{"locations":[{"code":"NOR","name":"Норвегия","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/NOR/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 2,52 в 1950 → 1,48 в 2025 (−41%). Максимум — 2,96 в 1964; последнее значение на 50% ниже. Пороги: ниже 2,1 — с 1975, ниже 1,5 — с 2022. Переломы тренда около 1965 и 1977 года: +0,03 → −0,1 → 0 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.523,"last":1.48,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":2.962},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1975,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2022,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.0311,"slope_after":-0.0967},{"year":1977,"slope_before":-0.0967,"slope_after":-0.00413}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 62,8 тыс. в 1950 → 55,4 тыс. в 2025 (−12%). Максимум — 67,7 тыс. в 1969; последнее значение на 18% ниже. Переломы тренда около 1970 и 1976 года: +0,28 тыс. → −1,99 тыс. → +0,06 тыс. в год.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":62.83,"last":55.401,"peak":{"year":1969,"value":67.72},"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":0.285,"slope_after":-1.99},{"year":1976,"slope_before":-1.99,"slope_after":0.0646}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Интернет: 0,7% в 1990 → 99% в 2024 (+98 п. п.). Пороги: выше 10% — с 1996, выше 50% — с 2000, выше 90% — с 2008. Быстрее всего рос в 1998–2003: 22,6% → 78,1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.707,"last":99,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1996,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2008,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1998,"to":2003,"start":22.6,"end":78.13}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Доля горожан: 48,7% в 1960 → 83,6% в 2025 (+35 п. п.). Пороги: выше 50% — с 1962, выше 75% — с 1998. Перелом тренда около 1971 года: изменение замедлилось (+1,9 → +0,26 в год).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":48.7021,"last":83.5706,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1962,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":1998,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1971,"slope_before":1.88,"slope_after":0.258}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"ВВП на душу (ППС): 56 608 долл. ППС в 1990 → 95 173 долл. ППС в 2025 (+68%). Переломы тренда около 2006 и 2012 года: +1 866 → −275 → +816 в год.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":56608.2548,"last":95173.4308,"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":1870,"slope_after":-275},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-275,"slope_after":816}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Самое быстрое снижение показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 1967–1977: 2,79 → 1,76. В эти же годы: рождения 66,2 тыс. → 51 тыс.; доля горожан 60,5% → 69,7%; по остальным за эти годы данных нет.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":2.786,"end":1.759,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":66.18,"end":50.95},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":60.5094,"end":69.7417},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2015–2025): рождаемость (СКР) 1,73 → 1,48; рождения 58,6 тыс. → 55,4 тыс.; интернет 96,8% → 99%; доля горожан 81,2% → 83,6%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 87 688 долл. ППС → 95 173 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.728,"end":1.48,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":58.61,"end":55.401},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":96.8103,"end":99},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":81.2378,"end":83.5706},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":87688.1197,"end":95173.4308}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2025, 76 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в одну сторону (r = 0,81); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,86). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.81,"r_changes":0.865,"effective_pairs_changes":38,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и интернет (1990–2024, 35 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,51); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,21).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.512,"r_changes":0.208,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и доля горожан (1960–2025, 66 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,89); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = −0,15). Похоже на общий тренд: оба меняются со временем, но не синхронно год к году.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.888,"r_changes":-0.149,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и ВВП на душу (ППС) (1990–2025, 36 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,65); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = −0,01).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.651,"r_changes":-0.012,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 12 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — ни в одном; медиана расхождения −21%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.98,"actual":1.4622,"gap_pct":-26.15},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.8,"actual":1.4622,"gap_pct":-18.77},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.801,"actual":1.4622,"gap_pct":-18.81},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.4622,"gap_pct":-20.96},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.4622,"gap_pct":-20.96},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.4622,"gap_pct":-20.96},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.986,"actual":1.4622,"gap_pct":-26.37},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.932,"actual":1.4622,"gap_pct":-24.32},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.823,"actual":1.4622,"gap_pct":-19.79},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.833,"actual":1.4622,"gap_pct":-20.23},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.7,"actual":1.4622,"gap_pct":-13.99},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.522,"actual":1.48,"gap_pct":-2.76}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-20.59,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 1,50 (+1% к 2025), 2100 — 1,55 (+5% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 1,05.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.48},"values":{"2050":1.498,"2100":1.551},"low_2100":1.051}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 9 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 3; медиана расхождения −13%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":56.942,"actual":53.3777,"gap_pct":-6.26},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":52.976,"actual":53.3777,"gap_pct":0.76},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":53.319,"actual":53.3777,"gap_pct":0.11},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":58.395,"actual":53.3777,"gap_pct":-8.59},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":60.328,"actual":53.3777,"gap_pct":-11.52},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":61.92,"actual":53.3777,"gap_pct":-13.8},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":65.727,"actual":53.3777,"gap_pct":-18.79},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":68.328,"actual":53.3777,"gap_pct":-21.88},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":66.824,"actual":53.3777,"gap_pct":-20.12},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":66.535,"actual":53.3777,"gap_pct":-19.78},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":61.733,"actual":53.3777,"gap_pct":-13.53},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":55.275,"actual":55.401,"gap_pct":0.23}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-12.52,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Национальная статистика за 2025 год: 55,4 тыс. — на 5% выше среднего варианта ООН-2024 (53 тыс.).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":52.98,"actual_births_k":55.401,"gap_pct":4.6,"un_lower95_births_k":46.21,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Statistics Norway tables 05803 (births) and 04232 (TFR)","source_url":"https://data.ssb.no/api/v0/en/table/05803"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 51,1 тыс. (−8% к 2025), 2100 — 44,3 тыс. (−20% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 18 тыс.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":55.401},"values":{"2050":51.1,"2100":44.29},"low_2100":17.97}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=NOR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}