-demografiche-famiglie.pdf","notes":"Prospetto A2: Base 2025, Anno 2050: 1,25 (Base 2024: 1,38)."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2025 (published 31 Aug 2026)","assumption":"TFR median scenario, long-term","value":1.3,"target_year":2080,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Nota-metodologica-previsioni-regionali-demografiche-famiglie.pdf","notes":"Prospetto A2: Base 2025, Anno 2080: 1,30 (Base 2024: 1,46). CSV 90% interval 2080: 0,95-1,66."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2025 (published 31 Aug 2026)","assumption":"TFR 90% interval lower bound, long-term","value":0.95,"target_year":2080,"source_url":"https://demo.istat.it/data/previsioni/Indicatori-Ripartizioni.zip","notes":"\"it-Indicatori_-_Anni_2025-2080_-_Ripartizione_Italia.csv\", \"Numero medio di figli per donna\", 2080: 0,95 (5th pct) / 1,30 median / 1,66 (95th pct)."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2025 (published 31 Aug 2026)","assumption":"TFR 90% interval upper bound, long-term","value":1.66,"target_year":2080,"source_url":"https://demo.istat.it/data/previsioni/Indicatori-Ripartizioni.zip","notes":"Same CSV row 2080: 0,95;1,04;1,16;1,3;1,46;1,58;1,66."},{"country":"ITA","producer":"ISTAT","vintage":"base 1.1.2025 (published 31 Aug 2026)","assumption":"Projected live births, median scenario, 2030","value":355000,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Previsioni-popolazione-residente-famiglie-forze-lavoro.pdf","notes":"\"le nascite si mantengono su livelli stabili fino al 2030 (355mila nati annui). Si scende poi a 335mila nel 2050 e a 281mila nel 2080.\""},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2013 to 2063 (HTML released 17 Sep 2014; PDF 26 May 2015)","assumption":"TFR, low fertility assumption, long-term (held constant to 2063)","value":1.53,"target_year":2021,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/2014001/chap03-eng.htm","notes":"Quote: \"In the low assumption, the PTFR decreases from 1.61 children per woman in 2011 to 1.53 from 2021 onward.\" ASFRs extrapolated 2012-2021 then frozen. No separate 2015 edition: the 2015 date is the PDF release (26 May 2015) of this edition."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2013 to 2063 (HTML released 17 Sep 2014; PDF 26 May 2015)","assumption":"TFR, medium fertility assumption, long-term (held constant to 2063)","value":1.67,"target_year":2021,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/2014001/chap03-eng.htm","notes":"Quote: \"the period total fertility rate increases slightly from the most recently observed level of 1.61 children per woman in 2011 to 1.67 in 2021\". Table 3.1b: 1.65 in 2018, 1.67 in 2038."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2013 to 2063 (HTML released 17 Sep 2014; PDF 26 May 2015)","assumption":"TFR, high fertility assumption, long-term (held constant to 2063)","value":1.88,"target_year":2021,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/2014001/chap03-eng.htm","notes":"Quote: \"In the high assumption, the PTFR increases from 1.61 children per woman in 2011 to 1.88 in 2021, after which it holds constant.\" Table 3.1b: 1.80 in 2018."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2018 to 2068 (HTML released 17 Sep 2019; PDF 10 Jul 2020)","assumption":"TFR, low fertility assumption, long-term target (constant after 2043)","value":1.4,"target_year":2043,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/2019001/chap03-eng.htm","notes":"Table 3.2 Canada: 2017 observed 1.54; 2043 low 1.40 / medium 1.59 / high 1.79. Quote: \"the 10th percentile to obtain a low target (1.40)\". Target for 2042/2043, from 2018 expert survey; same values in 91-520-X2019001 Table 1.1."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2018 to 2068 (HTML released 17 Sep 2019; PDF 10 Jul 2020)","assumption":"TFR, medium fertility assumption, long-term target (constant after 2043)","value":1.59,"target_year":2043,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/2019001/chap03-eng.htm","notes":"Quote: \"the median of the aggregate distribution of the PTFR in 2043 was used to obtain a medium target for Canada (1.59 children per woman)\". Near-term path: provincial log-interpolation; no Canada-level annual path published."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2018 to 2068 (HTML released 17 Sep 2019; PDF 10 Jul 2020)","assumption":"TFR, high fertility assumption, long-term target (constant after 2043)","value":1.79,"target_year":2043,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/2019001/chap03-eng.htm","notes":"Quote: \"the 90th percentile to obtain a high target (1.79)\". Table 3.2, Canada row, projected 2043."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2021 to 2068 (HTML released 22 Aug 2022; PDF 27 Apr 2023)","assumption":"TFR, low fertility assumption, long-term target","value":1.4,"target_year":2043,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2022001-eng.htm","notes":"Technical report Table 2.2 (2042/2043): LG 1.40, M1-M6 1.59, HG 1.79. Quote: \"the PTFR will decrease to 1.28 in 2027/2028 and then rise to reach the target of 1.40 set in 2042/2043\"."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2021 to 2068 (HTML released 22 Aug 2022; PDF 27 Apr 2023)","assumption":"TFR, low fertility assumption, near-term trough","value":1.28,"target_year":2028,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2022001-eng.htm","notes":"Projection year 2027/2028 (target_year = end year). Same quote as low long-term item; starting point 1.40 estimated for 2020/2021. Section 3.1 / Table 3 of 91-620-X2022001 (HTML; PDF identical)."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2021 to 2068 (HTML released 22 Aug 2022; PDF 27 Apr 2023)","assumption":"TFR, medium fertility assumption, long-term target","value":1.59,"target_year":2043,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2022001-eng.htm","notes":"Quote: \"Canada's PTFR will reach 1.39 in 2021/2022, decrease slightly to 1.37 in 2024/2025, and then climb steadily to reach the target of 1.59 in 2042/2043.\""},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2021 to 2068 (HTML released 22 Aug 2022; PDF 27 Apr 2023)","assumption":"TFR, medium fertility assumption, near-term (2021/2022, dipping to 1.37 in 2024/2025)","value":1.39,"target_year":2022,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2022001-eng.htm","notes":"Projection year 2021/2022 (target_year = end year); 1.37 in 2024/2025 per same quote. Observed TFR used: 1.40 in 2020 (Table 3.1.1, preliminary)."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2021 to 2068 (HTML released 22 Aug 2022; PDF 27 Apr 2023)","assumption":"TFR, high fertility assumption, long-term target","value":1.79,"target_year":2043,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2022001-eng.htm","notes":"Quote: \"substantial rebound in fertility from 2021/2022 with a PTFR of 1.49, and a constant increase towards a target set at 1.79 in 2042/2043\"."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2021 to 2068 (HTML released 22 Aug 2022; PDF 27 Apr 2023)","assumption":"TFR, high fertility assumption, near-term (2021/2022)","value":1.49,"target_year":2022,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2022001-eng.htm","notes":"Projection year 2021/2022 (target_year = end year). Same quote as high long-term item."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2023 to 2073 (released 24 Jun 2024)","assumption":"TFR, low fertility assumption, long-term target (constant to 2073)","value":1.15,"target_year":2048,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2024001-eng.htm","notes":"Table 4.2.1 Canada: 2022 observed 1.33; 2028 1.13/1.24/1.36; 2048 1.15/1.37/1.61 (low/medium/high). Quote: \"based on the 10th and 90th percentiles of the aggregated probability distribution representing the expert opinions (1.15 and 1.61 children per woman, respectively)\"."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2023 to 2073 (released 24 Jun 2024)","assumption":"TFR, low fertility assumption, short-term target","value":1.13,"target_year":2028,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2024001-eng.htm","notes":"Table 4.2.1 / Table 3.2 (2027/2028): low 1.13. Quote: \"PTFR targets for year 2028 at the national, provincial and territorial levels are first calculated using double exponential smoothing models with damped trend\"."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2023 to 2073 (released 24 Jun 2024)","assumption":"TFR, medium fertility assumption, long-term target (constant to 2073)","value":1.37,"target_year":2048,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2024001-eng.htm","notes":"Quote: \"A target of 1.37 children per woman was set for the medium assumption based on the median of this distribution.\" Table 3.2: 1.37 in 2047/2048 and 2072/2073."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2023 to 2073 (released 24 Jun 2024)","assumption":"TFR, medium fertility assumption, short-term target","value":1.24,"target_year":2028,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2024001-eng.htm","notes":"Table 4.2.1 Canada, projected 2028 medium 1.24 (Table 3.2 labels it 2027/2028). Holt damped-trend model on 1998-2022 data."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2023 to 2073 (released 24 Jun 2024)","assumption":"TFR, high fertility assumption, long-term target (constant to 2073)","value":1.61,"target_year":2048,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2024001-eng.htm","notes":"Table 4.2.1 Canada, projected 2048 high 1.61 (90th percentile of expert distribution)."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2023 to 2073 (released 24 Jun 2024)","assumption":"TFR, high fertility assumption, short-term target","value":1.36,"target_year":2028,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2024001-eng.htm","notes":"Table 4.2.1 Canada, projected 2028 high 1.36 (Table 3.2: 2027/2028)."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2024 to 2074 (released 21 Jan 2025)","assumption":"TFR of permanent residents (PR), low assumption, long-term target","value":1.18,"target_year":2049,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2025001-eng.htm","notes":"Quote: \"This results in PR-specific targets of 1.41 in the medium fertility assumption, 1.18 in the low fertility assumption and 1.66 in the high fertility assumption.\" Whole-population targets (1.15/1.37/1.61) carried over from 2023 edition."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2024 to 2074 (released 21 Jan 2025)","assumption":"TFR of permanent residents (PR), low assumption, short-term target","value":1.14,"target_year":2029,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2025001-eng.htm","notes":"Table 4.2.1 Canada PR: historic 2023 1.30 (total pop. 1.26); projected 2028/2029 low 1.14 / medium 1.25 / high 1.37 (target_year = end year)."