{"locations":[{"code":"NZL","name":"Новая Зеландия","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/NZL/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 3,55 в 1950 → 1,55 в 2025 (−56%). Максимум — 4,31 в 1961; последнее значение на 64% ниже. Порог: ниже 2,1 — с 2011. Переломы тренда около 1960 и 1978 года: +0,08 → −0,12 → −0,01 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":3.552,"last":1.55,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":4.306},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2011,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1960,"slope_before":0.0811,"slope_after":-0.122},{"year":1978,"slope_before":-0.122,"slope_after":-0.00688}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 49,1 тыс. в 1950 → 57,7 тыс. в 2025 (+18%). Максимум — 65 тыс. в 1961; последнее значение на 11% ниже. Переломы тренда около 1962 и 1980 года: +1,4 тыс. → −0,63 тыс. → +0,16 тыс. в год.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":49.1,"last":57.705,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":65.03},"breaks":[{"year":1962,"slope_before":1.4,"slope_after":-0.633},{"year":1980,"slope_before":-0.633,"slope_after":0.156}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Интернет: 0% в 1990 → 93,5% в 2024 (+94 п. п.). Пороги: выше 10% — с 1997, выше 50% — с 2001, выше 90% — с 2020. Быстрее всего рос в 1996–2001: 8% → 53,2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":93.5193,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1996,"to":2001,"start":8.04,"end":53.241}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Доля горожан: 62,4% в 1960 → 84% в 2025 (+22 п. п.). Порог: выше 75% — с 1969. Переломы тренда около 1972 и 2005 года: +1,8 → +0,12 → −0,15 в год.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":62.3756,"last":83.9979,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1969,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":1.82,"slope_after":0.124},{"year":2005,"slope_before":0.124,"slope_after":-0.146}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"ВВП на душу (ППС): 30 786 долл. ППС в 1990 → 48 233 долл. ППС в 2025 (+57%). Минимум — 29 014 долл. ППС в 1991; с тех пор +66%. Перелом тренда около 2005 года: изменение замедлилось (+781 → +467 в год).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":30785.7018,"last":48232.6652,"trough":{"year":1991,"value":29014.1499},"breaks":[{"year":2005,"slope_before":781,"slope_after":467}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Самое быстрое снижение показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 1963–1973: 4,05 → 2,74. В эти же годы: рождения 64,2 тыс. → 59,9 тыс.; доля горожан 65,7% → 82,3%; по остальным за эти годы данных нет.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":4.046,"end":2.738,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":64.19,"end":59.87},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":65.6697,"end":82.263},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2015–2025): рождаемость (СКР) 1,98 → 1,55; рождения 59,9 тыс. → 57,7 тыс.; интернет 85,2% → 93,5%; доля горожан 85,2% → 84%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 45 097 долл. ППС → 48 233 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.982,"end":1.55,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":59.85,"end":57.705},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":85.2,"end":93.5193},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":85.1519,"end":83.9979},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":45097.0165,"end":48232.6652}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2025, 76 лет): уровни почти не связаны (r = 0,25); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,86). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.25,"r_changes":0.856,"effective_pairs_changes":45,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и интернет (1990–2024, 34 года): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,43); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = −0,12).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.427,"r_changes":-0.119,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и доля горожан (1960–2025, 66 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,92); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,10). Похоже на общий тренд: оба меняются со временем, но не синхронно год к году.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.917,"r_changes":0.095,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и ВВП на душу (ППС) (1990–2025, 36 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,62); годовые изменения связаны слабо (r = 0,36).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.616,"r_changes":0.355,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 12 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — ни в одном; медиана расхождения −14%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.05,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-20.6},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.82,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-10.56},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.953,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-16.65},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-12.01},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-12.01},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.882,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-13.51},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.127,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-23.47},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.939,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-16.05},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.938,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-16.01},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.925,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-15.44},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.847,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-11.87},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.746,"actual":1.55,"gap_pct":-11.23}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-14.47,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 1,62 (+4% к 2025), 2100 — 1,63 (+5% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 1,13.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.55},"values":{"2050":1.616,"2100":1.625},"low_2100":1.125}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 7 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 4; медиана расхождения −2,6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":60.881,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":-3.77},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":49.421,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":18.54},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":53.291,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":9.94},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":54.546,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":7.41},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":56.284,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":4.09},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":58.583,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":0},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":67.593,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":-13.33},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":62.94,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":-6.92},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":60.335,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":-2.9},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":62.499,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":-6.26},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":59.977,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":-2.32},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":63.615,"actual":57.705,"gap_pct":-9.29}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-2.61,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Национальная статистика за 2025 год: 57,7 тыс. — на 1% ниже среднего варианта ООН-2024 (58,5 тыс.).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":58.49,"actual_births_k":57.705,"gap_pct":-1.3,"un_lower95_births_k":48.8,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Stats NZ, Births and deaths: Year ended December 2025 (released 17 Feb 2026), Table 1","source_url":"https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/births-and-deaths-year-ended-december-2025-including-abridged-period-life-table/"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 56,1 тыс. (−3% к 2025), 2100 — 50,3 тыс. (−13% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 21,4 тыс.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":57.705},"values":{"2050":56.14,"2100":50.34},"low_2100":21.4}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=NZL&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}