{"locations":[{"code":"HKG","name":"Гонконг","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/HKG/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 4,26 в 1950 → 0,73 в 2025 (−83%). Максимум — 5,18 в 1962; последнее значение на 86% ниже. Пороги: ниже 2,1 — с 1980, ниже 1,5 — с 1986, ниже 1,0 — с 2020. Переломы тренда около 1962 и 1983 года: +0,07 → −0,18 → −0,01 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":4.255,"last":0.733,"peak":{"year":1962,"value":5.177},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1980,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":1986,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1,"year":2020,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1962,"slope_before":0.0749,"slope_after":-0.178},{"year":1983,"slope_before":-0.178,"slope_after":-0.0132}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 78,8 тыс. в 1950 → 31,1 тыс. в 2025 (−61%). Максимум — 153 тыс. в 1965; последнее значение на 80% ниже.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":78.77,"last":31.053,"peak":{"year":1965,"value":153.4}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Интернет: 0% в 1990 → 95,8% в 2024 (+96 п. п.). Пороги: выше 10% — с 1997, выше 50% — с 2003, выше 90% — с 2018. Быстрее всего рос в 1998–2003: 14,5% → 52,2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":95.7554,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2003,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2018,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1998,"to":2003,"start":14.5,"end":52.2}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Доля горожан: 85,2% в 1960 → 100% в 2025 (+15 п. п.). Переломы тренда около 1985 и 1991 года: +0,33 → +1,2 → 0 в год.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":85.2,"last":100,"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":0.331,"slope_after":1.19},{"year":1991,"slope_before":1.19,"slope_after":0.00113}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"ВВП на душу (ППС): 31 599 долл. ППС в 1990 → 68 725 долл. ППС в 2025 (+117%). Переломы тренда около 2001 и 2013 года: +575 → +1 847 → +385 в год.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":31598.7265,"last":68724.5566,"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":575,"slope_after":1850},{"year":2013,"slope_before":1850,"slope_after":385}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Самое быстрое снижение показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 1965–1975: 4,92 → 2,63. В эти же годы: рождения 153 тыс. → 80,2 тыс.; доля горожан 85,9% → 89,5%; по остальным за эти годы данных нет.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":4.923,"end":2.627,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":153.4,"end":80.16},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":85.9387,"end":89.5174},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2015–2025): рождаемость (СКР) 1,23 → 0,73; рождения 79,8 тыс. → 31,1 тыс.; интернет 84,9% → 95,8%; доля горожан 100% → 100%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 62 780 долл. ППС → 68 725 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.227,"end":0.733,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":79.75,"end":31.053},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":84.9484,"end":95.7554},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":62779.7552,"end":68724.5566}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2025, 76 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в одну сторону (r = 0,67); годовые изменения связаны слабо (r = 0,26).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.668,"r_changes":0.255,"effective_pairs_changes":72,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и интернет (1990–2024, 35 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,55); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = −0,21).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.549,"r_changes":-0.212,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и доля горожан (1960–2025, 66 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,92); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,01). Похоже на общий тренд: оба меняются со временем, но не синхронно год к году.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.924,"r_changes":0.011,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и ВВП на душу (ППС) (1990–2025, 36 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,43); годовые изменения связаны слабо (r = 0,43).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.425,"r_changes":0.425,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 12 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — ни в одном; медиана расхождения −44%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.6,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-51.79},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.556,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-50.43},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.47,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-47.53},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.17,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-34.08},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.091,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-29.3},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.109,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-30.45},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.381,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-44.15},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.29,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-40.21},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.377,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-43.99},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.422,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-45.76},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.413,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-45.41},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":0.794,"actual":0.733,"gap_pct":-7.68}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-44.07,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 0,96 (+31% к 2025), 2100 — 1,20 (+63% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 0,70.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":0.733},"values":{"2050":0.961,"2100":1.197},"low_2100":0.697}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 12 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — ни в одном; медиана расхождения −38%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":66.45,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-36.34},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":77.193,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-45.2},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":74.591,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-43.29},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":58.595,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-27.81},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":55.424,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-23.68},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":54.751,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-22.74},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":73.279,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-42.27},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":64.241,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-34.15},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":69.646,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-39.26},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.399,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-48.66},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.332,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-48.62},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":39.824,"actual":31.053,"gap_pct":-22.02}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-37.8,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 1998 года не ждал сегодняшнего уровня (31,1 тыс., 2025) до конца своего горизонта (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":31.053,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 2022 года ждал сегодняшнего уровня (31,1 тыс., 2025) только около 2094 года — реальность обогнала его на 69 лет.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":31.053,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2094,"years":69,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Национальная статистика за 2025 год: 31,1 тыс. — на 20% ниже среднего варианта ООН-2024 (39 тыс.).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":38.96,"actual_births_k":31.053,"gap_pct":-20.3,"un_lower95_births_k":26.32,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) Table 115-01012A (births, release 18 Sep 2026) and Table 115-01011 (TFR, release 3 Aug 2026)","source_url":"https://www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/web_table.html?id=115-01012A"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 20,8 тыс. (−33% к 2025), 2100 — 5,67 тыс. (−82% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 0,61 тыс.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":31.053},"values":{"2050":20.81,"2100":5.667},"low_2100":0.612}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=HKG&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}