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2024 to 2074 (released 21 Jan 2025)","assumption":"TFR of permanent residents (PR), medium assumption, long-term target","value":1.41,"target_year":2049,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2025001-eng.htm","notes":"Table 4.2.1 Canada PR, projected 2048/2049 medium 1.41; constant 2049-2074. PR-only rate; not directly comparable with total-population TFR."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2024 to 2074 (released 21 Jan 2025)","assumption":"TFR of permanent residents (PR), medium assumption, short-term target","value":1.25,"target_year":2029,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2025001-eng.htm","notes":"Table 4.2.1 Canada PR, projected 2028/2029 medium 1.25 (Holt damped-trend model on PR series 1999-2023)."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2024 to 2074 (released 21 Jan 2025)","assumption":"TFR of permanent residents (PR), high assumption, long-term target","value":1.66,"target_year":2049,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2025001-eng.htm","notes":"Table 4.2.1 Canada PR, projected 2048/2049 high 1.66."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2024 to 2074 (released 21 Jan 2025)","assumption":"TFR of permanent residents (PR), high assumption, short-term target","value":1.37,"target_year":2029,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2025001-eng.htm","notes":"Table 4.2.1 Canada PR, projected 2028/2029 high 1.37."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2024 to 2074 (released 21 Jan 2025)","assumption":"TFR of non-permanent residents (NPR), all scenarios, all years","value":1.06,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-620-x/91-620-x2025001-eng.htm","notes":"Table 4.2.1 Canada NPR projected (all years) 1.06 (Table 3.2 summary shows 1.07). Average of 2011 NHS, 2016 and 2021 census own-children estimates."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2025 to 2075 (released 27 Jan 2026; catalogue 17-20-0003, latest edition as of Oct 2026)","assumption":"TFR of permanent population (PP), low assumption, long-term target","value":1.09,"target_year":2050,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/17-20-0003/172000032026002-eng.htm","notes":"Quote: \"The low and high fertility assumptions for the PP produce TFRs of 1.09 and 1.55 children per woman, respectively\". Table 4.2: 2049/2050 and 2074/2075 LG 1.09."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2025 to 2075 (released 27 Jan 2026; catalogue 17-20-0003, latest edition as of Oct 2026)","assumption":"TFR of permanent population (PP), low assumption, short-term target","value":1.12,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/17-20-0003/172000032026002-eng.htm","notes":"Table 5.2.1 Canada PP: historic 2024 1.30 (total pop. 1.25); projected 2029/2030 low 1.12 / medium 1.24 / high 1.36 (target_year = end year)."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2025 to 2075 (released 27 Jan 2026; catalogue 17-20-0003, latest edition as of Oct 2026)","assumption":"TFR of permanent population (PP), medium assumption, long-term target","value":1.32,"target_year":2050,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/17-20-0003/172000032026002-eng.htm","notes":"Quote: \"The medium assumption produces a TFR of 1.32 children per woman in 2050\". PP-only rate; constant 2050-2075."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2025 to 2075 (released 27 Jan 2026; catalogue 17-20-0003, latest edition as of Oct 2026)","assumption":"TFR of permanent population (PP), medium assumption, short-term target","value":1.24,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/17-20-0003/172000032026002-eng.htm","notes":"Table 5.2.1 Canada PP projected 2029/2030 medium 1.24 (Holt damped-trend time-series model)."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2025 to 2075 (released 27 Jan 2026; catalogue 17-20-0003, latest edition as of Oct 2026)","assumption":"TFR of permanent population (PP), high assumption, long-term target","value":1.55,"target_year":2050,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/17-20-0003/172000032026002-eng.htm","notes":"Table 5.2.1 Canada PP projected 2049/2050 high 1.55 (90th percentile of expert distribution, converted to PP basis)."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2025 to 2075 (released 27 Jan 2026; catalogue 17-20-0003, latest edition as of Oct 2026)","assumption":"TFR of permanent population (PP), high assumption, short-term target","value":1.36,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/17-20-0003/172000032026002-eng.htm","notes":"Table 5.2.1 Canada PP projected 2029/2030 high 1.36."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2025 to 2075 (released 27 Jan 2026; catalogue 17-20-0003, latest edition as of Oct 2026)","assumption":"TFR of non-permanent residents (NPR), all scenarios, all years","value":1.06,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/17-20-0003/172000032026002-eng.htm","notes":"Table 4.2 and Table 5.2.1: NPR 1.06 in all scenarios and years."},{"country":"CAN","producer":"Statistics Canada","vintage":"2025 to 2075 (released 27 Jan 2026; catalogue 17-20-0003, latest edition as of Oct 2026)","assumption":"TFR, whole population, expert-elicited median for 2050 (basis of medium target)","value":1.27,"target_year":2050,"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/17-20-0003/172000032026002-eng.htm","notes":"Quote: \"In the aggregate distribution, there is an 80% probability that the value lies between 1.05 and 1.49. The median of the distribution is 1.27.\" 2025 Survey, 19 experts."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2002 Intergenerational Report (as reported in IGR 2015 Table C.1 / IGR 2021 Table A2.1.1)","assumption":"TFR, long-run assumption","value":1.6,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/2015_IGR.pdf","notes":"IGR 2015 Table C.1 row \"IGR 1 (2002) 1.6\"; IGR 2023 Table A6.1: 2002 IGR estimate of TFR for 2021-22 was 1.63 vs actual 1.69 (financial year). Original 2002 report not opened."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2007 Intergenerational Report (as reported in IGR 2010 Table D.2)","assumption":"TFR, long-run assumption","value":1.7,"target_year":2047,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/IGR_2010.pdf","notes":"IGR 2010 Table D.2 (source: IGR 2007): 1.82 (2010), 1.76 (2020), 1.73 (2030), 1.71 (2040), 1.70 (2047). Quote: \"In IGR 2007, the total fertility rate was projected to fall to 1.7 by 2047\". Original not opened."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2010 Intergenerational Report \"Australia to 2050\" (January 2010)","assumption":"TFR, base case, long-run assumption (constant thereafter)","value":1.9,"target_year":2013,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/IGR_2010.pdf","notes":"Quote: \"This IGR projects the TFR to fall slightly to exactly 1.9 by 2013 and stay at that level for the remainder of the projection period.\" Table A2: 1.95 in 2010. FY/calendar basis not stated."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2010 Intergenerational Report \"Australia to 2050\" (January 2010)","assumption":"TFR, lower sensitivity case","value":1.7,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/IGR_2010.pdf","notes":"Table B1 (Appendix B), row Fertility (total fertility rate): base case 1.9, lower \"Constant at 1.7\", higher \"Constant at 2.1\"."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2010 Intergenerational Report \"Australia to 2050\" (January 2010)","assumption":"TFR, higher sensitivity case","value":2.1,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/IGR_2010.pdf","notes":"Table B1 (Appendix B): higher case \"Constant at 2.1\"."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2015 Intergenerational Report \"Australia in 2055\" (March 2015)","assumption":"TFR, central case, long-run assumption (constant)","value":1.9,"target_year":2015,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/2015_IGR.pdf","notes":"Quote: \"This report assumes that the total fertility rate remains at 1.9 over the next 40 years\". Held at the 2013 level from FY 2014-15 (target_year) to 2054-55 (Table A.2)."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2015 Intergenerational Report \"Australia in 2055\" (March 2015)","assumption":"TFR, low fertility sensitivity","value":1.7,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/2015_IGR.pdf","notes":"Table 1.4 (sensitivity analysis) low fertility column: TFR 1.7 births per woman; Table B.1 row Fertility (total fertility rate): lower 1.7, proposed policy 1.9, higher 2.1."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2015 Intergenerational Report \"Australia in 2055\" (March 2015)","assumption":"TFR, high fertility sensitivity","value":2.1,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/2015_IGR.pdf","notes":"Table 1.4 (sensitivity analysis) high fertility column: TFR 2.1 births per woman."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2021 Intergenerational Report (28 Jun 2021)","assumption":"TFR, long-run assumption","value":1.62,"target_year":2031,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-06/p2021_182464.pdf","notes":"Financial years. Quote: \"before gradually declining to 1.62 babies per woman by 2030-31.\" and \"The fertility rate is then assumed to remain at 1.62 babies per woman until 2060-61.\" target_year = 2030-31."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2021 Intergenerational Report (28 Jun 2021)","assumption":"TFR, near-term COVID trough","value":1.58,"target_year":2022,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-06/p2021_182464.pdf","notes":"FY 2021-22. Quote: \"The total fertility rate is forecast to fall from 1.65 babies per woman in 2019-20 to 1.58 babies per woman in 2021-22\". Source of path: McDonald (2020)."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2021 Intergenerational Report (28 Jun 2021)","assumption":"TFR, near-term recuperation peak","value":1.69,"target_year":2024,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-06/p2021_182464.pdf","notes":"FY 2023-24. Quote: \"In 2023-24 the total fertility rate is assumed to temporarily rise to 1.69 babies per woman as 80 per cent of the delayed births occur\"."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2023 Intergenerational Report (24 Aug 2023)","assumption":"TFR, baseline long-run assumption","value":1.62,"target_year":2031,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-08/p2023-435150.pdf","notes":"FY. Quote: \"Australia’s total fertility rate is expected to decline further from 1.66 babies per woman in 2022–23, before stabilising at 1.62 babies per woman from 2030–31.\" Constant to 2062-63."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2023 Intergenerational Report (24 Aug 2023)","assumption":"TFR, near-term (first projection year)","value":1.66,"target_year":2023,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-08/p2023-435150.pdf","notes":"FY 2022-23 (Table A1.1: 1.66 in 2022-23; 1.62 in 2032-33 onward). Chart 2.8 data: 1.66 in 2023-24, 1.65 in 2024-25."