{"locations":[{"code":"NLD","name":"Нидерланды","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/NLD/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 3,10 в 1950 → 1,42 в 2025 (−54%). Максимум — 3,21 в 1961; последнее значение на 56% ниже. Пороги: ниже 2,1 — с 1973, ниже 1,5 — с 2023. Переломы тренда около 1965 и 1976 года: +0,01 → −0,14 → 0 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":3.104,"last":1.418,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":3.207},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1973,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2023,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.00633,"slope_after":-0.143},{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.143,"slope_after":0.00128}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 230 тыс. в 1950 → 167 тыс. в 2025 (−28%). Максимум — 250 тыс. в 1964; последнее значение на 33% ниже. Переломы тренда около 1969 и 1975 года: +0,86 тыс. → −9,67 тыс. → −0,16 тыс. в год.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":230,"last":166.588,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":250.3},"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.855,"slope_after":-9.67},{"year":1975,"slope_before":-9.67,"slope_after":-0.158}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Интернет: 0,3% в 1990 → 97% в 2024 (+97 п. п.). Пороги: выше 10% — с 1997, выше 50% — с 2002, выше 90% — с 2010. Быстрее всего рос в 1997–2002: 14,1% → 61,3%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.334,"last":97.0068,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2010,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1997,"to":2002,"start":14.1,"end":61.29}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Доля горожан: 59,9% в 1960 → 95,9% в 2025 (+36 п. п.). Порог: выше 75% — с 1997. Переломы тренда около 1994 и 2003 года: +0,32 → +1,4 → +0,66 в год.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":59.94,"last":95.9386,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1997,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1994,"slope_before":0.317,"slope_after":1.36},{"year":2003,"slope_before":1.36,"slope_after":0.656}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"ВВП на душу (ППС): 43 128 долл. ППС в 1990 → 71 378 долл. ППС в 2025 (+66%). Переломы тренда около 2007 и 2013 года: +1 186 → −96 → +860 в год.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":43128.3072,"last":71378.4856,"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":1190,"slope_after":-96.4},{"year":2013,"slope_before":-96.4,"slope_after":860}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Самое быстрое снижение показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 1964–1974: 3,15 → 1,77. В эти же годы: рождения 250 тыс. → 186 тыс.; доля горожан 60,9% → 64,2%; по остальным за эти годы данных нет.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":3.153,"end":1.774,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":250.3,"end":185.8},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":60.858,"end":64.2199},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2015–2025): рождаемость (СКР) 1,66 → 1,42; рождения 172 тыс. → 167 тыс.; интернет 91,7% → 97%; доля горожан 90,3% → 95,9%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 63 081 долл. ППС → 71 378 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.657,"end":1.418,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":172.4,"end":166.588},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":91.7241,"end":97.0068},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":90.2788,"end":95.9386},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":63081.4083,"end":71378.4856}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2025, 76 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в одну сторону (r = 0,92); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,90). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.918,"r_changes":0.903,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и интернет (1990–2024, 35 лет): уровни почти не связаны (r = 0,24); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,13).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":0.238,"r_changes":0.134,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и доля горожан (1960–2025, 66 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,53); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,06).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.528,"r_changes":0.061,"effective_pairs_changes":39,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и ВВП на душу (ППС) (1990–2025, 36 лет): уровни почти не связаны (r = −0,09); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,25).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.089,"r_changes":0.245,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 12 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — ни в одном; медиана расхождения −15%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.72,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-13.03},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.611,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-7.14},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.766,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-15.29},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.766,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-15.29},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.795,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-16.66},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.847,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-19.01},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.872,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-20.09},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.81,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-17.35},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.784,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-16.15},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.764,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-15.2},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.68,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-10.96},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.641,"actual":1.418,"gap_pct":-13.59}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-15.29,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 1,52 (+7% к 2025), 2100 — 1,57 (+11% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 1,07.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.418},"values":{"2050":1.515,"2100":1.568},"low_2100":1.068}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 10 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 2; медиана расхождения −5,2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":159.384,"actual":171.4574,"gap_pct":7.58},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":161.788,"actual":171.4574,"gap_pct":5.98},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":179.792,"actual":171.4574,"gap_pct":-4.64},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":179.818,"actual":171.4574,"gap_pct":-4.65},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":179.49,"actual":171.4574,"gap_pct":-4.48},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":189.278,"actual":171.4574,"gap_pct":-9.42},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":186.112,"actual":171.4574,"gap_pct":-7.87},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":182.002,"actual":171.4574,"gap_pct":-5.79},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":183.491,"actual":171.4574,"gap_pct":-6.56},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":184.195,"actual":171.4574,"gap_pct":-6.92},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":175.403,"actual":171.4574,"gap_pct":-2.25},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":183.966,"actual":166.588,"gap_pct":-9.45}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-5.22,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 1998 года ждал такого уровня (167 тыс.) уже около 2001 года — реальность отстаёт от него на 24 года.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":166.588,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2001,"years":24,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Национальная статистика за 2025 год: 167 тыс. — на 4% ниже среднего варианта ООН-2024 (174 тыс.).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":174.2,"actual_births_k":166.588,"gap_pct":-4.4,"un_lower95_births_k":153.2,"below_lower95":false,"source":"CBS StatLine 85722NED Geboorte; kerncijfers (updated 21 Jul 2026)","source_url":"https://opendata.cbs.nl/ODataApi/odata/85722NED/TypedDataSet"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 164 тыс. (−2% к 2025), 2100 — 149 тыс. (−11% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 60,6 тыс.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":166.588},"values":{"2050":164,"2100":148.5},"low_2100":60.63}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=NLD&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}