{"locations":[{"code":"IRL","name":"Ирландия","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/IRL/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 3,50 в 1950 → 1,50 в 2025 (−57%). Максимум — 4,08 в 1964; последнее значение на 63% ниже. Порог: ниже 2,1 — с 1991. Переломы тренда около 1970 и 1990 года: +0,03 → −0,1 → −0,01 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":3.497,"last":1.5,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":4.079},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1991,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":0.0288,"slope_after":-0.097},{"year":1990,"slope_before":-0.097,"slope_after":-0.0102}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 66,9 тыс. в 1950 → 54,3 тыс. в 2025 (−19%). Максимум — 76 тыс. в 2009; последнее значение на 29% ниже. Переломы тренда около 2001 и 2009 года: −0,25 тыс. → +2,51 тыс. → −1,51 тыс. в год.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":66.94,"last":54.293,"peak":{"year":2009,"value":76.01},"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":-0.253,"slope_after":2.51},{"year":2009,"slope_before":2.51,"slope_after":-1.51}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Интернет: 0% в 1990 → 97,2% в 2024 (+97 п. п.). Пороги: выше 10% — с 1999, выше 50% — с 2006, выше 90% — с 2020. Быстрее всего рос в 2002–2007: 25,9% → 61,2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":97.1877,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1999,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2006,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2002,"to":2007,"start":25.85,"end":61.1583}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Доля горожан: 44,9% в 1960 → 64,6% в 2025 (+20 п. п.). Порог: выше 50% — с 1967. Переломы тренда около 1969 и 1975 года: +0,74 → +0,44 → +0,21 в год.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":44.8696,"last":64.5876,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1967,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.743,"slope_after":0.437},{"year":1975,"slope_before":0.437,"slope_after":0.212}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"ВВП на душу (ППС): 29 505 долл. ППС в 1990 → 131 338 долл. ППС в 2025 (×4,5). Переломы тренда около 2006 и 2012 года: +2 512 → −1 352 → +5 716 в год.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":29504.8773,"last":131338.4447,"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":2510,"slope_after":-1350},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-1350,"slope_after":5720}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Самое быстрое снижение показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 1979–1989: 3,21 → 2,08. В эти же годы: рождения 72,5 тыс. → 52,5 тыс.; интернет 0% (1990); доля горожан 55,2% → 56,8%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 29 505 долл. ППС (1990).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1979,"to":1989,"start":3.214,"end":2.081,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1979,"to":1989,"start":72.53,"end":52.46},{"id":"internet_users","year":1990,"value":0},{"id":"urban_population","from":1979,"to":1989,"start":55.1962,"end":56.7818},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1990,"value":29504.8773}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2015–2025): рождаемость (СКР) 1,86 → 1,50; рождения 65,6 тыс. → 54,3 тыс.; интернет 83,5% → 97,2%; доля горожан 62,6% → 64,6%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 80 816 долл. ППС → 131 338 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.861,"end":1.5,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":65.61,"end":54.293},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":83.4948,"end":97.1877},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":62.6392,"end":64.5876},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":80815.6415,"end":131338.4447}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2025, 76 лет): уровни почти не связаны (r = 0,39); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,71). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.386,"r_changes":0.707,"effective_pairs_changes":39,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и интернет (1990–2024, 35 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,50); годовые изменения связаны слабо (r = 0,37).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.505,"r_changes":0.372,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и доля горожан (1960–2025, 66 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,92); годовые изменения связаны слабо (r = 0,42).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.916,"r_changes":0.416,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и ВВП на душу (ППС) (1990–2025, 36 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,82); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,13). Похоже на общий тренд: оба меняются со временем, но не синхронно год к году.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.817,"r_changes":0.129,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 12 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — ни в одном; медиана расхождения −16%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.6031,"gap_pct":-23.66},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.078,"actual":1.6031,"gap_pct":-22.85},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.6031,"gap_pct":-13.35},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.6031,"gap_pct":-13.35},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.6031,"gap_pct":-13.35},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.6031,"gap_pct":-13.35},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.098,"actual":1.6031,"gap_pct":-23.59},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.987,"actual":1.6031,"gap_pct":-19.32},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.986,"actual":1.6031,"gap_pct":-19.28},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.966,"actual":1.6031,"gap_pct":-18.46},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.786,"actual":1.6031,"gap_pct":-10.24},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.754,"actual":1.5,"gap_pct":-14.48}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-16.47,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 1,60 (+7% к 2025), 2100 — 1,61 (+7% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 1,11.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.5},"values":{"2050":1.6,"2100":1.607},"low_2100":1.107}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 11 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 1; медиана расхождения −6,6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":55.799,"actual":55.0259,"gap_pct":-1.39},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":59.818,"actual":55.0259,"gap_pct":-8.01},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":53.872,"actual":55.0259,"gap_pct":2.14},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":55.496,"actual":55.0259,"gap_pct":-0.85},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":61.442,"actual":55.0259,"gap_pct":-10.44},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":61.386,"actual":55.0259,"gap_pct":-10.36},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":66.242,"actual":55.0259,"gap_pct":-16.93},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":64.327,"actual":55.0259,"gap_pct":-14.46},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":58.559,"actual":55.0259,"gap_pct":-6.03},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":59.211,"actual":55.0259,"gap_pct":-7.07},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":56.954,"actual":55.0259,"gap_pct":-3.39},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":55.423,"actual":54.293,"gap_pct":-2.04}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-6.55,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Национальная статистика за 2025 год: 54,3 тыс. — на 3% выше среднего варианта ООН-2024 (52,6 тыс.).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":52.62,"actual_births_k":54.293,"gap_pct":3.2,"un_lower95_births_k":45.69,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Eurostat demo_gind (births) / demo_find (TFR), retrieved 2026-10-01","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/demo_gind?format=JSON&lang=EN&indic_de=LBIRTH&sinceTimePeriod=2015&geo=IE"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 58,3 тыс. (+7% к 2025), 2100 — 43,4 тыс. (−20% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 17 тыс.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":54.293},"values":{"2050":58.34,"2100":43.36},"low_2100":16.96}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=IRL&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}