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2023 Intergenerational Report (24 Aug 2023)","assumption":"TFR, lower population sensitivity (long-run)","value":1.52,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-08/p2023-435150.pdf","notes":"Table A4.1 row Long-run total fertility rate (babies per woman): baseline 1.62, lower 1.52, higher 1.72. Year of convergence not stated."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2023 Intergenerational Report (24 Aug 2023)","assumption":"TFR, higher population sensitivity (long-run)","value":1.72,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-08/p2023-435150.pdf","notes":"Quote: \"with the total fertility rate assumed to converge to a higher long-run assumption of 1.72 babies per woman\". Combined with NOM +50,000 from 2031-32."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2026 Intergenerational Report (21 Sep 2026)","assumption":"TFR, baseline long-run assumption","value":1.34,"target_year":2066,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-09/p2026-797917.pdf","notes":"FY 2065-66. Quote: \"These projections lower the long-term total fertility rate assumption to 1.34 births per woman by 2065–66\". ANU-based long-run projection from 2043-44."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2026 Intergenerational Report (21 Sep 2026)","assumption":"TFR, near-term (first projection year)","value":1.44,"target_year":2026,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-09/p2026-797917.pdf","notes":"FY 2025-26. Table A2.1: 1.44 (2025-26), 1.47 (2035-36), 1.41 (2045-46), 1.37 (2055-56), 1.34 (2065-66). Near-term uses Medicare pregnancy-scan leading indicator."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2026 Intergenerational Report (21 Sep 2026)","assumption":"TFR, medium-term peak","value":1.5,"target_year":2031,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-09/p2026-797917.pdf","notes":"FY 2030-31. Quote: \"The TFR is projected to reach 1.5 children per woman in 2030–31 before falling to 1.34 by 2065–66.\""},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2026 Intergenerational Report (21 Sep 2026)","assumption":"TFR, lower population sensitivity (long-run)","value":1.24,"target_year":2066,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-09/p2026-797917.pdf","notes":"Box 8.1: \"the long-run fertility rate falls to 1.24 births per woman by 2065–66\" (with NOM 50,000 lower from 2036-37)."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Australian Treasury","vintage":"2026 Intergenerational Report (21 Sep 2026)","assumption":"TFR, higher population sensitivity (long-run)","value":1.44,"target_year":2066,"source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-09/p2026-797917.pdf","notes":"Box 8.1: \"the long-run fertility rate increases to 1.44 births per woman by 2065–66\" (with NOM 50,000 higher from 2036-37)."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2020 Population Statement (December 2020)","assumption":"TFR, central scenario, long-run","value":1.62,"target_year":2031,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2021-09/population_statement_2020.pdf","notes":"FY. Quote: \"From then on, the total fertility rate is assumed to decline to and then stabilise at 1.62 babies per woman by 2030-31.\" Based on McDonald (2020)."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2020 Population Statement (December 2020)","assumption":"TFR, central scenario, near-term COVID trough","value":1.58,"target_year":2022,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2021-09/population_statement_2020.pdf","notes":"FY 2021-22. Quote: \"the total fertility rate falls from 1.69 babies per woman in 2019-20 to 1.58 in 2021-22\"."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2020 Population Statement (December 2020)","assumption":"TFR, central scenario, recuperation peak","value":1.69,"target_year":2024,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2021-09/population_statement_2020.pdf","notes":"FY 2023-24. Quote: \"It is then assumed to rise to 1.69 by 2023-24, as most families are assumed to subsequently have the babies they delayed.\""},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2020 Population Statement (December 2020)","assumption":"TFR, pre-COVID-19 scenario, long-run","value":1.62,"target_year":2031,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2021-09/population_statement_2020.pdf","notes":"Table 4: \"gradually decline from 1.70 babies in 2017-18 to 1.62 babies per woman in 2030-31\". FY."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2020 Population Statement (December 2020)","assumption":"TFR, extended restrictions scenario, near-term trough","value":1.5,"target_year":2022,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2021-09/population_statement_2020.pdf","notes":"Table 4: \"fall from 1.70 babies per woman in 2017-18 to 1.50 babies per woman in 2021-22\", then 1.70 in 2023-24, then 1.62 as central case."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2021 Population Statement (December 2021; data files dated 20 Dec 2021)","assumption":"TFR, central projection, long-run","value":1.62,"target_year":2031,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2021-12/population_statement_2021.pdf","notes":"FY. Technical appendix: \"it is assumed to go to 1.62 babies per woman by 2030-31\"; body text says \"by 2031-32\"; data file shows 1.62 from 2030-31."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2021 Population Statement (December 2021; data files dated 20 Dec 2021)","assumption":"TFR, central projection, near-term","value":1.66,"target_year":2022,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2021-12/population_statement_2021.pdf","notes":"FY 2020-21 and 2021-22 = 1.66. Quote: \"The future fertility rate is assumed to decline slightly from 1.66 in 2021-22 to 1.65 by 2024-25.\""},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2022 Population Statement (data files last updated 6 Jan 2023)","assumption":"TFR, baseline scenario, long-run","value":1.62,"target_year":2031,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2023-01/population_statement_2022_0.pdf","notes":"FY. Quote: \"Australia’s total fertility rate is expected to decline slightly from 1.66 babies per woman in 2021–22 to 1.65 by 2024–25, and then fall to 1.62\"."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2022 Population Statement (data files last updated 6 Jan 2023)","assumption":"TFR, baseline scenario, near-term","value":1.66,"target_year":2022,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2023-01/population_statement_2022_0.pdf","notes":"FY 2021-22 forecast 1.66 (actual later 1.69); 1.65 by 2024-25. Same quote as baseline long-run item."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2022 Population Statement (data files last updated 6 Jan 2023)","assumption":"TFR, high fertility scenario (illustrative)","value":2.1,"target_year":2037,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2023-01/population_statement_2022_0.pdf","notes":"Box 1. Quote: \"the total fertility rate gradually increases from 1.66 babies per woman in 2021−22 to 2.1 by 2036–37\". FY 2036-37."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2022 Population Statement (data files last updated 6 Jan 2023)","assumption":"TFR, low fertility scenario (illustrative)","value":1.22,"target_year":2037,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2023-01/population_statement_2022_0.pdf","notes":"Box 1. Quote: \"the total fertility rate gradually falls from 1.66 babies per woman in 2021–22 to 1.22 by 2036–37\". FY 2036-37."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2023 Population Statement (data files last updated 22 Dec 2023)","assumption":"TFR, central projection, long-run","value":1.62,"target_year":2031,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2023-12/2023-population-statement.pdf","notes":"FY. Quote: \"The total fertility rate is assumed to gradually decline from 1.66 babies per woman in 2022–23 to 1.62 babies per woman by 2030–31\"."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2023 Population Statement (data files last updated 22 Dec 2023)","assumption":"TFR, central projection, near-term","value":1.66,"target_year":2023,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2023-12/2023-population-statement.pdf","notes":"FY 2022-23 = 1.66, chosen as 3-year average 2019-20 to 2021-22 (technical appendix). Actual 2022-23 later reported as 1.55."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2024 Population Statement (data files last updated 20 Dec 2024)","assumption":"TFR, central projection, long-run","value":1.62,"target_year":2032,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2024-12/pop-statement-2024.pdf","notes":"FY. Quote: \"The total fertility rate is projected to gradually return to and stabilise at 1.62 by 2031–32.\""},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2024 Population Statement (data files last updated 20 Dec 2024)","assumption":"TFR, central projection, near-term","value":1.45,"target_year":2025,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2024-12/pop-statement-2024.pdf","notes":"FY 2024-25. Quote: \"Australia’s fertility rate is expected to remain at record lows in 2023–24 (1.48) and 2024–25 (1.45).\""},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2024 Population Statement (data files last updated 20 Dec 2024)","assumption":"TFR, full recuperation scenario, temporary peak","value":1.7,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2024-12/pop-statement-2024.pdf","notes":"Quote: \"with the rate temporarily peaking above the long-run level of 1.62 (at 1.70 and 1.66 in the full and partial recuperation scenarios respectively)\". Peak year not stated."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2024 Population Statement (data files last updated 20 Dec 2024)","assumption":"TFR, partial recuperation scenario, temporary peak","value":1.66,"target_year":null,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2024-12/pop-statement-2024.pdf","notes":"Same quote as full recuperation item; low/structural scenario keeps recent low rate (no number given)."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2025 Population Statement (data files last updated 9 Jan 2026)","assumption":"TFR, central projection, long-run","value":1.62,"target_year":2032,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2026-03/population-statement-2025.pdf","notes":"FY. Quote: \"By 2031–32, the TFR is expected to recover to 1.62 and remain at that level in the long run.\" Data file: 1.62 in 2065-66."},{"country":"AUS","producer":"Centre for Population (Australian Treasury)","vintage":"2025 Population Statement (data files last updated 9 Jan 2026)","assumption":"TFR, central projection, near-term record low","value":1.42,"target_year":2026,"source_url":"https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2026-03/population-statement-2025.pdf","notes":"FY 2025-26. Quote: \"expected to fall to a record low of 1.42 in 2025–26\". Also \"In 2024–25, the total fertility rate is expected to fall to 1.45\"."