{"locations":[{"code":"SWE","name":"Швеция","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/SWE/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 2,29 в 1950 → 1,42 в 2025 (−38%). Максимум — 2,45 в 1964; последнее значение на 42% ниже. Пороги: ниже 2,1 — с 1992, ниже 1,5 — с 2023. Переломы тренда около 1965 и 1973 года: +0,01 → −0,07 → 0 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.287,"last":1.42,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":2.448},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1992,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2023,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.00815,"slope_after":-0.0672},{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.0672,"slope_after":-0.00148}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 115 тыс. в 1950 → 97,5 тыс. в 2025 (−15%). Максимум — 123 тыс. в 1991; последнее значение на 21% ниже. Переломы тренда около 2002 и 2017 года: −0,24 тыс. → +1,28 тыс. → −2,68 тыс. в год.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":115.3,"last":97.491,"peak":{"year":1991,"value":123.2},"breaks":[{"year":2002,"slope_before":-0.243,"slope_after":1.28},{"year":2017,"slope_before":1.28,"slope_after":-2.68}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Интернет: 0,6% в 1990 → 95,8% в 2025 (+95 п. п.). Пороги: выше 10% — с 1997, выше 50% — с 2001, выше 90% — с 2019. Быстрее всего рос в 1997–2002: 23,7% → 70,6%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":0.584,"last":95.7663,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1997,"to":2002,"start":23.7,"end":70.57}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Доля горожан: 72,5% в 1960 → 89,1% в 2025 (+17 п. п.). Порог: выше 75% — с 1963. Переломы тренда около 1971 и 2007 года: +0,89 → +0,06 → +0,26 в год.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":72.4684,"last":89.0779,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1963,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1971,"slope_before":0.886,"slope_after":0.0601},{"year":2007,"slope_before":0.0601,"slope_after":0.261}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"ВВП на душу (ППС): 40 200 долл. ППС в 1990 → 63 362 долл. ППС в 2025 (+58%). Минимум — 37 763 долл. ППС в 1993; с тех пор +68%. Переломы тренда около 1996 и 2005 года: +331 → +1 441 → +476 в год.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":40199.7074,"last":63362.4613,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":37762.5408},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":331,"slope_after":1440},{"year":2005,"slope_before":1440,"slope_after":476}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Самое быстрое снижение показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 1966–1976: 2,36 → 1,68. В эти же годы: рождения 123 тыс. → 98,1 тыс.; доля горожан 78% → 82,8%; по остальным за эти годы данных нет.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":2.356,"end":1.682,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":122.7,"end":98.12},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":78.0065,"end":82.7897},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2015–2025): рождаемость (СКР) 1,85 → 1,42; рождения 114 тыс. → 97,5 тыс.; интернет 90,6% → 95,8%; доля горожан 86,6% → 89,1%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 58 956 долл. ППС → 63 362 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.847,"end":1.42,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":114,"end":97.491},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":90.6102,"end":95.7663},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":86.6159,"end":89.0779},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":58955.6412,"end":63362.4613}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2025, 76 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в одну сторону (r = 0,67); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,95). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.674,"r_changes":0.947,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и интернет (1990–2025, 36 лет): уровни почти не связаны (r = −0,22); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,21).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.218,"r_changes":0.213,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и доля горожан (1960–2025, 66 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,71); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = −0,16). Похоже на общий тренд: оба меняются со временем, но не синхронно год к году.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.707,"r_changes":-0.161,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и ВВП на душу (ППС) (1990–2025, 36 лет): уровни почти не связаны (r = −0,29); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,15).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.292,"r_changes":0.153,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 12 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — ни в одном; медиана расхождения −18%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.815,"actual":1.5223,"gap_pct":-16.13},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.548,"actual":1.5223,"gap_pct":-1.66},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.818,"actual":1.5223,"gap_pct":-16.27},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.5223,"gap_pct":-17.71},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.5223,"gap_pct":-17.71},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.5223,"gap_pct":-17.71},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.969,"actual":1.5223,"gap_pct":-22.69},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.953,"actual":1.5223,"gap_pct":-22.05},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.929,"actual":1.5223,"gap_pct":-21.08},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.914,"actual":1.5223,"gap_pct":-20.46},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.843,"actual":1.5223,"gap_pct":-17.4},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.674,"actual":1.42,"gap_pct":-15.17}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-17.71,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 1,52 (+7% к 2025), 2100 — 1,58 (+11% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 1,08.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.42},"values":{"2050":1.522,"2100":1.582},"low_2100":1.082}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 9 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 3; медиана расхождения −11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":96.856,"actual":103.9133,"gap_pct":7.29},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":81.672,"actual":103.9133,"gap_pct":27.23},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":97.564,"actual":103.9133,"gap_pct":6.51},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":108.587,"actual":103.9133,"gap_pct":-4.3},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":112.528,"actual":103.9133,"gap_pct":-7.66},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":112.903,"actual":103.9133,"gap_pct":-7.96},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":120.926,"actual":103.9133,"gap_pct":-14.07},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":124.55,"actual":103.9133,"gap_pct":-16.57},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":123.788,"actual":103.9133,"gap_pct":-16.06},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":124.747,"actual":103.9133,"gap_pct":-16.7},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":120.168,"actual":103.9133,"gap_pct":-13.53},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":112.923,"actual":97.491,"gap_pct":-13.67}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-10.74,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Национальная статистика за 2025 год: 97,5 тыс. — на 1% выше среднего варианта ООН-2024 (97 тыс.).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":97,"actual_births_k":97.491,"gap_pct":0.5,"un_lower95_births_k":85.1,"below_lower95":false,"source":"SCB API tables BefUtvKon1749 (births) and FruktsamhetSum (TFR)","source_url":"https://api.scb.se/OV0104/v1/doris/sv/ssd/START/BE/BE0101/BE0101G/BefUtvKon1749"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 105 тыс. (+7% к 2025), 2100 — 94,7 тыс. (−3% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 40,5 тыс.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":97.491},"values":{"2050":104.8,"2100":94.71},"low_2100":40.46}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=SWE&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}