{"locations":[{"code":"SGP","name":"Сингапур","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/SGP/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 6,23 в 1950 → 0,87 в 2025 (−86%). Максимум — 6,44 в 1956; последнее значение на 86% ниже. Пороги: ниже 2,1 — с 1975, ниже 1,5 — с 1991, ниже 1,0 — с 2015. Переломы тренда около 1957 и 1977 года: +0,03 → −0,24 → −0,02 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":6.225,"last":0.87,"peak":{"year":1956,"value":6.444},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1975,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":1991,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1,"year":2015,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1957,"slope_before":0.0322,"slope_after":-0.237},{"year":1977,"slope_before":-0.237,"slope_after":-0.0191}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 44,9 тыс. в 1950 → 29,9 тыс. в 2025 (−34%). Максимум — 61,8 тыс. в 1958; последнее значение на 52% ниже. Переломы тренда около 1958 и 1970 года: +2,36 тыс. → −1,39 тыс. → −0,02 тыс. в год.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":44.93,"last":29.864,"peak":{"year":1958,"value":61.78},"breaks":[{"year":1958,"slope_before":2.36,"slope_after":-1.39},{"year":1970,"slope_before":-1.39,"slope_after":-0.0215}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Интернет: 0% в 1990 → 94,4% в 2024 (+94 п. п.). Пороги: выше 10% — с 1997, выше 50% — с 2003, выше 90% — с 2020. Быстрее всего рос в 1999–2004: 24,2% → 62%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":94.3776,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2003,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1999,"to":2004,"start":24.2,"end":62}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Доля горожан: 100% в 1960 → 100% в 2025 (0 п. п.).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":100,"last":100}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"ВВП на душу (ППС): 45 961 долл. ППС в 1990 → 139 593 долл. ППС в 2025 (×3).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":45961.0598,"last":139592.6122}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Самое быстрое снижение показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 1959–1969: 6,12 → 3,22. В эти же годы: рождения 61,5 тыс. → 45,1 тыс.; доля горожан 100% → 100%; по остальным за эти годы данных нет.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1959,"to":1969,"start":6.121,"end":3.222,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1959,"to":1969,"start":61.53,"end":45.1},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":1969,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2015–2025): рождаемость (СКР) 0,98 → 0,87; рождения 47,6 тыс. → 29,9 тыс.; интернет 79% → 94,4%; доля горожан 100% → 100%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 109 894 долл. ППС → 139 593 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":0.977,"end":0.87,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":47.63,"end":29.864},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":79.013,"end":94.3776},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":109894.0413,"end":139592.6122}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2025, 76 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в одну сторону (r = 0,65); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,72). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.647,"r_changes":0.717,"effective_pairs_changes":56,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и интернет (1990–2024, 35 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,97); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = −0,10). Похоже на общий тренд: оба меняются со временем, но не синхронно год к году.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.972,"r_changes":-0.096,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и ВВП на душу (ППС) (1990–2025, 36 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,89); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,17). Похоже на общий тренд: оба меняются со временем, но не синхронно год к году.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.89,"r_changes":0.167,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 12 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — ни в одном; медиана расхождения −32%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-50.46},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.65,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-42.96},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.458,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-35.45},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.51,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-37.67},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.385,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-32.04},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.385,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-32.04},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.554,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-39.43},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.326,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-29.02},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.287,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-26.87},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.283,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-26.64},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.244,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-24.34},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.06,"actual":0.87,"gap_pct":-17.92}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-32.04,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 1,15 (+32% к 2025), 2100 — 1,36 (+57% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 0,86.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":0.87},"values":{"2050":1.152,"2100":1.363},"low_2100":0.863}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 12 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — ни в одном; медиана расхождения −16%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":48.575,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-13.35},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":51.897,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-18.89},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":45.739,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-7.97},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":48.815,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-13.77},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":44.791,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-6.03},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":46.924,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-10.3},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":56.039,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-24.89},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":60.666,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-30.62},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":50.731,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-17.03},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":50.078,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-15.95},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":49.722,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-15.35},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":42.999,"actual":29.864,"gap_pct":-30.55}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-15.65,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 1998 года не ждал сегодняшнего уровня (29,9 тыс., 2025) до конца своего горизонта (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":29.864,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 2019 года не ждал сегодняшнего уровня (29,9 тыс., 2025) до конца своего горизонта (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":29.864,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Национальная статистика за 2025 год: 29,9 тыс. — на 40% ниже среднего варианта ООН-2024 (49,8 тыс.) и ниже его 95%-интервала.","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":49.84,"actual_births_k":29.864,"gap_pct":-40.1,"un_lower95_births_k":39.39,"below_lower95":true,"source":"Singapore Department of Statistics / ICA, SingStat Table M810091 'Births And Fertility Rates, Annual' (last updated 03/06/2026)","source_url":"https://tablebuilder.singstat.gov.sg/api/table/tabledata/M810091"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 32,1 тыс. (+7% к 2025), 2100 — 27,5 тыс. (−8% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 9,09 тыс.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":29.864},"values":{"2050":32.05,"2100":27.46},"low_2100":9.087}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=SGP&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}