},{"country":"RUS","producer":"Rosstat","vintage":"Rosstat forecast tables 'Обновлено 22.02.2018' (base start of 2017, horizon 2035)","assumption":"TFR medium variant, 2025","value":1.646,"target_year":2025,"source_url":"http://web.archive.org/web/20180404042824/http://www.gks.ru:80/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn6.xls","notes":"progn6.xls 'Обновлено 22.02.2018', row 2025, 'Средний вариант'."},{"country":"RUS","producer":"Rosstat","vintage":"Rosstat forecast tables 'Обновлено 22.02.2018' (base start of 2017, horizon 2035)","assumption":"TFR medium variant, 2030","value":1.717,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"http://web.archive.org/web/20180404042824/http://www.gks.ru:80/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn6.xls","notes":"progn6.xls 'Обновлено 22.02.2018', row 2030, 'Средний вариант'."},{"country":"RUS","producer":"Rosstat","vintage":"Rosstat forecast tables 'Обновлено 22.02.2018' (base start of 2017, horizon 2035)","assumption":"TFR medium variant, 2035 (horizon)","value":1.768,"target_year":2035,"source_url":"http://web.archive.org/web/20180404042824/http://www.gks.ru:80/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn6.xls","notes":"progn6.xls 'Обновлено 22.02.2018', row 2035, 'Средний вариант'."},{"country":"RUS","producer":"Rosstat","vintage":"Rosstat forecast tables 'Обновлено 22.02.2018' (base start of 2017, horizon 2035)","assumption":"Births medium variant, 2030","value":1370231,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"http://web.archive.org/web/20180304162601/http://www.gks.ru:80/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn5.xls","notes":"progn5.xls 'Обновлено 22.02.2018', 'Средний вариант прогноза', row 2030, 'родившихся'."},{"country":"RUS","producer":"Rosstat","vintage":"Rosstat forecast tables 'Обновлено 03.10.2018' (base 1.1.2018, horizon 2035)","assumption":"TFR medium variant, 2024","value":1.639,"target_year":2024,"source_url":"http://web.archive.org/web/20181008174914/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn6.xls","notes":"progn6.xls 'Обновлено 03.10.2018', row 2024, 'Средний вариант'."},{"country":"RUS","producer":"Rosstat","vintage":"Rosstat forecast tables 'Обновлено 03.10.2018' (base 1.1.2018, horizon 2035)","assumption":"TFR medium variant, 2030","value":1.665,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"http://web.archive.org/web/20181008174914/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn6.xls","notes":"progn6.xls 'Обновлено 03.10.2018', row 2030, 'Средний вариант'."},{"country":"RUS","producer":"Rosstat","vintage":"Rosstat forecast tables 'Обновлено 03.10.2018' (base 1.1.2018, horizon 2035)","assumption":"TFR medium variant, 2035 (horizon)","value":1.7,"target_year":2035,"source_url":"http://web.archive.org/web/20181008174914/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn6.xls","notes":"progn6.xls 'Обновлено 03.10.2018', row 2035, 'Средний вариант'."},{"country":"RUS","producer":"Rosstat","vintage":"Rosstat forecast tables 'Обновлено 03.10.2018' (base 1.1.2018, horizon 2035)","assumption":"Births medium variant, 2030","value":1318351,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"http://web.archive.org/web/20181221080938/http://www.gks.ru:80/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn5.xls","notes":"progn5.xls 'Обновлено 03.10.2018', 'Средний вариант прогноза', row 2030, 'родившихся'."},{"country":"RUS","producer":"Rosstat","vintage":"Rosstat forecast published 28.12.2019, bulletin 'до 2035 года' (Moscow 2020) (base 1.1.2019, horizon 2035/1.1.2036)","assumption":"TFR medium variant, 2025 (projected trough)","value":1.415,"target_year":2025,"source_url":"https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/313/document/72529","notes":"Press release 28.12.2019: 'При этом он будет снижаться до 1,415 в 2025 и начнет вновь увеличиваться с 2026 года'."},{"country":"RUS","producer":"Rosstat","vintage":"Rosstat forecast published 28.12.2019, bulletin 'до 2035 года' (Moscow 2020) (base 1.1.2019, horizon 2035/1.1.2036)","assumption":"TFR medium variant, 2030","value":1.499,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/prognoz35.rar","notes":"Bulletin sheet 2.8.1., row 'Российская Федерация', 2030 г."},{"country":"RUS","producer":"Rosstat","vintage":"Rosstat forecast published 28.12.2019, bulletin 'до 2035 года' (Moscow 2020) (base 1.1.2019, horizon 2035/1.1.2036)","assumption":"TFR medium variant, 2035 (horizon)","value":1.579,"target_year":2035,"source_url":"https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/313/document/72529","notes":"Press release: 'Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости вырастет с 1,503 по итогам 2019 года до 1,579 к 2036 году'."},{"country":"RUS","producer":"Rosstat","vintage":"Rosstat forecast published 28.12.2019, bulletin 'до 2035 года' (Moscow 2020) (base 1.1.2019, horizon 2035/1.1.2036)","assumption":"Births medium variant, 2030","value":1192088,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/prognoz35.rar","notes":"Bulletin sheet 2.2.1, row 'Российская Федерация', 2030 г. (persons)."},{"country":"RUS","producer":"Rosstat","vintage":"Rosstat forecast published 10.10.2023 (medium) / 29.12.2023 (low, high) (base 1.1.2023, horizon 2045/1.1.2046)","assumption":"TFR medium variant, 2025","value":1.332,"target_year":2025,"source_url":"https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Progn_6.xls","notes":"Progn_6.xls (29.12.2023), row 2025, 'Средний вариант'."},{"country":"RUS","producer":"Rosstat","vintage":"Rosstat forecast published 10.10.2023 (medium) / 29.12.2023 (low, high) (base 1.1.2023, horizon 2045/1.1.2046)","assumption":"TFR medium variant, 2030","value":1.473,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Progn_6.xls","notes":"Progn_6.xls (29.12.2023), row 2030, 'Средний вариант'; low 1.381, high 1.516."},{"country":"RUS","producer":"Rosstat","vintage":"Rosstat forecast published 10.10.2023 (medium) / 29.12.2023 (low, high) (base 1.1.2023, horizon 2045/1.1.2046)","assumption":"TFR medium variant, 2045 (horizon)","value":1.663,"target_year":2045,"source_url":"https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/313/document/220709","notes":"Press release 10.10.2023: 'суммарный коэффициент рождаемости составит 1,663 (число детей в расчете на одну женщину)' in 2045."},{"country":"RUS","producer":"Rosstat","vintage":"Rosstat forecast published 10.10.2023 (medium) / 29.12.2023 (low, high) (base 1.1.2023, horizon 2045/1.1.2046)","assumption":"Births medium variant, 2030","value":1181647,"target_year":2030,"source_url":"https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/prognoz45.rar","notes":"Bulletin до 2045 года, sheet '2.', row 2030, 'родившихся' (persons)."},{"country":"RUS","producer":"Government of Russia (Deputy PM T. Golikova briefing)","vintage":"statement of 27.09.2018","assumption":"TFR in 2024 assumed in government forecast","value":1.74,"target_year":2024,"source_url":"http://government.ru/news/34126/","notes":"'мы закладываем прогноз по увеличению к 2024 году суммарного коэффициента рождаемости со сложившегося в 2017 году 1,62 ... до 1,74'. Final national-project passport (Dec 2018) used 1,70."}],"targets":[{"country":"RUS","target":"Decree No. 204 of 7 May 2018 (national goals to 2024), para 5 (demography national project): 'увеличение суммарного коэффициента рождаемости до 1,7' in 2024","value":1.7,"by_year":2024,"actual":"2024 TFR = 1.400 (Rosstat, Российский статистический ежегодник 2025, табл. 4.14; VPN-2020-recalculated basis) -> missed by 0.30; recalculated TFR declined every year from 1.762 (2015) to 1.400 (2024)","source_url":"http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/43027","notes":"Verbatim: 'в 2024 году необходимо обеспечить: а) достижение следующих целей и целевых показателей: ... увеличение суммарного коэффициента рождаемости до 1,7'. Decree 474 (21.07.2020) repealed paras 1 and 16 of Decree 204 and ordered the rest to be brought into conformity; Decree 474's own goal list has no TFR indicator."},{"country":"RUS","target":"Decree No. 204 of 7 May 2018, national goal 'обеспечение устойчивого естественного роста численности населения Российской Федерации' (by 2024)","value":null,"by_year":2024,"actual":"Natural decrease in every year 2016-2024; 2024: -599.4 thous. (Rosstat 'Компоненты изменения общей численности населения', updated 25.04.2025)","source_url":"http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/43027","notes":"Non-numeric goal; this para 1 goal was repealed early by Decree 474, para 5 ('Признать утратившими силу пункты 1 и 16 Указа ... № 204'), July 2020. Actual from https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Popul%20components_1990+.xlsx (2016 -2.3; 2017 -135.8; 2018 -224.6; 2019 -317.2; 2020 -702.1; 2021 -1043.3; 2022 -594.6; 2023 -500.2; 2024 -599.4 thous.)."},{"country":"RUS","target":"National project 'Демография' passport (approved 24.12.2018): TFR path 1.6 (2018), 1.63 (2019), 1.65 (2020), 1.66 (2021), 1.68 (2022), 1.69 (2023), 1.70 (2024)","value":1.7,"by_year":2024,"actual":"Actual TFR (Rosstat, recalculated): 2019 1.477; 2020 1.474; 2021 1.470; 2022 1.416; 2023 1.410; 2024 1.400. As first published: 2019 1.504; 2020 1.505; 2021 1.505. Gap in 2024: -0.30","source_url":"http://static.government.ru/media/files/Z4OMjDgCaeohKWaA0psu6lCekd3hwx2m.pdf","notes":"Passport p.2 row 2 'увеличение суммарного коэффициента рождаемости (до 1,7 детей на 1 женщину)', base 1,62. Golikova 17.12.2018 (http://government.ru/news/35110/): 'к 2024 году суммарный коэффициент рождаемости ... должен составить 1,7'. Full path also in series rus_np_demografiya_2018_target_tfr."},{"country":"RUS","target":"Decree No. 474 of 21 July 2020 (national goals to 2030): NO fertility/TFR indicator; demographic indicator is 'обеспечение устойчивого роста численности населения Российской Федерации'","value":null,"by_year":2030,"actual":"Population declined each year 2020-2024 (Rosstat components: 2020 -577.6; 2021 -613.4; 2022 -532.7; 2023 -296.6; 2024 -30.9 thous.); national goals re-set by Decree 309 of 7 May 2024","source_url":"http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/45726","notes":"Para 2(а) lists for goal 'Сохранение населения, здоровье и благополучие людей': population growth, life expectancy 78, poverty halving, 70% sport. Searched decree text: no 'рождаемост' at all."},{"country":"RUS","target":"Decree No. 309 of 7 May 2024 (national goals to 2030/2036): 'повышение суммарного коэффициента рождаемости до 1,6 к 2030 году'","value":1.6,"by_year":2030,"actual":"Latest official TFR: 2024 = 1.400 (Rosstat yearbook 2025). 2025 TFR not published as of 2026-10-01. Rosstat 2023 medium forecast for 2030: 1.473","source_url":"http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/50542","notes":"Verbatim (para 2а): 'повышение суммарного коэффициента рождаемости до 1,6 к 2030 году и до 1,8 к 2036 году'; also annual growth of 3rd+ birth TFR."