{"locations":[{"code":"GRC","name":"Греция","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/GRC/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 2,57 в 1950 → 1,24 в 2024 (−52%). Пороги: ниже 2,1 — с 1982, ниже 1,5 — с 2010. Переломы тренда около 1979 и 1989 года: 0 → −0,1 → 0 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":2.574,"last":1.24,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1982,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2010,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1979,"slope_before":-0.000589,"slope_after":-0.0957},{"year":1989,"slope_before":-0.0957,"slope_after":-0.00226}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 156 тыс. в 1950 → 65,4 тыс. в 2025 (−58%). Максимум — 177 тыс. в 1967; последнее значение на 63% ниже. Переломы тренда около 1980 и 1986 года: −0,39 тыс. → −5,25 тыс. → −0,96 тыс. в год.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":155.7,"last":65.439,"peak":{"year":1967,"value":176.6},"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":-0.388,"slope_after":-5.25},{"year":1986,"slope_before":-5.25,"slope_after":-0.958}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Интернет: 0% в 1990 → 86,3% в 2024 (+86 п. п.). Пороги: выше 10% — с 2001, выше 50% — с 2011. Быстрее всего рос в 2010–2015: 44,4% → 66,8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":86.2697,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2010,"to":2015,"start":44.4,"end":66.835}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Доля горожан: 55,8% в 1960 → 79,2% в 2025 (+23 п. п.). Порог: выше 75% — с 2007. Перелом тренда около 1976 года: изменение замедлилось (+0,81 → +0,18 в год).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":55.8446,"last":79.2246,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":2007,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":0.811,"slope_after":0.184}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"ВВП на душу (ППС): 26 916 долл. ППС в 1990 → 38 219 долл. ППС в 2025 (+42%). Переломы тренда около 2008 и 2014 года: +918 → −1 842 → +731 в год.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":26916.3125,"last":38218.7216,"breaks":[{"year":2008,"slope_before":918,"slope_after":-1840},{"year":2014,"slope_before":-1840,"slope_after":731}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Самое быстрое снижение показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 1979–1989: 2,36 → 1,49. В эти же годы: рождения 153 тыс. → 109 тыс.; интернет 0% (1990); доля горожан 69,1% → 71,3%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 26 916 долл. ППС (1990).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1979,"to":1989,"start":2.356,"end":1.485,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1979,"to":1989,"start":153.2,"end":109},{"id":"internet_users","year":1990,"value":0},{"id":"urban_population","from":1979,"to":1989,"start":69.132,"end":71.3458},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1990,"value":26916.3125}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2014–2024): рождаемость (СКР) 1,30 → 1,24; рождения 92,4 тыс. → 68,3 тыс.; интернет 63,2% → 86,3%; доля горожан 77,3% → 79%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 31 213 долл. ППС → 37 474 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":1.298,"end":1.24,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":92.39,"end":68.309},{"id":"internet_users","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":63.2073,"end":86.2697},{"id":"urban_population","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":77.313,"end":78.9968},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":31213.3765,"end":37474.2798}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2024, 75 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в одну сторону (r = 0,94); годовые изменения связаны слабо (r = 0,40).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"years":75,"r_levels":0.938,"r_changes":0.403,"effective_pairs_changes":74,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и интернет (1990–2024, 35 лет): уровни почти не связаны (r = −0,31); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = −0,07).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.306,"r_changes":-0.071,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и доля горожан (1960–2024, 65 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,83); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,51). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2024,"years":65,"r_levels":-0.829,"r_changes":0.514,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и ВВП на душу (ППС) (1990–2024, 35 лет): уровни почти не связаны (r = 0,06); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,16).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":0.058,"r_changes":0.156,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 7 из 11 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 4; медиана расхождения −4,6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.42,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":-4.56},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.342,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":0.98},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.36,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":-0.35},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.355,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":0.01},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.425,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":-4.9},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.455,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":-6.86},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.61,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":-15.83},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.571,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":-13.74},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.303,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":4.01},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.302,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":4.09},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":1.38,"actual":1.24,"gap_pct":-10.14}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-4.56,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 1,41 (+14% к 2024), 2100 — 1,50 (+21% к 2024); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 1,00.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":1.24},"values":{"2050":1.413,"2100":1.496},"low_2100":0.996}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 11 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 1; медиана расхождения −11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":76.387,"actual":75.4787,"gap_pct":-1.19},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.87,"actual":75.4787,"gap_pct":-4.3},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":83.812,"actual":75.4787,"gap_pct":-9.94},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":90.629,"actual":75.4787,"gap_pct":-16.72},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":91.7,"actual":75.4787,"gap_pct":-17.69},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":93.638,"actual":75.4787,"gap_pct":-19.39},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":105.514,"actual":75.4787,"gap_pct":-28.47},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":94.95,"actual":75.4787,"gap_pct":-20.51},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":79.989,"actual":75.4787,"gap_pct":-5.64},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":80.717,"actual":75.4787,"gap_pct":-6.49},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":71.307,"actual":75.4787,"gap_pct":5.85},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":74.942,"actual":65.439,"gap_pct":-12.68}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-11.31,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Национальная статистика за 2025 год: 65,4 тыс. — на 4% ниже среднего варианта ООН-2024 (68,2 тыс.).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":68.15,"actual_births_k":65.439,"gap_pct":-4,"un_lower95_births_k":57.61,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Eurostat demo_gind (births) / demo_find (TFR), retrieved 2026-10-01","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/demo_gind?format=JSON&lang=EN&indic_de=LBIRTH&sinceTimePeriod=2015&geo=EL"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 67,2 тыс. (+3% к 2025), 2100 — 44 тыс. (−33% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 16,2 тыс.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":65.439},"values":{"2050":67.18,"2100":43.99},"low_2100":16.23}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=GRC&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}