{"locations":[{"code":"USA","name":"США","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/USA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 3,09 в 1950 → 1,57 в 2025 (−49%). Максимум — 3,75 в 1958; последнее значение на 58% ниже. Порог: ниже 2,1 — с 1972. Переломы тренда около 1959 и 1973 года: +0,08 → −0,14 → 0 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":3.086,"last":1.574,"peak":{"year":1958,"value":3.754},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1972,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1959,"slope_before":0.0823,"slope_after":-0.135},{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.135,"slope_after":-0.00305}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 3,7 млн в 1950 → 3,61 млн в 2025 (−2%). Максимум — 4,38 млн в 1961; последнее значение на 18% ниже. Переломы тренда около 1960 и 1967 года: +73,9 тыс. → −114 тыс. → +5,08 тыс. в год.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":3698,"last":3606.4,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":4379},"breaks":[{"year":1960,"slope_before":73.9,"slope_after":-114},{"year":1967,"slope_before":-114,"slope_after":5.08}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Интернет: 0,8% в 1990 → 94,7% в 2024 (+94 п. п.). Пороги: выше 10% — с 1996, выше 50% — с 2002, выше 90% — с 2020. Быстрее всего рос в 1997–2002: 21,6% → 58,8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.785,"last":94.6938,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1996,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1997,"to":2002,"start":21.6,"end":58.7854}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Доля горожан: 70% в 1960 → 80,2% в 2025 (+10 п. п.). Порог: выше 75% — с 1989. Переломы тренда около 1989 и 2006 года: +0,13 → +0,34 → −0,04 в год.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":69.9799,"last":80.1922,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1989,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":0.127,"slope_after":0.335},{"year":2006,"slope_before":0.335,"slope_after":-0.0418}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"ВВП на душу (ППС): 44 384 долл. ППС в 1990 → 76 931 долл. ППС в 2025 (+73%). Переломы тренда около 2006 и 2012 года: +1 114 → −35 → +1 243 в год.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":44384.2102,"last":76931.3107,"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":1110,"slope_after":-35.2},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-35.2,"slope_after":1240}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Самое быстрое снижение показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 1962–1972: 3,53 → 2,06. В эти же годы: рождения 4,27 млн → 3,42 млн; доля горожан 70,9% → 73,6%; по остальным за эти годы данных нет.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":3.533,"end":2.057,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":4269,"end":3418},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":70.9235,"end":73.5628},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2015–2025): рождаемость (СКР) 1,83 → 1,57; рождения 3,98 млн → 3,61 млн; интернет 74,6% → 94,7%; доля горожан 80,6% → 80,2%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 64 368 долл. ППС → 76 931 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.832,"end":1.574,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":3982,"end":3606.4},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":74.5542,"end":94.6938},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":80.5708,"end":80.1922},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":64367.7189,"end":76931.3107}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2025, 76 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в одну сторону (r = 0,56); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,89). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.558,"r_changes":0.891,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и интернет (1990–2024, 35 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,66); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,35).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.66,"r_changes":0.351,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и доля горожан (1960–2025, 66 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,62); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,04).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.622,"r_changes":0.042,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и ВВП на душу (ППС) (1990–2025, 36 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,82); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,58). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.82,"r_changes":0.585,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 12 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — ни в одном; медиана расхождения −14%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-14.56},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.95,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-16.75},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.025,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-19.83},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.856,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-12.53},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.878,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-13.56},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.883,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-13.79},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.083,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-22.06},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.979,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-17.97},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.903,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-14.69},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.893,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-14.24},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.784,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-9},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.663,"actual":1.574,"gap_pct":-5.35}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-14.4,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 1,64 (+4% к 2025), 2100 — 1,65 (+5% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 1,15.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.574},"values":{"2050":1.643,"2100":1.647},"low_2100":1.147}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 12 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — ни в одном; медиана расхождения −15%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":3904.786,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-6.06},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4321.476,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-15.12},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4723.127,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-22.33},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4257.68,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-13.84},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4347.07,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-15.62},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4371.051,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-16.08},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4549.569,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-19.37},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4460.514,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-17.76},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4240.396,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-13.49},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4283.102,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-14.36},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4036.034,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-9.11},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":3775.418,"actual":3606.4,"gap_pct":-4.48}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-14.74,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Национальная статистика за 2025 год: 3,61 млн — на 2% ниже среднего варианта ООН-2024 (3,66 млн).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":3664,"actual_births_k":3606.4,"gap_pct":-1.6,"un_lower95_births_k":3251,"below_lower95":false,"source":"NCHS VSRR Report No. 43, Births: Provisional Data for 2025 (Apr 2026)","source_url":"https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr043.pdf"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 3,79 млн (+5% к 2025), 2100 — 3,91 млн (+9% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 1,75 млн.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":3606.4},"values":{"2050":3787,"2100":3914},"low_2100":1750}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=USA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}