},{"country":"RUS","target":"Decree No. 309 of 7 May 2024: TFR 'до 1,8 к 2036 году'","value":1.8,"by_year":2036,"actual":"2024 = 1.400; Rosstat 2023 forecast for 2036: medium 1.599, high 1.675","source_url":"http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/50542","notes":"Same clause as above."},{"country":"RUS","target":"Unified plan to achieve national goals to 2030/2036 (approved 9 Jan 2025), indicator 1.1.а TFR for national project 'Семья': 1.443 (2025) rising 0.03/yr to 1.593 (2030), 1.8 (2035)","value":1.443,"by_year":2025,"actual":"2025 TFR not published (Rosstat withheld vital statistics after Q1 2025). 2024: plan estimate 1.413 vs Rosstat actual 1.400","source_url":"http://static.government.ru/media/files/ZsnFICpxWknEXeTfQdmcFHNei2FhcR0A.pdf","notes":"Row '1.1.а. Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости, детей на одну женщину': 2024 (оценка) 1,413; 2025 1,443; 2026 1,473; 2027 1,503; 2028 1,533; 2029 1,563; 2030 1,593; 2035 1,8; 'НП «Семья»'. See series rus_unified_plan_2025_target_tfr."},{"country":"RUS","target":"Strategy of family and demographic policy and support for large families to 2036 (Government order No. 615-р of 15 March 2025): TFR 'к 2030 году составит не менее 1,6'","value":1.6,"by_year":2030,"actual":"2024 = 1.400; 2025 not published","source_url":"http://static.government.ru/media/files/r10o4FJgcqMhYx2bGAJRxMNNS2m7pmN4.pdf","notes":"Section V: 'суммарный коэффициент рождаемости к 2030 году составит не менее 1,6, к 2036 году - не менее 1,8'; also TFR of 3rd+ births >=0.475 by 2030. Strategy text cites TFR 2023 = 1,41 and Rosstat medium forecast population 143,3 mln (2030) / 140,96 mln (2036), i.e. the 2023 edition. News: http://government.ru/news/54573/"},{"country":"RUS","target":"Strategy No. 615-р (2025): TFR 'к 2036 году - не менее 1,8'","value":1.8,"by_year":2036,"actual":"2024 = 1.400","source_url":"http://static.government.ru/media/files/r10o4FJgcqMhYx2bGAJRxMNNS2m7pmN4.pdf","notes":"Same section V."},{"country":"RUS","target":"Concept of demographic policy to 2025 (Decree No. 1351 of 9 Oct 2007, as amended 2014): 'повышение уровня рождаемости (увеличение суммарного показателя рождаемости в 1,5 раза)' by 2025","value":null,"by_year":2025,"actual":"Base year not specified in the text. If read against 2006 (TFR 1.305, Rosstat; the year before adoption) the implied level is ~1.96. Actual: peak 1.762 (2015, recalculated; 1.777 as first published), 2024 = 1.400; 2025 not published","source_url":"http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/26299","notes":"Listed among 'Основными задачами демографической политики Российской Федерации на период до 2025 года'. 2006 TFR 1.305 from Rosstat yearbook 2025 table 4.14 (also quoted in Strategy 615-р). Implied value is my arithmetic, not an official figure."},{"country":"RUS","target":"Plan for stage III (2016-2020) of the 2007 Concept (Government order No. 669-р of 14 Apr 2016): 'увеличение суммарного коэффициента рождаемости до уровня 1,87' by 2020","value":1.87,"by_year":2020,"actual":"2020 TFR = 1.505 as first published (Rosstat yearbook 2022) / 1.474 recalculated (yearbook 2025) -> missed by ~0.37-0.40","source_url":"http://government.ru/docs/22743/","notes":"Verbatim: 'По итогам реализации мероприятий плана к 2020 году предполагается ... увеличение суммарного коэффициента рождаемости до уровня 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medium","actual":787933,"projected":1183000,"deviation_pct":-33.4,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"SGP","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"33,703 vs 49,000 (-31.2%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":33703,"projected":49000,"deviation_pct":-31.2,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"CYP","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"9,766 vs 14,000 (-30.2%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":9766,"projected":14000,"deviation_pct":-30.2,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"MDA","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"23,648 vs 32,000 (-26.1%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":23648,"projected":32000,"deviation_pct":-26.1,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"THA","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"441,631 vs 582,000 (-24.1%; gap 140,369)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":441631,"projected":582000,"deviation_pct":-24.1,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"GTM","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"299,256 vs 380,000 (-21.2%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":299256,"projected":380000,"deviation_pct":-21.2,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"POL","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"251,782 vs 310,000 (-18.8%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":251782,"projected":310000,"deviation_pct":-18.8,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"ARG","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"413,135 vs 507,000 (-18.5%; gap 93,865)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":413135,"projected":507000,"deviation_pct":-18.5,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"PAN","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"59,729 vs 72,000 (-17.0%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":59729,"projected":72000,"deviation_pct":-17.0,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"ALB","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"23,310 vs 28,000 (-16.8%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":23310,"projected":28000,"deviation_pct":-16.8,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"AZE","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"102,310 vs 121,000 (-15.4%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":102310,"projected":121000,"deviation_pct":-15.4,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"TUR","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"937,559 vs 1,061,000 (-11.6%; gap 123,441)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":937559,"projected":1061000,"deviation_pct":-11.6,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"CHL","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"154,441 vs 172,000 (-10.2%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":154441,"projected":172000,"deviation_pct":-10.2,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"URY","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"29,899 vs 33,000 (-9.4%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":29899,"projected":33000,"deviation_pct":-9.4,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"JPN","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"686,173 vs 751,000 (-8.6%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":686173,"projected":751000,"deviation_pct":-8.6,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"HKG","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"36,723 vs 40,000 (-8.2%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":36723,"projected":40000,"deviation_pct":-8.2,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"BLR","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"58,938 vs 64,000 (-7.9%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":58938,"projected":64000,"deviation_pct":-7.9,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"BRA","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"2,376,901 vs 2,572,000 (-7.6%; gap 195,099)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":2376901,"projected":2572000,"deviation_pct":-7.6,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"SVN","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"16,875 vs 18,000 (-6.2%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":16875,"projected":18000,"deviation_pct":-6.2,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"CHE","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"78,256 vs 83,000 (-5.7%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":78256,"projected":83000,"deviation_pct":-5.7,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"ESP","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"318,579 vs 333,000 (-4.3%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":318579,"projected":333000,"deviation_pct":-4.3,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"AUS","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"292,318 vs 305,000 (-4.2%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":292318,"projected":305000,"deviation_pct":-4.2,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"GRC","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"68,309 vs 71,000 (-3.8%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":68309,"projected":71000,"deviation_pct":-3.8,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"RUS","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"1,222,408 vs 1,270,000 (-3.7%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":1222408,"projected":1270000,"deviation_pct":-3.7,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"GBR","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"659,628 vs 684,000 (-3.6%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":659628,"projected":684000,"deviation_pct":-3.6,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"NLD","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"166,143 vs 172,000 (-3.4%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":166143,"projected":172000,"deviation_pct":-3.4,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"DNK","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"57,079 vs 59,000 (-3.3%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":57079,"projected":59000,"deviation_pct":-3.3,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"KOR","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"238,317 vs 241,000 (-1.1%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":238317,"projected":241000,"deviation_pct":-1.1,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"FRA","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"629,000 vs 636,000 (-1.1%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":629000,"projected":636000,"deviation_pct":-1.1,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"ARE","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"106,915 vs 108,000 (-1.0%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":106915,"projected":108000,"deviation_pct":-1.0,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"USA","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"3,628,934 vs 3,654,000 (-0.7%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":3628934,"projected":3654000,"deviation_pct":-0.7,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"UZB","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"926,422 vs 929,000 (-0.3%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":926422,"projected":929000,"deviation_pct":-0.3,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"CAN","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"365,737 