{"locations":[{"code":"ITA","name":"Италия","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/ITA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 2,52 в 1950 → 1,14 в 2025 (−55%). Максимум — 2,66 в 1964; последнее значение на 57% ниже. Пороги: ниже 2,1 — с 1976, ниже 1,5 — с 1984. Переломы тренда около 1969 и 1986 года: +0,01 → −0,07 → 0 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.523,"last":1.14,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":2.663},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1976,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":1984,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.0117,"slope_after":-0.0735},{"year":1986,"slope_before":-0.0735,"slope_after":-0.0000691}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 913 тыс. в 1950 → 355 тыс. в 2025 (−61%). Максимум — 1,01 млн в 1964; последнее значение на 65% ниже. Переломы тренда около 1968 и 1982 года: +6,87 тыс. → −26 тыс. → −4,3 тыс. в год.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":912.8,"last":355.435,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":1006},"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":6.87,"slope_after":-26},{"year":1982,"slope_before":-26,"slope_after":-4.3}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Интернет: 0% в 1990 → 89,2% в 2024 (+89 п. п.). Пороги: выше 10% — с 1999, выше 50% — с 2010. Быстрее всего рос в 1996–2001: 1% → 27,2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.0175,"last":89.2207,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1999,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2010,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1996,"to":2001,"start":1.02,"end":27.2221}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Доля горожан: 59,3% в 1960 → 69,7% в 2025 (+10 п. п.). Переломы тренда около 1975 и 1998 года: +0,46 → +0,02 → +0,12 в год.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":59.2894,"last":69.6809,"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":0.465,"slope_after":0.0188},{"year":1998,"slope_before":0.0188,"slope_after":0.117}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"ВВП на душу (ППС): 42 657 долл. ППС в 1990 → 53 606 долл. ППС в 2025 (+26%). Переломы тренда около 2006 и 2014 года: +678 → −861 → +640 в год.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":42656.7445,"last":53606.079,"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":678,"slope_after":-861},{"year":2014,"slope_before":-861,"slope_after":640}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Самое быстрое снижение показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 1974–1984: 2,29 → 1,46. В эти же годы: рождения 865 тыс. → 590 тыс.; доля горожан 65,7% → 66,9%; по остальным за эти годы данных нет.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1974,"to":1984,"start":2.292,"end":1.458,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1974,"to":1984,"start":865.4,"end":589.7},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1974,"to":1984,"start":65.663,"end":66.8645},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2015–2025): рождаемость (СКР) 1,35 → 1,14; рождения 480 тыс. → 355 тыс.; интернет 58,1% → 89,2%; доля горожан 69,6% → 69,7%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 47 312 долл. ППС → 53 606 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.345,"end":1.14,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":479.6,"end":355.435},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":58.1417,"end":89.2207},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":69.61,"end":69.6809},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":47311.8255,"end":53606.079}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2025, 76 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в одну сторону (r = 0,98); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,98). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.977,"r_changes":0.978,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и интернет (1990–2024, 35 лет): уровни почти не связаны (r = 0,21); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,31).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":0.209,"r_changes":0.311,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и доля горожан (1960–2025, 66 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,84); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,21). Похоже на общий тренд: оба меняются со временем, но не синхронно год к году.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.84,"r_changes":0.209,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и ВВП на душу (ППС) (1990–2025, 36 лет): уровни почти не связаны (r = 0,02); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,08).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":0.017,"r_changes":0.076,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 12 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — ни в одном; медиана расхождения −18%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.47,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-17.54},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.346,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-9.94},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.451,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-16.46},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.515,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-19.99},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.485,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-18.37},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.485,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-18.37},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.634,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-25.81},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.614,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-24.89},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.544,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-21.49},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.542,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-21.39},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.296,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-6.47},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.316,"actual":1.14,"gap_pct":-13.37}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-18.37,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 1,35 (+18% к 2025), 2100 — 1,48 (+30% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 0,98.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.14},"values":{"2050":1.349,"2100":1.478},"low_2100":0.978}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 10 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 2; медиана расхождения −13%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":386.976,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":0.42},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":370.087,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":5.01},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":400.54,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":-2.98},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":429.906,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":-9.61},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":458.383,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":-15.22},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":465.743,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":-16.56},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":519.477,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":-25.19},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":531.514,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":-26.89},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":482.462,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":-19.45},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":469.987,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":-17.31},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":423.367,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":-8.21},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":402.724,"actual":355.435,"gap_pct":-11.74}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-13.48,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 1998 года ждал сегодняшнего уровня (355 тыс., 2025) только около 2037 года — реальность обогнала его на 12 лет.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":355.435,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2037,"years":12,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Национальная статистика за 2025 год: 355 тыс. — на 7% ниже среднего варианта ООН-2024 (383 тыс.).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":382.5,"actual_births_k":355.435,"gap_pct":-7.1,"un_lower95_births_k":327,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Eurostat demo_gind (births) / demo_find (TFR), retrieved 2026-10-01","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/demo_gind?format=JSON&lang=EN&indic_de=LBIRTH&sinceTimePeriod=2015&geo=IT"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 342 тыс. (−4% к 2025), 2100 — 249 тыс. (−30% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 88,8 тыс.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":355.435},"values":{"2050":341.8,"2100":249},"low_2100":88.77}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=ITA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}