vs 361,000 (+1.3%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":365737,"projected":361000,"deviation_pct":1.3,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"KWT","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"49,063 vs 48,000 (+2.2%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":49063,"projected":48000,"deviation_pct":2.2,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"BIH","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"24,598 vs 24,000 (+2.5%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":24598,"projected":24000,"deviation_pct":2.5,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"HRV","claim":"2024 births vs WPP 2024 medium projection","numbers":"32,069 vs 31,000 (+3.4%)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":32069,"projected":31000,"deviation_pct":3.4,"source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"COL/EGY/TUR","claim":"WPP 2024 ESTIMATES of past (2022-2023) births exceed official registrations in countries the UN rates >=90% complete","numbers":"COL 2022: 573,625 official vs 710,000 UNPD (+23.8%); COL 2023: 515,549 vs 705,000 (+36.7%); EGY 2022: 2,192,947 vs 2,375,000 (+8.3%); EGY 2023: 2,044,880 vs 2,406,000 (+17.7%); TUR 2022: 1,041,846 vs 1,079,000 (+3.6%); TUR 2023: 963,075 vs 1,072,000 (+11.3%); total 7,331,922 vs 8,347,000 (+13.8%, 1,015,078)","year":2023,"projection":"WPP 2024 estimates","source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"CHN","claim":"WPP 2022 medium projected China's births well above NBS outcomes","numbers":"2022: 10.76 M projected vs 9.56 M actual (+12.5%); 2023: 10.66 vs 9.02 (+18.2%); 2024: 10.58 vs 9.54 (+10.9%); 2025: 10.44 vs 7.92 (+31.8%, 2.52 M)","year":2025,"projection":"WPP 2022 medium","actual":7920000,"projected":10441801,"source_url":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PPgp/wpp2022/main/data-raw/birthsprojMed.txt"},{"country":"CHN","claim":"WPP 2024 medium vs NBS births","numbers":"2024: 8.82 M projected vs 9.54 M actual (-7.5%, dragon-year bump); 2025: 8.71 M vs 7.92 M (+10.0%). WPP 2024 estimates for 2022/2023 (9.46/8.90 M) are within ~1.3% of NBS.","year":2025,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","actual":7920000,"projected":8709352,"source_url":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/births-and-deaths-projected-to-2100.csv?v=1&csvType=filtered&useColumnShortNames=true&country=~CHN"},{"country":"CHN","claim":"WPP 2015/2017/2019 assumed China TFR ~1.6-1.7 for 2020-2025 (low variants 1.23-1.45); the UN's own WPP 2024 estimates for 2020-2023 are 1.24, 1.12, 1.03, 1.00","numbers":"2020-2025 medium: 1.625 (WPP2015), 1.664 (WPP2017), 1.705 (WPP2019); low: 1.225, 1.264, 1.455; WPP 2024 mean 2020-2024 = 1.08 (derived)","year":2023,"projection":"WPP 2015/2017/2019","source_url":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PPgp/wpp2019/master/data/tfrprojMed.txt"},{"country":"CHN/KOR/CHL/USA/IND","claim":"WPP 2024 builds in immediate mean reversion after steep declines (Terra Incognita Table A3: WPP 2024 TFR estimates 2018, 2023 and medium projection 2028)","numbers":"China 1.54 -> 1.00 -> 1.05; South Korea 0.95 -> 0.72 -> 0.79 (to 1.30 by 2100); Chile 1.54 -> 1.17 -> 1.12; USA 1.72 -> 1.62 -> 1.63; India 2.18 -> 1.98 -> 1.90; China projected to 1.35 by 2100","year":2028,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"KOR","claim":"UN projection made ~5 years earlier (implied WPP 2019) for South Korea's 2023 births","numbers":"~350,000 projected vs ~230,000 actual (more than a third fewer); actual 230,028","year":2023,"projection":"UN WPP (circa 2019), as reported by FT/John Burn-Murdoch","source_url":"https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/take-the-under","notes":"Secondary: Pielke (28 Oct 2024) quoting the FT; exact WPP 2019 figure not verified."},{"country":"COL","claim":"Colombia 2023 births vs UN nowcast","numbers":"510,000 births in 2023, a 22% decline over five years, about 30% below the UN's nowcast","year":2023,"projection":"UN WPP nowcast (as reported by FT)","source_url":"https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/take-the-under","notes":"Secondary (FT via Pielke). Consistent with Terra Incognita Table A1 (515,549 official vs 705,000 WPP 2024 estimate)."},{"country":"NGA","claim":"Nigeria fertility fell faster than WPP 2019/2022 medium expected; WPP 2024 then over-corrected below the DHS","numbers":"DHS 5.3 (2018), 4.8 (MIS 2021), 4.8 (NDHS 2023-24) vs WPP 2019 medium 5.08 (2020-2025) and WPP 2022 medium 5.06 (2023)/4.99 (2024), WPP 2022 low 4.81 (2023); WPP 2024 estimates 5.02 (2018), 4.48 (2023)","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2019/2022/2024","source_url":"https://api.dhsprogram.com/rest/dhs/data?countryIds=NG&indicatorIds=FE_FRTR_W_TFR&f=json"},{"country":"IND","claim":"India reached replacement ~5-15 years before WPP 2010-2019 medium variants expected","numbers":"First 5-year period below 2.1: 2030-35 (WPP 2010, 2012, 2015), 2025-30 (WPP 2017, 2019); WPP 2019 2020-2025 = 2.14. Actual: SRS 2.0 (2020), NFHS-5 2.0 (2019-21), SRS 1.9 (2023)","year":2020,"projection":"WPP 2010-2019 medium","source_url":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PPgp/wpp2019/master/data/tfrprojMed.txt"},{"country":"COG","claim":"Republic of Congo DHS 2023-25 fertility below WPP low variant","numbers":"TFR 3.5 (2023-25) vs 5.1 (2011-12); 0.3 below the WPP low variant","year":2024,"projection":"WPP 2024 low","source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"WLD","claim":"Successive WPP revisions cut the 2100 world population and moved the peak earlier","numbers":"2100: 11.213 bn (WPP2015), 11.184 (2017), 10.875 (2019), 10.349 (2022), 10.180 (2024); peak: none before 2100 (2015-2019) -> 10.431 bn in 2086 (2022) -> 10.289 bn in 2084 (2024); world TFR 2025-2030: 2.38/2.39/2.38/2.29/2.22","year":2100,"projection":"WPP 2015-2024 medium","source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"},{"country":"WLD","claim":"Competing forecasts of world 2100 population and peak","numbers":"UN WPP 2024: 10.2 bn in 2100 (9.0-11.4); WIC 2023: 9.9 bn; IHME 2020: 8.8 bn (6.8-11.8), 1.4 bn (~14%) below UN; IHME peak 9.73 bn in 2064; Fernandez-Villaverde & Norrick: ~9 bn peak around 2056; WPP 2024 low variant: 8.949 bn in 2053","year":2100,"projection":"various","source_url":"https://desapublications.un.org/file/20622/download"},{"country":"WLD","claim":"Fernandez-Villaverde & Norrick: world already at/below replacement in 2026","numbers":"WPP 2024 medium world TFR 2026 = 2.23 (132.5 M births); their corrected estimate <= 2.19 vs mortality-adjusted replacement ~2.20; >= 1.6 M births over-projected for 2024 in Table A2, likely ~2.5 M more once 2025 data for Egypt, Mexico and Philippines are included","year":2026,"projection":"WPP 2024 medium","source_url":"https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/26-016%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf"}],"pension":[{"country":"United States","report":"2025 OASDI Trustees Report","tfr_assumption":"Intermediate ultimate TFR 1.9 (unchanged from 2024 report) but now reached in 2050, 10 years later than in the 2024 report; low-cost 2.1, high-cost 1.6.","actual_tfr":"1.5995 in 2024 (1,599.5 births per 1,000 women; record low; 2023: 1.621) — CDC/NCHS final 2024 data (NVSR vol. 75 no. 2, 9 June 2026). Provisional 2025: 3,606,400 births (-1%), general fertility rate 53.1 (TFR not given in the provisional report).","other":"OASI reserves depleted in 2033, combined OASDI (hypothetical) in 2034, DI not depleted within 75 years; OASI depletion implies ~23% benefit cut (Center for Retirement Research summary). CRR: with fertility at 1.6 instead of 1.9 the 75-year deficit rises from 3.82% to 4.49% of taxable payroll.","source_url":"https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2025/II_A_highlights.html"},{"country":"Japan","report":"2024 Actuarial Valuation (令和6年財政検証)","tfr_assumption":"IPSS 'Population Projections for Japan (2023 Estimates)': medium-fertility TFR 1.36 in 2070 (high 1.64, low 1.13); base 1.33 (2020 actual); net migration of foreigners 164,000/yr (variants 250,000 and 69,000).","actual_tfr":"1.15 in 2024 (record low); 1.14 in 2025 (preliminary; births 671,236 vs 686,173 in 2024; natural decrease 918,253).","other":"Model replacement ratio 61.2% in FY2024; under medium population it is projected at 57.6% (from 2037) in the 'transition to sustainable growth' case and 50.4% (2057) in the 'past 30-year trend' case; with low fertility 56.4% (2041) and 46.8% (2065). The valuation states recent fertility has fallen below the medium projection while mortality and net migration of foreigners have exceeded it.","source_url":"https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/2024_Actuarial_Valuation.pdf"},{"country":"South Korea","report":"5th actuarial (financial) projection, preliminary results 27 Jan 2023 (final March 2023)","tfr_assumption":"Statistics Korea 2021 population projection, medium: TFR 0.73 (2023) falling to 0.70 (2024) then recovering to 0.96 (2030), 1.19 (2040) and 1.21 from 2046. (4th projection, 2018: 1.27 in 2023 rising to 1.38.)","actual_tfr":"0.72 (2023), 0.75 (2024), 0.80 (2025; births 254.3 thousand, +6.7%) — Statistics Korea 'Birth Statistics in 2025', 26 Aug 2026.","other":"Before reform: balance deficit from 2041, peak reserve 2040 (KRW 1,755 tn), fund depletion 2055 (2 years earlier than the 4th projection's 2057). Reform passed by the National Assembly on 20 Mar 2025 (effective 1 Jan 2026): contribution rate 9% -> 13% (+0.5 pp a year from 2026, reaching 13% in 2033), nominal replacement rate fixed at 43% from 2026, childbirth credit extended to the first child. MOHW: the government's 2024 projection put depletion at 2056; with the new rates plus raising the fund return by 1 pp (4.5% -> 5.5%) depletion is extended 15 years to 2071.","source_url":"https://www.mohw.go.kr/board.es?mid=a10503010100&bid=0027&act=view&list_no=374744"},{"country":"Germany","report":"Rentenversicherungsbericht 2025 (Federal Government); Destatis 16th coordinated population projection (11 Dec 2025)","tfr_assumption":"RVB 2025: TFR held constant at 1.45 in the long run, with a gradual rise until 2035 (the 15th coordinated population projection had assumed 1.55 long-term); net migration 250,000 a year. Destatis 16th projection: G1 low ~1.30 (1.29 by 2070), G2 moderate 1.45 by end-2030s then 1.47, G3 high 1.55 by 2030 then 1.65 (all assume a slight fall in 2025).","actual_tfr":"1.35 (2024), 1.32 (2025; lowest since 1997; 654,241 births, lowest post-war); 2023: 1.38 (census-corrected).","other":"RVB 2025 middle variant: contribution rate 18.6% until 2027, 19.8% (2028), 20.1% (2030), 21.2% (2039); pension level (before tax) held at 48% until 2031 under the 'Rentenpaket 2025'. Destatis 16th projection: population 63.9–86.5 million in 2070 (74.7 million moderate), vs 70.2–94.4 million in the 15th projection.","source_url":"https://www.bmas.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Rente/rentenversicherungsbericht-2025.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=3"},{"country":"United Kingdom","report":"OBR Fiscal risks and sustainability, July 2025","tfr_assumption":"OBR long-term projections are underpinned by the ONS 2021-based population projections (long-term TFR 1.59 by mid-2045). The ONS 2022-based projections (28 Jan 2025) lowered the long-term TFR to 1.45 by 2047 (net migration 340,000/yr). The OBR 2025 report notes the latest ONS projections imply faster ageing 'due to birth rates falling even further below replacement than previously forecast'.","actual_tfr":null,"other":"OBR: on current policy, borrowing above 20% and debt above 270% of GDP by the early 2070s. The OBR's 2022 FRS scenario lowering fertility from 1.84 to 1.59 initially reduced the primary deficit (less education spending) but raised it by 1.1% of GDP by 2071-72.","source_url":"https://obr.uk/frs/fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-july-2025/"},{"country":"Canada","report":"Actuarial Report (32nd) on the CPP as at 31 Dec 2024 (tabled 8 Dec 2025; revised version tabled 27 May 2026); a 33rd report supplements it","tfr_assumption":"Ultimate TFR 1.35 from 2033 (rising from 1.26 in 2023, partly attributed to the Canada-Wide Early Learning and Child Care plan), down from 1.54 in the 31st report (as at 31 Dec 2021); sensitivity tests 1.05 (higher cost) and 1.65 (lower cost).","actual_tfr":"Statistics Canada table 13-10-0418-01: 1.27 (2023), 1.26 (2024), 1.26 (2025). (The CPP report cites 1.26 for 2023.)","other":"Lower assumed fertility raised the base CPP minimum contribution rate by 0.22 percentage points versus the 31st report.","source_url":"https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/en/oca/actuarial-reports/actuarial-report-32nd-canada-pension-plan-revised-version"},{"country":"Australia","report":"2023 Intergenerational Report (Treasury, Aug 2023)","tfr_assumption":"TFR expected to decline from 1.66 (2022–23) and stabilise at 1.62 from 2030–31, held at that level to 2062–63.","actual_tfr":"1.481 (2024), 1.499 (2023) — ABS 'Births, Australia 2024' (released 15 Oct 2025).","other":"Population projected to grow from 26.5 million (2022–23) to 40.5 million in 2062–63.","source_url":"https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-08/p2023-435150.pdf"},{"country":"France","report":"Conseil d'orientation des retraites (COR) annual reports, June 2025 and June 2026","tfr_assumption":"June 2025 report: TFR 1.8 and net migration +70,000/yr (INSEE 2021 projections). June 2026 report: TFR 1.45 from 2028 and net migration +150,000/yr from 2026 (new INSEE assumptions published April 2026); variants 1.2 and 1.7.","actual_tfr":"1.61 (2024), 1.56 (2025, provisional; lowest since the end of WWI) — INSEE Bilan démographique 2025 (13 Jan 2026).","other":"COR 2026: pension-system balance -0.2% of GDP in 2030, -0.9% in 2045, -2.4% in 2070. TFR 1.2 instead of 1.45 adds about 1 point of GDP to pension spending by 2070; TFR 1.7 lowers it by about 1 point. INSEE: in 2025 births 645,000, deaths 651,000, natural balance -6,000 (first negative since end of WWII).","source_url":"https://www.cor-retraites.fr/rapports-du-cor/rapport-annuel-cor-juin-2026-evolutions-perspectives-retraites-france"},{"country":"China","report":"Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 'China Pension Actuarial Report 2019–2050' (2019)","tfr_assumption":null,"actual_tfr":"About 1.0: UN WPP 2024 estimates 1.00 (2023) and 1.01 (2024). NBS (via search-result excerpt of Caixin Global, 19 Jan 2026): 7.92 million births in 2025 (9.54 million in 2024), population -3.39 million.","other":"Depletion of the fund 'by 2035' as stated in the task brief could NOT be verified in this pass (web-search budget exhausted; Reuters not accessible). Treat as unverified.","source_url":null}],"rm2000":[{"area":{"ru":"Франция","en":"France"},"pop":1473,"work":5459,"psr":93794,"src":"https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm_200010_un_2001_replacementmigration.pdf"},{"area":{"ru":"Германия","en":"Germany"},"pop":17838,"work":25209,"psr":188497,"src":"https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm_200010_un_2001_replacementmigration.pdf"},{"area":{"ru":"Италия","en":"Italy"},"pop":12944,"work":19610,"psr":119684,"src":"https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm_200010_un_2001_replacementmigration.pdf"},{"area":{"ru":"Япония","en":"Japan"},"pop":17141,"work":33487,"psr":553495,"src":"https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm_200010_un_2001_replacementmigration.pdf"},{"area":{"ru":"Южная Корея","en":"Republic of Korea"},"pop":1509,"work":6426,"psr":5148928,"src":"https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm_200010_un_2001_replacementmigration.pdf"},{"area":{"ru":"Россия","en":"Russian Federation"},"pop":27952,"work":35756,"psr":257110,"src":"https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm_200010_un_2001_replacementmigration.pdf"},{"area":{"ru":"Великобритания","en":"United Kingdom"},"pop":2634,"work":6247,"psr":59775,"src":"https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm_200010_un_2001_replacementmigration.pdf"},{"area":{"ru":"США","en":"United States"},"pop":6384,"work":17967,"psr":592757,"src":"https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm_200010_un_2001_replacementmigration.pdf"},{"area":{"ru":"Европа","en":"Europe"},"pop":100137,"work":161346,"psr":1386151,"src":"https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm_200010_un_2001_replacementmigration.pdf"},{"area":{"ru":"Евросоюз","en":"European Union"},"pop":47456,"work":79605,"psr":700506,"src":"https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm_200010_un_2001_replacementmigration.pdf"}],"pronatal":[{"country":"South Korea","policy":"National low-fertility measures since 2006 (programme details not verified here); 2025 pension reform extended the pension 'childbirth credit' to the first child (12 months) and removed the 50-month cap (MOHW, 20 Mar 2025).","spending":"OECD public spending on family benefits: 0.35% of GDP (2005), 0.84% (2010), 1.28% (2015), 1.47% (2019), 1.97% (2020), 1.77% (2021; cash 0.35, services 1.27, tax 0.15). Cumulative spending since 2006 (often quoted in the hundreds of trillions of won): NOT verified in this pass.","tfr_path":{"2006":1.13,"2015":1.24,"2016":1.17,"2017":1.05,"2018":0.98,"2019":0.92,"2020":0.84,"2021":0.81,"2022":0.78,"2023":0.72,"2024":0.75,"2025":0.8},"assessment":"TFR fell from 1.24 (2015) to 0.72 (2023) while family-benefit spending (OECD measure) rose from 1.28% to about 1.8–2.0% of GDP; it then rose to 0.75 (2024) and 0.80 (2025), with births up 6.7% in 2025.","source_url":"https://kostat.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20108100000&bid=11773&act=view&list_no=447264"},{"country":"Hungary","policy":"Expanded family support since 2010, including sizeable family tax breaks (OECD: tax breaks for families exceed 0.5% of GDP in France, Germany and Hungary).","spending":"OECD public spending on family benefits (cash + services + tax breaks): 3.41% of GDP (2010), 3.80% (2011), 3.38% (2015), 3.06% (2019), 3.22% (2020), 2.93% (2021; cash 1.32, services 1.00, tax 0.61). OECD notes housing and other non-exclusive family support are not included in this measure.","tfr_path":{"2010":1.25,"2011":1.23,"2015":1.45,"2016":1.51,"2019":1.51,"2020":1.59,"2021":1.61,"2022":1.55,"2023":1.51,"2024":1.39,"2025":1.31},"assessment":"TFR rose from 1.23 (2011) to a peak of 1.61 (2021) and has since declined to 1.31 (2025), back near the early-2010s level. (KSH series; Eurostat shows slightly higher values, e.g. 1.63 in 2021 and 1.41 in 2024.)","source_url":"https://www.ksh.hu/stadat_files/nep/en/nep0001.html"},{"country":"Poland","policy":"Family 500+ universal child-raising benefit (from 2016, per task brief), raised to PLN 800 per month per child under 18 regardless of income from 1 January 2024 ('Rodzina 800 plus').","spending":"OECD public spending on family benefits: 1.92% of GDP (2015), 2.93% (2016), 2.97% (2017), 3.32% (2019), 4.05% (2020), 3.63% (2021; OECD: over 3.5% of GDP only in Iceland and Poland).","tfr_path":{"2015":1.289,"2016":1.357,"2017":1.453,"2018":1.435,"2019":1.419,"2020":1.387,"2021":1.33,"2022":1.261,"2023":1.158,"2024":1.099,"2025":1.068},"assessment":"TFR rose from 1.289 (2015) to 1.453 (2017), then fell every year to 1.068 (2025), below the pre-programme level, while family-benefit spending stayed around 3–4% of GDP.","source_url":"https://bdl.stat.gov.pl/api/v1/data/by-variable/59049?unit-level=0&format=json"},{"country":"Russia","policy":"Maternity (family) capital from 1 January 2007 (Federal Law No. 256-FZ of 29.12.2006); initial amount 250,000 rubles; available for first births from 2020; programme extended to 2030; from 1 Feb 2024 639,400 rubles (first child) and 883,000 rubles (second child).","spending":"About 1.7 trillion rubles budgeted for maternity-capital housing payments in 2025–2027 (Finance Ministry, as cited on Russian Wikipedia); 14.5 million certificates issued since 2007 (PM Mishustin via Kommersant, as cited there).","tfr_path":{"2006":1.305,"2007":1.416,"2010":1.567,"2015":1.777,"2016":1.762,"2019":1.504,"2022":1.416,"2023":1.41,"2024":1.4,"2025":1.374},"assessment":"TFR rose from 1.305 (2006) to 1.777 (2015), then declined to about 1.4 by 2022–2024 and 1.374 in 2025.","source_url":"https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/RUS/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?format=json"},{"country":"Georgia","policy":null,"spending":null,"tfr_path":{"2005":1.59,"2007":1.69,"2008":1.84,"2009":2.01,"2010":2.0,"2013":1.86,"2014":2.31,"2015":2.31,"2016":2.24,"2019":2.01,"2021":1.98,"2022":1.82,"2023":1.7,"2024":1.67,"2025":1.53},"assessment":"TFR rose from 1.69 (2007) to about 2.0 (2009–2010) and 2.31 (2014–2015), then declined to 1.53 in 2025. Geostat note: 1995–2013 values are retro-projections; from 2014 based on registered data (series break).","source_url":"https://geostat.ge/media/78374/16-age-specific-fertility-rates-and-total-fertility-rate.xlsx"},{"country":"Czechia","policy":null,"spending":"OECD public spending on family benefits: 2.27% of GDP (2010), 2.00% (2015), 2.09% (2019), 2.34% (2020), 2.23% (2021).","tfr_path":{"1999":1.13,"2010":1.51,"2015":1.57,"2019":1.71,"2020":1.74,"2021":1.83,"2022":1.64,"2023":1.46,"2024":1.36},"assessment":"TFR rose from 1.13 (1999) to 1.83 (2021) and fell to 1.36 by 2024. CZSO: 2025 live births 77.6 thousand (-8%, lowest on record), natural decrease 35.7 thousand (largest since 1919); 2025 TFR not in the CZSO release opened.","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/demo_find?indic_de=TOTFERRT&geo=CZ"},{"country":"Japan","policy":"Children's Future Strategy 'Acceleration Plan' adopted December 2023: about JPY 3.6 trillion-scale expansion of child-rearing support (child allowance expansion, universal day-care access, pregnancy benefit, post-birth leave benefits, pension-contribution exemption), partly financed by a new 'child and child-rearing support levy' on all generations and firms.","spending":"JPY ~3.6 trillion scale (Children and Families Agency). OECD public spending on family benefits: 1.61% of GDP (2015) -> 2.42% (2021).","tfr_path":{"2005":1.26,"2015":1.45,"2019":1.36,"2022":1.26,"2023":1.2,"2024":1.15,"2025":1.14},"assessment":"TFR continued to decline after the 2023 strategy: 1.20 (2023), 1.15 (2024), 1.14 (2025 preliminary); births 671,236 in 2025.","source_url":"https://www.cfa.go.jp/policies/kodomokosodateshienkin/"},{"country":"Singapore","policy":"Baby Bonus scheme (details and spending not verified in this pass).","spending":null,"tfr_path":{"2005":1.26,"2010":1.15,"2015":1.24,"2020":1.1,"2021":1.12,"2022":1.04,"2023":0.97,"2024":0.97,"2025":0.87},"assessment":"Resident TFR fell below 1.0 in 2023 (0.97), stayed at 0.97 in 2024 and dropped to 0.87 in 2025.","source_url":"https://tablebuilder.singstat.gov.sg/api/table/tabledata/M810091"},{"country":"France","policy":null,"spending":"OECD public spending on family benefits: 3.64% of GDP (2010), 3.70% (2015), 3.43% (2019), 3.38% (2021).","tfr_path":{"2010":2.03,"2015":1.96,"2020":1.82,"2023":1.66,"2024":1.61,"2025":1.56},"assessment":"TFR declined from 2.03 (2010; INSEE gives 2.02 for metropolitan France) to 1.56 in 2025; births 645,000 in 2025 (-24% vs 2010) and a negative natural balance (-6,000).","source_url":"https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/8719824"},{"country":"Israel","policy":null,"spending":"OECD public spending on family benefits: 2.14% of GDP (2010), 2.11% (2015), 2.49% (2019), 2.33% (2021).","tfr_path":{"2010":3.03,"2015":3.09,"2019":3.01,"2020":2.9,"2021":3.0,"2022":2.89,"2023":2.85,"2024":2.87},"assessment":"TFR has stayed around 2.9–3.1 since 2010, the highest in the OECD set covered here, with family-benefit spending near the OECD average (2.35% of GDP in 2021).","source_url":"https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ISR/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?format=json"},{"country":"Cross-national (evidence reviews)","policy":"Systematic reviews / meta-analyses of policy effects on fertility","spending":null,"tfr_path":null,"assessment":"Bergsvik, Fauske & Hart (2021, Population and Development Review 47(4):913–964), systematic review of 35 (quasi-)experimental studies since 1970 in Europe, the US, Canada and Australia: childcare expansions increase completed fertility; increased cash transfers have temporary effects; new evidence on parental-leave expansions (notably Central Europe) suggests larger effects than previously established; subsidised assisted reproduction shows some promise for women over 35. 2024–2026 meta-analyses requested in the brief were NOT identified/verified in this pass (web-search budget exhausted).","source_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12431"}],"access":[{"country":"Russia","what":"Monthly demographic statistics withdrawn: Rosstat's monthly report 'Socio-economic situation of Russia' for January–May 2025 appeared without its 'Demographics' section (no population size, natural increase, births, deaths, marriages, divorces or migration); Rosstat also skipped its monthly 'natural population movement' summary for April 2025. The preceding monthly reports had already carried only national aggregates without regional breakdowns (regional operational data on births, deaths, marriages and divorces disappeared first).","when":"Regional monthly breakdowns dropped in spring 2025 (last broadly available update March 2025); whole demographic section absent from the January–May 2025 report published in early July 2025.","reason":"None given for the monthly report (no Rosstat explanation reported by The Moscow Times or Mediazona).","url":"https://ru.themoscowtimes.com/2025/07/05/demografiya-poprostu-otsutstvuet-rosstat-zakril-dannie-dazhe-o-chislennosti-naseleniya-a168019"},{"country":"Russia","what":"Detailed final mortality data for 2024 (deaths by sex, age and cause) not released; when researcher Dmitry Kobak requested it in June 2025, Rosstat replied that the government had 'принял решение о временном приостановлении' (decided on a temporary suspension) of access to these previously open data.","when":"June 2025 (detailed cause-of-death tables normally due end of June were not published).","reason":"Government decision on 'temporary suspension' (Rosstat reply). Legal basis: Federal Law No. 55-FZ of 28.02.2023 amended Art. 5 of Law 282-FZ so that Government decisions on updating the federal statistical work plan 'may establish particularities of access to official statistical information, including temporary suspension of its provision and dissemination'.","url":"https://zona.media/news/2025/07/05/rosstat-censorship"},{"country":"Russia","what":"Regional life-expectancy estimates for 2024 (due on Rosstat's site by 20 March 2025) not published; only the national figure was released.","when":"March 2025","reason":"Rosstat confirmed that 'решение о приостановке публикации данных об ожидаемой продолжительности жизни в регионах действительно было принято' (a decision to suspend publication was taken); no reason stated.","url":"https://zona.media/news/2025/03/25/rosstat"},{"country":"Russia","what":"Tables with detailed data on deaths and mortality from external causes (by age group) removed from Rosstat's natural-population-movement dataset.","when":"July 2024","reason":null,"url":"https://istories.media/news/2024/07/16/rosstat-skril-dannie-o-smertnosti-v-rossii-ot-vneshnikh-prichin/"},{"country":"Belarus","what":"Belstat stopped publishing new mortality data from June 2020; in May 2021 it postponed indefinitely the release of 2020 mortality and migration data (normally published in a natural-movement bulletin); births and deaths data have not been published since 2020.","when":"From June 2020; 2020 mortality/migration release (scheduled 17 May 2021) postponed the day before.","reason":"None. New release date listed as 'по мере готовности' (when ready); asked why, the head of Belstat's demographic statistics department answered 'Без комментариев' (no comment).","url":"https://euroradio.fm/ru/belstat-o-perenose-publikacii-dannyh-po-smertnosti-bez-kommentariev"},{"country":"Ukraine","what":"State Statistics Service (Derzhstat) has not disclosed official demographic statistics (births, deaths, population) for the war period; its SDG metadata for 2022–2023 states disclosure 'will be resumed after the completion of the deadline for submission of statistical and financial reports' set by the martial-law reporting law. A population estimate was prepared but its publication (format, scope, timing) was still being discussed with the government in 2026. Registered births/deaths are reported by the Ministry of Justice (2024: ~176,600 births, ~495,000 deaths, government-controlled territory).","when":"From 2022 onward","reason":"Law of Ukraine 'On Protection of Interests of Subjects of Reporting and Other Documents during Martial Law or War'; Derzhstat head Arsen Makarchuk cited security risks (data could be exploited in hybrid warfare) and the legal ban on a census during martial law and for at least six months after.","url":"https://sdg.stat.gov.ua/3-1-1-a/"},{"country":"China","what":"National cremation figures for Q4 2022 omitted from the Ministry of Civil Affairs' quarterly civil-affairs statistics released 9 June 2023 (cremation numbers had been released regularly in the Q4 report since 2007); Zhejiang's provincial Q1-2023 cremation figures (~170,000, about +73% y/y) were posted and later deleted. Per SCMP (search-result excerpt), Chongqing's civil-affairs bureau announced on 9 June 2023 an indefinite suspension of civil-affairs data releases following a Ministry instruction.","when":"June 2023","reason":"Ministry gave no explanation (Taiwan News/CNN). Chongqing notice reportedly cited a Ministry of Civil Affairs instruction and new data-publication provisions of the NBS-approved 'Statistical Survey System for Civil Affairs' (SCMP, via search excerpt only).","url":"https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/4921721"},{"country":"China","what":"A key fertility-rate data series was dropped from the latest China Statistical Yearbook (as reported 27 Oct 2017 by SCMP).","when":"2017","reason":null,"url":"https://www.chinafile.com/node/42416"},{"country":"Turkey","what":"TurkStat (TÜİK) postponed 'Death and Cause of Death Statistics, 2020' (due June 2021) and the 2021 edition (due 23 June 2022, postponed the day before) plus 'Life Tables, 2019–2021'; it also postponed 'International Migration Statistics, 2020' (due 16 July 2021). The 2020 and 2021 death statistics were eventually published in February 2023 (2020 deaths: 507,938, +16.5% y/y).","when":"June 2021 – February 2023","reason":"Work on administrative records not completed ('idari kayıtlardan üretilmekte olan istatistiklere ilişkin çalışmaların henüz tamamlanamamış olması').","url":"https://www.evrensel.net/haber/464456/kovid-olumlerine-tuik-ortusu"},{"country":"India","what":"Decennial census due in 2021 postponed (house-listing planned April–September 2020, population enumeration 9–28 February 2021); a new census was notified on 16 June 2025 with reference date 1 March 2027 (1 October 2026 for snow-bound areas). Vital-statistics reports were also delayed: the Civil Registration System and MCCD reports for 2021 were published on 6 May 2025 and the SRS Statistical Report 2021 on 7 May 2025 (2022 editions in June 2025).","when":"Census: postponed from 2020/21 to 2026/27. Vital statistics for 2021: released May 2025.","reason":"Census: 'census-related field activities have been postponed till further orders due to COVID-19 pandemic' (Minister of State for Home Affairs, Lok Sabha written reply, July 2021). No official reason found for the vital-statistics delays.","url":"https://morungexpress.com/census-2021-related-field-activities-postponed-due-to-covid-19-govt"},{"country":"Venezuela","what":"Health Ministry stopped releasing epidemiological figures (incl. infant and maternal mortality) after July 2015; bulletins reappeared on the ministry website in May 2017 after nearly two years of silence.","when":"July 2015 – May 2017","reason":"None given; the ministry did not respond to Reuters' request for information.","url":"https://voanews.com/a/venezuela-health-data-soaring-infant-mortality-malaria/3845006.html"}],"origins":[{"iso3":"IND","tfr":1.9,"year":2024},{"iso3":"MEX","tfr":1.6,"year":2023},{"iso3":"PHL","tfr":1.9,"year":2022},{"iso3":"TUR","tfr":1.42,"year":2025},{"iso3":"MAR","tfr":1.97,"year":2024},{"iso3":"COL","tfr":1.0,"year":2025},{"iso3":"VNM","tfr":1.93,"year":2025},{"iso3":"EGY","tfr":2.75,"year":2023,"src":"un"},{"iso3":"NGA","tfr":4.8,"year":2024},{"iso3":"PAK","tfr":3.605,"year":2023,"src":"un"},{"iso3":"BGD","tfr":2.3,"year":2022},{"iso3":"KAZ","tfr":2.57,"year":2025},{"iso3":"UZB","tfr":3.5,"year":2023,"src":"un"},{"iso3":"UKR","tfr":0.977,"year":2023,"src":"un"},{"iso3":"CHN","tfr":1.0,"year":2023,"src":"un"}]}